Assessing future rainfall projections using multiple GCMs and a multi-site stochastic downscaling model

Impact of global warming on daily rainfall is examined using atmospheric variables from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a stochastic downscaling model. Daily rainfall at eleven raingauges over Malaprabha catchment of India and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data at grid points over the catchment for a continuous time period 1971-2000 (current climate) are used to calibrate the downscaling model. The downscaled rainfall simulations obtained using GCM atmospheric variables corresponding to the IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change - Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 emission scenario for the same period are used to validate the results. Following this, future downscaled rainfall projections are constructed and examined for two 20 year time slices viz. 2055 (i.e. 2046-2065) and 2090 (i.e. 2081-2100). The model results show reasonable skill in simulating the rainfall over the study region for the current climate. The downscaled rainfall projections indicate no significant changes in the rainfall regime in this catchment in the future. More specifically, 2% decrease by 2055 and 5% decrease by 2090 in monsoon (HAS) rainfall compared to the current climate (1971-2000) under global warming conditions are noticed. Also, pre-monsoon (JFMAM) and post-monsoon (OND) rainfall is projected to increase respectively, by 2% in 2055 and 6% in 2090 and, 2% in 2055 and 12% in 2090, over the region. On annual basis slight decreases of 1% and 2% are noted for 2055 and 2090, respectively.

A study on the usefulness of Support Vector Machines for the realtime computational simulation of soft biological organs

Realistic and realtime computational simulation of soft biological organs (e.g., liver, kidney) is necessary when one tries to build a quality surgical simulator that can simulate surgical procedures involving these organs. Since the realistic simulation of these soft biological organs should account for both nonlinear material behavior and large deformation, achieving realistic simulations in realtime using continuum mechanics based numerical techniques necessitates the use of a supercomputer or a high end computer cluster which are costly. Hence there is a need to employ soft computing techniques like Support Vector Machines (SVMs) which can do function approximation, and hence could achieve physically realistic simulations in realtime by making use of just a desktop computer. Present work tries to simulate a pig liver in realtime. Liver is assumed to be homogeneous, isotropic, and hyperelastic. Hyperelastic material constants are taken from the literature. An SVM is employed to achieve realistic simulations in realtime, using just a desktop computer. The code for the SVM is obtained from [1]. The SVM is trained using the dataset generated by performing hyperelastic analyses on the liver geometry, using the commercial finite element software package ANSYS. The methodology followed in the present work closely follows the one followed in [2] except that [2] uses Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) while the present work uses SVMs to achieve realistic simulations in realtime. Results indicate the speed and accuracy that is obtained by employing the SVM for the targeted realistic and realtime simulation of the liver.

Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

Large scale features and assessment of spatial scale correspondence between TMPA and IMD rainfall datasets over Indian landmass

Daily rainfall datasets of 10 years (1998-2007) of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) version 6 and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rain gauge have been compared over the Indian landmass, both in large and small spatial scales. On the larger spatial scale, the pattern correlation between the two datasets on daily scales during individual years of the study period is ranging from 0.4 to 0.7. The correlation improved significantly (similar to 0.9) when the study was confined to specific wet and dry spells each of about 5-8 days. Wavelet analysis of intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) of the southwest monsoon rainfall show the percentage contribution of the major two modes (30-50 days and 10-20 days), to be ranging respectively between similar to 30-40% and 5-10% for the various years. Analysis of inter-annual variability shows the satellite data to be underestimating seasonal rainfall by similar to 110 mm during southwest monsoon and overestimating by similar to 150 mm during northeast monsoon season. At high spatio-temporal scales, viz., 1 degrees x1 degrees grid, TMPA data do not correspond to ground truth. We have proposed here a new analysis procedure to assess the minimum spatial scale at which the two datasets are compatible with each other. This has been done by studying the contribution to total seasonal rainfall from different rainfall rate windows (at 1 mm intervals) on different spatial scales (at daily time scale). The compatibility spatial scale is seen to be beyond 5 degrees x5 degrees average spatial scale over the Indian landmass. This will help to decide the usability of TMPA products, if averaged at appropriate spatial scales, for specific process studies, e.g., cloud scale, meso scale or synoptic scale.

Relation Between the Diffusivity, Viscosity, and Ionic Radius of LiCl in Water, Methanol, and Ethylene Glycol: A Molecular Dynamics Simulation

A molecular dynamics (MD) investigation of LiCl in water, methanol, and ethylene glycol (EG) at 298 K is reported. Several; structural and dynamical properties of the ions as well as the solvent such as self-diffusivity, radial distribution functions, void and neck distributions, velocity autocorrelation functions, and mean residence times of solvent in the first solvation shell have been computed. The results show that the reciprocal relationship between the self-diffusivity of the ions and the viscosity is valid in almost all solvents with the exception of water. From an analysis of radial distribution functions and coordination numbers the nature of hydrogen bonding within the solvent and its influence on the void and neck distribution becomes evident. It is seen that the solvent solvent interaction is important in EG while solute solvent interactions dominate in water and methanol. From Voronoi tessellation, it is seen that the voids and necks within methanol are larger as compared to those within water or EG. On the basis of the void and neck distributions obtained from MD simulations and literature experimental data of limiting ion conductivity for various ions of different sizes we show that there is a relation between the void and neck radius on e one hand and dependence of conductivity on the ionic radius on the other. It is shown that the presence of large diameter voids and necks in methanol is responsible for maximum in limiting ion conductivity (lambda(0)) of TMA(+), while in water in EG, the maximum is seen for Rb+. In the case of monovalent anions, maximum in lambda(0) as a function ionic radius is seen for Br- in water EG but for the larger ClO4- ion in methanol. The relation between the void and neck distribution and the variation in lambda(0) with ionic radius arises via the Levitation effect which is discussed. These studies show the importance of the solvent structure and the associated void structure.

