Evaluation of TRMM PR Sampling Error Over a Subtropical Basin Using Bootstrap Technique

Quantitative use of satellite-derived rainfall products for various scientific applications often requires them to be accompanied with an error estimate. Rainfall estimates inferred from low earth orbiting satellites like the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) will be subjected to sampling errors of nonnegligible proportions owing to the narrow swath of satellite sensors coupled with a lack of continuous coverage due to infrequent satellite visits. The authors investigate sampling uncertainty of seasonal rainfall estimates from the active sensor of TRMM, namely, Precipitation Radar (PR), based on 11 years of PR 2A25 data product over the Indian subcontinent. In this paper, a statistical bootstrap technique is investigated to estimate the relative sampling errors using the PR data themselves. Results verify power law scaling characteristics of relative sampling errors with respect to space-time scale of measurement. Sampling uncertainty estimates for mean seasonal rainfall were found to exhibit seasonal variations. To give a practical example of the implications of the bootstrap technique, PR relative sampling errors over a subtropical river basin of Mahanadi, India, are examined. Results reveal that the bootstrap technique incurs relative sampling errors < 33% (for the 2 degrees grid), < 36% (for the 1 degrees grid), < 45% (for the 0.5 degrees grid), and < 57% (for the 0.25 degrees grid). With respect to rainfall type, overall sampling uncertainty was found to be dominated by sampling uncertainty due to stratiform rainfall over the basin. The study compares resulting error estimates to those obtained from latin hypercube sampling. Based on this study, the authors conclude that the bootstrap approach can be successfully used for ascertaining relative sampling errors offered by TRMM-like satellites over gauged or ungauged basins lacking in situ validation data. This technique has wider implications for decision making before incorporating microwave orbital data products in basin-scale hydrologic modeling.

Isotropic finite volume discretization

Finite volume methods traditionally employ dimension by dimension extension of the one-dimensional reconstruction and averaging procedures to achieve spatial discretization of the governing partial differential equations on a structured Cartesian mesh in multiple dimensions. This simple approach based on tensor product stencils introduces an undesirable grid orientation dependence in the computed solution. The resulting anisotropic errors lead to a disparity in the calculations that is most prominent between directions parallel and diagonal to the grid lines. In this work we develop isotropic finite volume discretization schemes which minimize such grid orientation effects in multidimensional calculations by eliminating the directional bias in the lowest order term in the truncation error. Explicit isotropic expressions that relate the cell face averaged line and surface integrals of a function and its derivatives to the given cell area and volume averages are derived in two and three dimensions, respectively. It is found that a family of isotropic approximations with a free parameter can be derived by combining isotropic schemes based on next-nearest and next-next-nearest neighbors in three dimensions. Use of these isotropic expressions alone in a standard finite volume framework, however, is found to be insufficient in enforcing rotational invariance when the flux vector is nonlinear and/or spatially non-uniform. The rotationally invariant terms which lead to a loss of isotropy in such cases are explicitly identified and recast in a differential form. Various forms of flux correction terms which allow for a full recovery of rotational invariance in the lowest order truncation error terms, while preserving the formal order of accuracy and discrete conservation of the original finite volume method, are developed. Numerical tests in two and three dimensions attest the superior directional attributes of the proposed isotropic finite volume method. Prominent anisotropic errors, such as spurious asymmetric distortions on a circular reaction-diffusion wave that feature in the conventional finite volume implementation are effectively suppressed through isotropic finite volume discretization. Furthermore, for a given spatial resolution, a striking improvement in the prediction of kinetic energy decay rate corresponding to a general two-dimensional incompressible flow field is observed with the use of an isotropic finite volume method instead of the conventional discretization. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

AN OPTIMUM SHRINKAGE ESTIMATOR BASED ON MINIMUM-PROBABILITY-OF-ERROR CRITERION AND APPLICATION TO SIGNAL DENOISING

We address the problem of designing an optimal pointwise shrinkage estimator in the transform domain, based on the minimum probability of error (MPE) criterion. We assume an additive model for the noise corrupting the clean signal. The proposed formulation is general in the sense that it can handle various noise distributions. We consider various noise distributions (Gaussian, Student's-t, and Laplacian) and compare the denoising performance of the estimator obtained with the mean-squared error (MSE)-based estimators. The MSE optimization is carried out using an unbiased estimator of the MSE, namely Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE). Experimental results show that the MPE estimator outperforms the SURE estimator in terms of SNR of the denoised output, for low (0 -10 dB) and medium values (10 - 20 dB) of the input SNR.

