Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Did southern Western Ghats of peninsular India serve as refugia for its endemic biota during the Cretaceous volcanism?

The Western Ghats (WG) of south India, a global biodiversity hotspot, has experienced complex geological history being part of Gondwana landmass and encountered extensive volcanic activity at the end of Cretaceous epoch. It also has a climatically and topographically heterogeneous landscape. Thus, the WG offer a unique setting to explore the influence of ecological and geological processes on the current diversity and distribution of its biota. To this end, three explicit biogeographical scenarios were hypothesized to evaluate the distribution and diversification of wet evergreen species of the WG - (1) southern WG was a refuge for the wet evergreen species during the Cretaceous volcanism, (2) phylogenetic breaks in the species phylogeny would correspond to geographic breaks (i.e., the Palghat gap) in the WG, and (3) species from each of the biogeographic subdivisions within the WG would form distinct clades. These hypotheses were tested on the centipede genus Digitipes from the WG which is known to be an ancient, endemic, and monophyletic group. The Digitipes molecular phylogeny was subjected to divergence date estimation using Bayesian approach, and ancestral areas were reconstructed using parsimony approach for each node in the phylogeny. Ancestral-area reconstruction suggested 13 independent dispersal events to explain the current distribution of the Digitipes species in the WG. Among these 13 dispersals, two dispersal events were at higher level in the Digitipes phylogeny and were from the southern WG to the central and northern WG independently in the Early Paleocene, after the Cretaceous Volcanism. The remaining 11 dispersal events explained the species' range expansions of which nine dispersals were from the southern WG to other biogeographic subdivisions in the Eocene-Miocene in the post-volcanic periods where species-level diversifications occurred. Taken together, these results suggest that southern WG might have served as a refuge for Digitipes species during Cretaceous volcanism.

Forgotten records of Chrysopelea taprobanica Smith, 1943 (Squamata: Colubridae) from India

The colubrid snake Chrysopelea taprobanica Smith, 1943 was described from a holotype from Kanthali (= Kantalai) and paratypes from Kurunegala, both localities in Sri Lanka (formerly Ceylon) (Smith 1943). Since its description, literature pertaining to Sri Lankan snake fauna considered this taxon to be endemic to the island (Taylor 1950, Deraniyagala 1955, de Silva 1980, de Silva 1990, Somaweera 2004, Somaweera 2006, de Silva 2009, Pyron et al. 2013). In addition, earlier efforts on the Indian peninsula (e.g. Das 1994, 1997, Das 2003, Whitaker & Captain 2004, Aengals et al. 2012) and global data compilations (e.g. Wallach et al. 2014, Uetz & Hošek 2015) did not identify any record from mainland India until Guptha et al. (2015) recorded a specimen (voucher BLT 076 housed at Bio-Lab of Seshachalam Hills, Tirupathi, India) in the dry deciduous forest of Chamala, Seshachalam Biosphere Reserve in Andhra Pradesh, India in November 2013. Guptha et al. (2015) further mentioned an individual previously photographed in 2000 at Rishi Valley, Andhra Pradesh, but with no voucher specimen collected. Guptha’s record, assumed to be the first confirmed record of C. taprobanica in India, is noteworthy as it results in a large range extension, from northern Sri Lanka to eastern India with an Euclidean distance of over 400 km, as well as a change of status, i.e., species not endemic to Sri Lanka. However, at least three little-known previous records of this species from India evaded most literature and were overlooked by the researchers including ourselves.

Sero-Prevalence of Rodent Pathogens in India

Health monitoring is an integral part of laboratory animal quality standards. However, current or past prevalence data as well as regulatory requirements dictate the frequency, type and the expanse of health monitoring. In an effort to understand the prevalence of rodent pathogens in India, a preliminary study was carried out by sero-epidemiology. Sera samples obtained from 26 public and private animal facilities were analyzed for the presence of antibodies against minute virus of mice (MVM), ectromelia virus (ECTV), lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV), mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), Sendai virus (SeV), and Mycoplasma pulmonis in mice, and SeV, rat parvo virus (RPV), Kilham's rat virus (KRV) and sialodacryoadenitis virus (SDAV) in rats, by sandwich ELISA. It was observed that MHV was the most prevalent agent followed by Mycoplasma pulmonis and MVM in mice, and SDAV followed by RPV were prevalent in rats. On the other hand, none of the samples were positive for ECTV in mice, or SeV or KRV in rats. Multiple infections were common in both mice and rats. The incidence of MHV and Mycoplasma pulmonis was higher in facilities maintained by public organizations than in vivaria of private organizations, although the difference was not statistically different. On the other hand the prevalence of rodent pathogens was significantly higher in the northern part of India than in the South. These studies form the groundwork for detailed sero-prevalence studies which should further lay the foundations for country-specific guidelines for health monitoring of laboratory animals.

