Estimating national contributions of greenhouse gas emissions :The CSE-WRI controversy

Analysts have identified four related questions that need to be asked and answered before agreements to respond to global warming will be possible.1 Which countries bear responsibility for causing the problem? What quantities and mix of greenhouse gases should each country be allowed to emit? Which countries have the resources to do something about the problem? Where are the best opportunities for undertaking projects to respond to the problem? Failure to distinguish among these four questions, or willingness to accept superficial answers, promotes unnecessary controversy.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Status Survey of the Malabar Pied Hornbill in the Dandeli Region, Northern Western Ghats, India

The Malabar Pied Hornbill, Anthracoceros coronatus, is a near threatened species, endemic to the tropical deciduous forests of central and southern India and Sri Lanka. The Dandeli region in Karnataka (India) is believed to be the last stronghold of this species in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot. Being a rapidly developing area with a growing human population, the threats to this species and their habitat are mounting, especially due to a large number of hydroelectric projects and habitat fragmentation caused by paper and plywood industries. This study evaluated the change in population status of the Malabar Pied Hornbill over a 23 year period and defined priorities for the long term conservation and monitoring of hornbills in Dandeli. Encounter rates of hornbills were also analysed in relation to the density and species richness of trees and fruiting trees, basal area, canopy cover and distance from river. Hornbill encounters were not significantly different compared to the earlier study carried out by Reddy in 1988, but were significantly different across the five sites in the current study. Higher numbers of hornbills were encountered closer to the river, but these results were only marginally significant. The mean numbers of hornbills recorded at the two roost sites identified in Dandeli were 26 +/- 4.47 (n=16 counts) and 31.78 +/- 3.53 (n=14 counts) respectively. The study also helped build local awareness about the species, train local Forest Department staff in monitoring hornbills and develop a management plan for its conservation.

Potential and economics of forestry options for carbon sequestration in India

There is a need to understand the carbon (C) sequestration potential of the forestry option and its financial implications for each country.In India the C emissions from deforestation are estimated to be nearly offset by C sequestration in forests under succession and tree plantations. India has nearly succeeded in stabilizing the area under forests and has adequate forest conservation strategies. Biomass demands for softwood, hardwood and firewood are estimated to double or treble by the year 2020. A set of forestry options were developed to meet the projected biomass needs, and keeping in mind the features of land categories available, three scenarios were developed: potential; demand-driven; and programme-driven scenarios. Adoption of the demand-driven scenario, targeted at meeting the projected biomass needs, is estimated to sequester 78 Mt of C annually after accounting for all emissions resulting from clearfelling and end use of biomass. The demand-driven scenario is estimated to offset 50% of national C emission at 1990 level. The cost per t of C sequestered for forestry options is lower than the energy options considered. The annual investment required for implementing the demand-driven scenario is estimated to be US$ 2.1 billion for six years and is shown to be feasible. Among forestry options, the ranking based on investment cost per t of C sequestered from least cost to highest cost is; natural regeneration-agro-forestry-enhanced natural regeneration (< US$ 2.5/t C)-timber-community-softwood forestry (US$ 3.3 to 7.3 per t of C).

Potential herblayer production and grazing effects in anthropogenic savanna-grasslands in the moist tropical forests of the Western Ghats of India

The moist tropical forests of the Western Ghats of India are pockmarked with savanna-grasslands created and managed by local agricultural communities. A sample of such savanna-grasslands with differing growing conditions was studied in terms of peak above-ground biomass, monthly growth, and cumulative production under different clipping treatments. The herblayer was found to be dominated by perennial C4 grasses, with Eulalia trispicata, Arundinella metzii and Themeda triandra being common to all sites. Peak biomass ranged between 3.3-5.9 t/ha at sites most favourable for grass production. Across these sites, peak biomass was found to be inversely related to the number of rainy days during the growing season, suggesting that growth may be light-limited. This hypothesis is supported by the observation that growth is most rapid immediately after the easing of the monsoon. Single clips early in the growing season had no negative or a slightly positive effect on production, but mid-season single clips or continuous frequent clipping reduced production by as much as 40%. The results suggest that, while indiscriminate grazing may certainly be deleterious, it is possible to obtain sustained high yields from forest lands managed for grass production without totally excluding grazing.

A comparative analysis of regeneration in natural forests and joint forest management plantations in Uttara Kannada district, Western Ghats

Five villages undertaking joint forest management (JFM) were chosen in Uttara Kannada district, Karnataka for assessing regeneration in plantations and nearby natural forests of the village. Species number, stem density, diversity index, similarity in species composition in less disturbed and disturbed forests and plantations in the village were compared. Stem density was low in all the disturbed forests; however, the species number was low in disturbed forests of three villages and high in two villages. Plantations showed lower diversity values compared to the adjacent natural forests. Regeneration in all less disturbed forests was better compared to the disturbed counterparts. Villages were ranked based on number of landless families, per, capita forest available and number of cut stems. Assessment of village forests using ranks indicates that parameters such as per capita availability, cut stems in the forests may determine the success of JFM.

The Asian elephants Elephas maximus of Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam: status and conservation of a vanishing population

This study updates the status and conservation of the Endangered Asian elephant Elephas maximus in Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam. Line transect indirect surveys, block surveys for elephant signs, village surveys of elephant-human conflict incidents, guard-post surveys for records of sightings, and surveys of elephant food plants were undertaken during the dry and wet seasons of 2001. A minimum of 11 elephants and a maximum of 15-17 elephants was estimated for c. 500 km2 of the Park and its vicinity. The elephants are largely confined to the southern boundary of the Park and make extensive use of the adjoining La Nga State Forest Enterprises. During the dry season the elephants depend on at least 26 species of wild and cultivated plants, chiefly the fruits of cashew. Most of the villages surveyed reported some elephant-human conflict. Two adult male elephants seem to cover a large area to raid crops, whereas the family groups restrict themselves to a few villages; overall, the conflict is not serious. Since 2001 there have been no reports of any deaths or births of elephants in the Park. We make recommendations for habitat protection and management, increasing the viability of the small population, reducing elephant-human conflicts, and improving the chances of survival of the declining elephants of this Park. The Government has now approved an Action Plan for Urgent Conservation Areas in Vietnam that calls for the establishment of three elephant conservation areas in the country, including Cat Tien National Park.