Indian Ocean Dipole: Processes and impacts

Equatorial Indian Ocean is warmer in the east, has a deeper thermocline and mixed layer, and supports a more convective atmosphere than in the west. During certain years, the eastern Indian Ocean becomes unusually cold, anomalous winds blow from east to west along the equator and southeastward off the coast of Sumatra, thermocline and mixed layer lift up and the atmospheric convection gets suppressed. At the same time, western Indian Ocean becomes warmer and enhances atmospheric convection. This coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in which convection, winds, sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline take part actively is known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Propagation of baroclinic Kelvin and Rossby waves excited by anomalous winds, play an important role in the development of SST anomalies associated with the IOD. Since mean thermocline in the Indian Ocean is deep compared to the Pacific, it was believed for a long time that the Indian Ocean is passive and merely responds to the atmospheric forcing. Discovery of the IOD and studies that followed demonstrate that the Indian Ocean can sustain its own intrinsic coupled ocean-atmosphere processes. About 50% percent of the IOD events in the past 100 years have co-occurred with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the other half independently. Coupled models have been able to reproduce IOD events and process experiments by such models – switching ENSO on and off – support the hypothesis based on observations that IOD events develop either in the presence or absence of ENSO. There is a general consensus among different coupled models as well as analysis of data that IOD events co-occurring during the ENSO are forced by a zonal shift in the descending branch of Walker cell over to the eastern Indian Ocean. Processes that initiate the IOD in the absence of ENSO are not clear, although several studies suggest that anomalies of Hadley circulation are the most probable forcing function. Impact of the IOD is felt in the vicinity of Indian Ocean as well as in remote regions. During IOD events, biological productivity of the eastern Indian Ocean increases and this in turn leads to death of corals over a large area.Moreover, the IOD affects rainfall over the maritime continent, Indian subcontinent, Australia and eastern Africa. The maritime continent and Australia suffer from deficit rainfall whereas India and east Africa receive excess. Despite the successful hindcast of the 2006 IOD by a coupled model, forecasting IOD events and their implications to rainfall variability remains a major challenge as understanding reasons behind an increase in frequency of IOD events in recent decades.

Coherent rainfall zones of the Indian region

We have delineated rainfall zones for the Indian region that are coherent with respect to the variations of the summer monsoon rainfall. Within each zone, the time series of the summer monsoon rainfall at every pair of stations are significantly positively correlated, and the mean interseries correlation for each zone is high. The interseries correlation data set is analysed in order to delineate the rainfall zones, using an objective method specifically developed for the purpose. Each of the zonal averages are shown to be representative of the zone as a whole. We suggest that this regionalization is appropriate for study of the variation of the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region on interannual and larger scales.

Combustion synthesis and properties of fine-particle rare-earth-metal zirconates, Ln2Zr2O7

Fine-particle rare-earth-metal zirconates, Ln2Zr2O7, where Ln = La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Gd and Dy having the pyrochlore structure have been prepared using a novel combustion process. The process employs aqueous solutions of the corresponding rare-earth-metal nitrate, zirconium nitrate and carbohydrazide/urea in the required molar ratio. When the solution is rapidly heated to 350–500 °C it boils, foams and burns autocatalytically to yield voluminous oxides. The formation of single-phase Ln2Zr2O7 has been confirmed by powder X-ray diffraction, infrared and fluorescence spectroscopy. The solid combustion products are fine, having surface areas in the range 6–20 m2 g–1. The cold-pressed Pr2Zr2O7 compact when sintered at 1500 °C, 4 h in air, achieved 99% theoretical density.

Impact of moisture variations on the circulation of the south-west monsoon

The impact of moisture anomalies on the circulation of the south-west Indian monsoon has been studied with a general circulation model. Newtonian relaxation is adopted to subject the model atmosphere under sustained moisture anomalies. The impact of negative anomalies of moisture was seen as a divergent circulation anomaly, while the positive anomaly was a stronger convergent anomaly. Although the humidity fields display a resilient behaviour, and relax back to normal patterns 1–2 days after the forcing terms in humidity are withdrawn, the circulation anomalies created by the moisture variation keeps growing. A feedback between positive moisture anomalies and low level convergence exists, which is terminated in the absence of external forcings.

