Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A kinetic investigation of thermal degradation of poly(vinyl formals)

Several samples of poly(vinyl formal) having the same vinyl alcohol content (8–9%) but varying contents of vinyl acetate (6–22%) and vinyl formol (70–85%) were prepared and subjected to thermogravimetric analysis, in air and nitrogen atmospheres, employing both isothermal and dynamic methods. Kinetic parameters determined from both the isothermal and dynamic TGA data are compared. The activation energy is seen to be largely dependent on the degree of conversion, implying a complex degradation reaction. The activation energy is also much less for degradation in air than in nitrogen, which can be explained by a reaction with oxygen-producing structures favoring degradation. The activation energy is less sensitive to variation in polymer composition for degradation in air than in nitrogen. Thus, in the dynamic process, the activation energy value decreases (from 36 to 23 kcal/mole) with increasing acetate content (from 6 to 22%) in nitrogen atmosphere, while in air the activation energy value increases only moderately (from 21 to 27 kcal/mole) with increasing acetate content (from 6 to 22%). The order of reaction is nearly unity, irrespective of the composition of the polymer, both in air and nitrogen.

Homomorphic Analysis and Modeling of ECG Signals

Homomorphic analysis and pole-zero modeling of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals are presented in this paper. Four typical ECG signals are considered and deconvolved into their minimum and maximum phase components through cepstral filtering, with a view to study the possibility of more efficient feature selection from the component signals for diagnostic purposes. The complex cepstra of the signals are linearly filtered to extract the basic wavelet and the excitation function. The ECG signals are, in general, mixed phase and hence, exponential weighting is done to aid deconvolution of the signals. The basic wavelet for normal ECG approximates the action potential of the muscle fiber of the heart and the excitation function corresponds to the excitation pattern of the heart muscles during a cardiac cycle. The ECG signals and their components are pole-zero modeled and the pole-zero pattern of the models can give a clue to classify the normal and abnormal signals. Besides, storing only the parameters of the model can result in a data reduction of more than 3:1 for normal signals sampled at a moderate 128 samples/s

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

A kinetic investigation of thermal degradation of poly(vinyl formals)

Several samples of poly(vinyl formal) having the same vinyl alcohol content (8–9%) but varying contents of vinyl acetate (6–22%) and vinyl formol (70–85%) were prepared and subjected to thermogravimetric analysis, in air and nitrogen atmospheres, employing both isothermal and dynamic methods. Kinetic parameters determined from both the isothermal and dynamic TGA data are compared. The activation energy is seen to be largely dependent on the degree of conversion, implying a complex degradation reaction. The activation energy is also much less for degradation in air than in nitrogen, which can be explained by a reaction with oxygen-producing structures favoring degradation. The activation energy is less sensitive to variation in polymer composition for degradation in air than in nitrogen. Thus, in the dynamic process, the activation energy value decreases (from 36 to 23 kcal/mole) with increasing acetate content (from 6 to 22%) in nitrogen atmosphere, while in air the activation energy value increases only moderately (from 21 to 27 kcal/mole) with increasing acetate content (from 6 to 22%). The order of reaction is nearly unity, irrespective of the composition of the polymer, both in air and nitrogen.

Enhancement of fatigue life of Ni-Ti-Fe shape memory alloys by thermal cycling

The effect of thermal cycling on the load-controlled tension-tension fatigue behavior of a Ni-Ti-Fe shape memory alloy (SMA) at room temperature was studied. Considerable strain accumulation was observed to occur in this alloy under both quasi-static and cyclic loading conditions. Though, in all cases, steady-state is reached within the first 50-100 cycles, the accumulated steady-state strain, epsilon(p.ss), is much smaller in thermally cycled alloy. As a result, the fatigue performance of them was found to be significantly enhanced vis-a-vis the as-solutionized alloy. Furthermore, under load-controlled conditions, the fatigue life of Ni-Ti-Fe alloys was found to be exclusively dependent on epsilon(p.ss). Observations made by profilometry and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) indicate that the 200-500% enhancement in fatigue life of thermally cycled alloy is due to the homogeneous distribution of the accumulated fatigue strain. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal expansion of doped lanthanum gallates

Thermal expansion of several compositions of Sr and Mg-doped LaGaO3 including an A-site deficient composition (La0.9Sr0.1)(0.98)(Ga0.8Mg0.2)O-2.821 were measured in the temperature range from 298 to 1273 K. The effect of doping on thermal expansion was studied by varying the composition at one site of the perovskite structure (either A or B), while keeping the composition at the other site invariant. Thermal expansion varied nonlinearly with temperature and exhibited an inflexion between 550 and 620 K, probably related to the change in crystal structure from orthorhombic to rhombohedral. The dependence of average thermal expansion coefficient (alpha (av)) on the dopant concentration on either A or B site of the perovskite structure was found to be linear, when the composition at the other site was kept constant. Mg doping on the B-site had a greater effect on the average thermal expansion coefficient than Sr doping on the A-site. Cation deficiency at the A-site decreases thermal expansion when compositions at both sites are held constant.

