Non-linear regression model for spatial variation in precipitation chemistry for South India

Chemical composition of rainwater changes from sea to inland under the influence of several major factors - topographic location of area, its distance from sea, annual rainfall. A model is developed here to quantify the variation in precipitation chemistry under the influence of inland distance and rainfall amount. Various sites in India categorized as 'urban', 'suburban' and 'rural' have been considered for model development. pH, HCO3, NO3 and Mg do not change much from coast to inland while, SO4 and Ca change is subjected to local emissions. Cl and Na originate solely from sea salinity and are the chemistry parameters in the model. Non-linear multiple regressions performed for the various categories revealed that both rainfall amount and precipitation chemistry obeyed a power law reduction with distance from sea. Cl and Na decrease rapidly for the first 100 km distance from sea, then decrease marginally for the next 100 km, and later stabilize. Regression parameters estimated for different cases were found to be consistent (R-2 similar to 0.8). Variation in one of the parameters accounted for urbanization. Model was validated using data points from the southern peninsular region of the country. Estimates are found to be within 99.9% confidence interval. Finally, this relationship between the three parameters - rainfall amount, coastline distance, and concentration (in terms of Cl and Na) was validated with experiments conducted in a small experimental watershed in the south-west India. Chemistry estimated using the model was in good correlation with observed values with a relative error of similar to 5%. Monthly variation in the chemistry is predicted from a downscaling model and then compared with the observed data. Hence, the model developed for rain chemistry is useful in estimating the concentrations at different spatio-temporal scales and is especially applicable for south-west region of India. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new Fuzzy-LOGIC based Model for Chlorophyll-a in Pulicat Lagoon, India

Coastal lagoons are complex ecosystems exhibiting a high degree of non-linearity in the distribution and exchange of nutrients dissolved in the water column due to their spatio-temporal characteristics. This factor has a direct influence on the concentrations of chlorophyll-a, an indicator of the primary productivity in the water bodies as lakes and lagoons. Moreover the seasonal variability in the characteristics of large-scale basins further contributes to the uncertainties in the data on the physico-chemical and biological characteristics of the lagoons. Considering the above, modelling the distributions of the nutrients with respect to the chlorophyll-concentrations, hence requires an effective approach which will appropriately account for the non-linearity of the ecosystem as well as the uncertainties in the available data. In the present investigation, fuzzy logic was used to develop a new model of the primary production for Pulicat lagoon, Southeast coast of India. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the concentrations of chlorophyll-a in the lagoon was highly influenced by the dissolved concentrations of nitrate, nitrites and phosphorous to different extents over different seasons and years. A high degree of agreement was obtained between the actual field values and those predicted by the new fuzzy model (d = 0.881 to 0.788) for the years 2005 and 2006, illustrating the efficiency of the model in predicting the values of chlorophyll-a in the lagoon.

A decidable temporal logic with repeating values

Various logical formalisms with the freeze quantifier have been recently considered to model computer systems even though this is a powerful mechanism that often leads to undecidability. In this paper, we study a linear-time temporal logic with past-time operators such that the freeze operator is only used to express that some value from an infinite set is repeated in the future or in the past. Such a restriction has been inspired by a recent work on spatio-temporal logics. We show decidability of finitary and infinitary satisfiability by reduction into the verification of temporal properties in Petri nets. This is a surprising result since the logic is closed under negation, contains future-time and past-time temporal operators and can express the nonce property and its negation. These ingredients are known to lead to undecidability with a more liberal use of the freeze quantifier.

Temporal Logics of Repeating Values

Various logical formalisms with the freeze quantifier have been recently considered to model computer systems even though this is a powerful mechanism that often leads to undecidability. In this article, we study a linear-time temporal logic with past-time operators such that the freeze operator is only used to express that some value from an infinite set is repeated in the future or in the past. Such a restriction has been inspired by a recent work on spatio-temporal logics that suggests such a restricted use of the freeze operator. We show decidability of finitary and infinitary satisfiability by reduction into the verification of temporal properties in Petri nets by proposing a symbolic representation of models. This is a quite surprising result in view of the expressive power of the logic since the logic is closed under negation, contains future-time and past-time temporal operators and can express the nonce property and its negation. These ingredients are known to lead to undecidability with a more liberal use of the freeze quantifier. The article also contains developments about the relationships between temporal logics with the freeze operator and counter automata as well as reductions into first-order logics over data words.

