Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on ``abstract metrics'' that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging ``big data'' domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

A transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy study of annealing induced gamma-phase nucleation, clustering, and interfacial dynamics in reactively sputtered amorphous alumina thin films

Pure alpha-Al2O3 exhibits a very high degree of thermodynamical stability among all metal oxides and forms an inert oxide scale in a range of structural alloys at high temperatures. We report that amorphous Al2O3 thin films sputter deposited over crystalline Si instead show a surprisingly active interface. On annealing, crystallization begins with nuclei of a phase closely resembling gamma-Alumina forming almost randomly in an amorphous matrix, and with increasing frequency near the substrate/film interface. This nucleation is marked by the signature appearance of sharp (400) and (440) reflections and the formation of a diffuse diffraction halo with an outer maximal radius of approximate to 0.23 nm enveloping the direct beam. The microstructure then evolves by a cluster-coalescence growth mechanism suggestive of swift nucleation and sluggish diffusional kinetics, while locally the Al ions redistribute slowly from chemisorbed and tetrahedral sites to higher anion coordinated sites. Chemical state plots constructed from XPS data and simple calculations of the diffraction patterns from hypothetically distorted lattices suggest that the true origins of the diffuse diffraction halo are probably related to a complex change in the electronic structure spurred by the a-gamma transformation rather than pure structural disorder. Concurrent to crystallization within the film, a substantially thick interfacial reaction zone also builds up at the film/substrate interface with the excess Al acting as a cationic source. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

Secure Transmission in Cooperative Networks with Weak Eavesdroppers

In this letter, we propose a scheme to improve the secrecy rate of cooperative networks using Analog Network Coding (ANC). ANC mixes the signals in the air; the desired signal is then separated out, from the mixed signals, at the legitimate receiver using techniques like self interference subtraction and signal nulling, thereby achieving better secrecy rates. Assuming global channel state information, memoryless adversaries and the decode-and-forward strategy, we seek to maximize the average secrecy rate between the source and the destination, subject to an overall power budget. Then, exploiting the structure of the optimization problem, we compute its optimal solution. Finally, we use numerical evaluations to compare our scheme with the conventional approaches.

Reliability Assessment of a Storm Water Drain Network

Most of the cities in India are undergoing rapid development in recent decades, and many rural localities are undergoing transformation to urban hotspots. These developments have associated land use/land cover (LULC) change that effects runoff response from catchments, which is often evident in the form of increase in runoff peaks, volume and velocity in drain network. Often most of the existing storm water drains are in dilapidated stage owing to improper maintenance or inadequate design. The drains are conventionally designed using procedures that are based on some anticipated future conditions. Further, values of parameters/variables associated with design of the network are traditionally considered to be deterministic. However, in reality, the parameters/variables have uncertainty due to natural and/or inherent randomness. There is a need to consider the uncertainties for designing a storm water drain network that can effectively convey the discharge. The present study evaluates performance of an existing storm water drain network in Bangalore, India, through reliability analysis by Advance First Order Second Moment (AFOSM) method. In the reliability analysis, parameters that are considered to be random variables are roughness coefficient, slope and conduit dimensions. Performance of the existing network is evaluated considering three failure modes. The first failure mode occurs when runoff exceeds capacity of the storm water drain network, while the second failure mode occurs when the actual flow velocity in the storm water drain network exceeds the maximum allowable velocity for erosion control, whereas the third failure mode occurs when the minimum flow velocity is less than the minimum allowable velocity for deposition control. In the analysis, runoff generated from subcatchments of the study area and flow velocity in storm water drains are estimated using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Results from the study are presented and discussed. The reliability values are low under the three failure modes, indicating a need to redesign several of the conduits to improve their reliability. This study finds use in devising plans for expansion of the Bangalore storm water drain system. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Girsanov Transformation-Based Reliability Modeling and Testing of Actively Controlled Structures

The problem of estimation of the time-variant reliability of actively controlled structural dynamical systems under stochastic excitations is considered. Monte Carlo simulations, reinforced with Girsanov transformation-based sampling variance reduction, are used to tackle the problem. In this approach, the external excitations are biased by an additional artificial control force. The conflicting objectives of the two control forces-one designed to reduce structural responses and the other to promote limit-state violations (but to reduce sampling variance)-are noted. The control for variance reduction is fashioned after design-point oscillations based on a first-order reliability method. It is shown that for structures that are amenable to laboratory testing, the reliability can be estimated experimentally with reduced testing times by devising a procedure based on the ideas of the Girsanov transformation. Illustrative examples include studies on a building frame with a magnetorheologic damper-based isolation system subject to nonstationary random earthquake excitations. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Markov chain splitting methods in structural reliability integral estimation

