Improved Algorithms for Reservoir Capacity Calculation Incorporating Storage-Dependent Losses and Reliability Norm

Two algorithms that improve upon the sequent-peak procedure for reservoir capacity calculation are presented. The first incorporates storage-dependent losses (like evaporation losses) exactly as the standard linear programming formulation does. The second extends the first so as to enable designing with less than maximum reliability even when allowable shortfall in any failure year is also specified. Together, the algorithms provide a more accurate, flexible and yet fast method of calculating the storage capacity requirement in preliminary screening and optimization models.

Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0)

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 decrease stomatal conductance of plants and thus suppress canopy transpiration. The climate response to this CO2-physiological forcing is investigated using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 coupled to Community Land Model version 3.0. In response to the physiological effect of doubling CO2, simulations show a decrease in canopy transpiration of 8%, a mean warming of 0.1K over the land surface, and negligible changes in the hydrological cycle. These climate responses are much smaller than what were found in previous modeling studies. This is largely a result of unrealistic partitioning of evapotranspiration in our model control simulation with a greatly underestimated contribution from canopy transpiration and overestimated contributions from canopy and soil evaporation. This study highlights the importance of a realistic simulation of the hydrological cycle, especially the individual components of evapotranspiration, in reducing the uncertainty in our estimation of climatic response to CO2-physiological forcing. Citation: Cao, L., G. Bala, K. Caldeira, R. Nemani, and G.Ban-Weiss (2009), Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0).

Retrogressed eclogite (20 kbar, 1020 °C) from the Neoproterozoic Palghat–Cauvery suture zone, southern India

The Palghat–Cauvery suture zone in southern India separates Archaean crustal blocks to the north and the Proterozoic Madurai block to the south. Here we present the first detailed study of a partially retrogressed eclogite (from within the Sittampundi anorthositic complex in the suture zone) that occurs as a 20-cm wide layer in a garnet gabbro layer in anorthosite. The eclogite largely consists of an assemblage of coexisting porphyroblasts of almandine–pyrope garnet and augitic clinopyroxene. However, a few garnets contain inclusions of omphacite. Rims and symplectites composed of Na–Ca amphibole and plagioclase form a retrograde assemblage. Petrographic analysis and calculated phase equilibria indicate that garnet–omphacite–rutile–melt was the peak metamorphic assemblage and that it formed at ca. 20 kbar and above 1000 °C. The eclogite was exhumed on a very tight hairpin-type, anticlockwise P–T path, which we relate to subduction and exhumation in the Palghat–Cauvery suture zone. The REE composition of the minerals suggests a basaltic oceanic crustal protolith metamorphosed in a subduction regime. Geological–structural relations combined with geophysical data from the Palghat–Cauvery suture zone suggest that the eclogite facies metamorphism was related to formation of the suture zone. Closure of the Mozambique Ocean led to development of the suture zone and to its western extension in the Betsimisaraka suture of Madagascar.

A Note on Southwood's Instability Criterion

It is shown that Southwood's instability criterion for the onset of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability at the magnetopause can be directly obtained from the marginal instability condition for the pure Alfven surface waves propagating along the interface between two incompressible media in the limit when the wave propagation direction is nearly perpendicular to the direction of the largest magnetic field. The phase velocity of the surface waves first excited at the onset of the instability depends on the angle between the interplanetary magnetic field and flow velocity in the solar wind in front of the bow shock.

Multiobjective Analysis of Irrigation Planning in River Basin Development

A river basin that is extensively developed in the downstream reaches and that has a high potential for development in the upper reaches is considered for irrigation planning. A four-reservoir system is modeled on a monthly basis by using a mathematical programing (LP) formulation to find optimum cropping patterns, subject to land, water, and downstream release constraints. The model is applied to a fiver basin in India. Two objectives, maximizing net economic benefits and maximizing irrigated cropped area, considered in the model are analyzed in the context of multiobjective planning, and the tradeoffs are discussed.

Multistation study of nighttime scintillations in low latitudes: Evidence of control by equatorial F region irregularities

VHF nighttime scintillations, recorded during a high solar activity period at a meridian chain of stations covering a magnetic latitude belt of 3°–21°N (420 km subionospheric points) are analyzed to investigate the influence of equatorial spread F irregularities on the occurrence of scintillation at latitudes away from the equator. Observations show that saturated amplitude scintillations start abruptly about one and a half hours after ground sunset and their onset is almost simultaneous at stations whose subionospheric points are within 12°N latitude of the magnetic equator, but is delayed at a station whose subionospheric point is at 21°N magnetic latitude by 15 min to 4 hours. In addition, the occurrence of postsunset scintillations at all the stations is found to be conditional on their prior occurrence at the equatorial station. If no postsunset scintillation activity is seen at the equatorial station, no scintillations are seen at other stations also. The occurrence of scintillations is explained as caused by rising plasma bubbles and associated irregularities over the magnetic equator and the subsequent mapping of these irregularities down the magnetic field lines to the F region of higher latitudes through some instantaneous mechanism; and hence an equatorial control is established on the generation of postsunset scintillation-producing irregularities in the entire low-latitude belt.

Variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in daily data from gauge and satellite

It has long been thought that tropical rainfall retrievals from satellites have large errors. Here we show, using a new daily 1 degree gridded rainfall data set based on about 1800 gauges from the India Meteorology Department (IMD), that modern satellite estimates are reasonably close to observed rainfall over the Indian monsoon region. Daily satellite rainfalls from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP 1DD) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) are available since 1998. The high summer monsoon (June-September) rain over the Western Ghats and Himalayan foothills is captured in TMPA data. Away from hilly regions, the seasonal mean and intraseasonal variability of rainfall (averaged over regions of a few hundred kilometers linear dimension) from both satellite products are about 15% of observations. Satellite data generally underestimate both the mean and variability of rain, but the phase of intraseasonal variations is accurate. On synoptic timescales, TMPA gives reasonable depiction of the pattern and intensity of torrential rain from individual monsoon low-pressure systems and depressions. A pronounced biennial oscillation of seasonal total central India rain is seen in all three data sets, with GPCP 1DD being closest to IMD observations. The new satellite data are a promising resource for the study of tropical rainfall variability.

Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

Second-order statistical structure of geomagnetic field reversals

From the autocorrelation function of geomagnetic polarity intervals, it is shown that the field reversal intervals are not independent but form a process akin to the Markov process, where the random input to the model is itself a moving average process. The input to the moving average model is, however, an independent Gaussian random sequence. All the parameters in this model of the geomagnetic field reversal have been estimated. In physical terms this model implies that the mechanism of reversal possesses a memory.

A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Contribution from unresolved discrete sources to the extragalactic gamma-ray background (EGRB)

The origin of the extragalactic gamma-ray background (EGRB) is still an open question, even nearly forty years after its discovery. The emission could originate either from truly diffuse processes or from unresolved point sources. Although the majority of the 271 point sources detected by EGRET (Energetic Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope) are unidentified, of the identified sources, blazars are the dominant candidates. Therefore, unresolved blazars may be considered the main contributor to the EGRB, and many studies have been carried out to understand their distribution, evolution and contribution to the EGRB. Considering that gamma-ray emission comes mostly from jets of blazars and that the jet emission decreases rapidly with increasing jet to line-of-sight angle, it is not surprising that EGRET was not able to detect many large inclination angle active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Though Fermi could only detect a few large inclination angle AGNs during the first three months of its survey, it is expected to detect many such sources in the near future. Since non-blazar AGNs are expected to have higher density as compared to blazars, these could also contribute significantly to the EGRB. In this paper, we discuss contributions from unresolved discrete sources including normal galaxies, starburst galaxies, blazars and off-axis AGNs to the EGRB.

Optical, radiative, and source characteristics of aerosols at Minicoy, a remote island in the southern Arabian Sea

Extensive measurements of aerosol radiative and microphysical properties were made at an island location, Minicoy (8.3 degrees N, 73.04 degrees E) in the southern Arabian Sea. A large variability in aerosol characteristics associated with changes in air mass and precipitation characteristics was observed. Six distinct transport pathways were identified on the basis of cluster analysis. The Indo-Gangetic Plain, along with the northern Arabian Sea and west Asia (NWA), was identified to be the region having the highest potential for aerosol mass loading at the island. This estimate is based on the concentration weighted trajectory as well as cluster analysis. Dust transport from the NWA region was found to make a substantial contribution to the supermicron mass fraction. The black carbon mass mixing ratios observed were the lowest compared to previous measurements over this region. Consequently, the atmospheric radiative forcing efficiency was low and was in the range 10-28 W m(-2).

Diurnal-scale signatures of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region from TRMM satellite observations

One of the most important modes of summer season precipitation variability over the Indian region, the diurnal cycle, is studied using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3-hourly, 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007). Most previous studies have provided an analysis of a single year or a few years of satellite-or station-based rainfall data. Our study aims to systematically analyze the statistical characteristics of the diurnal-scale signature of rainfall over the Indian and surrounding regions. Using harmonic analysis, we extract the signal corresponding to diurnal and subdiurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time period or the octet of rainfall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the ``peak octet,'' is estimated, with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430, and 1730 Indian standard time (IST), from the north central to south bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian Sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet owing to the occurrence of a ual maxima (early morng and early/late afternoon). The imalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e. g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e. g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land.

On the coalescence of twisted flux tubes

We study the problem of the coalescence of twisted flux tubes by assuming that the azimuthal field lines reconnect at a current sheet during the coalescence process and everywhere else the magnetic field is frozen in the fluid. We derive relations connecting the topology of the coalesced flux tube with the topologies of the initial flux tubes, and then obtain a structure equation for calculating the field configuration of the coalesced flux tube from the given topology. Some solutions for the two extreme cases of low-β plasma and high-β plasma are discussed. The coalesced flux tube has less twist than the initial flux tube. Magnetic helicity is found to be exactly conserved during the coalescence, but the assumptions in the model put a constraint on the energy dissipation so that we do not get a relaxation to the minimum-energy Taylor state in the low-β case. It is pointed out that the structure equation connecting the topology and the equilibrium configuration is quite general and can be of use in many two-dimensional flux tube problems.

Shift of peak in summer monsoon rainfall over Korea and its association with El Nino-Southern Oscillation

The annual cycle of rainfall over the Korean Peninsula is marked by two peaks: one during July and the other during August. Since the mid-1970s, the maximum rainfall over the Korean Peninsula has shifted from July to August. This shift in rainfall peak was caused by a significant increase of August rainfall after the mid-1970s. The basic reason for this shift has been traced to a change in teleconnection between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and August rainfall. The relationship between August rainfall over Korea and ENSO changed from 1954-1975 (PI) to 1976-2002 (PII). The variability of August rainfall was significantly associated with sea surface temperature (SST) variation over the eastern equatorial Pacific during PI, but this relationship is absent during the PII period. In El Nino years during PI, low-level westerly and southerly wind anomalies are dominant around the East China Sea, which relates to strong August rainfall. In La Nina years during PI, easterly and northerly wind anomalies are dominant. During the PII period, however, westerly and southerly wind anomalies around the East China Sea were responsible for the high August rainfall over the East Asian region, even though La Nina SST conditions were in effect over the eastern Pacific.