Asymptotic Bounds on the Power-Delay Tradeoff for Fading Point-to-Point Links From Geometric Bounds on the Stationary Distribution of the Queue Length

The optimal power-delay tradeoff is studied for a time-slotted independently and identically distributed fading point-to-point link, with perfect channel state information at both transmitter and receiver, and with random packet arrivals to the transmitter queue. It is assumed that the transmitter can control the number of packets served by controlling the transmit power in the slot. The optimal tradeoff between average power and average delay is analyzed for stationary and monotone transmitter policies. For such policies, an asymptotic lower bound on the minimum average delay of the packets is obtained, when average transmitter power approaches the minimum average power required for transmitter queue stability. The asymptotic lower bound on the minimum average delay is obtained from geometric upper bounds on the stationary distribution of the queue length. This approach, which uses geometric upper bounds, also leads to an intuitive explanation of the asymptotic behavior of average delay. The asymptotic lower bounds, along with previously known asymptotic upper bounds, are used to identify three new cases where the order of the asymptotic behavior differs from that obtained from a previously considered approximate model, in which the transmit power is a strictly convex function of real valued service batch size for every fade state.

Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.