Multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction of daily chaotic rainfall with climate inputs

The basic characteristic of a chaotic system is its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions. A limit to predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to this sensitivity and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha basin, India for the period 1955-2000 is used for the study. It is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with the dimension varying from 5 to 7. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The chaotic nature of each of these variables is confirmed using false nearest neighbor method. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to eight principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with eight PCs) is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction employing local approximation method is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is decreased or in other words predictability is increased by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be altered by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Photoluminescence decay rate engineering of CdSe quantum dots in ensemble arrays embedded with gold nano-antennae

We discuss experimental results on the ability to significantly tune the photoluminescence decay rates of CdSe quantum dots embedded in an ordered template, using lightly doped small gold nanoparticles (nano-antennae), of relatively low optical efficiency. We observe both enhancement and quenching of photoluminescence intensity of the quantum dots varying monotonically with increasing volume fraction of added gold nanoparticles, with respect to undoped quantum dot arrays. However, the corresponding variation in lifetime of photoluminescence spectra decay shows a hitherto unobserved, non-monotonic variation with gold nanoparticle doping. We also demonstrate that Purcell effect is quite effective for the larger (5 nm) gold nano-antenna leading to more than four times enhanced radiative rate at spectral resonance, for largest doping and about 1.75 times enhancement for off-resonance. Significantly for spectral off-resonance samples, we could simultaneously engineer reduction of non-radiative decay rate along with increase of radiative decay rate. Non-radiative decay dominates the system for the smaller (2 nm) gold nano-antenna setting the limit on how small these plasmonic nano-antennae could be to be effective in engineering significant enhancement in radiative decay rate and, hence, the overall quantum efficiency of quantum dot based hybrid photonic assemblies.

Constraining the low-energy pion electromagnetic form factor with space-like and phase of time-like data

The Taylor coefficients c and d of the EM form factor of the pion are constrained using analyticity, knowledge of the phase of the form factor in the time-like region, 4m(pi)(2) <= t <= t(in) and its value at one space-like point, using as input the (g - 2) of the muon. This is achieved using the technique of Lagrange multipliers, which gives a transparent expression for the corresponding bounds. We present a detailed study of the sensitivity of the bounds to the choice of time-like phase and errors present in the space-like data, taken from recent experiments. We find that our results constrain c stringently. We compare our results with those in the literature and find agreement with the chiral perturbation-theory results for c. We obtain d similar to O(10) GeV-6 when c is set to the chiral perturbation-theory values.

Trehalose Toxicity in Cuscuta refexal Correlation With low Trehalase Activity

A toxic effect of a,a-trehalose in an angiospermic plant, Cuscuta reflexa (dodder), Is described. This disaccharide and Its analogs, 2-aminotrehalose and 4-aminotbhakose, induced a raid blackening of the terminal region of the vine which is Involved in elongation growth. From the results of in vitro growth of several angkiopermic plants and determination of trehalase activity in them, it is concluded that the toxic effect of trehalose in Cucaa is because of the very low trehalas activity In the vine. As a result, trehalose accumulates In the vine and interferes with some process closely associated with growth. The growth potential of Lemma (a duckweed) in a medium containing trehalose as the carbon source was ihreversibly lost upon addition of trealosamine, an Inhibitor of trehalase activity. It is concluded that, if allowed to accumulate within the tissue, trehalose may be potentiaMly toxic or inhibitory to higher plants in generaL The presence of trhalase actvity in plants, where Its substrate has not been found to occur, is envisged to relieve the plant from the toxic effects of trehalose which it may encounter in soil or during association with fungi or insects.

Low temperature fluorination of sulphur compounds with elemental fluorine

Low temperature fluorination technique is adopted for fluorination of the following sulphur compounds in freon-11 medium (1) Sulphur dioxide (2) Thionyl chloride (3) Sulphuryl chloride (4) Tetrasulphur tetra nitride and (5) Sulphur bromide. All the compounds undergo oxidative fluorination to give rise to sulphur-fluorine compounds except sulphuryl chloride which resists fluorination. Sulphuryl chloride thus behaves as a good solvent medium for fluorination of other reactive compounds like elemental sulphur. Details of the experimental procedures adopted and the identification of the products will be presented.

