Risk minimization in water quality control problems of a river system

Methodologies are presented for minimization of risk in a river water quality management problem. A risk minimization model is developed to minimize the risk of low water quality along a river in the face of conflict among various stake holders. The model consists of three parts: a water quality simulation model, a risk evaluation model with uncertainty analysis and an optimization model. Sensitivity analysis, First Order Reliability Analysis (FORA) and Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the fuzzy risk of low water quality. Fuzzy multiobjective programming is used to formulate the multiobjective model. Probabilistic Global Search Laussane (PGSL), a global search algorithm developed recently, is used for solving the resulting non-linear optimization problem. The algorithm is based on the assumption that better sets of points are more likely to be found in the neighborhood of good sets of points, therefore intensifying the search in the regions that contain good solutions. Another model is developed for risk minimization, which deals with only the moments of the generated probability density functions of the water quality indicators. Suitable skewness values of water quality indicators, which lead to low fuzzy risk are identified. Results of the models are compared with the results of a deterministic fuzzy waste load allocation model (FWLAM), when methodologies are applied to the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river system in southern India, with a steady state BOD-DO model. The fractional removal levels resulting from the risk minimization model are slightly higher, but result in a significant reduction in risk of low water quality. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of physical processes on the chlorophyll distribution in the Bay of Bengal

Satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (chl a) maps show three regions with high chl a in the Bay of Bengal. First among these is close to the coast, particularly off river mouths, with high values coinciding with the season of peak discharge; second is in the southwestern bay during the northeast monsoon, which is forced by local Ekman pumping; and the third is to the east of Sri Lanka in response to the summer monsoon winds. Chlorophyll-rich water from the mouths of rivers flows either along the coast or in an offshore direction, up to several hundred kilometers, depending on the prevailing ocean current pattern. The Irrawady River plume flows toward offshore and then turns northwestward during October–December, but it flows along the coast into the Andaman Sea for the rest of the year. From the Ganga-Brahmaputra river mouth, chl a–rich water flows directly southward into the open bay during spring but along the Indian coast during summer and winter. Along the Indian coast, the flow of chl a–rich water is determined by the East India Coastal Current (EICC). Whenever the EICC meanders off the Indian coast, it leads to an offshore outbreak of chl a–rich water from the coastal region into open ocean. The EICC as well as open ocean circulation in the bay is made up of several eddies, and these eddies show relatively higher chl a. Eddies near the coast, however, can often have higher chl a because of advection from the coastal region rather than generation within the eddy itself. The bay experiences several cyclones in a year, most of them occurring during October–November. These cyclones cause a drop in the sea surface temperature, a dip in the sea level, and a local increase in chl a. The impact of a cyclone is weaker in the northern part of the bay because of stronger stratification compared to the southern parts.

Recovery of tropical rainforest avifauna in relation to vegetation succession following shifting cultivation in Mizoram, north-east India

1. Recovery of rainforest bird community structure and composition, in relation to forest succession after slash-and-burn shifting cultivation or jhum was studied in Mizoram, north-east India. Replicate fallow sites abandoned after shifting cultivation 1, 5, 10, 25 and approximate to 100 years ago, were compared with primary evergreen and semi-evergreen forest using transect and quadrat sampling. 2. Vegetation variables such as woody plant species richness, tree density and vertical stratification increased with fallow age in a rapid. nun-linear, asymptotic manner. Principal components analysis of vegetation variables summarized 92.8% of the variation into two axes: PC1 reflecting forest development and woody plant succession (variables such as tree density, woody plant species richness), and PC2 depicting bamboo density, which increased from 1 to 25 years and declined thereafter. 3. Bird species richness, abundance and diversity, increased rapidly and asymptotically during succession paralleling vegetation recovery as shown by positive correlations with fallow age and PC1 scores of sites. Bamboo density reflected by PC2 had a negative effect on bird species richness and abundance. 4. The bird community similarity (Morisita index) of sites with primary forest also increased asymptotically with fallow age indicating sequential species turnover during succession. Bird community similarity of sites with primary forest (or between sites) was positively correlated with both physiognomic and floristic similarities with primary forest (or between sites). 5. The number of bird species in guilds associated with forest development and woody plants (canopy insectivores, frugivores: bark feeders) was correlated with PCI scores of the sites. Species in other guilds (e. g. granivores, understorey insectivores) appeared to dominate during early and mid-succession. 6. The non-linear relationships imply that fallow periods less than a threshold of 25 years for birds, and about 50-75 years for woody plants, are likely to cause substantial community alteration. 7. As 5-10-year rotation periods or jhum cycles prevail in many parts of north-east India. there is a need to protect and conserve tracts of late-successional and primary forest.