Optimal error estimate using mesh equidistribution technique for singularly perturbed system of reaction-diffusion boundary-value problems

In this article, we study the problem of determining an appropriate grading of meshes for a system of coupled singularly perturbed reaction-diffusion problems having diffusion parameters with different magnitudes. The central difference scheme is used to discretize the problem on adaptively generated mesh where the mesh equation is derived using an equidistribution principle. An a priori monitor function is obtained from the error estimate. A suitable a posteriori analogue of this monitor function is also derived for the mesh construction which will lead to an optimal second-order parameter uniform convergence. We present the results of numerical experiments for linear and semilinear reaction-diffusion systems to support the effectiveness of our preferred monitor function obtained from theoretical analysis. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wind speed prediction using spatio-temporal covariance

High wind poses a number of hazards in different areas such as structural safety, aviation, and wind energy-where low wind speed is also a concern, pollutant transport, to name a few. Therefore, usage of a good prediction tool for wind speed is necessary in these areas. Like many other natural processes, behavior of wind is also associated with considerable uncertainties stemming from different sources. Therefore, to develop a reliable prediction tool for wind speed, these uncertainties should be taken into account. In this work, we propose a probabilistic framework for prediction of wind speed from measured spatio-temporal data. The framework is based on decompositions of spatio-temporal covariance and simulation using these decompositions. A novel simulation method based on a tensor decomposition is used here in this context. The proposed framework is composed of a set of four modules, and the modules have flexibility to accommodate further modifications. This framework is applied on measured data on wind speed in Ireland. Both short-and long-term predictions are addressed.

Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on ``abstract metrics'' that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging ``big data'' domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

A Matroidal Framework for Network-Error Correcting Codes

Matroidal networks were introduced by Dougherty et al. and have been well studied in the recent past. It was shown that a network has a scalar linear network coding solution if and only if it is matroidal associated with a representable matroid. A particularly interesting feature of this development is the ability to construct (scalar and vector) linearly solvable networks using certain classes of matroids. Furthermore, it was shown through the connection between network coding and matroid theory that linear network coding is not always sufficient for general network coding scenarios. The current work attempts to establish a connection between matroid theory and network-error correcting and detecting codes. In a similar vein to the theory connecting matroids and network coding, we abstract the essential aspects of linear network-error detecting codes to arrive at the definition of a matroidal error detecting network (and similarly, a matroidal error correcting network abstracting from network-error correcting codes). An acyclic network (with arbitrary sink demands) is then shown to possess a scalar linear error detecting (correcting) network code if and only if it is a matroidal error detecting (correcting) network associated with a representable matroid. Therefore, constructing such network-error correcting and detecting codes implies the construction of certain representable matroids that satisfy some special conditions, and vice versa. We then present algorithms that enable the construction of matroidal error detecting and correcting networks with a specified capability of network-error correction. Using these construction algorithms, a large class of hitherto unknown scalar linearly solvable networks with multisource, multicast, and multiple-unicast network-error correcting codes is made available for theoretical use and practical implementation, with parameters, such as number of information symbols, number of sinks, number of coding nodes, error correcting capability, and so on, being arbitrary but for computing power (for the execution of the algorithms). The complexity of the construction of these networks is shown to be comparable with the complexity of existing algorithms that design multicast scalar linear network-error correcting codes. Finally, we also show that linear network coding is not sufficient for the general network-error correction (detection) problem with arbitrary demands. In particular, for the same number of network errors, we show a network for which there is a nonlinear network-error detecting code satisfying the demands at the sinks, whereas there are no linear network-error detecting codes that do the same.

Layered Exact-Repair Regenerating Codes via Embedded Error Correction and Block Designs

A new class of exact-repair regenerating codes is constructed by stitching together shorter erasure correction codes, where the stitching pattern can be viewed as block designs. The proposed codes have the help-by-transfer property where the helper nodes simply transfer part of the stored data directly, without performing any computation. This embedded error correction structure makes the decoding process straightforward, and in some cases the complexity is very low. We show that this construction is able to achieve performance better than space-sharing between the minimum storage regenerating codes and the minimum repair-bandwidth regenerating codes, and it is the first class of codes to achieve this performance. In fact, it is shown that the proposed construction can achieve a nontrivial point on the optimal functional-repair tradeoff, and it is asymptotically optimal at high rate, i.e., it asymptotically approaches the minimum storage and the minimum repair-bandwidth simultaneously.