Influence of Starch Polysaccharide on the Remolded Properties of 2 Indian clay Samples

The reported presence in marine clays and the recognized role of polysaccharide as a bonding agent provided the motivation to examine the role of starch polysaccharide in the remoulded properties of nonswelling (kaolinite) and swelling (bentonite) groups of clays. The starch polysaccharide belongs to a group of naturally occurring, large-sized organic molecules (termed polymers) and is built up by extensive repetition of simple chemical units called repeat units. The results of the study indicate that the impact of the starch polysaccharide on the remoulded properties of clays is dependent on the mineralogy of the clays. On addition to bentonite clay, the immensely large number of segments (repeat units) of the starch polysaccharide create several polymer segment - clay surface bonds that cause extensive aggregation of the bentonite units layers. The aggregation of the bentonite unit layers greatly curtails the available surface area of the clay mineral for diffuse ion layer formation. The reduction in diffuse ion layer thickness markedly lowers the consistency limits and vane shear strength of the bentonite clay. On addition to kaolinite, the numerous polymer segment - clay surface bonds enhance the tendency of the kaolinite particles to flocculate. The enhanced particle flocculation is responsible apparently for a small to moderate increase in the liquid limit and remoulded undrained strength of the nonswelling clay.

Mechanisms of variability and predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

A conceptual model is proposed to explain the observed aperiodicity in the short term climate fluctuations of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. This is based on the evidence presented here that the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system sustains a low frequency inter-annual mode and a host of higher frequency intra-seasonal unstable modes. At long wavelengths, the low frequency mode is dominant while at short wavelengths, the high frequency modes are dominant resulting in the co-existence of a long wave low frequency mode with some short wave intra-seasonal modes in the tropical coupled system. It is argued that due to its long wavelength, the low frequency mode would behave like a linear oscillator while the higher frequency short wave modes would be nonlinear. The conceptual model envisages that an interaction between the low frequency linear oscillator and the high frequency nonlinear oscillations results in the observed aperiodicity of the tropical coupled system. This is illustrated by representing the higher frequency intra-seasonal oscillations by a nonlinear low order model which is then coupled to a linear oscillator with a periodicity of four years. The physical mechanism resulting in the aperiodicity in the low frequency oscillations and implications of these results on the predictability of the coupled system are discussed.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Breast cancer and human papillomavirus infection: No evidence of HPV etiology of breast cancer in Indian women

Background: Two clinically relevant high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) types 16 and 18 are etiologically associated with the development of cervical carcinoma and are also reported to be present in many other carcinomas in extra-genital organ sites. Presence of HPV has been reported in breast carcinoma which is the second most common cancer in India and is showing a fast rising trend in urban population. The two early genes E6 and E7 of HPV type 16 have been shown to immortalize breast epithelial cells in vitro, but the role of HPV infection in breast carcinogenesis is highly controversial. Present study has therefore been undertaken to analyze the prevalence of HPV infection in both breast cancer tissues and blood samples from a large number of Indian women with breast cancer from different geographic regions. Methods: The presence of all mucosal HPVs and the most common high-risk HPV types 16 and 18 DNA was detected by two different PCR methods - (i) conventional PCR assays using consensus primers (MY09/11, or GP5 +/GP6+) or HPV16 E6/E7 primers and (ii) highly sensitive Real-Time PCR. A total of 228 biopsies and corresponding 142 blood samples collected prospectively from 252 patients from four different regions of India with significant socio-cultural, ethnic and demographic variations were tested. Results: All biopsies and blood samples of breast cancer patients tested by PCR methods did not show positivity for HPV DNA sequences in conventional PCRs either by MY09/11 or by GP5+/GP6+/HPV16 E6/E7 primers. Further testing of these samples by real time PCR also failed to detect HPV DNA sequences. Conclusions: Lack of detection of HPV DNA either in the tumor or in the blood DNA of breast cancer patients by both conventional and real time PCR does not support a role of genital HPV in the pathogenesis of breast cancer in Indian women.

Cement stabilised rammed earth. Part A: compaction characteristics and physical properties of compacted cement stabilised soils

Rammed earth is used for load bearing walls of buildings and there is growing interest in this low carbon building material. This paper is focused on understanding the compaction characteristics and physical properties of compacted cement stabilised soil mixtures and cement stabilised rammed earth (CSRE). This experimental study addresses (a) influence of soil composition, cement content, time lag on compaction characteristics of stabilised soils and CSRE and (b) effect of moulding water content and density on compressive strength and water absorption of compacted cement stabilised soil mixes. Salient conclusions of the study are (a) compaction characteristics of soils are not affected by the addition of cement, (b) there is 50% fall in strength of CSRE for 10 h time lag, (c) compressive strength of compacted cement stabilised soil increases with increase in density irrespective of moulding moisture content and cement content, and (d) compressive strength increases with the increase in moulding water content and compaction of CSRE on the wet side of OMC is beneficial in terms of strength.