Optimal crop planning and conjunctive use of water resources in a coastal river basin

Due to increasing trend of intensive rice cultivation in a coastal river basin, crop planning and groundwater management are imperative for the sustainable agriculture. For effective management, two models have been developed viz. groundwater balance model and optimum cropping and groundwater management model to determine optimum cropping pattern and groundwater allocation from private and government tubewells according to different soil types (saline and non-saline), type of agriculture (rainfed and irrigated) and seasons (monsoon and winter). A groundwater balance model has been developed considering mass balance approach. The components of the groundwater balance considered are recharge from rainfall, irrigated rice and non-rice fields, base flow from rivers and seepage flow from surface drains. In the second phase, a linear programming optimization model is developed for optimal cropping and groundwater management for maximizing the economic returns. The models developed were applied to a portion of coastal river basin in Orissa State, India and optimal cropping pattern for various scenarios of river flow and groundwater availability was obtained.

Influence of land use changes in river basins on diversity and distribution of amphibians

Land-use changes influence local biodiversity directly, and also cumulatively, contribute to regional and global changes in natural systems and quality of life. Consequent to these, direct impacts on the natural resources that support the health and integrity of living beings are evident in recent times. The Western Ghats being one of the global biodiversity hotspots, is reeling under a tremendous pressure from human induced changes in terms of developmental projects like hydel or thermal power plants, big dams, mining activities, unplanned agricultural practices,monoculture plantations, illegal timber logging, etc. This has led to the once contiguous forest habitats to be fragmented in patches, which in turn has led to the shrinkage of original habitat for the wildlife, change in the hydrological regime of the catchment, decreased inflow in streams,human-animal conflicts, etc. Under such circumstances, a proper management practice is called for requiring suitable biological indicators to show the impact of these changes, set priority regions and in developing models for conservation planning. Amphibians are regarded as one of the best biological indicators due to their sensitivity to even the slightest changes in the environment and hence they could be used as surrogates in conservation and management practices. They are the predominating vertebrates with a high degree of endemism (78%) in Western Ghats. The present study is an attempt to bring in the impacts of various land-uses on anuran distribution in three river basins. Sampling was carried out for amphibians during all seasons of 2003-2006 in basins of Sharavathi, Aghanashini and Bedthi. There are as many as 46 species in the region, one of which is new to science and nearly 59% of them are endemic to the Western Ghats. They belong to nine families, Dicroglossidae being represented by 14 species,followed by Rhacophoridae (9 species) and Ranidae (5 species). Species richness is high in Sharavathi river basin, with 36 species, followed by Bedthi 33 and Aghanashini 27. The impact of land-use changes, was investigated in the upper catchment of Sharavathi river basin. Species diversity indices, relative abundance values, percentage endemics gave clear indication of differences in each sub-catchment. Karl Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) was calculated between species richness, endemics, environmental descriptors, land-use classes and fragmentation metrics. Principal component analysis was performed to depict the influence of these variables. Results show that sub-catchments with lesser percentage of forest, low canopy cover, higher amount of agricultural area, low rainfall have low species richness, less endemic species and abundant non-endemic species, whereas endemism, species richness and abundance of endemic species are more in the sub-catchments with high tree density, endemic trees, canopy cover, rainfall and lower amount of agriculture fields. This analysis aided in prioritising regions in the Sharavathi river basin for further conservation measures.

Climate change vulnerability profiles for North East India

Climate change vulnerability profiles are developed at the district level for agriculture, water and forest sectors for the North East region of India for the current and projected future climates. An index-based approach was used where a set of indicators that represent key sectors of vulnerability (agriculture, forest, water) is selected using the statistical technique principal component analysis. The impacts of climate change on key sectors as represented by the changes in the indicators were derived from impact assessment models. These impacted indicators were utilized for the calculation of the future vulnerability to climate change. Results indicate that majority of the districts in North East India are subject to climate induced vulnerability currently and in the near future. This is a first of its kind study that exhibits ranking of districts of North East India on the basis of the vulnerability index values. The objective of such ranking is to assist in: (i) identifying and prioritizing the most vulnerable sectors and districts; (ii) identifying adaptation interventions, and (iii) mainstreaming adaptation in development programmes.