Systematic status of Fejervarya ((Amphibia, Anura, Dicroglossidae) from South and SE Asia with the description of a new species from the Western Ghats of Peninsular India

We carried out a large-scale phylogenetic analysis of fejervaryan (dicroglossid frogs with `Fejervaryan lines' on the ventral side of the body) frogs, distributed in South and SE Asia, using published and newly generated sequences of unidentified individuals from the northern Western Ghats. The results corroborate the presence of a larger fejervaryan clade with a sister relationship to a clade composed of Sphaerotheca. Two sister clades could be discerned within the lager fejervaryan clade. The unidentified individuals formed a monophyletic group and showed a strong support for a sister relationship with Minervarya sahyadris. The species was found to be highly divergent (16S rRNA-4% and tyr-1%) from its sister lineage Minervarya sahyadris, and the clade composed of these two lineages were found to be deeply nested within the larger clade of Fejervarya. Based on this, the genus Minervarya Dubois, Ohler and Biju, 2001 is synonymized under the genus Fejervarya Bolkay, 1915. The unidentified lineage is recognized, based on phylogenetic position, genetic divergence and morphological divergence, as a distinct species and named here as Fejervarya gomantaki sp. nov. The presence of rictal glands was observed to be a synapomorphic character shared by the nested clade members, Fejervarya sahyadris and Fejervarya gomantaki sp. nov. Based on the presence of rictal gland and small size, Minervarya chilapata, a species from a lowland region in the Eastern Himalayas, is synonymized under Fejervarya and evidence for morphological separation from the new species, Fejervarya gomantaki sp. nov. is provided. For the fejervaryan frogs, currently three generic names (Frost, 2015) are available for the two phylogenetic subclades; the genus Fejervarya Bolkay, 1915 for the species of fejervaryan frogs having distribution in the South East Asia; the genus Zakerana Howlader, 2011 for the species of fejervaryan frogs having distribution in the South Asia and the genus Minervarya Dubois, Ohler and Biju, 2001 nested within the `Zakerana clade'. In the phylogenetic analysis Minervarya sahyadris, the new species described herein as Fejervarya gomantaki sp. nov. are nested within the `Zakerana clade', if the `Zakerana clade' for the fejervaryan frogs having distribution in the South Asia is provided a generic status the nomen `Minervarya' should be considered as per the principle of priority of the ICZN Code. Taking into consideration the overlapping distribution ranges of members of the sister clades within the larger fejervaryan clade and the absence of distinct morphological characteristics, we also synonymize the genus Zakerana Howlader, 2011, a name assigned to one of the sister clades with members predominantly distributed in South Asia, under the genus Fejervarya Bolkay, 1915. We discuss the need for additional sampling to identify additional taxa and determine the geographical ranges of the members of the sister clades within Fejervarya to resolve taxonomy within this group.

Neoarchean arc magmatism followed by high-temperature, high-pressure metamorphism in the Nilgiri Block, southern India

