Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis, Design, Modeling, and Implementation of an Active Clamp HF Link Converter

This paper deals with the system oriented analysis, design, modeling, and implementation of active clamp HF link three phase converter. The main advantage of the topology is reduced size, weight, and cost of the isolation transformer. However, violation of basic power conversion rules due to presence of the leakage inductance in the HF transformer causes over voltage stresses across the cycloconverter devices. It makes use of the snubber circuit necessary in such topologies. The conventional RCD snubbers are dissipative in nature and hence inefficient. The efficiency of the system is greatly improved by using regenerative snubber or active clamp circuit. It consists of an active switching device with an anti-parallel diode and one capacitor to absorb the energy stored in the leakage inductance of the isolation transformer and to regenerate the same without affecting circuit performance. The turn on instant and duration of the active device are selected such that it requires simple commutation requirements. The time domain expressions for circuit dynamics, design criteria of the snubber capacitor with two conflicting constrains (over voltage stress across the devices and the resonating current duration), the simulation results based on generalized circuit model and the experimental results based on laboratory prototype are presented.

Numerical modeling of heat and mass transfer in laser surface alloying: Non-equilibrium solidification effects

A transient macroscopic model is developed for studying heat and mass transfer in a single-pass laser surface alloying process, with particular emphasis on non-equilibrium solidification considerations. The solution for species concentration distribution requires suitable treatment of non-equilibrium mass transfer conditions. In this context, microscopic features pertaining to non-equilibrium effects on account of solutal undercooling are incorporated through the formulation of a modified partition-coefficient. The effective partition-coefficient is numerically modeled by Means of a number of macroscopically observable parameters related to the solidifying domain. The numerical model is so developed that the modifications on account of non-equilibrium solidification considerations can be conveniently implemented in existing numerical codes based on equilibrium solidification considerations.

Three-dimensional computational modeling of momentum, heat, and mass transfer in a laser surface alloying process

A three- dimensional, transient model is developed for studying heat transfer, fluid flow, and mass transfer for the case of a single- pass laser surface alloying process. The coupled momentum, energy, and species conservation equations are solved using a finite volume procedure. Phase change processes are modeled using a fixed-grid enthalpy-porosity technique, which is capable of predicting the continuously evolving solid- liquid interface. The three- dimensional model is able to predict the species concentration distribution inside the molten pool during alloying, as well as in the entire cross section of the solidified alloy. The model is simulated for different values of various significant processing parameters such as laser power, scanning speed, and powder feedrate in order to assess their influences on geometry and dynamics of the pool, cooling rates, as well as species concentration distribution inside the substrate. Effects of incorporating property variations in the numerical model are also discussed.

Modeling of active fiber composite for delamination sensing

In order to demonstrate the feasibility of Active Fiber Composites (AFC) as sensors for detecting damage, a pretwisted strip made of AFC with symmetric free-edge delamination is considered in this paper. The strain developed on the top/bottom of the strip is measured to detect and assess delamination. Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM) is used in the development of a non-classical non-linear cross sectional model of the strip. The original three dimensional (3D) problem is simplified by the decomposition into two simpler problems: a two-dimensional (2D) problem, which provides in a compact form the cross-sectional properties using VAM, and a non-linear one-dimensional (1D) problem along the length of the beam. This procedure gives the non-linear stiffnesses, which are very sensitive to damage, at any given cross-section of the strip. The developed model is used to study a special case of cantilevered laminated strip with antisymmetric layup, loaded only by an axial force at the tip. The charge generated in the AFC lamina is derived in closed form in terms of the 1D strain measures. It is observed that delamination length and location have a definite influence on the charge developed in the AFC lamina. Also, sensor voltage output distribution along the length of the beam is obtained using evenly distributed electrode strip. These data could in turn be used to detect the presence of damage.

Measurement and modeling of Alloy-Spinel-Corundum equilibrium in the Ni-Mn-Al-0 system at 1873 K

The oxygen content of liquid Ni-Mn alloy equilibrated with spinel solid solution, (Ni,Mn)O. (1 +x)A12O3, and α-Al2O3 has been measured by suction sampling and inert gas fusion analysis. The corresponding oxygen potential of the three-phase system has been determined with a solid state cell incorporating (Y2O3)ThO2 as the solid electrolyte and Cr + Cr2O3 as the reference electrode. The equilibrium composition of the spinel phase formed at the interface of the alloy and alumina crucible was obtained using EPMA. The experimental data are compared with a thermodynamic model based on the free energies of formation of end-member spinels, free energy of solution of oxygen in liquid nickel, interaction parameters, and the activities in liquid Ni-Mn alloy and spinel solid solution. Mixing properties of the spinel solid solution are derived from a cation distribution model. The computational results agree with the experimental data on oxygen concentration, potential, and composition of the spinel phase.

