Latitudinal gradient in aerosol properties over the Indian and Southern Oceans during the austral summer

Extensive measurements of columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD), composite (M-T) and black carbon aerosol mass (M-B) concentrations were made over the tropical Indian and Southern Oceans as a part of the Pilot Expedition to the Southern Ocean during the boreal winter. The AOD, M-T and M-B show large latitudinal gradient towards south up to ITCZ. Beyond ITCZ, up to 56 degrees S, AOD and M-B show very low and steady values. However M-T shows large variations in the Southern Ocean due to the enhanced production of sea salt aerosols associated with high sea surface winds. The short wave aerosol radiative forcing at the surface over north of equator is in the range - 10 to -23 W m(-2), whereas that over the Southern Ocean was in the range -4 to -5 W m(-2). The corresponding atmospheric forcing was in the range of 6-13 W m(-2) and 0.8-1.4 W m(-2). This large north south change in the aerosol radiative forcing has important implications to the meridional circulation and hence to climate.

Reference annual atmospheres for midlatitude and tropics

Many aerospace and scientific applications require the specification of the atmospheric properties at various locations, UT and seasons for a range of solar and geomagnetic activity. The nature and mechanisms of the lower and upper atmospheres are different so also their models. Further there is a need to match these models and this is accomplished here in a simple way. In the revision of CIRA 1972 in 1986, the reference middle atmospheres is not yet complete. Two annual reference atmospheres from sea level up to 2000 km for the midlatitude and the tropics is proposed. Other monthly reference atmospheres as also the structure of the atmospheric tables to be provided in the above document is also indicated.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Characterization of aerosol black carbon over a tropical semi-arid region of Anantapur, India

Black carbon (BC) aerosol mass concentrations measured using an aethalometer at Anantapur, a semi-arid tropical station in the southern part of peninsular India, from August 2006 to July 2007 are analyzed. Seasonal and diurnal variations of BC in relation to changes in the regional meteorological conditions have been studied along with the mass fraction of BC to the total aerosol mass concentration (M-t) and fine particle mass (FPM) concentration in different months. The data collected during the study period shows that the annual average BC mass concentration at Anantapur is 1.97 +/- 0.12 mu g m(-3). Seasonal variations of BC aerosol mass concentration showed high during the dry (winter and summer) seasons and low during the post-monsoon followed by the monsoon seasons. Diurnal variations of BC aerosols attain a gradual build up in BC concentration from morning and a sharp peak occurs between 07:00 and 09:00 h almost an hour after local sunrise and a broad nocturnal peak from 19:00 to 21:00 h with a minimum in noon hours. The ratio of BC to the fine particle mass concentration was high during the dry season and low during the monsoon season. The regression analysis between BC mass concentration and wind speed indicates that, with increase in wind speeds the BC mass concentrations would decrease and vice-versa. Aerosol BC mass concentration shows a significant positive correlation with total mass concentration (M-t) and aerosol optical depth (ACID, tau(p)) at 500 nm. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intraseasonal Variation of the Summer Monsoon I:Observational Aspects

Within the summer monsoon, the circulation and rainfall over the Indian region exhibit large variations over the synoptic scale of 3-7 days and the supersynoptic scales of 10 days and longer. In this paper we discuss some facets of intraseasonal variation on the supersynoptic scale on the basis of existing observational studies and some new analysis. The major variation of the summer monsoon rainfall on this scale is the active-break cycle. The deep convection over the Indian region on a typical day in the active phase is organized over thousands of kilometers in the zonal direction and is associated with a tropical convergence zone (TCZ). The intraseasonal variations on the supersynoptic scale are also coherent on these scales and are related to the space-time variation of the large-scale TCZ. The latitudinal distribution of the occurrence of the TCZ is bimodal with the primary mode over the heated continent and a secondary mode over the ocean. The variation of the continental TCZ is generally out of phase with that of the oceanic TCZ. During the active spells, the TCZ persists over the continent in the monsoon zone. The revival from breaks occurs either by northward propagation of the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean or by genesis of a disturbance in the monsoon zone (often as a result of westward propagations from W. Pacific). The mechanisms governing the fluctuation between active spells and breaks, the interphase transition and the complex interactions of the TCZ over the Indian subcontinent with the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the W. Pacific, have yet to be completely understood.

