On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Nonequilibrium arrhythmic states and transitions in a mathematical model for diffuse fibrosis in human cardiac tissue

We present a comprehensive numerical study of spiral-and scroll-wave dynamics in a state-of-the-art mathematical model for human ventricular tissue with fiber rotation, transmural heterogeneity, myocytes, and fibroblasts. Our mathematical model introduces fibroblasts randomly, to mimic diffuse fibrosis, in the ten Tusscher-Noble-Noble-Panfilov (TNNP) model for human ventricular tissue; the passive fibroblasts in our model do not exhibit an action potential in the absence of coupling with myocytes; and we allow for a coupling between nearby myocytes and fibroblasts. Our study of a single myocyte-fibroblast (MF) composite, with a single myocyte coupled to N-f fibroblasts via a gap-junctional conductance G(gap), reveals five qualitatively different responses for this composite. Our investigations of two-dimensional domains with a random distribution of fibroblasts in a myocyte background reveal that, as the percentage P-f of fibroblasts increases, the conduction velocity of a plane wave decreases until there is conduction failure. If we consider spiral-wave dynamics in such a medium we find, in two dimensions, a variety of nonequilibrium states, temporally periodic, quasiperiodic, chaotic, and quiescent, and an intricate sequence of transitions between them; we also study the analogous sequence of transitions for three-dimensional scroll waves in a three-dimensional version of our mathematical model that includes both fiber rotation and transmural heterogeneity. We thus elucidate random-fibrosis-induced nonequilibrium transitions, which lead to conduction block for spiral waves in two dimensions and scroll waves in three dimensions. We explore possible experimental implications of our mathematical and numerical studies for plane-, spiral-, and scroll-wave dynamics in cardiac tissue with fibrosis.

The evolution of complexity in social organization-A model using dominance-subordinate behavior in two social wasp species

Dominance and subordinate behaviors are important ingredients in the social organizations of group living animals. Behavioral observations on the two eusocial species Ropalidia marginata and Ropalidia cyathiformis suggest varying complexities in their social systems. The queen of R. cyathiformis is an aggressive individual who usually holds the top position in the dominance hierarchy although she does not necessarily show the maximum number of acts of dominance, while the R. marginata queen rarely shows aggression and usually does not hold the top position in the dominance hierarchy of her colony. In R. marginata, more workers are involved in dominance-subordinate interactions as compared to R. cyathiformis. These differences are reflected in the distribution of dominance-subordinate interactions among the hierarchically ranked individuals in both the species. The percentage of dominance interactions decreases gradually with hierarchical ranks in R. marginata while in R. cyathiformis it first increases and then decreases. We use an agent-based model to investigate the underlying mechanism that could give rise to the observed patterns for both the species. The model assumes, besides some non-interacting individuals, the interaction probabilities of the agents depend on their pre-differentiated winning abilities. Our simulations show that if the queen takes up a strategy of being involved in a moderate number of dominance interactions, one could get the pattern similar to R. cyathiformis, while taking up the strategy of very low interactions by the queen could lead to the pattern of R. marginata. We infer that both the species follow a common interaction pattern, while the differences in their social organization are due to the slight changes in queen as well as worker strategies. These changes in strategies are expected to accompany the evolution of more complex societies from simpler ones.

Spiral-Wave Dynamics in a Mathematical Model of Human Ventricular Tissue with Myocytes and Fibroblasts

Cardiac fibroblasts, when coupled functionally with myocytes, can modulate the electrophysiological properties of cardiac tissue. We present systematic numerical studies of such modulation of electrophysiological properties in mathematical models for (a) single myocyte-fibroblast (MF) units and (b) two-dimensional (2D) arrays of such units; our models build on earlier ones and allow for zero-, one-, and two-sided MF couplings. Our studies of MF units elucidate the dependence of the action-potential (AP) morphology on parameters such as E-f, the fibroblast resting-membrane potential, the fibroblast conductance G(f), and the MF gap-junctional coupling G(gap). Furthermore, we find that our MF composite can show autorhythmic and oscillatory behaviors in addition to an excitable response. Our 2D studies use (a) both homogeneous and inhomogeneous distributions of fibroblasts, (b) various ranges for parameters such as G(gap), G(f), and E-f, and (c) intercellular couplings that can be zero-sided, one-sided, and two-sided connections of fibroblasts with myocytes. We show, in particular, that the plane-wave conduction velocity CV decreases as a function of G(gap), for zero-sided and one-sided couplings; however, for two-sided coupling, CV decreases initially and then increases as a function of G(gap), and, eventually, we observe that conduction failure occurs for low values of G(gap). In our homogeneous studies, we find that the rotation speed and stability of a spiral wave can be controlled either by controlling G(gap) or E-f. Our studies with fibroblast inhomogeneities show that a spiral wave can get anchored to a local fibroblast inhomogeneity. We also study the efficacy of a low-amplitude control scheme, which has been suggested for the control of spiral-wave turbulence in mathematical models for cardiac tissue, in our MF model both with and without heterogeneities.