Wet and dry spell characteristics of global tropical rainfall

In this study, we analyze satellite-based daily rainfall observations to compare and contrast the wet and dry spell characteristics of tropical rainfall. Defining a wet (dry) spell as the number of consecutive rainy (nonrainy) days, we find that the distributions of wet spells appear to exhibit universality in the following sense. While both ocean and land regions with high seasonal rainfall accumulation (humid regions; e. g., India, Amazon, Pacific Ocean) show a predominance of 2-4 day wet spells, those regions with low seasonal rainfall accumulation (arid regions; e. g., South Atlantic, South Australia) exhibit a wet spell duration distribution that is essentially exponential in nature, with a peak at 1 day. The behavior that we observed for wet spells is reversed for the dry spell characteristics. In other words, the main contribution to the dry part of the season, in terms of the number of nonrainy days, appears to come from 3-4 day dry spells in the arid regions, as opposed to 1 day dry spells in the humid regions. The total rainfall accumulated in each wet spell has also been analyzed, and we find that the major contribution to seasonal rainfall for arid regions comes from 1-5 day wet spells; however, for humid regions, this contribution comes from wet spells of duration as long as 30 days. We also explore the role of chance as well as the influence of organized convection in determining some of the observed features.

MODELING AND SIMULATION OF HYDRODYNAMIC INTERACTION OF DNA IN A MICRO-FLUIDIC CHANNEL

The motion of DNA (in the bulk solution) and the non-Newtonian effective fluid behavior are considered separately and self-consistently with the fluid motion satisfying the no-slip boundary condition on the surface of the confining geometry in the presence of channel pressure gradients. A different approach has been developed to model DNA in the micro-channel. In this study the DNA is assumed as an elastic chain with its characteristic Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio and density. The force which results from the fluid dynamic pressure, viscous forces and electromotive forces is applied to the elastic chain in a coupled manner. The velocity fields in the micro-channel are influenced by the transport properties. Simulations are carried out for the DNAs attached to the micro-fluidic wall. Numerical solutions based on a coupled multiphysics finite element scheme are presented. The modeling scheme is derived based on mass conservation including biomolecular mass, momentum balance including stress due to Coulomb force field and DNA-fluid interaction, and charge transport associated to DNA and other ionic complexes in the fluid. Variation in the velocity field for the non-Newtonian flow and the deformation of the DNA strand which results from the fluid-structure interaction are first studied considering a single DNA strand. Motion of the effective center of mass is analyzed considering various straight and coil geometries. Effects of DNA statistical parameters (geometry and spatial distribution of DNAs along the channel) on the effective flow behavior are analyzed. In particular, the dynamics of different DNA physical properties such as radius of gyration, end-to-end length etc. which are obtained from various different models (Kratky-Porod, Gaussian bead-spring etc.) are correlated to the nature of interaction and physical properties under the same background fluid environment.

Layerwise decomposition of water dynamics in reverse micelles: A simulation study of two-dimensional infrared spectrum

We present computer simulation study of two-dimensional infrared spectroscopy (2D-IR) of water confined in reverse micelles (RMs) of various sizes. The present study is motivated by the need to understand the altered dynamics of confined water by performing layerwise decomposition of water, with an aim to quantify the relative contributions of different layers water molecules to the calculated 2D-IR spectrum. The 0-1 transition spectra clearly show substantial elongation, due to in-homogeneous broadening and incomplete spectral diffusion, along the diagonal in the surface water layer of different sized RMs. Fitting of the frequency fluctuation correlation functions reveal that the motion of the surface water molecules is sub-diffusive and indicate the constrained nature of their dynamics. This is further supported by two peak nature of the angular analogue of van Hove correlation function. With increasing system size, the water molecules become more diffusive in nature and spectral diffusion almost completes in the central layer of the larger size RMs. Comparisons between experiments and simulations establish the correspondence between the spectral decomposition available in experiments with the spatial decomposition available in simulations. Simulations also allow a quantitative exploration of the relative role of water, sodium ions, and sulfonate head groups in vibrational dephasing. Interestingly, the negative cross correlation between force on oxygen and hydrogen of O-H bond in bulk water significantly decreases in the surface layer of each RM. This negative cross correlation gradually increases in the central water pool with increasing RMs size and this is found to be partly responsible for the faster relaxation rate of water in the central pool. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC.