An inquisitive analysis on the temporal variation of return stroke current essential for producing observed remote electro-magnetic fields

The gross characteristics of spatio-temporal current evolution in the return stroke phase of a cloud-to-ground lightning are rather well defined. However, they by themselves do not ensure the salient features for the resulting remote Electro- Magnetic Fields (EMFs). In spite of significant efforts in the engineering models wherein, the spatio-temporal current distribution all along the channel is specified by the design, all the salient features of remote EMFs could not be achieved. Only the current evolution that ensures the basic characteristics along with its ability to reproduce all the salient features of remote EMFs ranging from 50 m – 200 km from the lightning channel, can be considered as a realistic return stroke channel current. In view of this, the present work intends to investigate on the required fine features of the return stroke current evolution that yields all the desired features. To ensure that the current evolution is not arbitrary but obeys the involved basic physical processes, a recently developed physical model will be employed for the analysis.

Model-free simulations for compressible mixing layer

Confined supersonic mixing layer is explored through model-free simulations. Both two- and three-dimensional spatio-temporal simulations were carried out employing higher order finite difference scheme as well as finite volume scheme based on open source software (OpenFOAM) to understand the effect of three-dimensionality on the development of mixing layer. It is observed that although the instantaneous structures exhibit three-dimensional features, the average pressure and velocities are predominantly two-dimensional. The computed wall pressures match well with experimental results fairly well, although three-dimensional simulation underpredicts the wall pressure in the downstream direction. The self-similarity of the velocity profiles is obtained within the duct length for all the simulations. Although the mixing layer thicknesses differ among different simulations, their growth rate is nearly the same. Significant differences are observed for species and temperature distribution between two- and three-dimensional calculations, and two-dimensional calculations do not match the experimental observation of smooth variations in species mass fraction profiles as reported in literature. Reynolds stress distribution for three-dimensional calculations show profiles with less peak values compared to two-dimensional calculations; while normal stress anisotropy is higher for three-dimensional case.

Improved modeling of groundwater recharge in agricultural watersheds using a combination of crop model and remote sensing

For improved water management and efficiency of use in agriculture, studies dealing with coupled crop-surface water-groundwater models are needed. Such integrated models of crop and hydrology can provide accurate quantification of spatio-temporal variations of water balance parameters such as soil moisture store, evapotranspiration and recharge in a catchment. Performance of a coupled crop-hydrology model would depend on the availability of a calibrated crop model for various irrigated/rainfed crops and also on an accurate knowledge of soil hydraulic parameters in the catchment at relevant scale. Moreover, such a coupled model should be designed so as to enable the use/assimilation of recent satellite remote sensing products (optical and microwave) in order to model the processes at catchment scales. In this study we present a framework to couple a crop model with a groundwater model for applications to irrigated groundwater agricultural systems. We discuss the calibration of the STICS crop model and present a methodology to estimate the soil hydraulic parameters by inversion of crop model using both ground and satellite based data. Using this methodology we demonstrate the feasibility of estimation of potential recharge due to spatially varying soil/crop matrix.

Large latitudinal gradients and temporal heterogeneity in aerosol black carbon and its mass mixing ratio over southern and northern oceans observed during a trans-continental cruise experiment

Extensive, and collocated measurements of the mass concentrations (M-B) of aerosol black carbon (BC) and (M-T) of composite aerosols were made over the Arabian Sea, tropical Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean during a trans-continental cruise experiment. Our investigations show that MB remains extremely low(<50 ng m(-3)) and remarkably steady (in space and time) in the Southern Ocean (20 degrees S to 56 degrees S). In contrast, large latitudinal gradients exist north of similar to 20 degrees S; M-B increasing exponentially to reach as high as 2000 ng m(-3) in the Arabian Sea (similar to 8 degrees N). Interestingly, the share of BC showed a distinctly different latitudinal variation, with a peak close to the equator and decreasing on either side. Large fluctuations were seen in M-T over Southern Ocean associated with enhanced production of sea-salt aerosols in response to sea-surface wind speed. These spatio-temporal changes in M-B and its mixing ratio have important implications to regional and global climate.

Numerical Electromagnetic Analysis of Current and Voltage Distribution along Down Conductors and Towers Hit by Direct Lightning

In order to answer the practically important question of whether the down conductors of lightning protection systems to tall towers and buildings can be electrically isolated from the structure itself, this work is conducted. As a first step in this regard, it is presumed that the down conductor placed on metallic tower will be a pessimistic representation of the actual problem. This opinion was based on the fact that the proximity of heavy metallic structure will have a large damping effect. The post-stroke current distributions along the down conductors and towers, which can be quite different from that in the lightning channel, govern the post-stroke near field and the resulting gradient in the soil. Also, for a reliable estimation of the actual stroke current from the measured down conductor currents, it is essential to know the current distribution characteristics along the down conductors. In view of these, the present work attempts to deduce the post-stroke current and voltage distribution along typical down conductors and towers. A solution of the governing field equations on an electromagnetic model of the system is sought for the investigation. Simulation results providing the spatio-temporal distribution of the post-stroke current and voltage has provided very interesting results. It is concluded that it is almost impossible to achieve electrical isolation between the structure and the down conductor. Furthermore, there will be significant induction into the steel matrix of the supporting structure.