Thermal decomposition of zirconyl oxalates I. Barium zirconyl oxalate

Conditions for the preparation of stoichiometric barium zirconyl oxalate heptahydrate (BZO) have been standardized. The thermal decomposition of BZO has been investigated employing TG, DTG and DTA techniques and chemical and gas analysis. The decomposition proceeds through four steps and is not affected much by the surrounding gas atmosphere. Both dehydration and oxalate decomposition take place in two steps. The formation of a transient intermediate containing both oxalate and carbonate groups is inferred. The decomposition of oxalate groups results in a carbonate of composition Ba2Zr2OsCO3, which decomposes between 600 and 800 ~ and yields barium zirconate. Chemical analysis, IR spectra and X-ray powder diffraction data support the identity of the intermediate as a separate entity.

Thermal decomposition of zirconyl oxalates I. Barium zirconyl oxalate

Conditions for the preparation of stoichiometric barium zirconyl oxalate heptahydrate (BZO) have been standardized. The thermal decomposition of BZO has been investigated employing TG, DTG and DTA techniques and chemical and gas analysis. The decomposition proceeds through four steps and is not affected much by the surrounding gas atmosphere. Both dehydration and oxalate decomposition take place in two steps. The formation of a transient intermediate containing both oxalate and carbonate groups is inferred. The decomposition of oxalate groups results in a carbonate of composition Ba2Zr2O5CO3, which decomposes between 600 and 800° and yields barium zirconate. Chemical analysis, IR spectra and X-ray powder diffraction data support the identity of the intermediate as a separate entity.Die Bedingungen für die Herstellung von stöchiometrischem Barium-zirconyl-oxalat Heptahydrat (BZO) wurden standardisiert. Die thermische Zersetzung von BZO wurde unter Einsatz der TG-, DTG- und DTA, sowie der chemischen und Gasanalyse untersucht. Die Zersetzung verläuft über vier Stufen und wird von der umgebenden Gasathmosphäre nicht besonders beeinflusst. Sowohl die Dehydratisierung als auch die Oxalatzersetzung erfolgt in zwei Stufen. Die Bildung einer intermediären Übergangsverbindung mit sowohl Oxalat- als auch Carbonatgruppen wirken hierbei mit. Die Zersetzung der Oxalatgruppen ergibt ein Carbonat der Zusammensetzung Ba2Zr2O5CO3, das zwischen 600 und 800° zersetzt wird und Bariumzirconat ergibt. Die Angaben der chemischen Analyse, der IR-Spekren und der Röntgen-Pulver-Diffraktion unterstützen die Identität der Intermediärverbindung als eine separate Einheit.On a standardisé les conditions de préparation de l'oxalate heptahydraté de zirconyle et de baryum (BZO) stoechiométrique. On a étudié la décomposition thermique de BZO par TG, TGD et ATD ainsi que par analyses chimiques et analyses des gaz. La décomposition a lieu en quatre étapes et n'est pas trop influencée par l'atmosphère ambiante. La déshydratation et la décomposition de l'oxalate ont lieu en deux étapes. Il se forme un composé intermédiaire de transition contenant à la fois les groupes oxalate et carbonate. La décomposition des groupes oxalate fournit un carbonate de composition Ba2Zr2O5CO3 qui se décompose entre 600 et 800° pour fournir du zirconate de baryum. L'analyse chimique, les spectres IR et la diffraction des rayons X sur poudre, apportent les preuves de l'existence d'un composé intermédiaire comme entité séparée.

Thermal decomposition of ethylene diamine diperchlorate

Thermal decomposition of ethylene diamine diperchlorate (EDDP) has been studied by differential-thermal analysis (DTA), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), isothermal weight-loss measurements and mass-spectrometric analysis of the decomposition products. It has been observed that EDDP decomposes in two temperature regions. The low-temperature decomposition stops at about 35 to 40 percent weight loss below 250°C. The reason for the low-temperature cessation may be the adsorption of excess ethylene diamine on the crystal surface of EDDP. An overall activation energy of 54 kcal per mole has been calculated for the thermal decomposition of EDDP. Mass-spectrometric analysis shows that the decomposition products are mainly CO2, H2O, HCl and N2. The following stoichiometry has been proposed for the thermal decomposition of EDDP: (−CH2NH3CIO4)2→2CO2O+2HCl+N2