34 resultados para Law of Propagation of Uncertainty


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This paper presents a study on the uncertainty in material parameters of wave propagation responses in metallic beam structures. Special effort is made to quantify the effect of uncertainty in the wave propagation responses at high frequencies. Both the modulus of elasticity and the density are considered uncertain. The analysis is performed using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) under the spectral finite element method (SEM). The randomness in the material properties is characterized by three different distributions, the normal, Weibull and extreme value distributions. Their effect on wave propagation in beams is investigated. The numerical study shows that the CPU time taken for MCS under SEM is about 48 times less than for MCS under a conventional one-dimensional finite element environment for 50 kHz loading. The numerical results presented investigate effects of material uncertainties on high frequency modes. A study is performed on the usage of different beam theories and their uncertain responses due to dynamic impulse load. These studies show that even for a small coefficient of variation, significant changes in the above parameters are noticed. A number of interesting results are presented, showing the true effects of uncertainty response due to dynamic impulse load.

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The radiative impact of aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimating anthropogenic climate perturbations. Here we have used independent ground-based radiometer measurements made simultaneously with comprehensive measurements of aerosol microphysical and optical properties at a highly populated urban site, Bangalore (13.02 degrees N, 77.6 degrees E) in southern India during a dedicated campaign during winter of 2004 and summer and pre-monsoon season of 2005. We have also used longer term measurements carried out at this site to present general features of aerosols over this region. The aerosol radiative impact assessments were made from direct measurements of ground reaching irradiance as well as by incorporating measured aerosol properties into a radiative transfer model. Large discrepancies were observed between measured and modeled (using radiative transfer models, which employed measured aerosol properties) radiative impacts. It appears that the presence of elevated aerosol layers and (or) inappropriate description of aerosol state of mixing are (is) responsible for the discrepancies. On a monthly scale reduction of surface irradiance due to the presence of aerosols (estimated using radiative flux measurements) varies from 30 to 65 W m(-2). The lowest values in surface radiative impact were observed during June when there is large reduction in aerosol as a consequence of monsoon rainfall. Large increase in aerosol-induced surface radiative impact was observed from winter to summer. Our investigations re-iterate the inadequacy of aerosol measurements at the surface alone and importance of representing column properties (using vertical profiles) accurately in order to assess aerosol-induced climate changes accurately. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Grinding media wear appears to be non-linear with the time of grinding in a laboratory-scale ball mill. The kinetics of wear can be expressed as a power law of the type w=atb, where the numerical constant a represents wear of a particular microstructure at time t = 1 min and b is the wear exponent which is independent of the particle size prevailing inside a ball mill at any instant of time of grinding. The wear exponent appears to be an indicator of the cutting wear mechanism in dry grinding: a plot of the inverse of the normalised wear exponent (Image ) versusHs (where Hs is the worn surface hardness of the media) yields a curve similar to that of a wear resistance plot obtained in the case of two-body sliding abrasive wear. This method of evaluating the cutting wear resistance of media is demonstrated by employing 15 different microstructures of AISI-SAE 52100 steel balls in dry grinding of quartz in a laboratory-scale ball mill.

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A comprehensive scheme for analysing uniaxial deformation data, taking into account the finite stiffness of the testing machine is presented. Equations relevant to tension and stress relaxation tests carried out under cross head speed control, and to creep testing under constant load, are described. For the first two cases, the implications of not using gauge length extensometry but relying upon cross head displacement for inferring specimen extension, and the role of uncertainty in machine stiffness are also examined. The final section touches upon the extension of the present scheme to account for specimen anelasticity.

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The effect of uncertainty in composite material properties on the aeroelastic response, vibratory loads, and stability of a hingeless helicopter rotor is investigated. The uncertainty impact on rotating natural frequencies of the blade is studied with Monte Carlo simulations and first-order reliability methods. The stochastic aeroelastic analyses in hover and forward flight are carried out with Monte Carlo simulations. The flap, lag, and torsion responses show considerable scatter from their baseline values, and the uncertainty impact varies with the azimuth angle. Furthermore, the blade response shows finite probability of resonance-type conditions caused by modal frequencies approaching multiples of the rotor speed. The 4/rev vibratory forces show large deviations from their baseline values. The lag mode damping shows considerable scatter due to uncertain material properties with an almost 40% probability of instability in hover.

