Regionalization of extreme rainfall in India

Regionalization of extreme rainfall is useful for various applications in hydro-meteorology. There is dearth of regionalization studies on extreme rainfall in India. In this perspective, a set of 25 regions that are homogeneous in 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-day extreme rainfall is delineated based on seasonality measure of extreme rainfall and location indicators (latitude, longitude and altitude) by using global fuzzy c-means (GFCM) cluster analysis. The regions are validated for homogeneity in L-moment framework. One of the applications of the regions is in arriving at quantile estimates of extreme rainfall at sparsely gauged/ungauged locations using options such as regional frequency analysis (RFA). The RFA involves use of rainfall-related information from gauged sites in a region as the basis to estimate quantiles of extreme rainfall for target locations that resemble the region in terms of rainfall characteristics. A procedure for RFA based on GFCM-delineated regions is presented and its effectiveness is evaluated by leave-one-out cross validation. Error in quantile estimates for ungauged sites is compared with that resulting from the use of region-of-influence (ROI) approach that forms site-specific regions exclusively for quantile estimation. Results indicate that error in quantile estimates based on GFCM regions and ROI are fairly close, and neither of them is consistent in yielding the least error over all the sites. The cluster analysis approach was effective in reducing the number of regions to be delineated for RFA.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Vegetation structure and composition of tropical evergreen and deciduous forests in Uttara Kannada District, Western Ghats under different disturbance regimes

In the present paper, we present the structure and composition of tropical evergreen and deciduous forests in the Western Ghats monitored under a long-term programme involving Indian Institute of Science, Earthwatch and volunteer investigators from HSBC. Currently, there is limited evidence on the status and dynamics of tropical forests in the context of human disturbance and climate change. Observations made in this study show that the `more disturbed' evergreen and one of the deciduous plots have low species diversity compared to the less-disturbed forests. There are also variations in the size class structure in the more and `less disturbed' forests of all the locations. The variation is particularly noticeable in the DBH size class 10 - 15 cm category. When biomass stock estimates are considered, there was no significant difference between evergreen and deciduous forests. The difference in biomass stocks between `less disturbed' and `more disturbed' forests within a forest type is also low. Thus, the biomass and carbon stock has not been impacted despite the dependence of communities on the forests. Periodic and long-term monitoring of the status and dynamics of the forests is necessary in the context of potential increased human pressure and climate change. There is, therefore, a need to inform the communities of the impact of extraction and its effect on regeneration so as to motivate them to adopt what may be termed as ``adaptive resource management'', so as to sustain the flow of forest products.

Disaggregation of LST over India: comparative analysis of different vegetation indices

The non-availability of high-spatial-resolution thermal data from satellites on a consistent basis led to the development of different models for sharpening coarse-spatial-resolution thermal data. Thermal sharpening models that are based on the relationship between land-surface temperature (LST) and a vegetation index (VI) such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) or fraction vegetation cover (FVC) have gained much attention due to their simplicity, physical basis, and operational capability. However, there are hardly any studies in the literature examining comprehensively various VIs apart from NDVI and FVC, which may be better suited for thermal sharpening over agricultural and natural landscapes. The aim of this study is to compare the relative performance of five different VIs, namely NDVI, FVC, the normalized difference water index (NDWI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and modified soil adjusted vegetation index (MSAVI), for thermal sharpening using the DisTrad thermal sharpening model over agricultural and natural landscapes in India. Multi-temporal LST data from Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors obtained over two different agro-climatic grids in India were disaggregated from 960 m to 120 m spatial resolution. The sharpened LST was compared with the reference LST estimated from the Landsat data at 120 m spatial resolution. In addition to this, MODIS LST was disaggregated from 960 m to 480 m and compared with ground measurements at five sites in India. It was found that NDVI and FVC performed better only under wet conditions, whereas under drier conditions, the performance of NDWI was superior to other indices and produced accurate results. SAVI and MSAVI always produced poorer results compared with NDVI/FVC and NDWI for wet and dry cases, respectively.