81 resultados para Failure Probability


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We derive a very general expression of the survival probability and the first passage time distribution for a particle executing Brownian motion in full phase space with an absorbing boundary condition at a point in the position space, which is valid irrespective of the statistical nature of the dynamics. The expression, together with the Jensen's inequality, naturally leads to a lower bound to the actual survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution. These are expressed in terms of the position-position, velocity-velocity, and position-velocity variances. Knowledge of these variances enables one to compute a lower bound to the survival probability and consequently the first passage distribution function. As examples, we compute these for a Gaussian Markovian process and, in the case of non-Markovian process, with an exponentially decaying friction kernel and also with a power law friction kernel. Our analysis shows that the survival probability decays exponentially at the long time irrespective of the nature of the dynamics with an exponent equal to the transition state rate constant.

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This article analyzes the effect of devising a new failure envelope by the combination of the most commonly used failure criteria for the composite laminates, on the design of composite structures. The failure criteria considered for the study are maximum stress and Tsai-Wu criteria. In addition to these popular phenomenological-based failure criteria, a micromechanics-based failure criterion called failure mechanism-based failure criterion is also considered. The failure envelopes obtained by these failure criteria are superimposed over one another and a new failure envelope is constructed based on the lowest absolute values of the strengths predicted by these failure criteria. Thus, the new failure envelope so obtained is named as most conservative failure envelope. A minimum weight design of composite laminates is performed using genetic algorithms. In addition to this, the effect of stacking sequence on the minimum weight of the laminate is also studied. Results are compared for the different failure envelopes and the conservative design is evaluated, with respect to the designs obtained by using only one failure criteria. The design approach is recommended for structures where composites are the key load-carrying members such as helicopter rotor blades.

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The room temperature (RT) tensile behaviour of a free-standing high activity Pt-aluminide bond coat has been evaluated by microtensile testing technique. The coating had a typical three-layer microstructure. The stress-strain plot for the free-standing coating was linear, indicating the coating to be brittle at RT. Different fracture features were observed across the coating layers, namely quasi-cleavage in the outer layer and inner interdiffusion zone, and cleavage in the intermediate layer. By employing interrupted tensile test and observing the cross-sectional microstructure of the tested specimens, it was determined that failure of the microtensile samples occurred by the initiation of a single crack in the intermediate layer of the coating and its subsequent inside-out propagation. Such a mechanism of failure has been explained in terms of the fracture features observed across the sample thickness. This mechanism of failure is consistent with fracture toughness values of the individual coating layers. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The paper focuses on the reliability-based design optimization of gravity wall bridge abutments when subjected to active condition during earthquakes. An analytical study considering the effect of uncertainties in the seismic analysis of bridge abutments is presented. Planar failure surface has been considered in conjunction with the pseudostatic limit equilibrium method for the calculation of the seismic active earth pressure. Analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of bridge abutments when subjected to earthquake loads. Reliability analysis is used to estimate the probability of failure in three modes of failure viz. sliding failure of the wall on its base, overturning failure about its toe (or eccentricity failure of the resultant force) and bearing failure of foundation soil below the base of wall. The properties of backfill and foundation soil below the base of abutment are treated as random variables. In addition, the uncertainties associated with characteristics of earthquake ground motions such as horizontal seismic acceleration and shear wave velocity propagating through backfill soil are considered. The optimum proportions of the abutment needed to maintain the stability are obtained against three modes of failure by targeting various component and system reliability indices. Studies have also been made to study the influence of various parameters on the seismic stability.

