Multi-scale interactions and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon

Following the seminal work of Charney and Shukla (198 1), the tropical climate is recognised to be more predictable than extra tropical climate as it is largely forced by 'external' slowly varying forcing and less sensitive to initial conditions. However, the Indian summer monsoon is an exception within the tropics where 'internal' low frequency (LF) oscillations seem to make significant contribution to its interannual variability (IAV) and makes it sensitive to initial conditions. Quantitative estimate of contribution of 'internal' dynamics to IAV of Indian monsoon is made using long experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and through analysis of long daily observations. Both AGCM experiments and observations indicate that more than 50% of IAV of the monsoon is contributed by 'internal' dynamics making the predictable signal (external component) burried in unpredictable noise (internal component) of comparable amplitude. Better understanding of the nature of the 'internal' LF variability is crucial for any improvement in predicition of seasonal mean monsoon. Nature of 'internal' LF variability of the monsoon and mechanism responsible for it are investigated and shown that vigorous monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) with time scale between 10-70 days are primarily responsible for generating the 'internal' IAV. The monsoon ISO's do this through scale interactions with synoptic disturbances (1-7 day time scale) on one hand and the annual cycle on the other. The spatial structure of the monsoon ISO's is similar to that of the seasonal mean. It is shown that frequency of occurance of strong (weak) phases of the ISO is different in different seasons giving rise to stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. Change in the large scale circulation during strong (weak) phases of the ISO make it favourable (inhibiting) for cyclogenesis and gives rise to space time clustering of synoptic activity. This process leads to enhanced (reduced) rainfall in seasons of higher frequency of occurence strong (weak) phases of monsoon ISO.

Monsoon Regimes and Processes in CCSM4. Part I: The Asian-Australian Monsoon

The simulation characteristics of the Asian-Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4)] to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean-atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian-Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Nino in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon-ENSO connection.

Characteristics of Arabian Sea mini warm pool and Indian summer monsoon

Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP) is a part of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool and formed in the eastern Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the summer monsoon season. This warm pool attained its maximum intensity during the pre-monsoon season and dissipated with the commencement of summer monsoon. The main focus of the present work was on the triggering of the dissipation of this warm pool and its relation to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. This phenomenon was studied utilizing NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric and Research) re-analysis data, TRMM Micro wave Imager (TMI) and observational data. To define the ASMWP, sea surface temperature exceeding 30.25A degrees C was taken as the criteria. The warm pool attained its maximum dimension and intensity nearly 2 weeks prior to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. Interestingly, the warm pool started its dissipation immediately after attaining its maximum core temperature. This information can be included in the present numerical models to enhance the prediction capability. It was also found that the extent and intensity of the ASMWP varied depending on the type of monsoon i.e., excess, normal, and deficient monsoon. Maximum core temperature and wide coverage of the warm pool observed during the excess monsoon years compared to normal and deficient monsoon years. The study also revealed a strong relationship between the salinity in the eastern Arabian Sea and the nature of the monsoon.

Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

A summer monsoon pump to keep the Bay of Bengal salty

The Bay of Bengal receives a large influx of freshwater from precipitation and river discharge. Outflow of excess freshwater and inflow of saltier water is required to prevent the bay from freshening. Relatively fresh water flows out of the bay along its boundaries and inflow of saltier water occurs via the Summer Monsoon Current (SMC), which flows eastward from the Arabian Sea into the bay. This saltier water, however, slides under the lighter surface water of the bay. Maintaining the salt balance of the bay therefore demands upward mixing of this saltier, subsurface water. Here, we show that an efficient mechanism for this mixing is provided by upward pumping of saltier water in several bursts during the summer monsoon along the meandering path of the SMC. Advection by currents can then take this saltier water into the rest of the basin, allowing the bay to stay salty despite a large net freshwater input.

Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Phytoplankton size structure in the southern Bay of Bengal modified by the Summer Monsoon Current and associated eddies: Implications on the vertical biogenic flux

The present study combines field and satellite observations to investigate how hydrographical transformations influence phytoplankton size structure in the southern Bay of Bengal during the peak Southwest Monsoon/Summer Monsoon (July-August). The intrusion of the Summer Monsoon Current (SMC) into the Bay of Bengal and associated changes in sea surface chemistry, traceable eastward up to 90 degrees E along 8 degrees N, seems to influence biology of the region significantly. Both in situ and satellite (MODIS) data revealed low surface chlorophyll except in the area influenced by the SMC During the study period, two well-developed cydonic eddies (north) and an anti-cyclonic eddy (south), closely linked to the main eastward flow of the SMC, were sampled. Considering the capping effect of the low-saline surface water that is characteristic of the Bay of Bengal, the impact of the cyclonic eddy, estimated in terms of enhanced nutrients and chlorophyll, was mostly restricted to the subsurface waters (below 20 m depth). Conversely, the anti-cyclonic eddy aided by the SMC was characterized by considerably higher nutrient concentration and chlorophyll in the upper water column (upper 60 m), which was contrary to the general characteristic of such eddies. Albeit smaller phytoplankton predominated the southern Bay of Bengal (60-95% of the total chlorophyll), the contribution of large phytoplankton was double in the regions influenced by the SMC and associated eddies. Multivariate analysis revealed the extent to which SMC-associated eddies spatially influence phytoplankton community structure. The study presents the first direct quantification of the size structure of phytoplankton from the southern Bay of Bengal and demonstrates that the SMC-associated hydrographical ramifications significantly increase the phytoplankton biomass contributed by larger phytoplankton and thereby influence the vertical opal and organic carbon flux in the region. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

