Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

X-ray studies on crystalline complexes involving amino acids and peptides XIX. Effects of change in chirality in the complexes of succinic acid with dl- and l-arginine

Crystals of dl-arginine hemisuccinate dihydrate (I)(monoclinic; P21/c; a = 5.292, b = 16.296, c = 15.203 Å; α= 92.89°; Z = 4) and l-arginine hemisuccinate hemisuccinic acid monohydrate (II) (triclinic; P1; a = 5.099; b = 10.222, c = 14.626 Å; α= 77.31, β= 89.46, γ= 78.42°; Z = 2) were grown under identical conditions from aqueous solutions of the components in molar proportions. The structures were solved by direct methods and refined to R = 0.068 for 2585 observed reflections in the case of (I) and R = 0.036 for 2154 observed reflections in the case of (11). Two of the three crystallographically independent arginine molecules in the complexes have conformations different from those observed so far in the crystal structures containing arginine. The succinic acid molecules and the succinate ions in the structures are centrosymmetric and planar. The crystal structure of (II) is highly pseudosymmetric. Arginine-succinate interactions in both the complexes involve specific guanidyl-carboxylate interactions. The basic elements of aggregation in both the structures are ribbons made up of alternating arginine dimers and succinate ions. However, the ribbons pack in different ways in the two structures. (II) presents an interesting case in which two ionisation states of the same molecule coexist in a crystal. The two complexes provide a good example of the effect of change in chirality on stoichiometry, conformation, aggregation, and ionisation state in the solid state.

X-ray studies on crystalline complexes involving amino acids and peptides. XXI. Structure of a (1:1) complex between L-phenylalanine and D-valine

CsHllNO2.C9HilNO2, Mr = 282.3, P1, a = 5.245 (1), b = 5.424 (1), c = 14.414 (2) A, a = 97.86 (1), fl = 93-69 (2), y = 70-48 (2) °, V= 356 A 3, Z = 1, O m = 1-32 (2), Dx = 1.32 g cm-3, h(Mo Ka) = 0-7107 A, g = 5-9 cm-1, F(000) = 158, T= 298 K, R=0.035 for 1518 observed reflections with I>2tr(I). The molecules aggregate in double layers, one ayer made up of L-phenylalanine molecules and the other of D-valine molecules. Each double layer is stabilized by interactions involving main-chain atoms of both types of molecules. The interactions include hydrogen bonds which give rise to two head-to-tail sequences. The arrangement of molecules in the complex is almost the same as that in the structure of DL-valine (and DL-leucine and DL-isoleucine) except for the change in the side chain of L molecules. The molecules in crystals containing an equal number of L and O hydrophobic amino-acid molecules thus appear to aggregate in a similar fashion, irrespective of the precise details of the side chain.

A monolithic strategy for fluid-structure interaction problems

In this work, we present a new monolithic strategy for solving fluid-structure interaction problems involving incompressible fluids, within the context of the finite element method. This strategy, similar to the continuum dynamics, conserves certain properties, and thus provides a rational basis for the design of the time-stepping strategy; detailed proofs of the conservation of these properties are provided. The proposed algorithm works with displacement and velocity variables for the structure and fluid, respectively, and introduces no new variables to enforce velocity or traction continuity. Any existing structural dynamics algorithm can be used without change in the proposed method. Use of the exact tangent stiffness matrix ensures that the algorithm converges quadratically within each time step. An analytical solution is presented for one of the benchmark problems used in the literature, namely, the piston problem. A number of benchmark problems including problems involving free surfaces such as sloshing and the breaking dam problem are used to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed method. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Structure and composition related properties of titania thin films

The dependence of optical constants, structure and composition of titania thin films on the process parameters has been investigated. Films were deposited using both reactive electron beam evaporation and ion Assisted Deposition(IAD). If has been observed that the refractive index of IAD films is higher than that for the reactively deposited films, without much difference in the extinction coefficient. Electron paramagnetic resonance has been used to estimate qualitatively the presence of non-stoichiometry in the films. It has been found that these spectra correlate very well the optical behaviour of the films. X-ray diffraction studies revealed that the neutral oxygen deposited films were stress free, while the IAD films showed tensile stress. The lattice parameters showed anisotropic change with ion beam parameters.

Laboratory studies on the volume change characteristics of kaolinite contaminated with sodium phosphate/sulfate

Reported distress to an industrial structure from phosphate/sulfate contamination of kaolinitic foundation soil at an industrial location in Southern India prompted this laboratory study. The study examines the short-term effect of sodium sulfate/phosphate contamination on the swell/compression characteristics of a commercial kaolinite. Experimental results showed that the unsaturated contaminated kaolinite specimens exhibited slightly higher swell potentials and lower compressions than the unsaturated uncontaminated kaolinite specimens. It is suggested that the larger double layer promoted by the increased exchangeable sodium ion concentration is responsible for the slightly higher swell potentials and lower compressions of the unsaturated contaminated kaolinite specimens.