The Nilgiri Block, southern India is an exhumed lower crust formed through arc magmatic processes in the Neoarchean. The main lithologies in this terrane include charnockites, gneisses, volcanic tuff, metasediments, banded iron formation and mafic-ultramafic bodies. Mafic-ultramafic rocks are present towards the northern and central part of the Nilgiri Block. We examine the evolution of these mafic granulites/metagabbros by phase diagram modeling and U-Pb sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) dating. They consist of a garnet-clinopyroxene-plagioclase-hornblende-ilmenite +/- orthopyroxene +/- rutile assemblage. Garnet and clinopyroxene form major constituents with labradorite and orthopyroxene as the main mineral inclusions. Labradorite, identified using Raman analysis, shows typical peaks at 508 cm(-1), 479 cm(-1), 287 cm(-1) and 177 cm(-1). It is stable along with orthopyroxene towards the low-pressure high-temperature region of the granulite fades (M1 stage). Subsequently, orthopyroxene reacted with plagioclase to form the peak garnet + clinopyroxene + rutile assemblage (M2 stage). The final stage is represented by amphibolite facies-hornblende and plagioclase-rim around the garnet-clinopyroxene assemblage (M3 stage). Phase diagram modeling shows that these mafic granulites followed an anticlockwise P-T-t path during their evolution. The initial high-temperature metamorphism (M1 stage) was at 850-900 degrees C and similar to 9 kbar followed by high-pressure granulite fades metamorphism (M2 stage) at 850-900 degrees C and 14-15 kbar. U-Pb isotope studies of zircons using SHRIMP revealed late Neoarchean to early paleoproterozoic ages of crystallization and metamorphism respectively. The age data shows that these mafic granulites have undergone arc magmatism at ca. 25392 +/- 3 Ma and high-temperature, high-pressure metamorphism at ca. 2458.9 +/- 8.6 Ma. Thus our results suggests a late Neoarchean arc magmatism followed by early paleoproterozoic high-temperature, high-pressure granulite facies metamorphism due to the crustal thickening and suturing of the Nilgiri Block onto the Dharwar Craton. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and forests in India

Forests play a critical role in addressing climate change concerns in the broader context of global change and sustainable development. Forests are linked to climate change in three ways. i) Forests are a source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: ii) Forests offer mitigation opportunities to stabilise GHG concentrations: iii) Forests are impacted by climate change. This paper reviews studies related to climate change and forests in India: first, the studies estimating carbon inventory for the Indian land use change and forestry sector (LUCF), then the different models and mitigation potential estimates for the LUCF sector in India. Finally it reviews the studies on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in India, identifying the implications for net primary productivity and bio-diversity. The paper highlights data, modelling and research gaps relevant to the GHG inventory, mitigation potential and vulnerability and impact assessments for the forest sector in India.

Statistical analysis of the position of the monsoon trough

Using surface charts at 0330GMT, the movement df the monsoon trough during the months June to September 1990 al two fixed longitudes, namely 79 degrees E and 85 degrees E, is studied. The probability distribution of trough position shows that the median, mean and mode occur at progressively more northern latitudes, especially at 85 degrees E, with a pronounced mode that is close to the northern-most limit reached by the trough. A spectral analysis of the fluctuating latitudinal position of the trough is carried out using FFT and the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). Both methods show significant peaks around 7.5 and 2.6 days, and a less significant one around 40-50 days. The two peaks at the shorter period are more prominent at the eastern longitude. MEM shows an additional peak around 15 days. A study of the weather systems that occurred during the season shows them to have a duration around 3 days and an interval between systems of around 9 days, suggesting a possible correlation with the dominant short periods observed in the spectrum of trough position.

ELISA for the detection of venoms from four medically important snakes of India

A double antibody sandwich enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was developed to detect Echis carinatus venom in various organs (brain, heart, lungs, liver, spleen and kidneys) as well as tissue at the site of injection of mice, at various time intervals (1, 6, 12, 18, 24 h and 12 h intervals up to 72 h) after death. The assay could detect E. carinatus venom levels up to 2.5 ng/ml of tissue homogenate and the venom was detected up to 72 h after death. A highly sensitive and species-specific avidin-biotin microtitre ELISA was also developed to detect venoms of four medically important Indian snakes (Bungarus caeruleus, Naja naja, E. carinatus and Daboia russelli russelli) in autopsy specimens of human victims of snake bite. The assay could detect venom levels as low as 100 pg/ml of tissue homogenate. Venoms were detected in brain, heart, lungs, liver, spleen, kidneys, tissue at the bite area and postmortem blood. In all 12 human victim cadavers tested the culprit species were identified. As observed in mice, tissue at the site of bite area showed the highest concentration of venom and the brain showed the least. Moderate amounts of venoms were found in liver, spleen, kidneys, heart and lungs. Development of a simple, rapid and species-specific diagnostic kit based on this ELISA technique useful to clinicians is discussed.