Changes in seasonal snow cover in Hindu Kush-Himalayan region

The changes in seasonal snow covered area in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region have been examined using Moderate – resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day standard snow products. The average snow covered area of the HKH region based on satellite data from 2000 to 2010 is 0.76 million km2 which is 18.23% of the total geographical area of the region. The linear trend in annual snow cover from 2000 to 2010 is −1.25±1.13%. This is in consistent with earlier reported decline of the decade from 1990 to 2001. A similar trend for western, central and eastern HKH region is 8.55±1.70%, +1.66% ± 2.26% and 0.82±2.50%, respectively. The snow covered area in spring for HKH region indicates a declining trend (−1.04±0.97%). The amount of annual snowfall is correlated with annual seasonal snow cover for the western Himalaya, indicating that changes in snow cover are primarily due to interannual variations in circulation patterns. Snow cover trends over a decade were also found to vary across seasonally and the region. Snow cover trends for western HKH are positive for all seasons. In central HKH the trend is positive (+15.53±5.69%) in autumn and negative (−03.68±3.01) in winter. In eastern HKH the trend is positive in summer (+3.35±1.62%) and autumn (+7.74±5.84%). The eastern and western region of HKH has an increasing trend of 10% to 12%, while the central region has a declining trend of 12% to 14% in the decade between 2000 and 2010. Snow cover depletion curve plotted for the hydrological year 2000–2001 reveal peaks in the month of February with subsidiary peaks observed in November and December in all three regions of the HKH.

Mechanisms of summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

Intraseasonal variations (ISV) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is highest in its northwestern part. An Indian Ocean model forced by QuikSCAT winds and climatological river discharge (QR run) reproduces ISV of SST, albeit with weaker magnitude. Air-sea fluxes, in the presence of a shallow mixed layer, efficiently effect intraseasonal SST fluctuations. Warming during intraseasonal events is smaller (<1°C) for June - July period and larger (1.5° to 2°C) during September, the latter due to a thinner mixed layer. To examine the effect of salinity on ISV, the model was run by artificially increasing the salinity (NORR run) and by decreasing it (MAHA10 run). In NORR, both rainfall and river discharge were switched off and in MAHA10 the discharge by river Mahanadi was increased tenfold. The spatial pattern of ISV as well as its periodicity was similar in QR, NORR and MAHA10. The ISV was stronger in NORR and weaker in MAHA10, compared to QR. In NORR, both intraseasonal warming and cooling were higher than in QR, the former due to reduced air-sea heat loss as the mean SST was lower, and the latter due to enhanced subsurface processes resulting from weaker stratification. In MAHA10, both warming and cooling were lower than in QR, the former due to higher air-sea heat loss owing to higher mean SST, and the latter due to weak subsurface processes resulting from stronger stratification. These model experiments suggest that salinity effects are crucial in determining amplitudes of intraseasonal SST variations in the BoB.

Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against similar to 0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); similar to 60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and similar to 40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our similar to 100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Characteristics of Arabian Sea mini warm pool and Indian summer monsoon

Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP) is a part of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool and formed in the eastern Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the summer monsoon season. This warm pool attained its maximum intensity during the pre-monsoon season and dissipated with the commencement of summer monsoon. The main focus of the present work was on the triggering of the dissipation of this warm pool and its relation to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. This phenomenon was studied utilizing NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric and Research) re-analysis data, TRMM Micro wave Imager (TMI) and observational data. To define the ASMWP, sea surface temperature exceeding 30.25A degrees C was taken as the criteria. The warm pool attained its maximum dimension and intensity nearly 2 weeks prior to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. Interestingly, the warm pool started its dissipation immediately after attaining its maximum core temperature. This information can be included in the present numerical models to enhance the prediction capability. It was also found that the extent and intensity of the ASMWP varied depending on the type of monsoon i.e., excess, normal, and deficient monsoon. Maximum core temperature and wide coverage of the warm pool observed during the excess monsoon years compared to normal and deficient monsoon years. The study also revealed a strong relationship between the salinity in the eastern Arabian Sea and the nature of the monsoon.

Climatic fluctuations during the LIA and post-LIA in the Kumaun Lesser Himalaya, India: Evidence from a 400 y old stalagmite record

This paper presents the first stable isotope (delta O-18 and delta C-13) data of a similar to 400 years (1590-2006 AD) long annual to decadal-resolution speleothem record collected from the Indian Lesser Himalaya. The data show a variation from -2.7 to -5.9 parts per thousand in delta O-18 and -5.3 to -8.8 parts per thousand in delta C-13. The isotopic analyses indicate that the climate during this period can be divided into two stages: a wet phase during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1590-1850 AD) and comparatively dry phase during the post-LIA after 1850 AD. However, the record also documents the minor dry events during the LIA and a wet episode after the LIA. Within the age uncertainty, the dry spells during the LIA are linked with the historical drought events in the Indian subcontinent and similar latitudes. The isotopic record is consistent with a number of previous studies in the areas influenced by the Westerlies but appears to be conflicting to the regions, dominated by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). This may be due to the possible changes in the strength of Westerlies in the study area and added by negative anomaly of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the LIA. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.