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We propose a new method for evaluating the adsorbed phase volume during physisorption of several gases on activated carbon specimens. We treat the adsorbed phase as another equilibrium phase which satisfies the Gibbs equation and hence assume that the law of rectilinear diameters is applicable. Since invariably the bulk gas phase densities are known along measured isotherms, the constants of the adsorbed phase volume can be regressed from the experimental data. We take the Dubinin-Astakhov isotherm as the model for verifying our hypothesis since it is one of the few equations that accounts for adsorbed phase volume changes. In addition, the pseudo-saturation pressure in the supercritical region is calculated by letting the index of the temperature term in Dubinin's equation to be temperature dependent. Based on over 50 combinations of activated carbons and adsorbates (nitrogen, oxygen, argon, carbon dioxide, hydrocarbons and halocarbon refrigerants) it is observed that the proposed changes fit experimental data quite well.

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A fuzzy logic system is developed for helicopter rotor system fault isolation. Inputs to the fuzzy logic system are measurement deviations of blade bending and torsion response and vibration from a "good" undamaged helicopter rotor. The rotor system measurements used are flap and lag bending tip deflections, elastic twist deflection at the tip, and three forces and three moments at the rotor hub. The fuzzy logic system uses rules developed from an aeroelastic model of the helicopter rotor with implanted faults to isolate the fault while accounting for uncertainty in the measurements. The faults modeled include moisture absorption, loss of trim mass, damaged lag damper, damaged pitch control system, misadjusted pitch link, and damaged flap. Tests with simulated data show that the fuzzy system isolates rotor system faults with an accuracy of about 90-100%. Furthermore, the fuzzy system is robust and gives excellent results, even when some measurements are not available. A rule-based expert system based on similar rules from the aeroelastic model performs much more poorly than the fuzzy system in the presence of high levels of uncertainty.

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This paper presents a study of the wave propagation responses in composite structures in an uncertain environment. Here, the main aim of the work is to quantify the effect of uncertainty in the wave propagation responses at high frequencies. The material properties are considered uncertain and the analysis is performed using Neumann expansion blended with Monte Carlo simulation under the environment of spectral finite element method. The material randomness is included in the conventional wave propagation analysis by different distributions (namely, the normal and the Weibul distribution) and their effect on wave propagation in a composite beam is analyzed. The numerical results presented investigates the effect of material uncertainties on different parameters, namely, wavenumber and group speed, which are relevant in the wave propagation analysis. The effect of the parameters, such as fiber orientation, lay-up sequence, number of layers, and the layer thickness on the uncertain responses due to dynamic impulse load, is thoroughly analyzed. Significant changes are observed in the high frequency responses with the variation in the above parameters, even for a small coefficient of variation. High frequency impact loads are applied and a number of interesting results are presented, which brings out the true effects of uncertainty in the high frequency responses. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4003945]

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The overall rate equation for a reaction sequence consisting of a pre-equilibrium and rate-determining steps should not be derived on the basis of the concentration of the intermediate product (X). This is apparently indicated by transition state theory (as the path followed to reach the highest energy transition state is irrelevant), but also proved by a straight-forward mathematical approach. The thesis is further supported by the equations of concurrent reactions as applied to the partitioning of X between the two competing routes (reversal of the pre-equilibrium and formation of product). The rate equation may only be derived rigorously on the basis of the law of mass action. It is proposed that the reactants acquire the overall activation energy prior to the pre-equilibrium, thus forming X in a high-energy state en route to the rate-determining transition state. (It is argued that conventional energy profile diagrams are misleading and need to be reinterpreted.) Also, these arguments invalidate the Michaelis-Menten equation of enzyme kinetics, and necessitate a fundamental revision of our present understanding of enzyme catalysis. (The observed ``saturation kinetics'' possibly arises from weak binding of a second molecule of substrate at the active site; analogous conclusions apply to reactions at surfaces).

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This article deals with the durability of 2D woven mat carbon/polyester, glass/isopolyester, and gel-coated glass/isopolyester reinforced composites under hygrothermic conditions with regard to marine applications. The test coupons were exposed to 60 degrees C and 70 degrees C at 95% RH for a maximum duration of 100 h. The samples were periodically withdrawn and weighed for moisture absorption and tested for the degradation in the mechanical properties such as ultimate tensile strength, flexural strength, interlaminar shear strength, and Young's modulus and flexural modulus. Carbon/isopolyester-based specimens showed greater stability with respect to degradation in the mechanical properties than the glass/isopolyester/gel coat- and glass/isopolyester-based specimens. Glass/isopolyester exhibited the maximum moisture absorption, whereas the minimum moisture absorption was found in glass/isopolyester/gel coat. Diffusion coefficient (D) was found to be the highest for glass/isopolyester and the lowest for glass/isopolyester/gel coat, based on the Fick's law of diffusion. Diffusion coefficient increases with the increase in temperature for all the specimens. Microstructure study of fractured specimens was carried out using scanning electron microscope to compare matrix/fiber debonding and matrix-degradation of fiber-reinforced polymer composites.

