Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal decomposition of zirconyl oxalates I. Barium zirconyl oxalate

Conditions for the preparation of stoichiometric barium zirconyl oxalate heptahydrate (BZO) have been standardized. The thermal decomposition of BZO has been investigated employing TG, DTG and DTA techniques and chemical and gas analysis. The decomposition proceeds through four steps and is not affected much by the surrounding gas atmosphere. Both dehydration and oxalate decomposition take place in two steps. The formation of a transient intermediate containing both oxalate and carbonate groups is inferred. The decomposition of oxalate groups results in a carbonate of composition Ba2Zr2OsCO3, which decomposes between 600 and 800 ~ and yields barium zirconate. Chemical analysis, IR spectra and X-ray powder diffraction data support the identity of the intermediate as a separate entity.

Thermal decomposition of zirconyl oxalates I. Barium zirconyl oxalate

Conditions for the preparation of stoichiometric barium zirconyl oxalate heptahydrate (BZO) have been standardized. The thermal decomposition of BZO has been investigated employing TG, DTG and DTA techniques and chemical and gas analysis. The decomposition proceeds through four steps and is not affected much by the surrounding gas atmosphere. Both dehydration and oxalate decomposition take place in two steps. The formation of a transient intermediate containing both oxalate and carbonate groups is inferred. The decomposition of oxalate groups results in a carbonate of composition Ba2Zr2O5CO3, which decomposes between 600 and 800° and yields barium zirconate. Chemical analysis, IR spectra and X-ray powder diffraction data support the identity of the intermediate as a separate entity.Die Bedingungen für die Herstellung von stöchiometrischem Barium-zirconyl-oxalat Heptahydrat (BZO) wurden standardisiert. Die thermische Zersetzung von BZO wurde unter Einsatz der TG-, DTG- und DTA, sowie der chemischen und Gasanalyse untersucht. Die Zersetzung verläuft über vier Stufen und wird von der umgebenden Gasathmosphäre nicht besonders beeinflusst. Sowohl die Dehydratisierung als auch die Oxalatzersetzung erfolgt in zwei Stufen. Die Bildung einer intermediären Übergangsverbindung mit sowohl Oxalat- als auch Carbonatgruppen wirken hierbei mit. Die Zersetzung der Oxalatgruppen ergibt ein Carbonat der Zusammensetzung Ba2Zr2O5CO3, das zwischen 600 und 800° zersetzt wird und Bariumzirconat ergibt. Die Angaben der chemischen Analyse, der IR-Spekren und der Röntgen-Pulver-Diffraktion unterstützen die Identität der Intermediärverbindung als eine separate Einheit.On a standardisé les conditions de préparation de l'oxalate heptahydraté de zirconyle et de baryum (BZO) stoechiométrique. On a étudié la décomposition thermique de BZO par TG, TGD et ATD ainsi que par analyses chimiques et analyses des gaz. La décomposition a lieu en quatre étapes et n'est pas trop influencée par l'atmosphère ambiante. La déshydratation et la décomposition de l'oxalate ont lieu en deux étapes. Il se forme un composé intermédiaire de transition contenant à la fois les groupes oxalate et carbonate. La décomposition des groupes oxalate fournit un carbonate de composition Ba2Zr2O5CO3 qui se décompose entre 600 et 800° pour fournir du zirconate de baryum. L'analyse chimique, les spectres IR et la diffraction des rayons X sur poudre, apportent les preuves de l'existence d'un composé intermédiaire comme entité séparée.

