The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

Correlation filtering: a terrain correction method for aeromagnetic maps with application

In correlation filtering we attempt to remove that component of the aeromagnetic field which is closely related to the topography. The magnetization vector is assumed to be spatially variable, but it can be successively estimated under the additional assumption that the magnetic component due to topography is uncorrelated with the magnetic signal of deeper origin. The correlation filtering was tested against a synthetic example. The filtered field compares very well with the known signal of deeper origin. We have also applied this method to real data from the south Indian shield. It is demonstrated that the performance of the correlation filtering is superior in situations where the direction of magnetization is variable, for example, where the remnant magnetization is dominant.

Distributed computation of fixed points of infinity-nonexpansive maps

The distributed implementation of an algorithm for computing fixed points of an infinity-nonexpansive map is shown to converge to the set of fixed points under very general conditions.

Dynamic recrystallisation during hot working of Zr-2 center dot 5Nb: Characterisation using processing maps

The characteristics of the hot deformation of Zr-2.5Nb (wt-%) in the temperature range 650-950 degrees C and in the strain rate range 0.001-100 s(-1) have been studied using hot compression testing. Two different preform microstructures: equiaxed (alpha + beta) and beta transformed have been investigated. For this study, the approach of processing maps has been adopted and their interpretation carried out using the dynamic materials model. The efficiency of power dissipation given by [2m/(m + 1)], where m is the strain rate sensitivity, is plotted as a function of temperature and strain rate to obtain a processing map. A domain of dynamic recrystallisation has been identified in the maps of equiaxed (alpha + beta) and beta transformed preforms. In the case of equiaxed (alpha + beta), the stress-strain curves are steady state and the dynamic recrystallisation domain in the map occurs with a peak efficiency of 45% at 850 degrees C and 0.001 s(-1). On the other hand the beta transformed preform exhibits stress-strain curves with continuous flow softening. The corresponding processing map shows a domain of dynamic recrystallisation occurring by the shearing of alpha platelets followed by globularisation with a peak efficiency of 54% at 750 degrees C and 0.001 s(-1). The characteristics of dynamic recrystallisation are analysed on the basis of a simple model which considers the rates of nucleation and growth of recrystallised gains. Calculations show that these two rates are nearly equal and that the nucleation of dynamic recrystallisation is essentially controlled by mechanical recovery involving the cross-slip of screw dislocations. Analysis of flow instabilities using a continuum criterion revealed that Zi-2.5Nb exhibits flow localisation at temperatures lower than 700 degrees C and strain rates higher than 1 s(-1).

Characterization of hot deformation behaviour of Zr---2.5Nb---0.5Cu using processing maps

The characteristics of hot deformation of beta-quenched Zr-2.5Nb-0.5Cu in the temperature range 650-1050 degrees C and in the strain rate range 0.001-100 s(-1) have been studied using hot compression testing. For this study, the approach of processing maps has been adopted and their interpretation done using the Dynamic Materials Model. The efficiency of power dissipation given by [2m/(m + 1)], where m is strain rate sensitivity, is plotted as a function of temperature and strain rate to obtain a processing map. The processing map for Zr-2.5Nb-0.5Cu within (alpha + beta) phase field showed a domain of dynamic recrystallization, occurring by shearing of alpha-platelets followed by spheroidization, with a peak efficiency of 48% at 750 degrees C and 0.001 s(-1). The stress-strain curves in this domain had features of continuous flow softening and all these are similar to that in Zr-2.5Nb alloy. In the beta-phase field, a second domain with a peak efficiency of 47% occurred at 1050 degrees C and 0.001 s(-1) and this domain is correlated with the superplasticity of beta-phase. The beta-deformation characteristics of this alloy are similar to that observed in pure beta-zirconium with large grain size. Analysis of flow instabilities using a continuum criterion revealed that the Zr-2.5Nb-0.5Cu exhibits flow localization at temperatures higher than 800 degrees C and strain rates higher than about 30 s(-1) and that the addition of copper to Zr-2.5Nb reduces its susceptibility to flow instability, particularly in the (alpha + beta) phase field.