Landslide susceptibility mapping in the downstream region of Sharavathi river basin, Central Western Ghats

Landslides are hazards encountered during monsoon in undulating terrains of Western Ghats causing geomorphic make over of earth surface resulting in significant damages to life and property. An attempt is made in this paper to identify landslides susceptibility regions in the Sharavathi river basin downstream using frequency ratio method based on the field investigations during July- November 2007. In this regard, base layers of spatial data such as topography, land cover, geology and soil were considered. This is supplemented with the field investigations of landslides. Factors that influence landslide were extracted from the spatial database. The probabilistic model -frequency ratio is computed based on these factors. Landslide susceptibility indices were computed and grouped into five classes. Validation of LHS, showed an accuracy of 89% as 25 of the 28 regions tallied with the field condition of highly vulnerable landslide regions. The landslide susceptible map generated for the downstream would be useful for the district officials to implement appropriate mitigation measures to reduce hazards.

Bioenergy Status of Sharavathi River Basin, Western Ghats, India

Most of the developing countries including India depend heavily on bioenergy and it accounts for about 15% of the global energy usage. Its role in meeting a region’s requirement has increased the interest of assessing the status of biomass availability in a region. The present work deals with the bioenergy status in the Linganamakki reservoir catchment of the Sharavathi river basin, Western Ghats,India, by assessing the energy supply and sector wise energy consumption. The study reveals that majority of the households (92.17%) depend on fuelwood for their domestic energy needs with the per capita fuelwood consumption of 1.2 tonnes/year, which is higher than the national average (0.7 tonnes/year). This higher dependence on fuelwood has contributed to the degradation of forests,resulting in scarcity of bioresources necessitating exploration of viable energy alternatives to meet the growing energy demand.