Reactions of copper(I) aryloxides with phenyl isothiocyanate: steric and ligand control in the oligomerization of [N-phenylimino(aryloxy)methanethiolato]copper(I) complexes

The preparation of five different copper(I) complexes [CuSC(=NPh)(OAr)}L(n)]m (1-5) formed by the insertion of PhNCS into the Cu-OAr bond and the crystal structure analyses of three of them have been carried out. A monomeric species 1 (OAr = 2,6-dimethylphenoxide) is formed in the presence of excess PPh3 (n = 2, m = 1) and crystallizes as triclinic crystals with a = 12.419(4) angstrom, b = 13.298(7) angstrom, c = 15.936(3) angstrom, alpha = 67.09(3)-degrees, beta = 81.63(2)-degrees, gamma = 66.54(3)-degrees, V = 2224(2) angstrom3, and Z = 2. The structure was refined by the least-squares method to final R and R(w) values of 0.038 and 0.044, respectively, for 7186 unique reflections. Copper(I) 2,5-di-tert-butyl-4-methylphenoxide results in the formation of a dimeric species 2 in the presence of P(OMe)3 (n = 1, m = 2), where the coordination around Cu is trigonal. Crystals of 2 were found to be orthorhombic with a = 15.691(2) angstrom, b = 18.216(3) angstrom, c = 39.198(5) angstrom, v = 11204(3) angstrom3, and Z = 8. Least-squares refinement gave final residuals of R = 0.05 and R(w) = 0.057 with 6866 unique reflections. A tetrameric species 3 results when PPh3 is replaced by P(OMe)3 in the coordination sphere of copper(I) 2,6-dimethylphenoxide. It crystallizes in the space group P1BAR with a = 11.681 (1) angstrom, b = 13.373(2) angstrom, c = 20.127(1) angstrom, a = 88.55(l)-degrees, beta = 89.65(l)-degrees, gamma = 69.28(1)-degrees, V = 2940(l) angstrom3, and Z = 2. Least-squares refinement of the structure gave final values of 0.043 and 0.05 for R and R(w) respectively using 12214 unique reflections. In addition, a dimeric species 4 is formed when 1 equiv of PPh3 is added to the copper(I) 4-methylphenoxide, while with an excess of PPh3 a monomeric species 5 is isolated. Some interconversions among these complexes are also reported.

Regeneration of plantlets from leaf disc cultures of rosewood: control of leaf abscission and shoot tip necrosis

A method for mass production of rosewood (Dalbergia latifolia Roxb.) trees through leaf disc organogenesis was developed and standardized. Compact callus was initiated from mature leaf discs on Murashige and Skoog (MS) basal medium supplemented with 1.0 mg 1?1 2,4-dichlorophenoxy acetic acid (2,4-D), 5.0 mg 1?1 ?-naphthaleneacetic acid (NAA), 1.0 mg 1?1 6-benzylaminopurine (BAP) and 10% coconut water (CW). High frequency (15�20 shoots/g callus) regeneration of shoot bud differentiation was obtained on MS (3/4 reduced major elements) or Woody Plant Medium (WPM) or modified Woody Plant Medium (mWPM) supplemented with BAP (5.0 mg 1?1) and NAA (0.5 mg 1?1). Leaf abscission and shoot tip necrosis was controlled using mWPM. About 90% of the excised shoots were rooted in the mWPM supplemented with 2.0 mg 1?1 ?-indolebutyric acid (IBA) and 1.0 mg 1?1 caffeic acid. The in vitro-raised rooted plantlets were hardened for successful transplantation to soil. The transplanted plants were exposed to various humidity conditions and 80% transplant success was achieved. The in vitro-raised leaf-regenerated plants grew normally and vigorously in soil.

Standardization of pollen allergens of Parthenium hysterophoms and selection of an in-house reference extract

A standardized in-house reference extract from the pollen of Parthenium hysterophorus, which is responsible for the high incidence of allergic rhinitis in India, was generated and examined by skin test, radio-allergosorbent test inhibition and isoelectric focusing. Parthenium reference allergen discs and positive reference serum were also generated. These reference reagents could not only be used for the quantitation of Parthenium-specific IgE in the sera of rhinitis patients but also for the evaluation of allergenic activity (relative potency and lot-to-lot variation) of different batches of Parthenium pollen.