Regolith mass balance inferred from combined mineralogical, geochemical and geophysical studies: Mule Hole gneissic watershed, South India

The aim of this study is to propose a method to assess the long-term chemical weathering mass balance for a regolith developed on a heterogeneous silicate substratum at the small experimental watershed scale by adopting a combined approach of geophysics, geochemistry and mineralogy. We initiated in 2003 a study of the steep climatic gradient and associated geomorphologic features of the edge of the rifted continental passive margin of the Karnataka Plateau, Peninsular India. In the transition sub-humid zone of this climatic gradient we have studied the pristine forested small watershed of Mule Hole (4.3 km(2)) mainly developed on gneissic substratum. Mineralogical, geochemical and geophysical investigations were carried out (i) in characteristic red soil profiles and (ii) in boreholes up to 60 m deep in order to take into account the effect of the weathering mantle roots. In addition, 12 Electrical Resistivity Tomography profiles (ERT), with an investigation depth of 30 m, were generated at the watershed scale to spatially characterize the information gathered in boreholes and soil profiles. The location of the ERT profiles is based on a previous electromagnetic survey, with an investigation depth of about 6 m. The soil cover thickness was inferred from the electromagnetic survey combined with a geological/pedological survey. Taking into account the parent rock heterogeneity, the degree of weathering of each of the regolith samples has been defined using both the mineralogical composition and the geochemical indices (Loss on Ignition, Weathering Index of Parker, Chemical Index of Alteration). Comparing these indices with electrical resistivity logs, it has been found that a value of 400 Ohm m delineates clearly the parent rocks and the weathered materials, Then the 12 inverted ERT profiles were constrained with this value after verifying the uncertainty due to the inversion procedure. Synthetic models based on the field data were used for this purpose. The estimated average regolith thickness at the watershed scale is 17.2 m, including 15.2 m of saprolite and 2 m of soil cover. Finally, using these estimations of the thicknesses, the long-term mass balance is calculated for the average gneiss-derived saprolite and red soil. In the saprolite, the open-system mass-transport function T indicates that all the major elements except Ca are depleted. The chlorite and biotite crystals, the chief sources for Mg (95%), Fe (84%), Mn (86%) and K (57%, biotite only), are the first to undergo weathering and the oligoclase crystals are relatively intact within the saprolite with a loss of only 18%. The Ca accumulation can be attributed to the precipitation of CaCO3 from the percolating solution due to the current and/or the paleoclimatic conditions. Overall, the most important losses occur for Si, Mg and Na with -286 x 10(6) mol/ha (62% of the total mass loss), -67 x 10(6) mol/ha (15% of the total mass loss) and -39 x 10(6) mol/ha (9% of the total mass loss), respectively. Al, Fe and K account for 7%, 4% and 3% of the total mass loss, respectively. In the red soil profiles, the open-system mass-transport functions point out that all major elements except Mn are depleted. Most of the oligoclase crystals have broken down with a loss of 90%. The most important losses occur for Si, Na and Mg with -55 x 10(6) mol/ha (47% of the total mass loss), -22 x 10(6) mol/ha (19% of the total mass loss) and -16 x 10(6) mol/ha (14% of the total mass loss), respectively. Ca, Al, K and Fe account for 8%, 6%, 4% and 2% of the total mass loss, respectively. Overall these findings confirm the immaturity of the saprolite at the watershed scale. The soil profiles are more evolved than saprolite but still contain primary minerals that can further undergo weathering and hence consume atmospheric CO2.

An Integrated Assessment Of The Suitability Of Domestic Solar Still As A Viable Safe Water Technology For India

Improving access to safe drinking water can result in multi-dimensional impacts on people's livelihood. This has been aptly reflected in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) as one of the major objectives. Despite the availability of diverse and complex set of technologies for water purification, pragmatic and cost-effective use of the same is impeding the use of available sources of water. Hence, in country like India simple low-energy technologies such as solar still are likely to succeed. Solar stills would suffice the basic minimum drinking water requirements of man. Solar stills use sunlight, to kill or inactivate many, if not all, of the pathogens found in water. This paper provides an integrated assessment of the suitability of domestic solar still as a viable safe water technology for India. Also an attempt has been made to critically assess the operational feasibility and costs incurred for using this technology in rural India.