Monte Carlo simulation methods involving splitting of Markov chains have been used in evaluation of multi-fold integrals in different application areas. We examine in this paper the performance of these methods in the context of evaluation of reliability integrals from the point of view of characterizing the sampling fluctuations. The methods discussed include the Au-Beck subset simulation, Holmes-Diaconis-Ross method, and generalized splitting algorithm. A few improvisations based on first order reliability method are suggested to select algorithmic parameters of the latter two methods. The bias and sampling variance of the alternative estimators are discussed. Also, an approximation to the sampling distribution of some of these estimators is obtained. Illustrative examples involving component and series system reliability analyses are presented with a view to bring out the relative merits of alternative methods. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

System reliability of randomly vibrating structures: Computational modeling and laboratory testing

The problem of determination of system reliability of randomly vibrating structures arises in many application areas of engineering. We discuss in this paper approaches based on Monte Carlo simulations and laboratory testing to tackle problems of time variant system reliability estimation. The strategy we adopt is based on the application of Girsanov's transformation to the governing stochastic differential equations which enables estimation of probability of failure with significantly reduced number of samples than what is needed in a direct simulation study. Notably, we show that the ideas from Girsanov's transformation based Monte Carlo simulations can be extended to conduct laboratory testing to assess system reliability of engineering structures with reduced number of samples and hence with reduced testing times. Illustrative examples include computational studies on a 10 degree of freedom nonlinear system model and laboratory/computational investigations on road load response of an automotive system tested on a four post Lest rig. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Generalist Predator Regulating Spread of a Wildlife Disease: Exploring Two Infection Transmission Scenarios

Ecoepidemiology is a well-developed branch of theoretical ecology, which explores interplay between the trophic interactions and the disease spread. In most ecoepidemiological models, however, the authors assume the predator to be a specialist, which consumes only a single prey species. In few existing papers, in which the predator was suggested to be a generalist, the alternative food supply was always considered to be constant. This is obviously a simplification of reality, since predators can often choose between a number of different prey. Consumption of these alternative prey can dramatically change their densities and strongly influence the model predictions. In this paper, we try to bridge the gap and explore a generic ecoepidemiological system with a generalist predator, where the densities of all prey are dynamical variables. The model consists of two prey species, one of which is subject to an infectious disease, and a predator, which consumes both prey species. We investigate two main scenarios of infection transmission mode: (i) the disease transmission rate is predator independent and (ii) the transmission rate is a function of predator density. For both scenarios we fulfil an extensive bifurcation analysis. We show that including a second dynamical prey in the system can drastically change the dynamics of the single prey case. In particular, the presence of a second prey impedes disease spread by decreasing the basic reproduction number and can result in a substantial drop of the disease prevalence. We demonstrate that with efficient consumption of the second prey species by the predator, the predator-dependent disease transmission can not destabilize interactions, as in the case with a specialist predator. Interestingly, even if the population of the second prey eventually vanishes and only one prey species finally remains, the system with two prey species may exhibit different properties to those of the single prey system.

Spatial Modulation Aided Zero-Padded Single Carrier Transmission for Dispersive Channels

In this paper, we consider spatial modulation (SM) operating in a frequency-selective single-carrier (SC) communication scenario and propose zero-padding instead of the cyclic-prefix considered in the existing literature. We show that the zero-padded single-carrier (ZP-SC) SM system offers full multipath diversity under maximum-likelihood (ML) detection, unlike the cyclic-prefix based SM system. Furthermore, we show that the order of ML detection complexity in our proposed ZP-SC SM system is independent of the frame length and depends only on the number of multipath links between the transmitter and the receiver. Thus, we show that the zero-padding applied in the SC SM system has two advantages over the cyclic prefix: 1) achieves full multipath diversity, and 2) imposes a relatively low ML detection complexity. Furthermore, we extend the partial interference cancellation receiver (PIC-R) proposed by Guo and Xia for the detection of space-time block codes (STBCs) in order to convert the ZP-SC system into a set of narrowband subsystems experiencing flat-fading. We show that full rank STBC transmissions over these subsystems achieves full transmit, receive as well as multipath diversity for the PIC-R. Furthermore, we show that the ZP-SC SM system achieves receive and multipath diversity for the PIC-R at a detection complexity order which is the same as that of the SM system in flat-fading scenario. Our simulation results demonstrate that the symbol error ratio performance of the proposed linear receiver for the ZP-SC SM system is significantly better than that of the SM in cyclic prefix based orthogonal frequency division multiplexing as well as of the SM in the cyclic-prefixed and zero-padded single carrier systems relying on zero-forcing/minimum mean-squared error equalizer based receivers.