The role of lysine-256 in the structure and function of sheep liver recombinant serine hydroxymethyltransferase

The active site lysine residue, K256, involved in Schiffs base linkage with pyridoxal-5'-phosphate (PEP) in sheep liver recombinant serine hydroxymethyltransferase (rSHMT) was changed to glutamine or arginine by site-directed mutagenesis. The purified K256Q and K256R SHMTs had less than 0.1% of catalytic activity with serine and H(4)folate as substrates compared to rSHMT. The mutant enzymes also failed to exhibit the characteristic visible absorbance spectrum (lambda(max) 425 nm) and did not produce the quinonoid intermediate (lambda(max) 495 nm) upon the addition of glycine and H(4)folate. The mutant enzymes were unable to catalyze aldol cleavage of beta-phenylserine and transamination of D-alanine. These results suggested that the mutation of the lysine had resulted in the inability of the enzyme to bind to the cofactor. Therefore, the K256Q SHMT was isolated as a dimer and the K256R SHMT as a mixture of dimers and tetramers which were converted to dimers slowly. On the other hand, rSHMT was stable as a tetramer for several months, further confirming the role of PLP in maintenance of oligomeric structure. The mutant enzymes also failed to exhibit the increased thermal stability upon the addition of serine, normally observed with rSHMT. The enhanced thermal stability has been attributed to a change in conformation of the enzyme from open to closed form leading to reaction specificity. The mutant enzymes were unable to undergo this conformational change probably because of the absence of bound cofactor.

Plume structure in high-Rayleigh-number convection

Near-wall structures in turbulent natural convection at Rayleigh numbers of $10^{10}$ to $10^{11}$ at A Schmidt number of 602 are visualized by a new method of driving the convection across a fine membrane using concentration differences of sodium chloride. The visualizations show the near-wall flow to consist of sheet plumes. A wide variety of large-scale flow cells, scaling with the cross-section dimension, are observed. Multiple large-scale flow cells are seen at aspect ratio (AR)= 0.65, while only a single circulation cell is detected at AR= 0.435. The cells (or the mean wind) are driven by plumes coming together to form columns of rising lighter fluid. The wind in turn aligns the sheet plumes along the direction of shear. the mean wind direction is seen to change with time. The near-wall dynamics show plumes initiated at points, which elongate to form sheets and then merge. Increase in rayleigh number results in a larger number of closely and regularly spaced plumes. The plume spacings show a common log–normal probability distribution function, independent of the rayleigh number and the aspect ratio. We propose that the near-wall structure is made of laminar natural-convection boundary layers, which become unstable to give rise to sheet plumes, and show that the predictions of a model constructed on this hypothesis match the experiments. Based on these findings, we conclude that in the presence of a mean wind, the local near-wall boundary layers associated with each sheet plume in high-rayleigh-number turbulent natural convection are likely to be laminar mixed convection type.

Crystal structure of quenched and in-field electroluminescent phosphors

Electroluminescent zinc sulfide doped with copper and chloride (ZnS:Cu, Cl) powder was heated to 400°C and rapidly quenched to room temperature. Comparison between the quenched and non-quenched phosphors using synchrotron radiation X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) (λ = 0.828692 Å) and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) was made. XRPD shows that the expected highly faulted structure is observed with excellent resolution out to 150° 2θ (or to (12 2 2) of the sphalerite phase). The quenched sample compared to the unheated sample shows a large change in peak ratios between 46.7° and 46.9°, which is thought to correspond to the wurtzite (0 0 6), (0 3 2) and sphalerite (3 3 3)/(5 1 1) peaks. Hence, a large proportion of this sphalerite diffraction is lost from the material upon rapid quenching, but not when the material is allowed to cool slowly. The Zn K-edge XAS data indicate that the crystalline structures are indistinguishable using this technique, but do give an indication that the electronic structure has altered due to changing intensity of the white line. It is noted that the blue electroluminescence (EL) emission bands are lost upon quenching: however, a large amount of total EL emission intensity is also removed, which is consistent with our findings. We report the XRPD of a working alternating-current electroluminescence device in the synchrotron X-ray beam, which exhibits a new diffraction pattern when the device is powered in an AC field even though the phosphor is fixed in the binder. Significantly, only a few crystals are required to yield the diffraction data because of the high flux X-ray source. These in panel data show multiple sharp diffraction lines spread out under the region, where capillary data show broad diffraction intensity indicating that the phosphor powder is comprised of unique crystals, each having different structures.