Industrial validation of processing maps of 316L stainless steel using hot forging, rolling, and extrusion

The development of microstructure in 316L stainless steel during industrial hot forming operations including press forging (strain rate of 0 . 15 s(-1)), rolling/extrusion (strain rate of 2-8 . 8 s(-1)), and hammer forging (strain rate of 100 s(-1)) at different temperatures in the range 600-1200 degrees C was studied with a view to validating the predictions of the processing map. The results showed that good col relation existed between the regimes indicated in the map and the product microstructures. The 316L stainless steel exhibited unstable flow in the form of flow localisation when hammer forged at temperatures above 900 degrees C, rolled below 1000 degrees C, or press forged below 900 degrees C. All these conditions must therefore be avoided in mechanical processing of the material. Conversely, in order to obtain defect free microstructures, ideally the material should be rolled at temperatures above 1100 degrees C, press forged at temperatures above 1000 degrees C, or hammer forged in the temperature range 600-900 degrees C. (C) 1996 The Institute of Materials.

Optimization of cold and warm workability in 304 stainless steel using instability maps

The deformation characteristics of stainless steel type AISI 3O4 under compression in the temperature range 20 degrees C to 600 degrees C and strain-rate range 0.001 to 100 s(-1) have been studied with a view to characterizing the flow instabilities occurring in the microstructure. At strain rates less than 5 s(-1), 304 stainless steel exhibits flow localization, whereas dynamic strain aging occurs at intermediate temperatures and below 0.5 s(-1). At room temperatures and strain rates less than 10 s(-1), martensite formation is observed. To avoid the preceding microstructural instabilities, cold and warm working should be carried out at strain rates greater than 5 s(-1). The continuum criterion, developed on the basis of the principles of maximum rate of entropy production and separability of the dissipation function, predicts accurately all the preceding instability features.

Optimization of cold and warm workability in stainless steel type AISI 316L using instability maps

The deformation characteristics of stainless steel type AISI 316L under compression in the temperature range 20 to 600 degrees C and strain rate range 0.001 to 100 s(-1) have been studied with a view to characterizing the flow instabilities occurring in the microstructure. At temperatures lower than 100 degrees C and strain rates higher than 0.1 s(-1), 316L stainless steel exhibits flow localization whereas dynamic strain aging (DSA) occurs at intermediate temperatures and below 1 s(-1). To avoid the above flow instabilities, cold working should be carried out at strain rates less than 0.1 s(-1). Warm working of stainless steel type AISI 316L may be done in the temperature and strain rate regime of: 300 to 400 degrees C and 0.001 s(-1) 300 to 450 degrees C and 0.01 s(-1): 450 to 600 degrees C and 0.1 s(-1); 500 degrees C and 1 s(-1) since these regions are free from flow instabilities like DSA and flow localization. The continuum criterion, developed on the basis of the principles of maximum rate of entropy production and separability of the dissipation function, predicts accurately all the above instability features.

Optimization of hot workability of an Al-Mg-Si alloy using processing maps

The hot workability of an Al-Mg-Si alloy has been studied by conducting constant strain-rate compression tests. The temperature range and strain-rate regime selected for the present study were 300-550 degrees C and 0.001-1 s(-1), respectively. On the basis of true stress data, the strain-rate sensitivity values were calculated and used for establishing processing maps following the dynamic materials model. These maps delineate characteristic domains of different dissipative mechanisms. Two domains of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) have been identified which are associated with the peak efficiency of power dissipation (34%) and complete reconstitution of as-cast microstructure. As a result, optimum hot ductility is achieved in the DRX domains. The strain rates at which DRX domains occur are determined by the second-phase particles such as Mg2Si precipitates and intermetallic compounds. The alloy also exhibits microstructural instability in the form of localized plastic deformation in the temperature range 300-350 degrees C and at strain rate 1 s(-1).

