Two-dimensional moist stratified turbulence and the emergence of vertically sheared horizontal flows

Moist stratified turbulence is studied in a two-dimensional Boussinesq system influenced by condensation and evaporation. The problem is set in a periodic domain and employs simple evaporation and condensation schemes, wherein both the processes push parcels towards saturation. Numerical simulations demonstrate the emergence of a moist turbulent state consisting of ordered structures with a clear power-law type spectral scaling from initially spatially uncorrelated conditions. An asymptotic analysis in the limit of rapid condensation and strong stratification shows that, for initial conditions with enough water substance to saturate the domain, the equations support a straightforward state of moist balance characterized by a hydrostatic, saturated, vertically sheared horizontal flow (VSHF). For such initial conditions, by means of long time numerical simulations, the emergence of moist balance is verified. Specifically, starting from uncorrelated data, subsequent to the development of a moist turbulent state, the system experiences a rather abrupt transition to a regime which is close to saturation and dominated by a strong VSHF. On the other hand, initial conditions which do not have enough water substance to saturate the domain, do not attain moist balance. Rather, the system is observed to remain in a turbulent state and oscillates about moist balance. Even though balance is not achieved with these general initial conditions, the time scale of oscillation about moist balance is much larger than the imposed time scale of condensation and evaporation, thus indicating a distinct dominant slow component in the moist stratified two-dimensional turbulent system. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3694805]

Multi-decadal variation of the net downward shortwave radiation over south Asia: The solar dimming effect

The solar radiation flux at the earth's surface has gone through decadal changes of decreasing and increasing trends over the globe. These phenomena known as dimming and brightening, respectively, have attracted the scientific interest in relation to the changes in radiative balance and climate. Despite the interest in the solar dimming/brightening phenomenon in various parts of the world, south Asia has not attracted great scientific attention so far. The present work uses the net downward shortwave radiation (NDSWR) values derived from satellites (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA 2D) in order to examine the multi-decadal variations in the incoming solar radiation over south Asia for the period of 1979-2004. From the analysis it is seen that solar dimming continues over south Asia with a trend of -0.54 Wm(-2) yr(-1). Assuming clear skies an average decrease of -0.05 Wm(-2)yr(-1) in NDSWR was observed, which is attributed to increased aerosol emissions over the region. There is evidence that the increase in cloud optical depth plays the major role for the solar dimming over the area. The cloud optical depth (MERRA retrievals) has increased by 10.7% during the study period, with the largest increase to be detected for the high-level (atmospheric pressure P < 400 hPa) clouds (31.2%). Nevertheless, the decrease in solar radiation and the role of aerosols and clouds exhibit large monthly and seasonal variations directly affected by the local monsoon system, the anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions. All these aspects are examined in detail aiming at shedding light into the solar dimming phenomenon over a densely populated area. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monsoon Regimes and Processes in CCSM4. Part I: The Asian-Australian Monsoon

The simulation characteristics of the Asian-Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4)] to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean-atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian-Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Nino in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon-ENSO connection.

Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against similar to 0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); similar to 60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and similar to 40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our similar to 100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Characteristics of Arabian Sea mini warm pool and Indian summer monsoon

Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP) is a part of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool and formed in the eastern Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the summer monsoon season. This warm pool attained its maximum intensity during the pre-monsoon season and dissipated with the commencement of summer monsoon. The main focus of the present work was on the triggering of the dissipation of this warm pool and its relation to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. This phenomenon was studied utilizing NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric and Research) re-analysis data, TRMM Micro wave Imager (TMI) and observational data. To define the ASMWP, sea surface temperature exceeding 30.25A degrees C was taken as the criteria. The warm pool attained its maximum dimension and intensity nearly 2 weeks prior to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. Interestingly, the warm pool started its dissipation immediately after attaining its maximum core temperature. This information can be included in the present numerical models to enhance the prediction capability. It was also found that the extent and intensity of the ASMWP varied depending on the type of monsoon i.e., excess, normal, and deficient monsoon. Maximum core temperature and wide coverage of the warm pool observed during the excess monsoon years compared to normal and deficient monsoon years. The study also revealed a strong relationship between the salinity in the eastern Arabian Sea and the nature of the monsoon.

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India

A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June-September), with a peak during July-August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse rain-gauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system.

Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly. Copyright (C) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

How good are the simulations of tropical SST-rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)-rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST-rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST-rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

Large improvements in application throughput of long-running multi-component applications using batch grids

Computational grids with multiple batch systems (batch grids) can be powerful infrastructures for executing long-running multi-component parallel applications. In this paper, we evaluate the potential improvements in throughput of long-running multi-component applications when the different components of the applications are executed on multiple batch systems of batch grids. We compare the multiple batch executions with executions of the components on a single batch system without increasing the number of processors used for executions. We perform our analysis with a foremost long-running multi-component application for climate modeling, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). We have built a robust simulator that models the characteristics of both the multi-component application and the batch systems. By conducting large number of simulations with different workload characteristics and queuing policies of the systems, processor allocations to components of the application, distributions of the components to the batch systems and inter-cluster bandwidths, we show that multiple batch executions lead to 55% average increase in throughput over single batch executions for long-running CCSM. We also conducted real experiments with a practical middleware infrastructure and showed that multi-site executions lead to effective utilization of batch systems for executions of CCSM and give higher simulation throughput than single-site executions. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Albedo enhancement over land to counteract global warming: impacts on hydrological cycle

A recent modelling study has shown that precipitation and runoff over land would increase when the reflectivity of marine clouds is increased to counter global warming. This implies that large scale albedo enhancement over land could lead to a decrease in runoff over land. In this study, we perform simulations using NCAR CAM3.1 that have implications for Solar Radiation Management geoengineering schemes that increase the albedo over land. We find that an increase in reflectivity over land that mitigates the global mean warming from a doubling of CO2 leads to a large residual warming in the southern hemisphere and cooling in the northern hemisphere since most of the land is located in northern hemisphere. Precipitation and runoff over land decrease by 13.4 and 22.3%, respectively, because of a large residual sinking motion over land triggered by albedo enhancement over land. Soil water content also declines when albedo over land is enhanced. The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over land needed (-8.2 W m(-2)) to counter global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 (3.3 W m(-2)) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (-4.2 W m(-2)). Our results imply that albedo enhancement over oceans produce climates closer to the unperturbed climate state than do albedo changes on land when the consequences on land hydrology are considered. Our study also has important implications for any intentional or unintentional large scale changes in land surface albedo such as deforestation/afforestation/reforestation, air pollution, and desert and urban albedo modification.

Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.

Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed.

Cumulus clouds and convective boundary layers: a tropical perspective on two turbulent shear flows

This paper is a review prepared for the second Marseille Colloquium on the mechanics of turbulence, held in 2011, 50 years after the first. The review covers recent developments in our understanding of the large-scale dynamics of cumulus cloud flows and of the atmospheric boundary layer in the low-wind convective regime that is often encountered in the tropics. It has recently been shown that a variety of cumulus cloud forms and life cycles can be experimentally realized in the laboratory, with the transient diabatic plume taken as the flow model for a cumulus cloud. The plume is subjected to diabatic heating scaled to be dynamically similar to heat release from phase changes in clouds. The experiments are complemented by exact numerical solutions of the Navier-Stokes-Boussinesq equations for plumes with scaled off-source heating. The results show that the Taylor entrainment coefficient first increases with heating, reaches a positive maximum and then drops rapidly to zero or even negative values. This reduction in entrainment is a consequence of structural changes in the flow, smoothing out the convoluted boundaries in the non-diabatic plume, including the tongues engulfing the ambient flow. This is accompanied by a greater degree of mixedness in the core flow because of lower dilution by the ambient fluid. The cloud forms generated depend strongly on the history of the diabatic heating profile in the vertical direction. The striking effects of heating on the flow are attributable to the operation of the baroclinic torque due to the temperature field. The mean baroclinic torque is shown to peak around a quasi-cylindrical sheet situated midway between the axis of the flow and the edges. This torque is shear-enhancing and folds down the engulfment tongues. The increase in mixedness can be traced to an explosive growth in the enstrophy, triggered by a strong fluctuating baroclinic torque that acts as a source, especially at the higher wave numbers, thus enhancing the mixedness. In convective boundary layers field measurements show that, under conditions prevailing in the tropics, the eddy fluxes of momentum and energy do not follow the Monin-Obukhov similarity. Instead, the eddy momentum flux is found to be linear in the wind speed at low winds; and the eddy heat flux is, to a first approximation, governed by free convection laws, with wind acting as a small perturbation on a regime of free convection. A new boundary layer code, based on heat flux scaling rather than wall-stress scaling, shows promising improvements in predictive skills of a general circulation model.

Signatures of Indian ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal

We investigate the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean during 1957-2008. Using tide-gauge and altimeter data, we show that IOD and ENSO leave characteristic signatures in the sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the Bay of Bengal. During a positive IOD event, negative SLAs are observed during April-December, with the SLAs decreasing continuously to a peak during September-November. During El Nino, negative SLAs are observed twice (April-December and November-July), with a relaxation between the two peaks. SLA signatures during negative IOD and La Nina events are much weaker. We use a linear, continuously stratified model of the Indian Ocean to simulate their sea level patterns of IOD and ENSO events. We then separate solutions into parts that correspond to specific processes: coastal alongshore winds, remote forcing from the equator via reflected Rossby waves, and direct forcing by interior winds within the bay. During pure IOD events, the SLAs are forced both from the equator and by direct wind forcing. During ENSO events, they are primarily equatorially forced, with only a minor contribution from direct wind forcing. Using a lead/lag covariance analysis between the Nino-3.4 SST index and Indian Ocean wind stress, we derive a composite wind field for a typical El Nino event: the resulting solution has two negative SLA peaks. The IOD and ENSO signatures are not evident off the west coast of India.