Generating synchronizable test sequences based on finite-statemachine with distributed ports

In the area of testing communication systems, the interfaces between systems to be tested and their testers have great impact on test generation and fault detectability. Several types of such interfaces have been standardized by the International Standardization Organization (ISO). A general distributed test architecture, containing distributed interfaces, has been presented in the literature for testing distributed systems based on the Open Distributing Processing (ODP) Basic Reference Model (BRM), which is a generalized version of ISO distributed test architecture. We study in this paper the issue of test selection with respect to such an test architecture. In particular, we consider communication systems that can be modeled by finite state machines with several distributed interfaces, called ports. A test generation method is developed for generating test sequences for such finite state machines, which is based on the idea of synchronizable test sequences. Starting from the initial effort by Sarikaya, a certain amount of work has been done for generating test sequences for finite state machines with respect to the ISO distributed test architecture, all based on the idea of modifying existing test generation methods to generate synchronizable test sequences. However, none studies the fault coverage provided by their methods. We investigate the issue of fault coverage and point out a fact that the methods given in the literature for the distributed test architecture cannot ensure the same fault coverage as the corresponding original testing methods. We also study the limitation of fault detectability in the distributed test architecture.

Baculovirus mediated high-level expression of luciferase in silkworm cells and larvae

Bombyx mori nuclear polyhedrosis virus (BmNPV)-based baculovirus expression system exploits silkworm larvae as an economical alternative to large-scale cell cultures for production of biomolecules. To generate recombinant BmNPV at high efficiency, we have achieved high efficiency transfection of B. mori cells, BmN, through lipofection. Optimal conditions for lipofection were standardized by quantification of the transient expression level of firefly luciferase (luc) reporter gene under control of an immediate early gene promoter of BmNPV Lipofection was 50-fold and 100-fold more efficient than the calcium phosphate method for transfecting BmN and Sf9 cells, respectively. Lipofection enabled us to generate a recombinant BmNPV (vBmluc), harboring luc under control of the strong polyhedrin promoter On infection with vBmluc, luciferase was expressed at very high levels, 170 mu g/10(6) BmN cells or 13 mg/larva. Expression of luciferase in vBmluc-infected larvae was visualized by luminescence emission instantaneously following luciferin injection generating ''glowing silkworms''.

Synthesis, properties and crystal structures of diastereomeric areneruthenium(II) chiral Schiff-base complexes

Diastereomers (SRu,Sc)-1a and (RRu,Sc)-1b, in a ratio of 85: 15 and formulated as [Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)Cl(L*)], have been prepared by treating [{Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)Cl2}2] with the sodium salt of (S)-α-methylbenzylsalicylaldimine (HL*) in tetrahydrofuran at –70 °C. The reaction of 1(1a+1b) with AgClO4 in acetone followed by an addition of PPh3 or 4-methylpyridine (4Me-py) leads to the formation of adducts [Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)(PPh3)(L*)]ClO42[(SRu,Sc)2a, (FRu,Sc)2b] and [Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)(4Me-py)(L*)]ClO43[(SRu,Sc)3a, (RRu,Sc)3b] in the diastereomeric ratios (SRu,Sc) : (RRu,Sc) of 2 : 98 and 76 : 24, respectively. Complex 1 crystallises with equal numbers of 1a and 1b molecules in an asymmetric unit of monoclinic space group P21 with a= 10.854(1), b= 17.090(1), c= 12.808(4)Å, β= 110.51(1)°, and Z= 4. The structure was refined to R= 0.0552 and R′= 0.0530 with 2893 reflections having I[gt-or-equal] 1.5σ(I). The absolute configurations of the chiral centres in the optically pure single crystal of the PPh3 adduct have been obtained from an X-ray study. Crystals of formulation [Ru(η-MeC6H4Pri-p)-(PPh3)(L*)]2[ClO4][PF6]·1.5 CHCl3, obtained in presence of both ClO4 and PF6 anions, belong to the non-centric triclinic space group P1 with a= 10.852(2), b= 14.028(1), c= 15.950(2)Å, α= 91.51(1), β= 105.97(1), γ= 106.11(1)°, and Z= 2. The final residuals were R= 0.0713, R′= 0.0752 with 7283 reflections having I[gt-or-equal] 2.5σ(I). The crystal structures of 1a,1b, and the PPh3 adduct (2b,2b′) consist of a ruthenium(II) centre bonded to a η-p-cymene, a bidentate chelating Schiff base, and a unidentate ligand (Cl or PPh3). The chirooptical properties of the complexes have been studied using 1H NMR and CD spectral data. The presence of a low-energy barrier for the intermediate involved in these reactions, showing both retention as well as inversion of the metal configuration, is discussed.