Modeling of Ascending/Descending Velocity of Metal Droplet Emulsified in Pb-Salt System

Metal-slag emulsion is an important process to enhance the reaction rate between the two phases; thus, it improves the heat and mass transfer of the process significantly. Various experimental studies have been carried out, and some system specific relations have been proposed by various investigators. A unified, theoretical study is lacking to model this complex phenomenon. Therefore, two simple models based on fundamental laws for metal droplet velocity (both ascending and descending) and bubble velocity, as well as its position at any instant of time, have been proposed. Analytical solutions have been obtained for the developed equations. Analytical solutions have been verified for the droplet velocity, traveling time, and size distribution in slag phase by performing high-temperature experiments in a Pb-salt system and comparing the obtained data with theory. The proposed model has also been verified with published experimental data for various liquid systems with a wide range of physical properties. A good agreement has been found between the analytical solution and the experimental and published data in all cases.

Threshold voltage modeling under size quantization for ultra-thin silicon double-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor

We report on the threshold voltage modeling of ultra-thin (1 nm-5 nm) silicon body double-gate (DG) MOSFETs using self-consistent Poisson-Schrodinger solver (SCHRED). We define the threshold voltage (V th) of symmetric DG MOSFETs as the gate voltage at which the center potential (Φ c) saturates to Φ c (s a t), and analyze the effects of oxide thickness (t ox) and substrate doping (N A) variations on V th. The validity of this definition is demonstrated by comparing the results with the charge transition (from weak to strong inversion) based model using SCHRED simulations. In addition, it is also shown that the proposed V t h definition, electrically corresponds to a condition where the inversion layer capacitance (C i n v) is equal to the oxide capacitance (C o x) across a wide-range of substrate doping densities. A capacitance based analytical model based on the criteria C i n v C o x is proposed to compute Φ c (s a t), while accounting for band-gap widening. This is validated through comparisons with the Poisson-Schrodinger solution. Further, we show that at the threshold voltage condition, the electron distribution (n(x)) along the depth (x) of the silicon film makes a transition from a strong single peak at the center of the silicon film to the onset of a symmetric double-peak away from the center of the silicon film. © 2012 American Institute of Physics.

Vaporization and collision modeling of liquid fuel sprays in a co-axial fuel and air pre-mixer

Droplet collision occurs frequently in regions where the droplet number density is high. Even for Lean Premixed and Pre-vaporized (LPP) liquid sprays, the collision effects can be very high on the droplet size distributions, which will in turn affect the droplet vaporization process. Hence, in conjunction with vaporization modeling, collision modeling for such spray systems is also essential. The standard O'Rourke's collision model, usually implemented in CFD codes, tends to generate unphysical numerical artifact when simulations are performed on Cartesian grid and the results are not grid independent. Thus, a new collision modeling approach based on no-time-counter method (NTC) proposed by Schmidt and Rutland is implemented to replace O'Rourke's collision algorithm to solve a spray injection problem in a cylindrical coflow premixer. The so called ``four-leaf clover'' numerical artifacts are eliminated by the new collision algorithm and results from a diesel spray show very good grid independence. Next, the dispersion and vaporization processes for liquid fuel sprays are simulated in a coflow premixer. Two liquid fuels under investigation are jet-A and Rapeseed Methyl Esters (RME). Results show very good grid independence in terms of SMD distribution, droplet number distribution and fuel vapor mass flow rate. A baseline test is first established with a spray cone angle of 90 degrees and injection velocity of 3 m/s and jet-A achieves much better vaporization performance than RME due to its higher vapor pressure. To improve the vaporization performance for both fuels, a series of simulations have been done at several different combinations of spray cone angle and injection velocity. At relatively low spray cone angle and injection velocity, the collision effect on the average droplet size and the vaporization performance are very high due to relatively high coalescence rate induced by droplet collisions. Thus, at higher spray cone angle and injection velocity, the results expectedly show improvement in fuel vaporization performance since smaller droplet has a higher vaporization rate. The vaporization performance and the level of homogeneity of fuel-air mixture can be significantly improved when the dispersion level is high, which can be achieved by increasing the spray cone angle and injection velocity. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mixture model approach for formant tracking and the robustness of student's-t distribution

We address the problem of robust formant tracking in continuous speech in the presence of additive noise. We propose a new approach based on mixture modeling of the formant contours. Our approach consists of two main steps: (i) Computation of a pyknogram based on multiband amplitude-modulation/frequency-modulation (AM/FM) decomposition of the input speech; and (ii) Statistical modeling of the pyknogram using mixture models. We experiment with both Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and Student's-t mixture model (tMM) and show that the latter is robust with respect to handling outliers in the pyknogram data, parameter selection, accuracy, and smoothness of the estimated formant contours. Experimental results on simulated data as well as noisy speech data show that the proposed tMM-based approach is also robust to additive noise. We present performance comparisons with a recently developed adaptive filterbank technique proposed in the literature and the classical Burg's spectral estimator technique, which show that the proposed technique is more robust to noise.

