Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia.

Synconset Waves and Chains: Spiking Onsets in Synchronous Populations Predict and Are Predicted by Network Structure

Synfire waves are propagating spike packets in synfire chains, which are feedforward chains embedded in random networks. Although synfire waves have proved to be effective quantification for network activity with clear relations to network structure, their utilities are largely limited to feedforward networks with low background activity. To overcome these shortcomings, we describe a novel generalisation of synfire waves, and define `synconset wave' as a cascade of first spikes within a synchronisation event. Synconset waves would occur in `synconset chains', which are feedforward chains embedded in possibly heavily recurrent networks with heavy background activity. We probed the utility of synconset waves using simulation of single compartment neuron network models with biophysically realistic conductances, and demonstrated that the spread of synconset waves directly follows from the network connectivity matrix and is modulated by top-down inputs and the resultant oscillations. Such synconset profiles lend intuitive insights into network organisation in terms of connection probabilities between various network regions rather than an adjacency matrix. To test this intuition, we develop a Bayesian likelihood function that quantifies the probability that an observed synfire wave was caused by a given network. Further, we demonstrate it's utility in the inverse problem of identifying the network that caused a given synfire wave. This method was effective even in highly subsampled networks where only a small subset of neurons were accessible, thus showing it's utility in experimental estimation of connectomes in real neuronal-networks. Together, we propose synconset chains/waves as an effective framework for understanding the impact of network structure on function, and as a step towards developing physiology-driven network identification methods. Finally, as synconset chains extend the utilities of synfire chains to arbitrary networks, we suggest utilities of our framework to several aspects of network physiology including cell assemblies, population codes, and oscillatory synchrony.

Molecules support morphology: species status of South Indian populations of the widely distributed Hanuman langur

The taxonomy of the Hanuman langur (Semnopithecus spp.), a widely distributed Asian colobine monkey, has been in a flux for a long time due to much disagreement between various classification schemes. However, results from a recent field-based morphological study were consistent with Hill's (Ceylon J Sci 21:277-305, 1939) species level classification scheme. Here we tested the validity of S. hypoleucos and S. priam, the two South Indian species recognized by Hill. To this end, one mitochondrial and four nuclear markers were sequenced from over 72 non-invasive samples of Hanuman langurs and S. johnii collected from across India. The molecular data were subjected to various tree building methods. The nuclear data was also used in a Bayesian structure analysis and to determine the genealogical sorting index of each hypothesized species. Results from nuclear data suggest that the South Indian population of Hanuman langur consists of two units that correspond to the species recognized by Hill. However in the mitochondrial tree S. johnii and S. priam were polyphyletic probably due to retention of ancestral polymorphism and/or low levels of hybridization. Implications of these results on conservation of Hanuman langurs are also discussed.

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic analysis of Indian tasar silkmoth (Antheraea mylitta) populations

Indian tasar silkmoth, Antheraea mylitta is an economically important wild silkmoth species distributed across India. A number of morphologically and ethologically well-defined ecotypes are known for this species that differ in their primary food plant specificity. Most of these ecotypes do not interbreed in nature, but are able to produce offspring under captive conditions. Microsatellite markers were developed for A. mylitta, and out of these, ten well-behaved microsatellite loci were used to analyze the population structure of different ecoraces. A total of 154 individual moths belonging to eight different ecoraces, were screened at each locus. Hierarchical analysis of population structure using Analysis of MOlecular VAriance (AMOVA) revealed significant structuring (F-ST = 0.154) and considerable inbreeding (F-IS = 0.505). A significant isolation by distance was also observed. The number of possible population clusters was investigated using distance method, Bayesian algorithm and self organization maps (SOM). The first two methods revealed two distinct clusters, whereas the SOM showed the different ecoraces not to be clearly differentiated. These results suggest that although there is a large degree of phenotypic variation among the different ecoraces of A. mylitta, genetically they are not very different, and the phenotypic differences may largely be a result of their respective ecology.