Signatures of Indian ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal

We investigate the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean during 1957-2008. Using tide-gauge and altimeter data, we show that IOD and ENSO leave characteristic signatures in the sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the Bay of Bengal. During a positive IOD event, negative SLAs are observed during April-December, with the SLAs decreasing continuously to a peak during September-November. During El Nino, negative SLAs are observed twice (April-December and November-July), with a relaxation between the two peaks. SLA signatures during negative IOD and La Nina events are much weaker. We use a linear, continuously stratified model of the Indian Ocean to simulate their sea level patterns of IOD and ENSO events. We then separate solutions into parts that correspond to specific processes: coastal alongshore winds, remote forcing from the equator via reflected Rossby waves, and direct forcing by interior winds within the bay. During pure IOD events, the SLAs are forced both from the equator and by direct wind forcing. During ENSO events, they are primarily equatorially forced, with only a minor contribution from direct wind forcing. Using a lead/lag covariance analysis between the Nino-3.4 SST index and Indian Ocean wind stress, we derive a composite wind field for a typical El Nino event: the resulting solution has two negative SLA peaks. The IOD and ENSO signatures are not evident off the west coast of India.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

On the linkage of mesospheric planetary waves with those of the lower atmosphere and ionosphere: A case study from Indian low latitudes

In this paper we study the planetary-scale wave features using concurrent observations of mesospheric wind and temperature, ionospheric h'F, and tropospheric wind from Tirunelveli, Gadanki, and Kolhapur, all located in the Indian low latitudes, made during February 2009. Our investigations reveal that 3 to 5 day periodicity, characterized as ultrafast Kelvin (UFK) waves, was persistent throughout the atmosphere during this period. These waves show clear signatures of upward wave propagation from troposphere to the upper mesosphere, linking the ionosphere through a clear correlation between mesospheric winds and h'F variations. We also note that the amplitude of this wave decreased as we moved away from the equator. These results are the first of their kind from Indian sector, portraying the vertical as well as latitudinal characteristics of the 3 to 5 day UFK waves simultaneously from the troposphere to the ionosphere.

Ganga-Brahmaputra river discharge from Jason-2 radar altimetry: An update to the long-term satellite-derived estimates of continental freshwater forcing flux into the Bay of Bengal

This paper discusses the use of Jason-2 radar altimeter measurements to estimate the Ganga-Brahmaputra surface freshwater flux into the Bay of Bengal for the period mid-2008 to December 2011. A previous estimate was generated for 1993-2008 using TOPEX-Poseidon, ERS-2 and ENVISAT, and is now extended using Jason-2. To take full advantages of the new availability of in situ rating curves, the processing scheme is adapted and the adjustments of the methodology are discussed here. First, using a large sample of in situ river height measurements, we estimate the standard error of Jason-2-derived water levels over the Ganga and the Brahmaputra to be respectively of 0.28 m and 0.19 m, or less than similar to 4% of the annual peak-to-peak variations of these two rivers. Using the in situ rating curves between water levels and river discharges, we show that Jason-2 accurately infers Ganga and Brahmaputra instantaneous discharges for 2008-2011 with mean errors ranging from similar to 2180 m(3)/s (6.5%) over the Brahmaputra to similar to 1458 m(3)/s (13%) over the Ganga. The combined Ganga-Brahmaputra monthly discharges meet the requirements of acceptable accuracy (15-20%) with a mean error of similar to 16% for 2009-2011 and similar to 17% for 1993-2011. The Ganga-Brahmaputra monthly discharge at the river mouths is then presented, showing a marked interannual variability with a standard deviation of similar to 12500 m(3)/s, much larger than the data set uncertainty. Finally, using in situ sea surface salinity observations, we illustrate the possible impact of extreme continental freshwater discharge event on the northern Bay of Bengal as observed in 2008.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics

The way in which basal tractions, associated with mantle convection, couples with the lithosphere is a fundamental problem in geodynamics. A successful lithosphere-mantle coupling model for the Earth will satisfy observations of plate motions, intraplate stresses, and the plate boundary zone deformation. We solve the depth integrated three-dimensional force balance equations in a global finite element model that takes into account effects of both topography and shallow lithosphere structure as well as tractions originating from deeper mantle convection. The contribution from topography and lithosphere structure is estimated by calculating gravitational potential energy differences. The basal tractions are derived from a fully dynamic flow model with both radial and lateral viscosity variations. We simultaneously fit stresses and plate motions in order to delineate a best-fit lithosphere-mantle coupling model. We use both the World Stress Map and the Global Strain Rate Model to constrain the models. We find that a strongly coupled model with a stiff lithosphere and 3-4 orders of lateral viscosity variations in the lithosphere are best able to match the observational constraints. Our predicted deviatoric stresses, which are dominated by contribution from mantle tractions, range between 20-70 MPa. The best-fitting coupled models predict strain rates that are consistent with observations. That is, the intraplate areas are nearly rigid whereas plate boundaries and some other continental deformation zones display high strain rates. Comparison of mantle tractions and surface velocities indicate that in most areas tractions are driving, although in a few regions, including western North America, tractions are resistive. Citation: Ghosh, A., W. E. Holt, and L. M. Wen (2013), Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics.

An integrated model for optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops

An integratedm odel is developed,b asedo n seasonailn puts of reservoiri nflow and rainfall in the irrigated area, to determine the optimal reservoir release policies and irrigation allocationst o multiple crops.T he model is conceptuallym ade up of two modules. Module 1 is an intraseasonal allocation model to maximize the sum of relative yieldso f all crops,f or a givens tateo f the systemu, singl inear programming(L P). The module takes into account reservoir storage continuity, soil moisture balance, and crop root growthw ith time. Module 2 is a seasonaal llocationm odel to derive the steadys tate reservoiro peratingp olicyu sings tochastidc ynamicp rogramming(S DP). Reservoir storage, seasonal inflow, and seasonal rainfall are the state variables in the SDP. The objective in SDP is to maximize the expected sum of relative yields of all crops in a year.The resultso f module 1 and the transitionp robabilitieso f seasonailn flow and rainfall form the input for module 2. The use of seasonailn puts coupledw ith the LP-SDP solution strategy in the present formulation facilitates in relaxing the limitations of an earlier study,w hile affectinga dditionali mprovementsT. he model is applied to an existing reservoir in Karnataka State, India.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.