Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga-Bhadra river basin, India with HEC-HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the TungaBhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC-HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear-regression-based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub-basins of the study area. The large-scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 20112040, 20412070, and 20712099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub-basins in the study area.

Geochemical behaviour of dissolved trace elements in a monsoon-dominated tropical river basin, Southwestern India

The study presents a 3-year time series data on dissolved trace elements and rare earth elements (REEs) in a monsoon-dominated river basin, the Nethravati River in tropical Southwestern India. The river basin lies on the metamorphic transition boundary which separates the Peninsular Gneiss and Southern Granulitic province belonging to Archean and Tertiary-Quaternary period (Western Dharwar Craton). The basin lithology is mainly composed of granite gneiss, charnockite and metasediment. This study highlights the importance of time series data for better estimation of metal fluxes and to understand the geochemical behaviour of metals in a river basin. The dissolved trace elements show seasonality in the river water metal concentrations forming two distinct groups of metals. First group is composed of heavy metals and minor elements that show higher concentrations during dry season and lesser concentrations during the monsoon season. Second group is composed of metals belonging to lanthanides and actinides with higher concentration in the monsoon and lower concentrations during the dry season. Although the metal concentration of both the groups appears to be controlled by the discharge, there are important biogeochemical processes affecting their concentration. This includes redox reactions (for Fe, Mn, As, Mo, Ba and Ce) and pH-mediated adsorption/desorption reactions (for Ni, Co, Cr, Cu and REEs). The abundance of Fe and Mn oxyhydroxides as a result of redox processes could be driving the geochemical redistribution of metals in the river water. There is a Ce anomaly (Ce/Ce*) at different time periods, both negative and positive, in case of dissolved phase, whereas there is positive anomaly in the particulate and bed sediments. The Ce anomaly correlates with the variations in the dissolved oxygen indicating the redistribution of Ce between particulate and dissolved phase under acidic to neutral pH and lower concentrations of dissolved organic carbon. Unlike other tropical and major world rivers, the effect of organic complexation on metal variability is negligible in the Nethravati River water.

Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale ( measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W m(-2) yr(-1) in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios.

Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations. Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Computer model for vedavati ground water basin. Part 1. Well field model

It is shown that a leaky aquifer model can be used for well field analysis in hard rock areas, treating the upper weathered and clayey layers as a composite unconfined aquitard overlying a deeper fractured aquifer. Two long-duration pump test studies are reported in granitic and schist regions in the Vedavati river basin. The validity of simplifications in the analytical solution is verified by finite difference computations.

Computer-model for vedavati groundwater basin .3. Irrigation potential

An estimate of the irrigation potential over and above the existing utilization was made based on the ground water potential in the Vedavati river basin. The estimate is based on assumed crops and cropping patterns as per existing practice in the various taluks of the basin. Irrigation potential was estimated talukwise based on the available ground water potential identified from the simulation study. It is estimated that 84,100 hectares of additional land can be brought under irrigation from ground water in the entire basin.

Influence of land use changes in river basins on diversity and distribution of amphibians

Land-use changes influence local biodiversity directly, and also cumulatively, contribute to regional and global changes in natural systems and quality of life. Consequent to these, direct impacts on the natural resources that support the health and integrity of living beings are evident in recent times. The Western Ghats being one of the global biodiversity hotspots, is reeling under a tremendous pressure from human induced changes in terms of developmental projects like hydel or thermal power plants, big dams, mining activities, unplanned agricultural practices,monoculture plantations, illegal timber logging, etc. This has led to the once contiguous forest habitats to be fragmented in patches, which in turn has led to the shrinkage of original habitat for the wildlife, change in the hydrological regime of the catchment, decreased inflow in streams,human-animal conflicts, etc. Under such circumstances, a proper management practice is called for requiring suitable biological indicators to show the impact of these changes, set priority regions and in developing models for conservation planning. Amphibians are regarded as one of the best biological indicators due to their sensitivity to even the slightest changes in the environment and hence they could be used as surrogates in conservation and management practices. They are the predominating vertebrates with a high degree of endemism (78%) in Western Ghats. The present study is an attempt to bring in the impacts of various land-uses on anuran distribution in three river basins. Sampling was carried out for amphibians during all seasons of 2003-2006 in basins of Sharavathi, Aghanashini and Bedthi. There are as many as 46 species in the region, one of which is new to science and nearly 59% of them are endemic to the Western Ghats. They belong to nine families, Dicroglossidae being represented by 14 species,followed by Rhacophoridae (9 species) and Ranidae (5 species). Species richness is high in Sharavathi river basin, with 36 species, followed by Bedthi 33 and Aghanashini 27. The impact of land-use changes, was investigated in the upper catchment of Sharavathi river basin. Species diversity indices, relative abundance values, percentage endemics gave clear indication of differences in each sub-catchment. Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) was calculated between species richness, endemics, environmental descriptors, land-use classes and fragmentation metrics. Principal component analysis was performed to depict the influence of these variables. Results show that sub-catchments with lesser percentage of forest, low canopy cover, higher amount of agricultural area, low rainfall have low species richness, less endemic species and abundant non-endemic species, whereas endemism, species richness and abundance of endemic species are more in the sub-catchments with high tree density, endemic trees, canopy cover, rainfall and lower amount of agriculture fields. This analysis aided in prioritising regions in the Sharavathi river basin for further conservation measures.