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Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite specimens with different thickness, geometry, and stacking sequences were subjected to fatigue spectrum loading in stages. Another set of specimens was subjected to static compression load. On-line acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring was carried out during these tests. Two artificial neural networks, Kohonen-self organizing feature map (KSOM), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) have been developed for AE signal analysis. AE signals from specimens were clustered using the unsupervised learning KSOM. These clusters were correlated to the failure modes using available a priori information such as AE signal amplitude distributions, time of occurrence of signals, ultrasonic imaging, design of the laminates (stacking sequences, orientation of fibers), and AE parametric plots. Thereafter, AE signals generated from the rest of the specimens were classified by supervised learning MLP. The network developed is made suitable for on-line monitoring of AE signals in the presence of noise, which can be used for detection and identification of failure modes and their growth. The results indicate that the characteristics of AE signals from different failure modes in CFRP remain largely unaffected by the type of load, fiber orientation, and stacking sequences, they being representatives of the type of failure phenomena. The type of loading can have effect only on the extent of damage allowed before the specimens fail and hence on the number of AE signals during the test. The artificial neural networks (ANN) developed and the methods and procedures adopted show significant success in AE signal characterization under noisy environment (detection and identification of failure modes and their growth).

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Objectives: Glutathionyl haemoglobin (GS-Hb) belonging to the class of glutathionylated proteins has been investigated as a possible marker of oxidative stress in different chronic diseases. The purpose of this study was to examine whether glutathionyl haemoglobin can serve as an oxidative stress marker in non-diabetic chronic renal failure patients on different renal replacement therapies (RRT) through its quantitation, and characterization of the specific binding site of glutathione in haemoglobin molecule by mass spectrometric analysis. Design and methods: The study group consisted of non-diabetic chronic renal failure patients on renal replacement therapy (RRT): hemodialysis (HD), continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) and renal allograft transplant (Txp) patients. Haemoglobin samples of these subjects were analyzed by liquid chromatography electrospray ionization mass spectrometry for GS-Hb quantitation. Characterization of GS-Hb was done by tandem mass spectrometry. Levels of erythrocyte glutathione (GSH) and lipid peroxidation (as thiobarbituric acid reacting substances) were measured spectrophotometrically, while glycated baernoglobin (HbA1c) was measured by HPLC. Results: GS-Hb levels were markedly elevated in the dialysis group and marginally in the transplant group as compared to the controls. GS-Hb levels correlated positively with lipid peroxidation and negatively with the erythrocyte glutathione levels in RRT groups indicating enhanced oxidative stress. De novo sequencing of the chymotryptic fragment of GS-Hb established that glutathione is attached to Cys-93 of the beta globin chain. Mass spectrometric quantitation of total glycated haemoglobin showed good agreement with HbA1c estimation by conventional HPLC method. Conclusions: Glutathionyl haemoglobin can serve as a clinical marker of oxidative stress in chronic debilitating therapies like RRT. Mass spectrometry provides a reliable analytical tool for quantitation and residue level characterization of different post-translational modifications of haemoglobin. (c) 2007 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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We consider the problem of detecting statistically significant sequential patterns in multineuronal spike trains. These patterns are characterized by ordered sequences of spikes from different neurons with specific delays between spikes. We have previously proposed a data-mining scheme to efficiently discover such patterns, which occur often enough in the data. Here we propose a method to determine the statistical significance of such repeating patterns. The novelty of our approach is that we use a compound null hypothesis that not only includes models of independent neurons but also models where neurons have weak dependencies. The strength of interaction among the neurons is represented in terms of certain pair-wise conditional probabilities. We specify our null hypothesis by putting an upper bound on all such conditional probabilities. We construct a probabilistic model that captures the counting process and use this to derive a test of significance for rejecting such a compound null hypothesis. The structure of our null hypothesis also allows us to rank-order different significant patterns. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach using spike trains generated with a simulator.

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A methodology for reliability based optimum design of reinforced soil structures subjected to horizontal and vertical sinusoidal excitation based on pseudo-dynamic approach is presented. The tensile strength of reinforcement required to maintain the stability is computed using logarithmic spiral failure mechanism. The backfill soil properties, geometric and strength properties of reinforcement are treated as random variables. Effects of parameters like soil friction angle, horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations, shear and primary wave velocities, amplification factors for seismic acceleration on the component and system probability of failures in relation to tension and pullout capacities of reinforcement have been discussed. In order to evaluate the validity of the present formulation, static and seismic reinforcement force coefficients computed by the present method are compared with those given by other authors. The importance of the shear wave velocity in the estimation of the reliability of the structure is highlighted. The Ditlevsen's bounds of system probability of failure are also computed by taking into account the correlations between three failure modes, which is evaluated using the direction cosines of the tangent planes at the most probable points of failure. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The probability that a random process crosses an arbitrary level for the first time is expressed as a Gram—Charlier series, the leading term of which is the Poisson approximation. The coefficients of this series are related to the moments of the number of level crossings. The results are applicable to both stationary and non-stationary processes. Some numerical results are presented for the response process of a linear single-degree-of-freedom oscillator under Gaussian white noise excitation.