Milling maps and amorphization during mechanical alloying

The effect of various milling parameters such as, milling intensity, ball:powder weight ratio and number of balls on the glass forming ability of an elemental blend of composition Ti50Ni50 has been studied by mechanical alloying. In order to understand the results, all the milling parameters have been converted into two energy parameters, namely, impact energy of the ball and the total energy of milling. In a milling map of these two parameters, the conditions for amorphous phase formation have been isolated. A similar exercise has been carried out for Ti50Cu50 as a function of milling time at two milling intensities. The results indicate that a minimum impact energy of the ball and a minimum total energy are essential for amorphization by mechanical alloying.

The role of sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource management in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks in China and India

This paper contains an analysis of the technical options in agriculture for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks, arising from three distinct mechanisms: (i) increasing carbon sinks in soil organic matter and above-ground biomass; (ii) avoiding carbon emissions from farms by reducing direct and indirect energy use; and (iii) increasing renewable-energy production from biomass that either substitutes for consumption of fossil fuels or replaces inefficient burning of fuelwood or crop residues, and so avoids carbon emissions, together with use of biogas digesters and improved cookstoves. We then review best-practice sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects and initiatives in China and India, and analyse the annual net sinks being created by these projects, and the potential market value of the carbon sequestered. We conclude with a summary of the policy and institutional conditions and reforms required for adoption of best sustainability practice in the agricultural sector to achieve the desired reductions in emissions and increases in sinks. A review of 40 sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects in China and India under the three mechanisms estimated a carbon mitigation potential of 64.8 MtC yr(-1) from 5.5 Mha. The potential income for carbon mitigation is $324 million at $5 per tonne of carbon. The potential exists to increase this by orders of magnitude, and so contribute significantly to greenhouse-gas abatement. Most agricultural mitigation options also provide several ancillary benefits. However, there are many technical, financial, policy, legal and institutional barriers to overcome.

Validation of processing maps for a 15Cr-15Ni-2.2Mo-0.3Ti austenitic stainless steel using hot forging and rolling tests

The processing maps are being developed for use in optimising hot workability and controlling the microstructure of the product. The present investigation deals with the examination to assess the prediction of the processing maps for a 15Cr-15Ni-2.2Mo-0.3Ti austenitic stainless steel using forging and rolling tests at different temperatures in the range of 600-1200 degreesC. The tensile properties of these deformed products were evaluated at room temperature. The influence of the processing conditions, i.e. strain rate and temperature on the tensile properties of the deformed product were analysed to identify the optimum processing parameters. The results have shown good agreement between the regimes exhibited by the map and the properties of the rolled or forged product. The optimum parameters for processing of this steel were identified as rolling or press forging at temperatures above 1050 degreesC to obtain optimum product properties. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Contrained linear spectral unmixing technique for regional land cover mapping using MODIS data

Over the last few decades, there has been a significant land cover (LC) change across the globe due to the increasing demand of the burgeoning population and urban sprawl. In order to take account of the change, there is a need for accurate and up- to-date LC maps. Mapping and monitoring of LC in India is being carried out at national level using multi-temporal IRS AWiFS data. Multispectral data such as IKONOS, Landsat- TM/ETM+, IRS-1C/D LISS-III/IV, AWiFS and SPOT-5, etc. have adequate spatial resolution (~ 1m to 56m) for LC mapping to generate 1:50,000 maps. However, for developing countries and those with large geographical extent, seasonal LC mapping is prohibitive with data from commercial sensors of limited spatial coverage. Superspectral data from the MODIS sensor are freely available, have better temporal (8 day composites) and spectral information. MODIS pixels typically contain a mixture of various LC types (due to coarse spatial resolution of 250, 500 and 1000 m), especially in more fragmented landscapes. In this context, linear spectral unmixing would be useful for mapping patchy land covers, such as those that characterise much of the Indian subcontinent. This work evaluates the existing unmixing technique for LC mapping using MODIS data, using end- members that are extracted through Pixel Purity Index (PPI), Scatter plot and N-dimensional visualisation. The abundance maps were generated for agriculture, built up, forest, plantations, waste land/others and water bodies. The assessment of the results using ground truth and a LISS-III classified map shows 86% overall accuracy, suggesting the potential for broad-scale applicability of the technique with superspectral data for natural resource planning and inventory applications.