Spatial distribution of aerosol black carbon over India during pre-monsoon season

Aerosol black carbon (BC) mass concentrations ([BC]), measured continuously during a multi-platform field experiment, Integrated Campaign for Aerosols gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB, March-May 2006), from a network of eight observatories spread over geographically distinct environments of India, (which included five mainland stations, one highland station, and two island stations (one each ill Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal)) are examined for their spatio-temporal characteristics. During the period of study, [BC] showed large variations across the country, with values ranging from 27 mu g m(3) over industrial/urban locations to as low as 0.065 mu g m(-3) over the Arabian Sea. For all mainland stations, [BC] remained high compared to highland as well as island stations. Among the island stations, Port Blair (PBR) had higher concentration of BC, compared to Minicoy (MCY), implying more absorbing nature of Bay of Bengal aerosols than Arabian Sea. The highland station Nainital (NTL), in the central Himalayas, showed low values of [BC], comparable or even lower than that of the island station PBR, indicating the prevalence of cleaner environment over there. An examination of the changes in the mean temporal features, as the season advances from winter (December-February) to pre-monsoon (March-May), revealed that: (a) Diurnal variations were pronounced over all the mainland stations, with all afternoon low and a nighttime high: (b) At the islands, the diurnal variations, though resembled those over the mainlands, were less pronounced; and (c) In contrast to this, highland station showed an opposite pattern with an afternoon high and a late night or early morning low. The diurnal variations at all stations are mainly caused by the dynamics of local Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL), At the entire mainland as well as island stations (except HYD and DEL), [BC] showed a decreasing trend from January to May, This is attributed to the increased convective mixing and to the resulting enhanced vertical dispersal of species in the ABL. In addition, large short-period modulations were observed at DEL and HYD, which appeared to be episodic, An examination of this in the light of the MODIS-derived fire count data over India along with the back-trajectory analysis revealed that advection of BC from extensive forest fires and biomass-burning regions upwind were largely responsible for this episodic enhancement in BC at HYD and DEL.

Non-linear regression model for spatial variation in precipitation chemistry for South India

Chemical composition of rainwater changes from sea to inland under the influence of several major factors - topographic location of area, its distance from sea, annual rainfall. A model is developed here to quantify the variation in precipitation chemistry under the influence of inland distance and rainfall amount. Various sites in India categorized as 'urban', 'suburban' and 'rural' have been considered for model development. pH, HCO3, NO3 and Mg do not change much from coast to inland while, SO4 and Ca change is subjected to local emissions. Cl and Na originate solely from sea salinity and are the chemistry parameters in the model. Non-linear multiple regressions performed for the various categories revealed that both rainfall amount and precipitation chemistry obeyed a power law reduction with distance from sea. Cl and Na decrease rapidly for the first 100 km distance from sea, then decrease marginally for the next 100 km, and later stabilize. Regression parameters estimated for different cases were found to be consistent (R-2 similar to 0.8). Variation in one of the parameters accounted for urbanization. Model was validated using data points from the southern peninsular region of the country. Estimates are found to be within 99.9% confidence interval. Finally, this relationship between the three parameters - rainfall amount, coastline distance, and concentration (in terms of Cl and Na) was validated with experiments conducted in a small experimental watershed in the south-west India. Chemistry estimated using the model was in good correlation with observed values with a relative error of similar to 5%. Monthly variation in the chemistry is predicted from a downscaling model and then compared with the observed data. Hence, the model developed for rain chemistry is useful in estimating the concentrations at different spatio-temporal scales and is especially applicable for south-west region of India. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Role of predictors in downscaling surface temperature to river basin in India for IPCC SRES scenarios using support vector machine

In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a support vector machine (SVM) for obtaining projections of monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures (T-max and T-min) to river-basin scale. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated through application to downscale the predictands for the catchment of the Malaprabha reservoir in India, which is considered to be a climatically sensitive region. The probable predictor variables are extracted from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1978-2000, and (2) the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT for the period 1978-2100. The predictor variables are classified into three groups, namely A, B and C. Large-scale atmospheric variables Such as air temperature, zonal and meridional wind velocities at 925 nib which are often used for downscaling temperature are considered as predictors in Group A. Surface flux variables such as latent heat (LH), sensible heat, shortwave radiation and longwave radiation fluxes, which control temperature of the Earth's surface are tried as plausible predictors in Group B. Group C comprises of all the predictor variables in both the Groups A and B. The scatter plots and cross-correlations are used for verifying the reliability of the simulation of the predictor variables by the CGCM3 and to Study the predictor-predictand relationships. The impact of trend in predictor variables on downscaled temperature was studied. The predictor, air temperature at 925 mb showed an increasing trend, while the rest of the predictors showed no trend. The performance of the SVM models that are developed, one for each combination of predictor group, predictand, calibration period and location-based stratification (land, land and ocean) of climate variables, was evaluated. In general, the models which use predictor variables pertaining to land surface improved the performance of SVM models for downscaling T-max and T-min