A low cost demagnetizer with controllable cycle and adjustable level

Demagnetization to zero remanent value or to a predetermined value is of interest to magnet manufacturers and material users. Conventional methods of demagnetization using a varying alternating demagnetizing field, under a damped oscillatory or conveyor system, result in either high cost for demagnetization or large power dissipation. A simple technique using thyristors is presented for demagnetizing the material. Power consumption is mainly in the first two half-cycles of applied voltage. Hence power dissipation is very much reduced. An optimum value calculation for a thyristor triggering angle for demagnetizing high coercive materials is also presented.

Integrating voice and data on SALAN: an experimental local area network

This paper is concerned with the integration of voice and data on an experimental local area network used by the School of Automation, of the Indian Institute of Science. SALAN (School of Automation Local Area Network) consists of a number of microprocessor-based communication nodes linked to a shared coaxial cable transmission medium. The communication nodes handle the various low-level functions associated with computer communication, and interface user data equipment to the network. SALAN at present provides a file transfer facility between an Intel Series III microcomputer development system and a Texas Instruments Model 990/4 microcomputer system. Further, a packet voice communication system has also been implemented on SALAN. The various aspects of the design and implementation of the above two utilities are discussed.

Fractional power dependence of rate on activation energy for reactions with very low internal barriers

The dynamics of reactions with low internal barriers are studied both analytically and numerically for two different models. Exact expressions for the average rate,kI, are obtained by solving the associated first passage time problems. Both the average rate constant, kI, and the numerically calculated long-time rate constant, kL, show a fractional power law dependence on the barrier height for very low barriers. The crossover of the reaction dynamics from low to high barrier is investigated.

Low-Temperature Fluorination Of Sulfur-Compounds With Elemental Fluorine

Low temperature fluorination technique is adopted for fluorination of the following sulphur compounds in freon-11 medium (1) Sulphur dioxide (2) Thionyl chloride (3) Sulphuryl chloride (4) Tetrasulphur tetra nitride and (5) Sulphur bromide. All the compounds undergo oxidative fluorination to give rise to sulphur-fluorine compounds except sulphuryl chloride which resists fluorination. Sulphuryl chloride thus behaves as a good solvent medium for fluorination of other reactive compounds like elemental sulphur. Details of the experimental procedures adopted and the identification of the products will be presented

Surface Discharge Studies with Uniform Field Electrodes at Low Pressures

An investigation of power frequency (50 Hz) surface partial discharges in dry air, using 21r/3 Rogowski profile electrodes in the low pressure range of 0.067 to 91.333 kPa, shows that for the discharges occurring symmetrically around the electrodes and just outside the uniform field region, the breakdown voltages are 20 to 30% lower than those accounted for by the usual Paschen values. Emphasis, therefore, has been given to modified values of breakdown voltages for any useful calculations. The effect of reduced pressure on inception voltage has been discussed and an attempt has been made to explain the difference between the observed and calculated values on the basis of a pressure-dependent secondary ionization coefficient. It is shown that increasing the insulation thickness in a critical pressure range (0.067 to 0.400 kPa) does not allow any significant increase in the discharge free working stress of the insulation system. At higher pressures (>0.400 kPa) the increase in inception voltage with thickness and pressure follows an equation which is expected to hold for other insulating materials as well.

Mass transfer with surface reaction in arrays of cylinders at low reynolds and high peclet numbers

Creeping flow hydrodynamics combined with diffusion boundary layer equation are solved in conjunction with free-surface cell model to obtain a solution of the problem of convective transfer with surface reaction for flow parallel to an array of cylindrical pellets at high Peclet numbers and under fast and intermediate kinetics regimes. Expressions are derived for surface concentration, boundary layer thickness, mass flux and Sherwood number in terms of Damkoehler number, Peclet number and void fraction of the array. The theoretical results are evaluated numerically.

Algebraic distributed space-time codes with low ML decoding complexity

"Extended Clifford algebras" are introduced as a means to obtain low ML decoding complexity space-time block codes. Using left regular matrix representations of two specific classes of extended Clifford algebras, two systematic algebraic constructions of full diversity Distributed Space-Time Codes (DSTCs) are provided for any power of two number of relays. The left regular matrix representation has been shown to naturally result in space-time codes meeting the additional constraints required for DSTCs. The DSTCs so constructed have the salient feature of reduced Maximum Likelihood (ML) decoding complexity. In particular, the ML decoding of these codes can be performed by applying the lattice decoder algorithm on a lattice of four times lesser dimension than what is required in general. Moreover these codes have a uniform distribution of power among the relays and in time, thus leading to a low Peak to Average Power Ratio at the relays.

Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.