Viscoelastic Behavior of Human Lamin A Proteins in the Context of Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Lamins are intermediate filament proteins of type V constituting a nuclear lamina or filamentous meshwork which lines the nucleoplasmic side of the inner nuclear membrane. This protein mesh provides a supporting scaffold for the nuclear envelope and tethers interphase chromosome to the nuclear periphery. Mutations of mainly A-type lamins are found to be causative for at least 11 human diseases collectively termed as laminopathies majority of which are characterised by aberrant nuclei with altered structural rigidity, deformability and poor mechanotransduction behaviour. But the investigation of viscoelastic behavior of lamin A continues to elude the field. In order to address this problem, we hereby present the very first report on viscoelastic properties of wild type human lamin A and some of its mutants linked with Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) using quantitative rheological measurements. We observed a dramatic strain-softening effect on lamin A network as an outcome of the strain amplitude sweep measurements which could arise from the large compliance of the quasi-cross-links in the network or that of the lamin A rods. In addition, the drastic stiffening of the differential elastic moduli on superposition of rotational and oscillatory shear stress reflect the increase in the stiffness of the laterally associated lamin A rods. These findings present a preliminary insight into distinct biomechanical properties of wild type lamin A protein and its mutants which in turn revealed interesting differences.

A Study of Early Afterdepolarizations in a Model for Human Ventricular Tissue

Sudden cardiac death is often caused by cardiac arrhythmias. Recently, special attention has been given to a certain arrhythmogenic condition, the long-QT syndrome, which occurs as a result of genetic mutations or drug toxicity. The underlying mechanisms of arrhythmias, caused by the long-QT syndrome, are not fully understood. However, arrhythmias are often connected to special excitations of cardiac cells, called early afterdepolarizations (EADs), which are depolarizations during the repolarizing phase of the action potential. So far, EADs have been studied mainly in isolated cardiac cells. However, the question on how EADs at the single-cell level can result in fibrillation at the tissue level, especially in human cell models, has not been widely studied yet. In this paper, we study wave patterns that result from single-cell EAD dynamics in a mathematical model for human ventricular cardiac tissue. We induce EADs by modeling experimental conditions which have been shown to evoke EADs at a single-cell level: by an increase of L-type Ca currents and a decrease of the delayed rectifier potassium currents. We show that, at the tissue level and depending on these parameters, three types of abnormal wave patterns emerge. We classify them into two types of spiral fibrillation and one type of oscillatory dynamics. Moreover, we find that the emergent wave patterns can be driven by calcium or sodium currents and we find phase waves in the oscillatory excitation regime. From our simulations we predict that arrhythmias caused by EADs can occur during normal wave propagation and do not require tissue heterogeneities. Experimental verification of our results is possible for experiments at the cell-culture level, where EADs can be induced by an increase of the L-type calcium conductance and by the application of I-Kr blockers, and the properties of the emergent patterns can be studied by optical mapping of the voltage and calcium.

Turbulent electrical activity at sharp-edged inexcitable obstacles in a model for human cardiac tissue

Wave propagation around various geometric expansions, structures, and obstacles in cardiac tissue may result in the formation of unidirectional block of wave propagation and the onset of reentrant arrhythmias in the heart. Therefore, we investigated the conditions under which reentrant spiral waves can be generated by high-frequency stimulation at sharp-edged obstacles in the ten Tusscher-Noble-Noble-Panfilov (TNNP) ionic model for human cardiac tissue. We show that, in a large range of parameters that account for the conductance of major inward and outward ionic currents of the model fast inward Na+ current (INa), L-type slow inward Ca2+ current (I-CaL), slow delayed-rectifier current (I-Ks), rapid delayed-rectifier current (I-Kr), inward rectifier K+ current (I-K1)], the critical period necessary for spiral formation is close to the period of a spiral wave rotating in the same tissue. We also show that there is a minimal size of the obstacle for which formation of spirals is possible; this size is similar to 2.5 cm and decreases with a decrease in the excitability of cardiac tissue. We show that other factors, such as the obstacle thickness and direction of wave propagation in relation to the obstacle, are of secondary importance and affect the conditions for spiral wave initiation only slightly. We also perform studies for obstacle shapes derived from experimental measurements of infarction scars and show that the formation of spiral waves there is facilitated by tissue remodeling around it. Overall, we demonstrate that the formation of reentrant sources around inexcitable obstacles is a potential mechanism for the onset of cardiac arrhythmias in the presence of a fast heart rate.

Using formal reasoning on a model of tasks for FreeRTOS

FreeRTOS is an open-source real-time microkernel that has a wide community of users. We present the formal specification of the behaviour of the task part of FreeRTOS that deals with the creation, management, and scheduling of tasks using priority-based preemption. Our model is written in the Z notation, and we verify its consistency using the Z/Eves theorem prover. This includes a precise statement of the preconditions for all API commands. This task model forms the basis for three dimensions of further work: (a) the modelling of the rest of the behaviour of queues, time, mutex, and interrupts in FreeRTOS; (b) refinement of the models to code to produce a verified implementation; and (c) extension of the behaviour of FreeRTOS to multi-core architectures. We propose all three dimensions as benchmark challenge problems for Hoare's Verified Software Initiative.