Cement stabilised rammed earth. Part B: compressive strength and stress-strain characteristics

Strength and behaviour of cement stabilised rammed earth (CSRE) is a scantily explored area. The present study is focused on the strength and elastic properties of CSRE. Characteristics of CSRE are influenced by soil composition, density of rammed earth, cement and moisture content. The study is focused on examining (a) role of clay content of the soil on strength of CSRE and arriving at optimum clay fraction of the soil mix, (b) influence of moisture content, cement content and density on strength and (c) stress-strain relationships and elastic properties for CSRE. Major conclusions are (a) there is considerable difference between dry and wet compressive strength of CSRE and the wet to dry strength ratio depends upon the clay fraction of soil mix and cement content, (b) optimum clay fraction yielding maximum compressive strength for CSRE is about 16%, (c) strength of CSRE is highly sensitive to density and for a 20% increase in density the strength increases by 300-500% and (d) in dry state the ultimate strain at failure for CSRE is as high as 1.5%, which is unusual for brittle materials.

Paleoseismological evidence of surface faulting along the northeastern Himalayan front, India: Timing, size, and spatial extent of great earthquakes

The similar to 2500 km long Himalayan arc has experienced three large to great earthquakes of M-w 7.8 to 8.4 during the past century, but none produced surface rupture. Paleoseismic studies have been conducted during the last decade to begin understanding the timing, size, rupture extent, return period, and mechanics of the faulting associated with the occurrence of large surface rupturing earthquakes along the similar to 2500 km long Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) system of India and Nepal. The previous studies have been limited to about nine sites along the western two-thirds of the HFT extending through northwest India and along the southern border of Nepal. We present here the results of paleoseismic investigations at three additional sites further to the northeast along the HFT within the Indian states of West Bengal and Assam. The three sites reside between the meizoseismal areas of the 1934 Bihar-Nepal and 1950 Assam earthquakes. The two westernmost of the sites, near the village of Chalsa and near the Nameri Tiger Preserve, show that offsets during the last surface rupture event were at minimum of about 14 m and 12 m, respectively. Limits on the ages of surface rupture at Chalsa (site A) and Nameri (site B), though broad, allow the possibility that the two sites record the same great historical rupture reported in Nepal around A.D. 1100. The correlation between the two sites is supported by the observation that the large displacements as recorded at Chalsa and Nameri would most likely be associated with rupture lengths of hundreds of kilometers or more and are on the same order as reported for a surface rupture earthquake reported in Nepal around A.D. 1100. Assuming the offsets observed at Chalsa and Nameri occurred synchronously with reported offsets in Nepal, the rupture length of the event would approach 700 to 800 km. The easternmost site is located within Harmutty Tea Estate (site C) at the edges of the 1950 Assam earthquake meizoseismal area. Here the most recent event offset is relatively much smaller (<2.5 m), and radiocarbon dating shows it to have occurred after A.D. 1100 (after about A.D. 1270). The location of the site near the edge of the meizoseismal region of the 1950 Assam earthquake and the relatively lesser offset allows speculation that the displacement records the 1950 M-w 8.4 Assam earthquake. Scatter in radiocarbon ages on detrital charcoal has not resulted in a firm bracket on the timing of events observed in the trenches. Nonetheless, the observations collected here, when taken together, suggest that the largest of thrust earthquakes along the Himalayan arc have rupture lengths and displacements of similar scale to the largest that have occurred historically along the world's subduction zones.

Seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon

Under the project `Seasonal Prediction of the Indian Monsoon' (SPIM), the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by five atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) during 1985-2004 was assessed. The project was a collaborative effort of the coordinators and scientists from the different modelling groups across the country. All the runs were made at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC) at Bangalore on the PARAM Padma supercomputing system. Two sets of simulations were made for this purpose. In the first set, the AGCMs were forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) for May-September during 1985-2004. In the second set, runs were made for 1987, 1988, 1994, 1997 and 2002 forced by SST which was obtained by assuming that the April anomalies persist during May-September. The results of the first set of runs show, as expected from earlier studies, that none of the models were able to simulate the correct sign of the anomaly of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for all the years. However, among the five models, one simulated the correct sign in the largest number of years and the second model showed maximum skill in the simulation of the extremes (i.e. droughts or excess rainfall years). The first set of runs showed some common bias which could arise either from an excessive sensitivity of the models to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or an inability of the models to simulate the link of the Indian monsoon rainfall to Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), or both. Analysis of the second set of runs showed that with a weaker ENSO forcing, some models could simulate the link with EQUINOO, suggesting that the errors in the monsoon simulations with observed SST by these models could be attributed to unrealistically high sensitivity to ENSO.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.