Comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Andaman-Nicobar Regions

An updated catalog of earthquakes has been prepared for the Andaman-Nicobar and adjoining regions. The catalog was homogenized to a unified magnitude scale, and declustering of the catalog was performed to remove aftershocks and foreshocks. Eleven regional source zones were identified in the study area to account for local variability in seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters were estimated for each of these source zones, and the seismic hazard evaluation of the Andaman-Nicobar region has been performed using different source models and attenuation relations. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude, and attenuation relationships). The hazard maps for different periods have been produced for horizontal ground motion on the bedrock level.

A study of vertical cloud structure of the Indian summer monsoon using CloudSat data

Precise specification of the vertical distribution of cloud optical properties is important to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying the radiative impacts of clouds. The new global observations of vertical profiles of clouds from the CloudSat mission provide opportunities to describe cloud structures and to improve parameterization of clouds in the weather and climate prediction models. In this study, four years (2007-2010) of observations of vertical structure of clouds from the CloudSat cloud profiling radar have been used to document the mean vertical structure of clouds associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its intra-seasonal variability. Active and break monsoon spells associated with the intra-seasonal variability of ISM have been identified by an objective criterion. For the present analysis, we considered CloudSat derived column integrated cloud liquid and ice water, and vertically profiles of cloud liquid and ice water content. Over the South Asian monsoon region, deep convective clouds with large vertical extent (up to 14 km) and large values of cloud water and ice content are observed over the north Bay of Bengal. Deep clouds with large ice water content are also observed over north Arabian Sea and adjoining northwest India, along the west coast of India and the south equatorial Indian Ocean. The active monsoon spells are characterized by enhanced deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, west coast of India and northeast Arabian Sea and suppressed convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the Bay of Bengal, cloud liquid water content and ice water content is enhanced by similar to 90 and similar to 200 % respectively during the active spells. An interesting feature associated with the active spell is the vertical tilting structure of positive CLWC and CIWC anomalies over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which suggests a pre-conditioning process for the northward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal variability. It is also observed that during the break spells, clouds are not completely suppressed over central India. Instead, clouds with smaller vertical extent (3-5 km) are observed due to the presence of a heat low type of circulation. The present results will be useful for validating the vertical structure of clouds in weather and climate prediction models.

Characterizing drought using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability concept

This study borrows the measures developed for the operation of water resources systems as a means of characterizing droughts in a given region. It is argued that the common approach of assessing drought using a univariate measure (severity or reliability) is inadequate as decision makers need assessment of the other facets considered here. It is proposed that the joint distribution of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (referred to as RRV in a reservoir operation context), assessed using soil moisture data over the study region, be used to characterize droughts. Use is made of copulas to quantify the joint distribution between these variables. As reliability and resilience vary in a nonlinear but almost deterministic way, the joint probability distribution of only resilience and vulnerability is modeled. Recognizing the negative association between the two variables, a Plackett copula is used to formulate the joint distribution. The developed drought index, referred to as the drought management index (DMI), is able to differentiate the drought proneness of a given area when compared to other areas. An assessment of the sensitivity of the DMI to the length of the data segments used in evaluation indicates relative stability is achieved if the data segments are 5years or longer. The proposed approach is illustrated with reference to the Malaprabha River basin in India, using four adjoining Climate Prediction Center grid cells of soil moisture data that cover an area of approximately 12,000 km(2). (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Linear and nonlinear optical properties of expanded porphyrins: a DMRG study

We study absorption spectra and two photon absorption coefficient of expanded porphyrins (EPs) by the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) technique. We employ the Pariser-Parr-Pople (PPP) Hamiltonian which includes long-range electron-electron interactions. We find that, in the 4n+2 EPs, there are two prominent low-lying one-photon excitations, while in 4n EPs, there is only one such excitation. We also find that 4n+2 EPs have large two-photon absorption cross sections compared to 4n EPs. The charge density rearrangement in the one-photon excited state is mostly at the pyrrole nitrogen site and at the meso carbon sites. In the two-photon states, the charge density rearrangement occurs mostly at the aza-ring sites. In the one-photon state, the C-C bond length in aza rings shows a tendency to become uniform. In the two-photon state, the bond distortions are on C-N bonds of the pyrrole ring and the adjoining C-C bonds which connect the pyrrole ring to the aza or meso carbon sites.

Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) invasion along streams in a heterogeneous landscape

Streams are periodically disturbed due to flooding, act as edges between habitats and also facilitate the dispersal of propagules, thus being potentially more vulnerable to invasions than adjoining regions. We used a landscape-wide transect-based sampling strategy and a mixed effects modelling approach to understand the effects of distance from stream, a rainfall gradient, light availability and fire history on the distribution of the invasive shrub Lantana camara L.(lantana) in the tropical dry forests of Mudumalai in southern India. The area occupied by lantana thickets and lantana stem abundance were both found to be highest closest to streams across this landscape with a rainfall gradient. There was no advantage in terms of increased abundance or area occupied by lantana when it grew closer to streams in drier areas as compared to moister areas. On an average, the area covered by lantana increased with increasing annual rainfall. Areas that experienced greater number of fires during 1989-2010 had lower lantana stem abundance irrespective of distance from streams. In this landscape, total light availability did not affect lantana abundance. Understanding the spatially variable environmental factors in a heterogeneous landscape influencing the distribution of lantana would aid in making informed management decisions at this scale.

Bearing capacity of circular foundations reinforced with geogrid sheets

The ultimate bearing capacity of a circular footing, placed over a soil mass which is reinforced with horizontal layers of circular reinforcement sheets, has been determined by using the upper bound theorem of the limit analysis in conjunction with finite elements and linear optimization. For performing the analysis, three different soil media have been separately considered, namely, (i) fully granular, (ii) cohesive frictional, and (iii) fully cohesive with an additional provision to account for an increase of cohesion with depth. The reinforcement sheets are assumed to be structurally strong to resist axial tension but without having any resistance to bending; such an approximation usually holds good for geogrid sheets. The shear failure between the reinforcement sheet and adjoining soil mass has been considered. The increase in the magnitudes of the bearing capacity factors (N-c and N-gamma) with an inclusion of the reinforcement has been computed in terms of the efficiency factors eta(c) and eta(gamma). The results have been obtained (i) for different values of phi in case of fully granular (c=0) and c-phi soils, and (ii) for different rates (m) at which the cohesion increases with depth for a purely cohesive soil (phi=0 degrees). The critical positions and corresponding optimum diameter of the reinforcement sheets, for achieving the maximum bearing capacity, have also been established. The increase in the bearing capacity with an employment of the reinforcement increases continuously with an increase in phi. The improvement in the bearing capacity becomes quite extensive for two layers of the reinforcements as compared to the single layer of the reinforcement. The results obtained from the study are found to compare well with the available theoretical and experimental data reported in literature. (C) 2014 The Japanese Geotechnical Society. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Kinematic flow patterns in slow deformation of a dense granular material

The kinematic flow pattern in slow deformation of a model dense granular medium is studied at high resolution using in situ imaging, coupled with particle tracking. The deformation configuration is indentation by a flat punch under macroscopic plane-strain conditions. Using a general analysis method, velocity gradients and deformation fields are obtained from the disordered grain arrangement, enabling flow characteristics to be quantified. The key observations are the formation of a stagnation zone, as in dilute granular flow past obstacles; occurrence of vortices in the flow immediately underneath the punch; and formation of distinct shear bands adjoining the stagnation zone. The transient and steady state stagnation zone geometry, as well as the strength of the vortices and strain rates in the shear bands, are obtained from the experimental data. All of these results are well-reproduced in exact-scale non-smooth contact dynamics simulations. Full 3D numerical particle positions from the simulations allow extraction of flow features that are extremely difficult to obtain from experiments. Three examples of these, namely material free surface evolution, deformation of a grain column below the punch and resolution of velocities inside the primary shear band, are highlighted. The variety of flow features observed in this model problem also illustrates the difficulty involved in formulating a complete micromechanical analytical description of the deformation.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Meridional gradients in aerosol vertical distribution over Indian Mainland: Observations and model simulations

Multi-year observations from the network of ground-based observatories (ARFINET), established under the project `Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India' (ARFI) of Indian Space Research Organization and space-borne lidar `Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization' (CALIOP) along with simulations from the chemical transport model `Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport' (GOCART), are used to characterize the vertical distribution of atmospheric aerosols over the Indian landmass and its spatial structure. While the vertical distribution of aerosol extinction showed higher values close to the surface followed by a gradual decrease at increasing altitudes, a strong meridional increase is observed in the vertical spread of aerosols across the Indian region in all seasons. It emerges that the strong thermal convections cause deepening of the atmospheric boundary layer, which although reduces the aerosol concentration at lower altitudes, enhances the concentration at higher elevations by pumping up more aerosols from below and also helping the lofted particles to reach higher levels in the atmosphere. Aerosol depolarization ratios derived from CALIPSO as well as the GOCART simulations indicate the dominance of mineral dust aerosols during spring and summer and anthropogenic aerosols in winter. During summer monsoon, though heavy rainfall associated with the Indian monsoon removes large amounts of aerosols, the prevailing southwesterly winds advect more marine aerosols over to landmass (from the adjoining oceans) leading to increase in aerosol loading at lower altitudes than in spring. During spring and summer months, aerosol loading is found to be significant, even at altitudes as high as 4 km, and this is proposed to have significant impacts on the regional climate systems such as Indian monsoon. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.