Intraseasonal response of mixed layer temperature and salinity in the Bay of Bengal to heat and freshwater flux

Buoy and satellite data show pronounced subseasonal oscillations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the summertime Bay of Bengal. The SST oscillations are forced mainly by surface heat flux associated with the active break cycle of the south Asian summer monsoon. The input of freshwater (FW) from summer rain and rivers to the bay is large, but not much is known about subseasonal salinity variability. We use 2002-2007 observations from three Argo floats with 5 day repeat cycle to study the subseasonal response of temperature and salinity to surface heat and freshwater flux in the central Bay of Bengal. About 95% of Argo profiles show a shallow halocline, with substantial variability of mixed layer salinity. Estimates of surface heat and freshwater flux are based on daily satellite data sampled along the float trajectory. We find that intraseasonal variability of mixed layer temperature is mainly a response to net surface heat flux minus penetrative radiation during the summer monsoon season. In winter and spring, however, temperature variability appears to be mainly due to lateral advection rather than local heat flux. Variability of mixed layer freshwater content is generally independent of local surface flux (precipitation minus evaporation) in all seasons. There are occasions when intense monsoon rainfall leads to local freshening, but these are rare. Large fluctuations in FW appear to be due to advection, suggesting that freshwater from rivers and rain moves in eddies or filaments.

The impact of latent heating on the location and strength of the tropical easterly jet

The tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is a prominent atmospheric circulation feature observed during the Asian summer monsoon. It is generally assumed that sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau directly influences the location of the TEJ. However, other studies have suggested the importance of latent heating in determining the jet location. In this paper, the relative importance of latent heating on the maintenance of the TEJ is explored through simulations with a general circulation model. The simulation of the TEJ by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 is discussed in detail. These simulations showed that the location of the TEJ is well correlated with the location of the precipitation. Significant zonal shifts in the location of the precipitation resulted in similar shifts in the zonal location of the TEJ. These zonal shifts had minimal effect on the large-scale structure of the jet. Further, provided that precipitation patterns were relatively unchanged, orography did not directly impact the location of the TEJ. These changes were robust even with changes in the cumulus parameterization. This suggests the potential important role of latent heating in determining the location and structure of the TEJ. These results were used to explain the significant differences in the zonal location of the TEJ in the years 1988 and 2002. To understand the contribution of the latitudinal location of latent heating on the strength of the TEJ, aqua-planet simulations were carried out. It has been shown that for similar amounts of net latent heating, the jet is stronger when heating is in the higher tropical latitudes. This may partly explain the reason for the jet to be very strong during the JJA monsoon season.

Local and remote impacts of direct aerosol forcing on Asian monsoon

The impact of heating by black carbon aerosols on Indian summer monsoon has remained inconclusive. Some investigators have predicted that black carbon aerosols reduce monsoon rainfall while others have argued that it will increase monsoon rainfall. These conclusions have been based on local influence of aerosols on the radiative fluxes. The impact of aerosol-like heating in one region on the rainfall in a remote region has not been examined in detail. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, it has been shown that remote influence of aerosol-like heating can be as important as local influence on Indian summer monsoon. Precipitation in northern Arabian Sea and north-west Indian region increased by 16% in June to July when aerosol-like heating were present globally. The corresponding increase in precipitation due to presence of aerosol-like heating only over South Asia (local impact) and East Asia (remote impact) were 28 and 13%, respectively. This enhancement in precipitation was due to destabilization of the atmosphere in pre-monsoon season that affected subsequent convection. Moreover, pre-monsoon heating of the lower troposphere changed the circulation substantially that enabled influx of more moisture over certain regions and reduced the moist static stability of the atmosphere. It has been shown that regional aerosol heating can have large impact on the phase of upper tropospheric Rossby wave in pre-monsoon season, which acts as a primary mechanism behind teleconnection and leads to the change in precipitation during monsoon season. These results demonstrate that changes in aerosol in one region can influence the precipitation in a remote region through changes in circulation.

On global summer monsoonal drought mechanics

It is shown that within the framework of a linear five-level quasi-geostrophic steady state global model the middle latitude systems can always have significant influence on the Asian summer monsoonal system through the lower tropospheric monsoonal westerly window region around 80°E. It is hypothesized that quasistationarity of the middle latitude longwave systems results in stronger teleconnections through this window and the consequent monsoon breaks when the phase is right.

The physics of ENSO-monsoon connection

The physical mechanism through which Ei-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to produce deficient precipitation over Indian continent is investigated using both observations as well as a general circulation model. Both analysis of observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) study show that the planetary scale response associated with ENSO primarily influences the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Through this interaction it tends to favour the equatorial heat source, enhance precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean and indirectly cause a decrease in continental precipitation through induced subsidence. This situation is further complicated by the fact the regional tropospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) has a bimodal structure over this region with large amplitude over the Indian continent. While the ENSO response has a quasi-four year periodicity and tends peak during beginning of the calendar year, the QBO mode tends to peak during northern summer. Thus, the QBO mode exerts a stronger influence on the interannual variability of the monsoon. The strength of the Indian monsoon in a given year depends on the combined effect of the ENSO and the QBO mode. Sines the two oscillations have disparate time scales, exact phase information of the two modes during northern summer is important in determining the Indian summer monsoon. The physical mechanism of the interannual variations of the Indian monsoon precipitation associated with ENSO presented here is similar to the physical process that cause intraseasonal 'active', 'break' oscillations of the monsoon.