Crystal Structure, Thermal Expansion and ElectricaH Conductivity of Yo.sCao.2Fel-x Mnx03+o (0 < x < 1.0)

The crystal structure, thennal expansion and electrical conductivity of the solid solutions YOgCao.2Fel-x MnxOJ+c5 (0 ~ x ~ 1.0) were investigated. All compositions had the GdFeOrtype orthorhombic perovskite structure with trace amounts of a second phase present in case of x = 0.8 and 1.0. The lattice parameters were detennined at room tempe'rature by using X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD). The pseudocubic lattice constant decreased with increasing x. The average I inear thermal expansion coefficient (anv) in the temperature range from 673 to 973 K showed negligible change with x up to x = 0.4. The thennal expansion curve for x = I had a slope approaching zero in the temperature range from 648 to 948 K. The calculated activation energy values for electrical conduction indicate that conduction occurs primarily by the small polaron hopping mechanism. The drastic drop in electrical conductivity for a small addition of Mn (0 ~ x ~ 0.2) is caused by the preferential fonnation of Mn4t ion~ (rather than Fe4 +) which act as carrier traps. This continues till the charge compensation for the divalent ions on the A-site is complete. The results indicate that with further increase in manganese content (beyond x =0.4) in the solid solutions, there is an increase in exc :::ss oxygen and consequently, a small increase in Mn'll il>I1~, which are charge compensated by the formation of cation vancancies.

An eight-connected metal organic framework based on Cu(5) clusters: Synthesis, structure, magnetic and catalytic properties

A reaction of copper acetate, 5-nitroisophthalic acid in a water-methanol mixture under solvothermal condition results in a new metal-organic framework compound, [Cu(5)(mu(3)-OH)(2)(H(2)O)(6){(NO(2))-C(6)H(3)-(COO)(2)}(4)]center dot 5H(2)O, (1). The compound contains Cu5 pentameric cluster units connected by 5-nitro isophthalate (NIPA) moieties forming a CdCl(2)-like layer, which are further connected by another NIPA moiety forming the three-dimensional structure. The water molecules in (1) can be reversibly adsorbed. The removal of water accompanies a change in the colour as well as a structural re-organization. Magnetic studies suggest strong antiferromagnetie correlations between the Cu5 cluster units. The compound (1) exhibits heterogeneous Lewis acid catalysis for the cyanosilylation of imines with more than 95 % selectivity. Compound (1) has been characterized by IR, UV-vis, TGA, powder XRD studies.

Structure of DNA-functionalized dendrimer nanoparticles

Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations have been carried out to reveal the characteristic features of ethylenediamine (EDA) cored protonated (corresponding to neutral pH) poly amido amine (PAMAM) dendrimers of generation 3 (G3) and 4 (G4) that are functionalized with single strand DNAs (ssDNAs). The four ssDNA strands that are attached via an alkythiolate [-S(CH(2))(6)-] linker molecule to the free amine groups on the surface of the PAMAM dendrimers are observed to undergo a rapid conformational change during the 25 ns long simulation period. From the RMSD values of ssDNAs, we find relative stability in the case of purine rich (having more adenine and guanine) ssDNA strands than pyrimidine rich (thymine and cytosine) ssDNA strands. The degree of wrapping of ssDNA strands on the dendrimer molecule was found to be influenced by the charge ratio of DNA and the dendrimer. As the G4 dendrimer contains relatively more positive charge than G3 dendrimer, we observe extensive wrapping of ssDNAs on the G4 dendrimer than G3 dendrimer. This might indicate that DNA functionalized G3 dendrimer is more suitable to construct higher order nanostructures. The linker molecule was also found to undergo drastic conformational change during the simulation. During nanosecond long simulation some portion of the linker molecule was found to be lying nearly flat on the surface of the dendrimer molecule. The ssDNA strands along with the linkers are seen to penetrate the surface of the dendrimer molecule and approach closer to the center of the dendrimer indicating the soft sphere nature of the dendrimer molecule. The effective radius of DNA-functionalized dendrimer nanoparticles was found to be independent of base composition of ssDNAs and was observed to be around 19.5 angstrom and 22.4 angstrom when we used G3 and G4 PAMAM dendrimers as the core of the nanoparticle respectively. The observed effective radius of DNA-functionalized dendrimer molecules apparently indicates the significant shrinkage in the structure that has taken place in dendrimer, linker and DNA strands. As a whole our results describe the characteristic features of DNA-functionalized dendrimer nanoparticles and can be used as strong inputs to design effectively the DNA-dendrimer nanoparticle self-assembly for their active biological applications.