Community-based Natural Resource Management: Issues and Cases from South Asia

Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) is the joint management of natural resources by a community based on a community strategy, through a participatory mechanism involving all legitimate stakeholders. The approach is community-based in that the communities managing the resources have the legal rights, the local institutions and the economic incentives to take substantial responsibility for sustained use of these resources. This implies that the community plays an active role in the management of natural resources, not because it asserts sole ownership over them, but because it can claim participation in their management and benefits for practical and technical reasons1–4. This approach emerged as the dominant conservation concept in the late 1970s and early 1980s, of the disillusionment with the developmental state. Governments across South and South East Asia, Africa and Latin America have adopted and implemented CBNRM in various ways, viz. through sectoral programmes such as forestry, irrigation or wildlife management, multisectoral programmes such as watershed development and efforts towards political devolution. In India, the principle of decentralization through ‘gram swaraj’ was introduced by Mahatma Gandhi. The 73rd and 74th constitution amendments in 1992 gave impetus to the decentralized planning at panchayat levels through the creation of a statutory three-level local self-government structure5,6. The strength of this book is that it includes chapters by CBNRM advocates based on six seemingly innovative initiatives being implemented by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in ecologically vulnerable regions of South Asia: two in the Himalayas (watershed development programme in Lingmutechhu, Bhuthan and Thalisain tehsil, Paudi Grahwal District, Uttarakhand), three in semi-arid parts of western India (watershed development in Hivre Bazar, Maharashtra and Nathugadh village, Gujarat and water-harvesting structures in Gopalapura, Rajasthan) and one in the flood-plains of the Brahmaputra–Jamuna (Char land, Galibanda and Jamalpur districts, Bangladesh). Watersheds in semi-arid regions fall in the low-rainfall region (500–700 mm) and suffer the vagaries of drought 2–3 years in every five-year cycle. In all these locations, the major occupation is agriculture, most of which is rainfed or dry. The other two cases (in Uttarakhand) fall in the Himalayan region (temperate/sub-temperate climate), which has witnessed extensive deforestation in the last century and is now considered as one of the most vulnerable locations in South Asia. Terraced agriculture is being practised in these locations for a long time. The last case (Gono Chetona) falls in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna charlands which are the most ecologically vulnerable regions in the sub-continent with constantly changing landscape. Agriculture and livestock rearing are the main occupations, and there is substantial seasonal emigration for wage labour by the adult males. River erosion and floods force the people to adopt a semi-migratory lifestyle. The book attempts to analyse the potential as well as limitations of NGOdriven CBNRM endeavours across agroclimatic regions of South Asia with emphasis on four intrinsically linked normative concerns, namely sustainability, livelihood enhancement, equity and demographic decentralization in chapters 2–7. Comparative analysis of these case studies done in chapter 8, highlights the issues that require further research while portraying the strengths and limits of NGO-driven CBNRM. In Hivre Bazar, the post-watershed intervention scenario is such that farmers often grow three crops in a year – kharif bajra, rabi jowar and summer vegetable crops. Productivity has increased in the dry lands due to improvement in soil moisture levels. The revival of johads in Gopalpura has led to the proliferation of wheat and increased productivity. In Lingmuteychhu, productivity gains have also arisen, but more due to the introduction of both local and high-yielding, new varieties as opposed to increased water availability. In the case of Gono Chetona, improvements have come due to diversification of agriculture; for example, the promotion of vegetable gardens. CBNRM interventions in most cases have also led to new avenues of employment and income generation. The synthesis shows that CBNRM efforts have made significant contributions to livelihood enhancement and only limited gains in terms of collective action for sustainable and equitable access to benefits and continuing resource use, and in terms of democratic decentralization, contrary to the objectives of the programme. Livelihood benefits include improvements in availability of livelihood support resources (fuelwood, fodder, drinking water), increased productivity (including diversification of cropping pattern) in agriculture and allied activities, and new sources of livelihood. However, NGO-driven CBNRM has not met its goal of providing ‘alternative’ forms of ‘development’ due to impediments of state policy, short-sighted vision of implementers and confrontation with the socio-ecological reality of the region, which almost always are that of fragmented communities (or communities in flux) with unequal dependence and access to land and other natural resources along with great gender imbalances. Appalling, however, is the general absence of recognition of the importance of and the will to explore practical ways to bring about equitable resource transfer or benefit-sharing and the consequent innovations in this respect that are evident in the pioneering community initiatives such as pani panchayat, etc. Pertaining to the gains on the ecological sustainability front, Hivre Bazar and Thalisain initiatives through active participation of villagers have made significant regeneration of the water table within the village, and mechanisms such as ban on number of bore wells, the regulation of cropping pattern, restrictions on felling of trees and free grazing to ensure that in the future, the groundwater is neither over-exploited nor its recharge capability impaired. Nevertheless, the longterm sustainability of the interventions in the case of Ghoga and Gopalpura initiatives as the focus has been mostly on regeneration of resources, and less on regulating the use of regenerated resources. Further, in Lingmuteychhu and Gono Chetona, the interventions are mainly household-based and the focus has been less explicit on ecological components. The studies demonstrate the livelihood benefits to all of the interventions and significant variation in achievements with reference to sustainability, equity and democratic decentralization depending on the level and extent of community participation apart from the vision of implementers, strategy (or nature of intervention shaped by the question of community formation), the centrality of community formation and also the State policy. Case studies show that the influence of State policy is multi-faceted and often contradictory in nature. This necessitates NGOs to engage with the State in a much more purposeful way than in an ‘autonomous space’. Thus the role of NGOs in CBNRM is complementary, wherein they provide innovative experiments that the State can learn. This helps in achieving the goals of CBNRM through democratic decentralization. The book addresses the vital issues related to natural resource management and interests of the community. Key topics discussed throughout the book are still at the centre of the current debate. This compilation consists of well-written chapters based on rigorous synthesis of CBNRM case studies, which will serve as good references for students, researchers and practitioners in the years to come.

Plant Diversity in the Sharavathi River Basin in Relation to Human Disturbance

Changes in vegetation are taking place due to anthropogenic activities since the colonization of the evergreen forest zone of Western Ghats. The forests of the Western Ghats were contiguous and uniformly rich in endemism within each climatic and physiographic regime. The region continues to be one of the biodiversity hot spots of the world. However unplanned developmental activities are altering the balance of the ecosystem. This study focuses on the floristic structure, composition and diversity of forests with varying degree of human disturbances. Based on the investigations, various strategies for conservation and sustainable utilization of forest resources were proposed.