Crystal Structure and Prediction

The notion of structure is central to the subject of chemistry. This review traces the development of the idea of crystal structure since the time when a crystal structure could be determined from a three-dimensional diffraction pattern and assesses the feasibility of computationally predicting an unknown crystal structure of a given molecule. Crystal structure prediction is of considerable fundamental and applied importance, and its successful execution is by no means a solved problem. The ease of crystal structure determination today has resulted in the availability of large numbers of crystal structures of higher-energy polymorphs and pseudopolymorphs. These structural libraries lead to the concept of a crystal structure landscape. A crystal structure of a compound may accordingly be taken as a data point in such a landscape.

Prediction of Land Surface Temperature under Cloudy Conditions using Microwave Remote Sensing and ANN

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important variable in climate, hydrologic, ecological, biophysical and biochemical studies (Mildrexler et al., 2011). The most effective way to obtain LST measurements is through satellites. Presently, LST from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor is applied in various fields due to its high spatial and temporal availability over the globe, but quite difficult to provide observations in cloudy conditions. This study evolves of prediction of LST under clear and cloudy conditions using microwave vegetation indices (MVIs), elevation, latitude, longitude and Julian day as inputs employing an artificial neural network (ANN) model. MVIs can be obtained even under cloudy condition, since microwave radiation has an ability to penetrate through clouds. In this study LST and MVIs data of the year 2010 for the Cauvery basin on a daily basis were obtained from MODIS and advanced microwave scanning radiometer (AMSR-E) sensors of aqua satellite respectively. Separate ANN models were trained and tested for the grid cells for which both LST and MVI were available. The performance of the models was evaluated based on standard evaluation measures. The best performing model was used to predict LST where MVIs were available. Results revealed that predictions of LST using ANN are in good agreement with the observed values. The ANN approach presented in this study promises to be useful for predicting LST using satellite observations even in cloudy conditions. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Queue Waiting Times for Metascheduling on Parallel Batch Systems

Prediction of queue waiting times of jobs submitted to production parallel batch systems is important to provide overall estimates to users and can also help meta-schedulers make scheduling decisions. In this work, we have developed a framework for predicting ranges of queue waiting times for jobs by employing multi-class classification of similar jobs in history. Our hierarchical prediction strategy first predicts the point wait time of a job using dynamic k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) method. It then performs a multi-class classification using Support Vector Machines (SVMs) among all the classes of the jobs. The probabilities given by the SVM for the class predicted using k-NN and its neighboring classes are used to provide a set of ranges of predicted wait times with probabilities. We have used these predictions and probabilities in a meta-scheduling strategy that distributes jobs to different queues/sites in a multi-queue/grid environment for minimizing wait times of the jobs. Experiments with different production supercomputer job traces show that our prediction strategies can give correct predictions for about 77-87% of the jobs, and also result in about 12% improved accuracy when compared to the next best existing method. Experiments with our meta-scheduling strategy using different production and synthetic job traces for various system sizes, partitioning schemes and different workloads, show that the meta-scheduling strategy gives much improved performance when compared to existing scheduling policies by reducing the overall average queue waiting times of the jobs by about 47%.

A Reliable Residual Based A Posteriori Error Estimator for a Quadratic Finite Element Method for the Elliptic Obstacle Problem

A residual based a posteriori error estimator is derived for a quadratic finite element method (FEM) for the elliptic obstacle problem. The error estimator involves various residuals consisting of the data of the problem, discrete solution and a Lagrange multiplier related to the obstacle constraint. The choice of the discrete Lagrange multiplier yields an error estimator that is comparable with the error estimator in the case of linear FEM. Further, an a priori error estimate is derived to show that the discrete Lagrange multiplier converges at the same rate as that of the discrete solution of the obstacle problem. The numerical experiments of adaptive FEM show optimal order convergence. This demonstrates that the quadratic FEM for obstacle problem exhibits optimal performance.

A Remark on the A Posteriori Error Analysis of Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for the Obstacle Problem

We revisit the a posteriori error analysis of discontinuous Galerkin methods for the obstacle problem derived in 25]. Under a mild assumption on the trace of obstacle, we derive a reliable a posteriori error estimator which does not involve min/max functions. A key in this approach is an auxiliary problem with discrete obstacle. Applications to various discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods are presented. Numerical experiments show that the new estimator obtained in this article performs better.