Controls on intense silicate weathering in a tropical river, southwestern India

The Silicate Weathering Rate (SWR) and associated Carbon dioxide Consumption Rate (CCR) in tropical silicate terrain is assessed through a study of the major ion chemistry in a small west flowing river of Peninsular India, the Nethravati River. The specific features of the river basin are high mean annual rainfall and temperature, high runoff and a Precambrian basement composed of granitic-gneiss, charnockite and minor metasediments. The water samples (n = 56) were collected from three locations along the Nethravati River and from two of its tributaries over a period of twelve months. Chemical Weathering Rate (CWR) for the entire watershed is calculated by applying rainwater correction using river chloride as a tracer. Chemical Weathering Rate in the Nethravati watershed is estimated to 44 t.km(-2).y(-1) encompassing a SWR of 42 t.km(-2).y(-1) and a maximum carbonate contribution of 2 t.km(-2).y(-1). This SWR is among the highest reported for granito-gneissic terrains. The assessed CCR is 2.9 . 10(5) mol.km(-2).y(-1). The weathering index (Re). calculated from molecular ratios of dissolved cations and silica in the river, suggests an intense silicate weathering leading to kaolinite-gibbsite precipitation in the weathering covers. The intense SWR and CCR could be due to the combination of high runoff and temperature along with the thickness and nature of the weathering cover. The comparison of silicate weathering fluxes with other watersheds reveals that under similar morpho-climatic settings basalt weathering would be 2.5 times higher than the granite-gneissic rocks. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India

A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June-September), with a peak during July-August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse rain-gauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system.

Causality analysis of groundwater dynamics based on a Vector Autoregressive model in the semi-arid basin of Gundal (South India)

Causal relationships existing between observed levels of groundwater in a semi-arid sub-basin of the Kabini River basin (Karnataka state, India) are investigated in this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model is used for this purpose. Its structure is built on an upstream/downstream interaction network based on observed hydro-physical properties. Exogenous climatic forcing is used as an input based on cumulated rainfall departure. Optimal models are obtained thanks to a trial approach and are used as a proxy of the dynamics to derive causal networks. It appears to be an interesting tool for analysing the causal relationships existing inside the basin. The causal network reveals 3 main regions: the Northeastern part of the Gundal basin is closely coupled to the outlet dynamics. The Northwestern part is mainly controlled by the climatic forcing and only marginally linked to the outlet dynamic. Finally, the upper part of the basin plays as a forcing rather than a coupling with the lower part of the basin allowing for a separate analysis of this local behaviour. The analysis also reveals differential time scales at work inside the basin when comparing upstream oriented with downstream oriented causalities. In the upper part of the basin, time delays are close to 2 months in the upward direction and lower than 1 month in the downward direction. These time scales are likely to be good indicators of the hydraulic response time of the basin which is a parameter usually difficult to estimate practically. This suggests that, at the sub-basin scale, intra-annual time scales would be more relevant scales for analysing or modelling tropical basin dynamics in hard rock (granitic and gneissic) aquifers ubiquitous in south India. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Characterization of groundwater chemistry under the influence of lithologic and anthropogenic factors along a climatic gradient in Upper Cauvery basin, South India

Hydrogeological and climatic effect on chemical behavior of groundwater along a climatic gradient is studied along a river basin. `Semi-arid' (500-800 mm of mean annual rainfall), `sub-humid' (800-1,200 mm/year) and `humid' (1,200-1,500 mm/year) are the climatic zones chosen along the granito-gneissic plains of Kabini basin in South India for the present analysis. Data on groundwater chemistry is initially checked for its quality using NICB ratio (<+/- 5 %), EC versus TZ+ (similar to 0.85 correlation), EC versus TDS and EC versus TH analysis. Groundwater in the three climatic zones is `hard' to `very hard' in terms of Ca-Mg hardness. Polluted wells are identified (> 40 % of pollution) and eliminated for the characterization. Piper's diagram with mean concentrations indicates the evolution of CaNaHCO3 (semi-arid) from CaHCO3 (humid zone) along the climatic gradient. Carbonates dominate other anions and strong acids exceeded weak acids in the region. Mule Hole SEW, an experimental watershed in sub-humid zone, is characterized initially using hydrogeochemistry and is observed to be a replica of entire sub-humid zone (with 25 wells). Extension of the studies for the entire basin (120 wells) showed a chemical gradient along the climatic gradient with sub-humid zone bridging semi-arid and humid zones. Ca/Na molar ratio varies by more than 100 times from semi-arid to humid zones. Semi-arid zone is more silicaceous than sub-humid while humid zone is more carbonaceous (Ca/Cl similar to 14). Along the climatic gradient, groundwater is undersaturated (humid), saturated (sub-humid) and slightly supersaturated (semi-arid) with calcite and dolomite. Concentration-depth profiles are in support of the geological stratification i.e., not approximate to 18 m of saprolite and similar to 25 m of fracture rock with parent gneiss beneath. All the wells are classified into four groups based on groundwater fluctuations and further into `deep' and `shallow' based on the depth to groundwater. Higher the fluctuations, larger is its impact on groundwater chemistry. Actual seasonal patterns are identified using `recharge-discharge' concept based on rainfall intensity instead of traditional monsoon-non-monsoon concept. Non-pumped wells have low Na/Cl and Ca/Cl ratios in recharge period than in discharge period (Dilution). Few other wells, which are subjected to pumping, still exhibit dilution chemistry though water level fluctuations are high due to annual recharge. Other wells which do not receive sufficient rainfall and are constantly pumped showed high concentrations in recharge period rather than in discharge period (Anti-dilution). In summary, recharge-discharge concept demarcates the pumped wells from natural deep wells thus, characterizing the basin.