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In this paper, an analytical study considering the effect of uncertainties in the seismic analysis of geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) walls is presented. Using limit equilibrium method and assuming sliding wedge failure mechanism, analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of GRS walls when subjected to earthquake loads. Target reliability based approach is used to estimate the probability of failure in three modes of failure, viz., sliding, bearing, and eccentricity failure. The properties of reinforced backfill, retained backfill, foundation soil, and geosynthetic reinforcement are treated as random variables. In addition, the uncertainties associated with horizontal seismic acceleration and surcharge load acting on the wall are considered. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain the stability against three modes of failure by targeting various component and system reliability indices is obtained. Studies have also been made to study the influence of various parameters on the seismic stability in three failure modes. The results are compared with those given by first-order second moment method and Monte Carlo simulation methods. In the illustrative example, external stability of the two walls, Gould and Valencia walls, subjected to Northridge earthquake is reexamined.

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In this paper, an analytical study considering the effect of uncertainties in the seismic analysis of geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) walls is presented. Using limit equilibrium method and assuming sliding wedge failure mechanism, analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of GRS walls when subjected to earthquake loads. Target reliability based approach is used to estimate the probability of failure in three modes of failure, viz., sliding, bearing, and eccentricity failure. The properties of reinforced backfill, retained backfill, foundation soil, and geosynthetic reinforcement are treated as random variables. In addition, the uncertainties associated with horizontal seismic acceleration and surcharge load acting on the wall are considered. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain the stability against three modes of failure by targeting various component and system reliability indices is obtained. Studies have also been made to study the influence of various parameters on the seismic stability in three failure modes. The results are compared with those given by first-order second moment method and Monte Carlo simulation methods. In the illustrative example, external stability of the two walls, Gould and Valencia walls, subjected to Northridge earthquake is reexamined.

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Our concern here is to rationalize experimental observations of failure modes brought about by indentation of hard thin ceramic films deposited on metallic substrates. By undertaking this exercise, we would like to evolve an analytical framework that can be used for designs of coatings. In Part I of the paper we develop an algorithm and test it for a model system. Using this analytical framework we address the issue of failure of columnar TiN films in Part II [J. Mater. Res. 21, 783 (2006)] of the paper. In this part, we used a previously derived Hankel transform procedure to derive stress and strain in a birefringent polymer film glued to a strong substrate and subjected to spherical indentation. We measure surface radial strains using strain gauges and bulk film stresses using photo elastic technique (stress freezing). For a boundary condition based on Hertzian traction with no film interface constraint and assuming the substrate constraint to be a function of the imposed strain, the theory describes the stress distributions well. The variation in peak stresses also demonstrates the usefulness of depositing even a soft film to protect an underlying substrate.

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We report numerical and analytic results for the spatial survival probability for fluctuating one-dimensional interfaces with Edwards-Wilkinson or Kardar-Parisi-Zhang dynamics in the steady state. Our numerical results are obtained from analysis of steady-state profiles generated by integrating a spatially discretized form of the Edwards-Wilkinson equation to long times. We show that the survival probability exhibits scaling behavior in its dependence on the system size and the "sampling interval" used in the measurement for both "steady-state" and "finite" initial conditions. Analytic results for the scaling functions are obtained from a path-integral treatment of a formulation of the problem in terms of one-dimensional Brownian motion. A "deterministic approximation" is used to obtain closed-form expressions for survival probabilities from the formally exact analytic treatment. The resulting approximate analytic results provide a fairly good description of the numerical data.