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Water is the most important medium through which climate change influences human life. Rising temperatures together with regional changes in precipitation patterns are some of the impacts of climate change that have implications on water availability, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture, water quality, water supply and water demands for irrigation and hydropower generation. In this article we provide an introduction to the emerging field of hydrologic impacts of climate change with a focus on water availability, water quality and irrigation demands. Climate change estimates on regional or local spatial scales are burdened with a considerable amount of uncertainty, stemming from various sources such as climate models, downscaling and hydrological models used in the impact assessments and uncertainty in the downscaling relationships. The present article summarizes the recent advances on uncertainty modeling and regional impacts of climate change for the Mahanadi and Tunga-Bhadra Rivers in India.

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Identifying the determinants of neuronal energy consumption and their relationship to information coding is critical to understanding neuronal function and evolution. Three of the main determinants are cell size, ion channel density, and stimulus statistics. Here we investigate their impact on neuronal energy consumption and information coding by comparing single-compartment spiking neuron models of different sizes with different densities of stochastic voltage-gated Na+ and K+ channels and different statistics of synaptic inputs. The largest compartments have the highest information rates but the lowest energy efficiency for a given voltage-gated ion channel density, and the highest signaling efficiency (bits spike(-1)) for a given firing rate. For a given cell size, our models revealed that the ion channel density that maximizes energy efficiency is lower than that maximizing information rate. Low rates of small synaptic inputs improve energy efficiency but the highest information rates occur with higher rates and larger inputs. These relationships produce a Law of Diminishing Returns that penalizes costly excess information coding capacity, promoting the reduction of cell size, channel density, and input stimuli to the minimum possible, suggesting that the trade-off between energy and information has influenced all aspects of neuronal anatomy and physiology.

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A series of ferrite samples with the compositional formula, Ni0.5Co0.5-xZnxFe2O4 (0 <= x <= 0.5), was prepared using the citrate based sol gel method for the better understanding of zinc doping on the structural and magnetic properties. The Rietveld-refined X-ray diffraction data revealed that the samples are having cubic structure with the Fd-3m space group. The lattice parameter increased linearly with increasing Zn content. The surface morphology and stoichiometric ratio of the compositional elements were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). EDS showed that the elemental ratios were stoichiometric. An examination of the magnetic properties revealed an increase in saturation magnetization with increasing Zn concentration up to x=0.3 and a decrease thereafter. These results could be explained using Neel's collinear two-sub-lattice model and three-sub-lattice non-collinear model suggested by Yafet and Kittel. The magnetic cubic anisotropy constant determined by the law of approach to saturation decreased with increasing Zn content. The underlying mechanism behind observed behavior was discussed qualitatively. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd and Techna Group S.r.l. All rights reserved.

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During the early stages of operation, high-tech startups need to overcome the liability of newness and manage high degree of uncertainty. Several high-tech startups fail due to inability to deal with skeptical customers, underdeveloped markets and limited resources in selling an offering that has no precedent. This paper leverages the principles of effectuation (a logic of entrepreneurial decision making under uncertainty) to explain the journey from creation to survival of high-tech startups in an emerging economy. Based on the 99tests.com case study, this paper suggests that early stage high-tech startups in emerging economies can increase their probability of survival by adopting the principles of effectuation.

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Tin oxide nanoparticles are synthesized using solution combustion technique and tin oxide - carbon composite thick films are fabricated with amorphous carbon as well as carbon nanotubes (CNTs). The x-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy and porosity measurements show that the as-synthesized nanoparticles are having rutile phase with average crystallite size similar to 7 nm and similar to 95 m(2)/g surface area. The difference between morphologies of the carbon doped and CNT doped SnO2 thick films, are characterized using scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. The adsorption-desorption kinetics and transient response curves are analyzed using Langmuir isotherm curve fittings and modeled using power law of semiconductor gas sensors. (C) 2015 Author(s).