Support Vector Machine Approach to Downscale Precipitation in Climate Change Scenarios

Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long‐term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid‐latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio‐temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub‐division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub‐division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub‐divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.

Analysis for the Reflected Waves Transmitted on to the Channel by Tall Grounded Objects Using a Special Case

During lightning strike to a tall grounded object (TGO), reflected current waves from TGO are transmitted on to the channel. With regard to these transmitted waves, there seems to be some uncertainties like: 1) will they get reflected at the main wavefront; and 2) if so, what would be their final status. This study makes an attempt to address these issues considering a special case of strike to a TGO involving equal channel core and TGO radii. A macroscopic physical model for the lightning return stroke is adopted for the intended work. Analysis showed that the waves transmitted on to the channel merges with the main wavefront without any sign of reflection. Investigation revealed that: 1) the nonlinear spatio-temporal resistance profile of the channel at the wavefront is mainly responsible for the same; and 2) the distributed source provides additional support. The earlier findings are not limited to the special case of TGO considered. In spite of considering equal TGO and channel core radii, salient features of the model predicted remote electromagnetic fields agree well with the measured data reported in literature.

Analysis for the Reflected Waves Transmitted on to the Channel by Tall Grounded Objects Using a Special Case

During lightning strike to a tall grounded object (TGO), reflected current waves from TGO are transmitted on to the channel. With regard to these transmitted waves, there seems to be some uncertainties like: 1) will they get reflected at the main wavefront; and 2) if so, what would be their final status. This study makes an attempt to address these issues considering a special case of strike to a TGO involving equal channel core and TGO radii. A macroscopic physical model for the lightning return stroke is adopted for the intended work. Analysis showed that the waves transmitted on to the channel merges with the main wavefront without any sign of reflection. Investigation revealed that: 1) the nonlinear spatio-temporal resistance profile of the channel at the wavefront is mainly responsible for the same; and 2) the distributed source provides additional support. The earlier findings are not limited to the special case of TGO considered. In spite of considering equal TGO and channel core radii, salient features of the model predicted remote electromagnetic fields agree well with the measured data reported in literature.

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India

A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June-September), with a peak during July-August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse rain-gauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system.

A study of epileptogenic network structures in rat hippocampal cultures using first spike latencies during synchronization events

Study of hypersynchronous activity is of prime importance for combating epilepsy. Studies on network structure typically reconstruct the network by measuring various aspects of the interaction between neurons and subsequently measure the properties of the reconstructed network. In sub-sampled networks such methods lead to significant errors in reconstruction. Using rat hippocampal neurons cultured on a multi-electrode array dish and a glutamate injury model of epilepsy in vitro, we studied synchronous activity in neuronal networks. Using the first spike latencies in various neurons during a network burst, we extract various recurring spatio-temporal onset patterns in the networks. Comparing the patterns seen in control and injured networks, we observe that injured networks express a wide diversity in their foci (origin) and activation pattern, while control networks show limited diversity. Furthermore, we note that onset patterns in glutamate injured networks show a positive correlation between synchronization delay and physical distance between neurons, while control networks do not.

A study of epileptogenic network structures in rat hippocampal cultures using first spike latencies during synchronization events

Study of hypersynchronous activity is of prime importance for combating epilepsy. Studies on network structure typically reconstruct the network by measuring various aspects of the interaction between neurons and subsequently measure the properties of the reconstructed network. In sub-sampled networks such methods lead to significant errors in reconstruction. Using rat hippocampal neurons cultured on a multi-electrode array dish and a glutamate injury model of epilepsy in vitro, we studied synchronous activity in neuronal networks. Using the first spike latencies in various neurons during a network burst, we extract various recurring spatio-temporal onset patterns in the networks. Comparing the patterns seen in control and injured networks, we observe that injured networks express a wide diversity in their foci (origin) and activation pattern, while control networks show limited diversity. Furthermore, we note that onset patterns in glutamate injured networks show a positive correlation between synchronization delay and physical distance between neurons, while control networks do not.