Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Crystallographic texture and microstructure evolution during hot compression of Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy in the (alpha plus beta)-regime

Microstructure and texture are known to undergo drastic modifications due to trace hypoeutectic boron addition (similar to 0.1wt.%) for various titanium alloys e.g. Ti-6Al-4V. The deformation behaviour of such an alloy Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B is investigated in the (+) phase field and compared against that of the base alloy Ti-6Al-4V studied under selfsame conditions. The deformation microstructures for the two alloys display bending and kinking of lamellae in near and softening via globularization of lamella in near phase regimes, respectively. The transition temperature at which pure slip based deformation changes to softening is lower for the boron added alloy. The presence of TiB particles is largely held attributable for the early softening of Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy. The compression texture of both the alloys carry signature of pure phase defamation at lower temperature and phase transformation near the transus temperature. Texture is influenced by a complex interplay of the deformation and transformation processes in the intermediate temperature range. The contribution from phase transformation is prominent for Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy at comparatively lower temperature.

Achieving universal rural energy access in india: A low carbon pathway

India's energy challenges are three pronged: presence of majority energy poor lacking access to modern energy; need for expanding energy system to bridge this access gap as well as to meet the requirements of fast-growing economy; and the desire to partner with global economies in mitigating the threat of climate change. The presence of 364 million people without access to electricity and 726 million relying on biomass for cooking out of a total rural population of 809 million indicate the seriousness of challenge. In this paper, we discuss an innovative approach to address this challenge, which intends to take advantage of recent global developments and untapped capabilities possessed by India. Intention is to use climate change mitigation imperative as a stimulus and adopt a public-private-partnership-driven ‘business model' with innovative institutional, regulatory, financing, and delivery mechanisms. Some of the innovations are: creation of rural energy access authorities within the government system as leadership institutions; establishment of energy access funds to enable transitions from the regime of "investment/fuel subsidies" to "incentive-linked" delivery of energy services; integration of business principles to facilitate affordable and equitable energy sales and carbon trade; and treatment of entrepreneurs as implementation targets. This proposal targets 100% access to modern energy carriers by 2030 through a judicious mix of conventional and biomass energy systems with an investment of US$35 billion over 20 years. The estimated annual cost of universal energy access is about US$9 billion for a GHG mitigation potential of 213Tg CO2e at an abatement cost of US$41/tCO2e. It is a win-win situation for all stakeholders. Households benefit from modern energy carriers at affordable cost; entrepreneurs run profitable energy enterprises; carbon markets have access to CERs; the government has the satisfaction of securing energy access to rural people; and globally, there is a benefit of climate change mitigation.

Digestive ripening facilitated atomic diffusion at nanosize regime: Case of AuIn2 and Ag3In intermetallic nanoparticles

Monodisperse colloidal gold-indium (AuIn2) intermetallic nanoparticles have been synthesized from Au and In colloids using the digestive ripening process. Formation of the intermetallic proceeds via digestive ripening facilitated atomic diffusion of Au and In atoms from the Au and In nanoparticles followed simultaneously by their growth in the solution. Optimization of the reaction temperature was found to be crucial for the formation of AuIn2 intermetallic from gold and indium nanoparticles. Transmission electron microscopy revealed the presence of nearly monodisperse nanoparticles of Au and AuIn2 with particle size distribution of 3.7 +/- 1.0 nm and 5.0 +/- 1.6 nm, respectively. UV-visible spectral studies brought out the absence of SPR band in pure AuIn2 intermetallic nanoparticles. Optical study and electron microscopy, in combination with powder X-ray diffraction established phase pure AuIn2 intermetallic nanoparticles unambiguously. The potential of such an unprecedented approach has been further exploited in the synthesis of Ag3In intermetallic nanoparticles with the dimension of less than 10 nm. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistics of the inverse-cascade regime in two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

We present a detailed direct numerical simulation of statistically steady, homogeneous, isotropic, two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. Our study concentrates on the inverse cascade of the magnetic vector potential. We examine the dependence of the statistical properties of such turbulence on dissipation and friction coefficients. We extend earlier work significantly by calculating fluid and magnetic spectra, probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the velocity, magnetic, vorticity, current, stream-function, and magnetic-vector-potential fields, and their increments. We quantify the deviations of these PDFs from Gaussian ones by computing their flatnesses and hyperflatnesses. We also present PDFs of the Okubo-Weiss parameter, which distinguishes between vortical and extensional flow regions, and its magnetic analog. We show that the hyperflatnesses of PDFs of the increments of the stream function and the magnetic vector potential exhibit significant scale dependence and we examine the implication of this for the multiscaling of structure functions. We compare our results with those of earlier studies.