Magneto-structural correlation in (mu-alkoxo/hydroxo)(mu-carboxylato)dicopper(II) systems: Synthesis, X-ray structure and magnetic properties of aquo(mu-hydroxo) (mu-arylcarboxylato)bis(N,N,N ',N '-tetramethylethane-1,2-diamine)dicopper(II) diperchlorate

Asymmetrically dibridged dicopper(II) complexes, [Cu-2(OH)(O2CC6H4-p-Me)(tmen)(2)(H2O)](ClO4)(2) (1) and [Cu-2(OH)(O2CC6H4-p-OMe)(tmen)(2)(H2O)](ClO4)(2) (2) (tmen = N,N,N',N'-tetramethylethane-1,2-diamine), were prepared and structurally characterized. Complex 1 crystallizes in the monoclinic space group P2(1)/a with a = 17.718(2), b = 9.869(1), c = 19.677(2) Angstrom, beta = 115.16(1)degrees, V = 3114.3(6) Angstrom(3) and Z = 4. The structure was refined to R(wR(2)) = 0.067(0.178). Complex 2 crystallizes in the monoclinic space group P2(1)/a with a = 17.695(3), b = 9.574(4), c = 20.104(2) Angstrom, beta = 114.18(1)degrees, V = 3107(1) Angstrom(3) and Z = 4. The final residuals are R(wR(2)) = 0.067(0.182). The complexes have a [Cu-2(mu-OH)(mu-OH)(mu-O2CAr)](2+) core with tmen Ligands occupying the terminal sites of the core. In addition, one copper is axially bound to a water molecule. The Cu ... Cu distances and the Cu-OH Cu angles in the core are 3.394(1) Angstrom, 124.4(2)degrees for 1 and 3.374(1) Angstrom, 123.3(3)degrees for 2. The complexes show axial X-band EPR spectral features in methanol glass at 77 K giving g(perpendicular to) = 2.02, g(parallel to) = 2.3 (A(parallel to) = 165 x 10(-4) cm(-1)) and a visible band near similar to 630 nm in methanol. The complexes are weakly antiferromagnetic. A theoretical fit of the magnetic susceptibility data in the temperature range 40-295 K gives -J = 10 cm(-1), g = 2.05 for 1 and -J = 10 cm(-1), g = 2.0 for 2. Plots of -2J versus the Cu-OH-Cu angle (phi) in this class of asymmetrically dibridged dicopper(II) complexes having d(x2-y2)-d(x2-y2) magnetic orbitals show a linear magneto-structural correlation: -2J(cm(-1)) = 11.48 phi(deg) - 1373.

Data rectification and detection of trend shifts in jet engine path measurements using median filters and fuzzy logic

Filtering methods are explored for removing noise from data while preserving sharp edges that many indicate a trend shift in gas turbine measurements. Linear filters are found to be have problems with removing noise while preserving features in the signal. The nonlinear hybrid median filter is found to accurately reproduce the root signal from noisy data. Simulated faulty data and fault-free gas path measurement data are passed through median filters and health residuals for the data set are created. The health residual is a scalar norm of the gas path measurement deltas and is used to partition the faulty engine from the healthy engine using fuzzy sets. The fuzzy detection system is developed and tested with noisy data and with filtered data. It is found from tests with simulated fault-free and faulty data that fuzzy trend shift detection based on filtered data is very accurate with no false alarms and negligible missed alarms.

