Model projections for household energy use in India

Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choice is determined for five end-use functions (cooking, water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances) and for five different income quintiles in rural and urban areas. The paper specifically explores the consequences of different assumptions for income distribution and rural electrification on residential sector energy use and CO(2) emissions, finding that results are clearly sensitive to variations in these parameters. As a result of population and economic growth, total Indian residential energy use is expected to increase by around 65-75% in 2050 compared to 2005, but residential carbon emissions may increase by up to 9-10 times the 2005 level. While a more equal income distribution and rural electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels and reduce poverty, there is a trade-off in terms of higher CO(2) emissions via increased electricity use. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Suitable Locations for Generation Expansion in Restructured Power Systems: A Novel Concept of T-index Thukaram

In developing countries, a high rate of growth in the demand for electric energy is felt, and so the addition of new generating units becomes inevitable. In deregulated power systems, private generating stations are encouraged to add new generations. Some of the factors considered while placing a new generating unit are: availability of esources, ease of transmitting power, distance from the load centre, etc. Finding the most appropriate locations for generation expansion can be done by running repeated power flows and carrying system studies like analyzing the voltage profile, voltage stability, loss analysis, etc. In this paper a new methodology is proposed which will mainly consider the existing network topology. A concept of T-index is introduced in this paper, which considers the electrical distances between generator and load nodes. This index is used for ranking the most significant new generation expansion locations and also indicates the amount of permissible generations that can be installed at these new locations. This concept facilitates for the medium and long term planning of power generation expansions within the available transmission corridors. Studies carried out on an EHV equivalent 10-bus system and IEEE 30 bus systems are presented for illustration purposes.

Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale ( measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W m(-2) yr(-1) in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios.

Non-polio enterovirus association with persistent diarrhea in children as revealed by a follow-up study of an Indian cohort during the first two years of life

Background: We recently reported significant association of non-polio enteroviruses (NPEVs) with acute diarrhea in children. Persistent diarrhea (PD) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in infants below two years of age in developing countries. Understanding age-dependent frequency and duration of NPEV infections is important to determine their association with persistent diarrhea and disease burden. Objectives: A cohort of 140 infants was followed for 6 months to 2 years of age to determine the frequency, duration, and association with PD of NPEV infections in comparison with rotavirus and other agents. Study design: Stool samples were collected every 14 days, and diarrheal episodes and their duration were recorded. Enteroviruses were characterized by RT-PCR and VP1 gene sequence analysis, rotavirus by electropherotyping, and other agents by PCR. Results: Of 4545 samples, negative for oral polio vaccine strains, 3907 (85.96%) and 638 (14.04%) were NPEV-negative and NPEV-positive, respectively, representing 403 (8.87%) infection episodes. About 68% of NPEV infections occurred during the first year with every child having at least one episode lasting between four days and four months. Approximately 38% and 22% of total diarrheal episodes were positive for NPEV and RV, respectively. While about 18% of NPEV infection episodes were associated with diarrhea, 6% being persistent, 13% of total diarrheal episodes were persistent involving infections by monotype NPEV strains or sequential infections by multiple strains and other agents. Conclusions: This is the first report revealing NPEVs as the single most frequently and persistently detected viral pathogen in every PD episode. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Analysis of five glucometers available in India

In this study, we report on the accuracy, precision and clinical acceptability of the five blood glucose meters available in India. Glucose levels of 100 blood samples were measured with each meter, at IISc health centre laboratory under same conditions and the results were compared with laboratory reference standard. In order to calculate the coefficient of variation (CV), each sample was tested three times. None of the glucometer showed 100 % compliance on CV measure. In terms of accuracy, none of the glucometer satisfied the most stringent ADA-1994 standard. In general all the glucometers showed improved accuracy with respect to the most relaxed ISO 1597:2003 standard. The Clarke error grid analysis was performed to assess the clinical acceptability of the glucometers. All five glucometers had more than 90 % of test results in Zone A and B. Bland-Altman analysis indicates that all glucometers show a positive bias, indicating that the measured values tend to be higher than the laboratory reference standard.

Immune responses against hepatitis C virus genotype 3a virus-like particles in mice: A novel VLP prime-adenovirus boost strategy

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection represents a major health threat to global population. In India, approximately 15-20% of cases of chronic liver diseases are caused by HCV infection. Although, new drug treatments hold great promise for HCV eradication in infected individuals, the treatments are highly expensive. A vaccine for preventing or treating HCV infection would be of great value, particularly in developing countries. Several preclinical trials of virus-like particle (VLP) based vaccine strategies are in progress throughout the world. Previously, using baculovirus based system, we have reported the production of hepatitis C virus-like particles (HCV-LPs) encoding structural proteins for genotype 3a, which is prevalent in India. In the present study, we have generated HCV-LPs using adenovirus based system and tried different immunization strategies by using combinations of both kinds of HCV-LPs with other genotype 3a-based immunogens. HCV-LPs and peptides based ELISAs were used to evaluate antibody responses generated by these combinations. Cell-mediated immune responses were measured by using T-cell proliferation assay and intracellular cytokine staining. We observed that administration of recombinant adenoviruses expressing HCV structural proteins as final booster enhances both antibody as well as T-cell responses. Additionally, reduction of binding of VLP and JFH1 virus to human hepatocellular carcinoma cells demonstrated the presence of neutralizing antibodies in immunized sera. Taken together, our results suggest that the combined regimen of VLP followed by recombinant adenovirus could more effectively inhibit HCV infection, endorsing the novel vaccine strategy. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wild Ungulate Decision-Making and the Role of Tiny Refuges in Human-Dominated Landscapes

Wildlife conservation in human-dominated landscapes requires that we understand how animals, when making habitat-use decisions, obtain diverse and dynamically occurring resources while avoiding risks, induced by both natural predators and anthropogenic threats. Little is known about the underlying processes that enable wild animals to persist in densely populated human-dominated landscapes, particularly in developing countries. In a complex, semi-arid, fragmented, human-dominated agricultural landscape, we analyzed the habitat-use of blackbuck, a large herbivore endemic to the Indian sub-continent. We hypothesized that blackbuck would show flexible habitat-use behaviour and be risk averse when resource quality in the landscape is high, and less sensitive to risk otherwise. Overall, blackbuck appeared to be strongly influenced by human activity and they offset risks by using small protected patches (similar to 3 km(2)) when they could afford to do so. Blackbuck habitat use varied dynamically corresponding with seasonally-changing levels of resources and risks, with protected habitats registering maximum use. The findings show that human activities can strongly influence and perhaps limit ungulate habitat-use and behaviour, but spatial heterogeneity in risk, particularly the presence of refuges, can allow ungulates to persist in landscapes with high human and livestock densities.