An enzyme-linked immuno focus assay for rapid detection and enumeration, and a newborn mouse model for human non-polio enteroviruses associated with acute diarrhea

We have recently reported significant association of non-polio enteroviruses (NPEVs) with acute and persistent diarrhea (18-21% of total diarrheal cases), and non-diarrheal Increased Frequency of Bowel Movements (IFoBM-ND) (about 29% of the NPEV infections) in children and that the NPEV-associated diarrhea was as significant as rotavirus diarrhea. However, their diarrhea-causing potential is yet to be demonstrated in an animal model system. Since the determination of virus titers by the traditional plaque assay takes 4-7 days, there is a need for development of a rapid method for virus titer determination to facilitate active clinical research on enterovirus-associated diarrhea. The goal of this study is to develop a cell-based rapid detection and enumeration method and to demonstrate the diarrhea-inducing potential of purified and characterized non-polio enteroviruses, which were isolated from diarrheic children. Here we describe generation of monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies against purified strains belonging to different serotypes, and development of an enzyme-linked immuno focus assay (ELIFA) for detection and enumeration of live NPEV particles in clinical and purified virus samples, and a newborn mouse model for NPEV diarrhea. Plaque-purified NPVEs, belonging to different serotypes, isolated from children with diarrhea, were grown in cell culture and purified by isopycnic CsCl density gradient centrifugation. By ELIFA, NPEVs could be detected and enumerated within 12 h post-infection. Our results demonstrated that Coxsackievirus B1 (CVB1) and CVB5 strains, isolated from diarrheic children, induced severe diarrhea in orally-inoculated 9-12 day-old mouse pups, fulfilling Koch's postulates. The methods described here would facilitate studies on NPEV-associated gastrointestinal disease. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling staphylococcal pneumonia in a human 3D lung tissue model system delineates toxin-mediated pathology

Staphylococcus aureus necrotizing pneumonia is recognized as a toxin-mediated disease, yet the tissue-destructive events remain elusive, partly as a result of lack of mechanistic studies in human lung tissue. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) tissue model composed of human lung epithelial cells and fibroblasts was used to delineate the role of specific staphylococcal exotoxins in tissue pathology associated with severe pneumonia. To this end, the models were exposed to the mixture of exotoxins produced by S. aureus strains isolated from patients with varying severity of lung infection, namely necrotizing pneumonia or lung empyema, or to purified toxins. The necrotizing pneumonia strains secreted high levels of alpha-toxin and Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL), and triggered high cytotoxicity, inflammation, necrosis and loss of E-cadherin from the lung epithelium. In contrast, the lung empyema strain produced moderate levels of PVL, but negligible amounts of alpha-toxin, and triggered limited tissue damage. alpha-toxin had a direct damaging effect on the epithelium, as verified using toxin-deficient mutants and pure alpha-toxin. Moreover, PVL contributed to pathology through the lysis of neutrophils. A combination of alpha-toxin and PVL resulted in the most severe epithelial injury. In addition, toxin-induced release of pro-inflammatory mediators from lung tissue models resulted in enhanced neutrophil migration. Using a collection of 31 strains from patients with staphylococcal pneumonia revealed that strains producing high levels of alpha-toxin and PVL were cytotoxic and associated with fatal outcome. Also, the strains that produced the highest toxin levels induced significantly greater epithelial disruption. Of importance, toxin-mediated lung epithelium destruction could be inhibited by polyspecific intravenous immunoglobulin containing antibodies against alpha-toxin and PVL. This study introduces a novel model system for study of staphylococcal pneumonia in a human setting. The results reveal that the combination and levels of alpha-toxin and PVL correlate with tissue pathology and clinical outcome associated with pneumonia.

On the detection of human influence in extreme precipitation over India

Climate change is expected to influence extreme precipitation which in turn might affect risks of pluvial flooding. Recent studies on extreme rainfall over India vary in their definition of extremes, scales of analyses and conclusions about nature of changes in such extremes. Fingerprint-based detection and attribution (D&A) offer a formal way of investigating the presence of anthropogenic signals in hydroclimatic observations. There have been recent efforts to quantify human effects in the components of the hydrologic cycle at large scales, including precipitation extremes. This study conducts a D&A analysis on precipitation extremes over India, considering both univariate and multivariate fingerprints, using a standardized probability-based index (SPI) from annual maximum one-day (RX1D) and five-day accumulated (RX5D) rainfall. The pattern-correlation based fingerprint method is used for the D&A analysis. Transformation of annual extreme values to SPI and subsequent interpolation to coarser grids are carried out to facilitate comparison between observations and model simulations. Our results show that in spite of employing these methods to address scale and physical processes mismatch between observed and model simulated extremes, attributing changes in regional extreme precipitation to anthropogenic climate change is difficult. At very high (95%) confidence, no signals are detected for RX1D, while for the RX5D and multivariate cases only the anthropogenic (ANT) signal is detected, though the fingerprints are in general found to be noisy. The findings indicate that model simulations may underestimate regional climate system responses to increasing human forcings for extremes, and though anthropogenic factors may have a role to play in causing changes in extreme precipitation, their detection is difficult at regional scales and not statistically significant. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.