A Model for the Temperature Distribution in Resin Impregnated Paper Bushings

Resin impregnated paper (RIP) is a relatively new insulation system recommended for the use in transformer bushings. In the recent past, RIP has acquired prominence as insulation in bushings, over conventional oil impregnated paper (OIP), in view of its overwhelming advantages the more important among them being low dielectric loss and possibility for positioning the bushing at any desired angle over the transformer. In addition, the fact that such systems do not pose problems of fire hazard is counted as a very important consideration. The disadvantage of RIP compared to OIP, however, is its much higher cost and involved manufacturing process. The temperature rise in RIP bushings under normal operating conditions is seen to be a difficult parameter to control in view of the limited options for effective cooling. It is therefore essential to take serious note of this aspect, to arrest rapid deterioration of bushing. The degradation of dry-type insulation such as RIP is often due to thermal stress. The long time performance thereof, depends strongly, on the maximum operating temperature. With this in view, the Authors have developed a theoretical model and computational method to study the temperature distribution in the body of insulation. The Authors consider that the basis for the model as being the temperature and electric stress aided AC conductivity. The ensuing heat balance (continuity) equations in 2-D cylindrical geometry are treated as a Dirichelet-Neumann boundary value problem.

Automatic speech segmentation using probabilistic latent component modeling

Latent variable methods, such as PLCA (Probabilistic Latent Component Analysis) have been successfully used for analysis of non-negative signal representations. In this paper, we formulate PLCS (Probabilistic Latent Component Segmentation), which models each time frame of a spectrogram as a spectral distribution. Given the signal spectrogram, the segmentation boundaries are estimated using a maximum-likelihood approach. For an efficient solution, the algorithm imposes a hard constraint that each segment is modelled by a single latent component. The hard constraint facilitates the solution of ML boundary estimation using dynamic programming. The PLCS framework does not impose a parametric assumption unlike earlier ML segmentation techniques. PLCS can be naturally extended to model coarticulation between successive phones. Experiments on the TIMIT corpus show that the proposed technique is promising compared to most state of the art speech segmentation algorithms.

MODELING AND SIMULATION OF HYDRODYNAMIC INTERACTION OF DNA IN A MICRO-FLUIDIC CHANNEL

The motion of DNA (in the bulk solution) and the non-Newtonian effective fluid behavior are considered separately and self-consistently with the fluid motion satisfying the no-slip boundary condition on the surface of the confining geometry in the presence of channel pressure gradients. A different approach has been developed to model DNA in the micro-channel. In this study the DNA is assumed as an elastic chain with its characteristic Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio and density. The force which results from the fluid dynamic pressure, viscous forces and electromotive forces is applied to the elastic chain in a coupled manner. The velocity fields in the micro-channel are influenced by the transport properties. Simulations are carried out for the DNAs attached to the micro-fluidic wall. Numerical solutions based on a coupled multiphysics finite element scheme are presented. The modeling scheme is derived based on mass conservation including biomolecular mass, momentum balance including stress due to Coulomb force field and DNA-fluid interaction, and charge transport associated to DNA and other ionic complexes in the fluid. Variation in the velocity field for the non-Newtonian flow and the deformation of the DNA strand which results from the fluid-structure interaction are first studied considering a single DNA strand. Motion of the effective center of mass is analyzed considering various straight and coil geometries. Effects of DNA statistical parameters (geometry and spatial distribution of DNAs along the channel) on the effective flow behavior are analyzed. In particular, the dynamics of different DNA physical properties such as radius of gyration, end-to-end length etc. which are obtained from various different models (Kratky-Porod, Gaussian bead-spring etc.) are correlated to the nature of interaction and physical properties under the same background fluid environment.

Rack Level Modeling of Air Flow Through Perforated Tile in a Data Center

Effective air flow distribution through perforated tiles is required to efficiently cool servers in a raised floor data center. We present detailed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of air flow through a perforated tile and its entrance to the adjacent server rack. The realistic geometrical details of the perforated tile, as well as of the rack are included in the model. Generally, models for air flow through perforated tiles specify a step pressure loss across the tile surface, or porous jump model based on the tile porosity. An improvement to this includes a momentum source specification above the tile to simulate the acceleration of the air flow through the pores, or body force model. In both of these models, geometrical details of tile such as pore locations and shapes are not included. More details increase the grid size as well as the computational time. However, the grid refinement can be controlled to achieve balance between the accuracy and computational time. We compared the results from CFD using geometrical resolution with the porous jump and body force model solution as well as with the measured flow field using particle image velocimetry (PIV) experiments. We observe that including tile geometrical details gives better results as compared to elimination of tile geometrical details and specifying physical models across and above the tile surface. A modification to the body force model is also suggested and improved results were achieved.