A study of the speed and the accuracy of the Boundary Element Method as applied to the computational simulation of biological organs

In this work, first a Fortran code is developed for three dimensional linear elastostatics using constant boundary elements; the code is based on a MATLAB code developed by the author earlier. Next, the code is parallelized using BLACS, MPI, and ScaLAPACK. Later, the parallelized code is used to demonstrate the usefulness of the Boundary Element Method (BEM) as applied to the realtime computational simulation of biological organs, while focusing on the speed and accuracy offered by BEM. A computer cluster is used in this part of the work. The commercial software package ANSYS is used to obtain the `exact' solution against which the solution from BEM is compared; analytical solutions, wherever available, are also used to establish the accuracy of BEM. A pig liver is the biological organ considered. Next, instead of the computer cluster, a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is used as the parallel hardware. Results indicate that BEM is an interesting choice for the simulation of biological organs. Although the use of BEM for the simulation of biological organs is not new, the results presented in the present study are not found elsewhere in the literature. Also, a serial MATLAB code, and both serial and parallel versions of a Fortran code, which can solve three dimensional (3D) linear elastostatic problems using constant boundary elements, are provided as supplementary files that can be freely downloaded.

Seasonal variability of rainfall recorded in growth bands of the Giant African Land Snail Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich) from India

Seasonal rainfall patterns in Bangalore, India, have been reconstructed using stable isotopic ratios in the growth bands of Giant African Land Snail shells. The present study was conducted at Bangalore, India which receives rain during the summer months. The oxygen isotopic record in the rainwater samples collected during different months covering the period of the summer monsoon of the year 2008 is compared with the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands deposited simultaneously. The chronology of the shell growth band is independently established assuming the growth rate observed in a chamber experiment maintaining similar relative humidity and temperature conditions. A consistent pattern observed in the isotopic ratio in the gastropod growth bands and rainwater is demonstrated and provides a novel approach for precipitation reconstruction at seasonal and weekly time scales. This approach of using isotopic ratios in the gastropod growth bands for rainfall can serve as a substitute for filling gaps in rainfall data and for cases where no rain records are available. In addition, they can be used to determine the frequencies and magnitudes of dry spells from the past records. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo simulation of light transport in tissue for optimizing light delivery in photoacoustic imaging of the sentinel lymph node

Noninvasive or minimally invasive identification of sentinel lymph node (SLN) is essential to reduce the surgical effects of SLN biopsy. Photoacoustic (PA) imaging of SLN in animal models has shown its promise for clinical use in the future. Here, we present a Monte Carlo simulation for light transport in the SLN for various light delivery configurations with a clinical ultrasound probe. Our simulation assumes a realistic tissue layer model and also can handle the transmission/reflectance at SLN-tissue boundary due to the mismatch of refractive index. Various light incidence angles show that for deeply situated SLNs the maximum absorption of light in the SLN is for normal incidence. We also show that if a part of the diffused reflected photons is reflected back into the skin using a reflector, the absorption of light in the SLN can be increased significantly to enhance the PA signal. (C) 2013 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE)

System-level SoC near-field (NF) emissions: Simulation to measurement correlation

As System-on-Chip (SoC) designs migrate to 28nm process node and beyond, the electromagnetic (EM) co-interactions of the Chip-Package-Printed Circuit Board (PCB) becomes critical and require accurate and efficient characterization and verification. In this paper a fast, scalable, and parallelized boundary element based integral EM solutions to Maxwell equations is presented. The accuracy of the full-wave formulation, for complete EM characterization, has been validated on both canonical structures and real-world 3-D system (viz. Chip + Package + PCB). Good correlation between numerical simulation and measurement has been achieved. A few examples of the applicability of the formulation to high speed digital and analog serial interfaces on a 45nm SoC are also presented.

A study of the speed and the accuracy of the Boundary Element Method as applied to the computational simulation of biological organs

In this work, possibility of simulating biological organs in realtime using the Boundary Element Method (BEM) is investigated, with specific reference to the speed and the accuracy offered by BEM. First, a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is used to speed up the BEM computations to achieve the realtime performance. Next, instead of the GPU, a computer cluster is used. A pig liver is the biological organ considered. Results indicate that BEM is an interesting choice for the simulation of biological organs. Although the use of BEM for the simulation of biological organs is not new, the results presented in the present study are not found elsewhere in the literature.

Computationally Efficient Model for Simulation of Boost Converter

This paper presents a computationally efficient model for a dc-dc boost converter, which is valid for continuous and discontinuous conduction modes; the model also incorporates significant non-idealities of the converter. Simulation of the dc-dc boost converter using an average model provides practically all the details, which are available from the simulation using the switching (instantaneous) model, except for the quantum of ripple in currents and voltages. A harmonic model of the converter can be used to evaluate the ripple quantities. This paper proposes a combined (average-cum-harmonic) model of the boost converter. The accuracy of the combined model is validated through extensive simulations and experiments. A quantitative comparison of the computation times of the average, combined and switching models are presented. The combined model is shown to be more computationally efficient than the switching model for simulation of transient and steady-state responses of the converter under various conditions.