Incremental-angle and angular velocity estimation using a star sensor

A method is described for estimating the incremental angle and angular velocity of a spacecraft using integrated rate parameters with the help of a star sensor alone. The chief advantage of this method is that the measured stars need not be identified, whereas the identification of the stars is necessary in earlier methods. This proposed estimation can be carried out with all of the available measurements by a simple linear Kalman filter, albeit with a time-varying sensitivity matrix. The residuals of estimated angular velocity by the proposed spacecraft incremental-angle and angular velocity estimation method are as accurate as the earlier methods. This method also enables the spacecraft attitude to be reconstructed for mapping the stars into an imaginary unit sphere in the body reference frame, which will preserve the true angular separation of the stars. This will pave the way for identification of the stars using any angular separation or triangle matching techniques applied to even a narrow field of view sensor that is made to sweep the sky. A numerical simulation for inertial as well as Earth pointing spacecraft is carried out to establish the results.

Optimal scheduling of multiple chlorine sources in water distribution systems

The specified range of free chlorine residual (between minimum and maximum) in water distribution systems needs to be maintained to avoid deterioration of the microbial quality of water, control taste and/or odor problems, and hinder formation of carcino-genic disinfection by-products. Multiple water quality sources for providing chlorine input are needed to maintain the chlorine residuals within a specified range throughout the distribution system. The determination of source dosage (i.e., chlorine concentrations/chlorine mass rates) at water quality sources to satisfy the above objective under dynamic conditions is a complex process. A nonlinear optimization problem is formulated to determine the chlorine dosage at the water quality sources subjected to minimum and maximum constraints on chlorine concentrations at all monitoring nodes. A genetic algorithm (GA) approach in which decision variables (chlorine dosage) are coded as binary strings is used to solve this highly nonlinear optimization problem, with nonlinearities arising due to set-point sources and non-first-order reactions. Application of the model is illustrated using three sample water distribution systems, and it indicates that the GA,is a useful tool for evaluating optimal water quality source chlorine schedules.

Efficient Algorithms for Combinatorial Auctions with Volume Discounts Arising in Web Service Composition

Web services are now a key ingredient of software services offered by software enterprises. Many standardized web services are now available as commodity offerings from web service providers. An important problem for a web service requester is the web service composition problem which involves selecting the right mix of web service offerings to execute an end-to-end business process. Web service offerings are now available in bundled form as composite web services and more recently, volume discounts are also on offer, based on the number of executions of web services requested. In this paper, we develop efficient algorithms for the web service composition problem in the presence of composite web service offerings and volume discounts. We model this problem as a combinatorial auction with volume discounts. We first develop efficient polynomial time algorithms when the end-to-end service involves a linear workflow of web services. Next we develop efficient polynomial time algorithms when the end-to-end service involves a tree workflow of web services.

Clonal propagation of Phyllanthus amarus: A hepatoprotector

Background: The micropropagation protocol for Phyllanthus amarus, an important medicinal herb used widely for the treatment of hepatitis in ethnomedicinal systems, was standardized with shoot tip and single node explants. Materials and Methods: The micropropagation was carried out for the hyperproducing ecotype (phyllanthin content 463.828 ppm; hypophyllanthin content: 75.469 ppm) collected from Aanaikatti, Coimbatore, and grown in mist chamber, CPMB, TNAU. For micropropagation studies, the leaves were trimmed off and the shoot tips (6 mm long) and nodal segments (single node) were used for initiation. Results: Shoot tips and single node explants gave a maximum of 6.00 and 7.00 multiple shoots per explant with Benzyl Amino Purine (BAP) (1.0mg/L mg/L). Upon subculturing, a shoot length of around 7 cm with an average of eight internodes per shoot was observed after 20 days in the elongation medium supplemented with BAP (0.2 mg/Lmg/L) and Indole Acetic Acid (IAA) (2.0 mg/L). Seven to ten adventitious roots developed when the elongated microshoots were cultured in half strength MS medium with Indole Butyric Acid (IBA) (2.0 mg/Lmg/L) and NAA (1.0 mg/L mg/L) in 15-20 days after transfer. The rooted shoots acclimatized successfully to field conditions. Conclusion: A method for successful micropropagation of the valuable medicinal plant was established which will provide a better source for continuous supply of plants for manufacturing drugs.