A general geomorphological recession flow model for river basins

Recession flows in a basin are controlled by the temporal evolution of its active drainage network (ADN). The geomorphological recession flow model (GRFM) assumes that both the rate of flow generation per unit ADN length (q) and the speed at which ADN heads move downstream (c) remain constant during a recession event. Thereby, it connects the power law exponent of -dQ/dt versus Q (discharge at the outlet at time t) curve, , with the structure of the drainage network, a fixed entity. In this study, we first reformulate the GRFM for Horton-Strahler networks and show that the geomorphic ((g)) is equal to D/(D-1), where D is the fractal dimension of the drainage network. We then propose a more general recession flow model by expressing both q and c as functions of Horton-Strahler stream order. We show that it is possible to have = (g) for a recession event even when q and c do not remain constant. The modified GRFM suggests that is controlled by the spatial distribution of subsurface storage within the basin. By analyzing streamflow data from 39 U.S. Geological Survey basins, we show that is having a power law relationship with recession curve peak, which indicates that the spatial distribution of subsurface storage varies across recession events. Key Points The GRFM is reformulated for Horton-Strahler networks. The GRFM is modified by allowing its parameters to vary along streams. Sub-surface storage distribution controls recession flow characteristics.

Surface freshwater storage and variability in the Amazon basin from multi-satellite observations, 1993-2007

The amount of water stored and moving through the surface water bodies of large river basins (river, floodplains, wetlands) plays a major role in the global water and biochemical cycles and is a critical parameter for water resources management. However, the spatiotemporal variations of these freshwater reservoirs are still widely unknown at the global scale. Here, we propose a hypsographic curve approach to estimate surface freshwater storage variations over the Amazon basin combining surface water extent from a multi-satellite-technique with topographic data from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) from Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Monthly surface water storage variations for 1993-2007 are presented, showing a strong seasonal and interannual variability, and are evaluated against in situ river discharge and precipitation. The basin-scale mean annual amplitude of similar to 1200 km(3) is in the range of previous estimates and contributes to about half of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage variations. For the first time, we map the surface water volume anomaly during the extreme droughts of 1997 (October-November) and 2005 (September-October) and found that during these dry events the water stored in the river and floodplains of the Amazon basin was, respectively, similar to 230 (similar to 40%) and 210 (similar to 50%) km(3) below the 1993-2007 average. This new 15 year data set of surface water volume represents an unprecedented source of information for future hydrological or climate modeling of the Amazon. It is also a first step toward the development of such database at the global scale.

What mainly controls recession flows in river basins?

The ubiquity of the power law relationship between dQ/dt and Q for recession periods (-dQ/dt kQ(alpha); Q being discharge at the basin outlet at time t) clearly hints at the existence of a dominant recession flow process that is common to all real basins. It is commonly assumed that a basin, during recession events, functions as a single phreatic aquifer resting on a impermeable horizontal bed or the Dupuit-Boussinesq (DB) aquifer, and with time different aquifer geometric conditions arise that give different values of alpha and k. The recently proposed alternative model, geomorphological recession flow model, however, suggests that recession flows are controlled primarily by the dynamics of the active drainage network (ADN). In this study we use data for several basins and compare the above two contrasting recession flow models in order to understand which of the above two factors dominates during recession periods in steep basins. Particularly, we do the comparison by selecting three key recession flow properties: (1) power law exponent alpha, (2) dynamic dQ/dt-Q relationship (characterized by k) and (3) recession timescale (time period for which a recession event lasts). Our observations suggest that neither drainage from phreatic aquifers nor evapotranspiration significantly controls recession flows. Results show that the value of a and recession timescale are not modeled well by DB aquifer model. However, the above mentioned three recession curve properties can be captured satisfactorily by considering the dynamics of the ADN as described by geomorphological recession flow model, possibly indicating that the ADN represents not just phreatic aquifers but the organization of various sub-surface storage systems within the basin. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.