Ferrocene-Conjugated Copper(II) Complexes of L-Methionine and Phenanthroline Bases: Synthesis, Structure, and Photocytotoxic Activity

Ferrocene-conjugated reduced Schiff base (Fc-metH) copper(II) complexes of L-methionine and phenanthroline bases, namely, Cu(Fc-met)(B)](NO3), where B is 1,10-phenanthroline (phen in 1), dipyrido3,2-d:2',3'-f]quinoxaline (dpq in 2), dipyrido3,2-a:2',3'-c]phenazine (dppz in 3), and 2-(naphthalen-1-yl)-1H-imidazo4,5-f]1,10]phenanthroline (nip in 4), were prepared and characterized and their photocytotoxicity studied (Fc = ferrocenyl moiety). Complexes Cu(Ph-met)(B)](NO3) of the reduced Schiff base from benzaldehyde and L-methionine (Ph-metH) and B (phen in 5, dppz in 6) were prepared and used as control species. Complexes 1 and 5 were structurally characterized by X-ray crystallography. Complex 1 as a discrete monomer has a CuN3OS core with the thiomethyl group as the axial ligand. Complex 5 has a polymeric structure with a CuN3O2 core in the solid state. Complexes 5 and 6 are formulated as Cu(Ph-met)(B)(H2O)] (NO3) in an aqueous phase based on the mass spectral data. Complexes 1-4 showed the Cu(II)-Cu(I) and Fc(+)-Fc redox couples at similar to 0.0 and similar to 0.5 V vs SCE, respectively, in DMF-0.1 M (Bu4N)-N-n](ClO4). A Cu(II)-based weak d-d band near 600 nm and a relatively strong ferrocenyl band at similar to 450 nm were observed in DMF-Tris-HCl buffer (1:4 v/v). The complexes bind to calf thymus DNA, exhibit moderate chemical nuclease activity forming (OH)-O-center dot radical species, and are efficient photocleavers of pUC19 DNA in visible light of 454, 568, and 647 rim, forming (OH)-O-center dot radical as the reactive oxygen species. They are cytotoxic in HeLa (human cervical cancer) and MCF-7 (human breast cancer) cells, showing an enhancement of cytotoxicity upon visible light irradiation. Significant change in the nuclear morphology of the HeLa cells was observed with 3 in visible light compared to the nonirradiated sample. Confocal imaging using 4 showed its nuclear localization within the HeLa cells.

EFFECT OF CORE-SHELL STRUCTURE OF HYDROGEL BEADS ON THE THRESHOLD CONCENTRATION OF WATER FOR SWELLING AND ITS PH SENSITIVITY

In this paper we investigate the effect of core-shell structure of Sodium Alginate based hydrogel beads and their size on certain activation threshold concentration of water for applications in swelling and pH sensing. This type of hydrogel experiences diffusive pressure due to transport of certain free charges across its interface with a solvent or electrolyte. This process is essentially a dynamic equilibrium of the electric force field, stress in the polymeric network with cage like structure and molecular diffusion including phase transformation due to pressure imbalance between the hydrogel and its surroundings. The effect of pH of the solvant on the swelling rate of these beads has been studied experimentally. A mathematical model of the swelling process has been developed by considering Nernst-Planck equation representing the migration of mobile ions and Er ions, Poisson equation representing the equilibrium of the electric field and mechanical field equation representing swelling of the gel. An attempt has been made to predict the experimentally observed phenomena using these numerical simulations. It is observed experimentally that certain minimum concentration called activation threshold concentration of the water molecules must be present in the hydrogel in order to activate the swelling process. For the required activation threshold concentration of water in the beads, the pH induced change in the rate of swelling is also investigated. This effect is analyzed for various different core-shell structures of the beads.

Structure-property correlation in BaO-TiO2-B2O3 glasses: glass stability, optical, hydrophobic, and dielectric properties

Glasses in the x(BaO-TiO2)-B2O3 (x = 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1 mol.) system were fabricated via the conventional melt-quenching technique. Thermal stability and glass-forming ability as determined by differential thermal analysis (DTA) were found to increase with increasing BaO-TiO2 (BT) content. However, there was no noticeable change in the glass transition temperature (T-g). This was attributed to the active participation of TiO2 in the network formation especially at higher BT contents via the conversion of the TiO6 structural units into TiO4 units, which increased the connectivity and resulted in an increase in crystallization temperature. Dielectric and optical properties at room temperature were studied for all the glasses under investigation. Interestingly, these glasses were found to be hydrophobic. The results obtained were correlated with different structural units and their connectivity in the glasses.