A Physical Model for Inception and Propagation of Upward Lightning Leader from a 1200 kV AC Power Transmission Line

UHV power transmission lines have high probability of shielding failure due to their higher height, larger exposure area and high operating voltage. Lightning upward leader inception and propagation is an integral part of lightning shielding failure analysis and need to be studied in detail. In this paper a model for lightning attachment has been proposed based on the present knowledge of lightning physics. Leader inception is modeled based on the corona charge present near the conductor region and the propagation model is based on the correlation between the lightning induced voltage on the conductor and the drop along the upward leader channel. The inception model developed is compared with previous inception models and the results obtained using the present and previous models are comparable. Lightning striking distances (final jump) for various return stroke current were computed for different conductor heights. The computed striking distance values showed good correlation with the values calculated using the equation proposed by the IEEE working group for the applicable conductor heights of up to 8 m. The model is applied to a 1200 kV AC power transmission line and inception of the upward leader is analyzed for this configuration.

Performance of New Dynamic Benefit-Weighted Scheduling Scheme in DiffServ Networks

In this paper, we design a new dynamic packet scheduling scheme suitable for differentiated service (DiffServ) network. Designed dynamic benefit weighted scheduling (DBWS) uses a dynamic weighted computation scheme loosely based on weighted round robin (WRR) policy. It predicts the weight required by expedited forwarding (EF) service for the current time slot (t) based on two criteria; (i) previous weight allocated to it at time (t-1), and (ii) the average increase in the queue length of EF buffer. This prediction provides smooth bandwidth allocation to all the services by avoiding overbooking of resources for EF service and still providing guaranteed services for it. The performance is analyzed for various scenarios at high, medium and low traffic conditions. The results show that packet loss is minimized, end to end delay is minimized and jitter is reduced and therefore meet quality of service (QoS) requirement of a network.

Flexible implementation of power system corrective topology control

This paper proposes a novel decision making framework for optimal transmission switching satisfying the AC feasibility, stability and circuit breaker (CB) reliability requirements needed for practical implementation. The proposed framework can be employed as a corrective tool in day to day operation planning scenarios in response to potential contingencies. The switching options are determined using an efficient heuristic algorithm based on DC optimal power flow, and are presented in a multi-branch tree structure. Then, the AC feasibility and stability checks are conducted and the CB condition monitoring data are employed to perform a CB reliability and line availability assessment. Ultimately, the operator will be offered multiple AC feasible and stable switching options with associated benefits. The operator can use this information, other operating conditions not explicitly considered in the optimization, and his/her own experience to implement the best and most reliable switching action(s). The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated on the IEEE-118 bus test system. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

System reliability analysis of granular filter for protection against piping in dams

Granular filters are provided for the safety of water retaining structure for protection against piping failure. The phenomenon of piping triggers when the base soil to be protected starts migrating in the direction of seepage flow under the influence of seepage force. To protect base soil from migration, the voids in the filter media should be small enough but it should not also be too small to block smooth passage of seeping water. Fulfilling these two contradictory design requirements at the same time is a major concern for the successful performance of granular filter media. Since Terzaghi era, conventionally, particle size distribution (PSD) of granular filters is designed based on particle size distribution characteristics of the base soil to be protected. The design approach provides a range of D15f value in which the PSD of granular filter media should fall and there exist infinite possibilities. Further, safety against the two critical design requirements cannot be ensured. Although used successfully for many decades, the existing filter design guidelines are purely empirical in nature accompanied with experience and good engineering judgment. In the present study, analytical solutions for obtaining the factor of safety with respect to base soil particle migration and soil permeability consideration as proposed by the authors are first discussed. The solution takes into consideration the basic geotechnical properties of base soil and filter media as well as existing hydraulic conditions and provides a comprehensive solution to the granular filter design with ability to assess the stability in terms of factor of safety. Considering the fact that geotechnical properties are variable in nature, probabilistic analysis is further suggested to evaluate the system reliability of the filter media that may help in risk assessment and risk management for decision making.

Pricing and Power allocation in Femtocells using Stackelberg Game Theory

We consider a system with multiple Femtocells operating in a Macrocell. The transmissions in one Femtocell interfere with its neighboring Femtocells as well as with the Macrocell Base Station. We model Femtocells as selfish nodes and the Macrocell Base Station protects itself by pricing subchannels for each usage. We use Stackelberg game model to study this scenario and obtain equilibrium policies that satisfy certain quality of service.

Asparagine requirement in Plasmodium berghei as a target to prevent malaria transmission and liver infections

The proteins of Plasmodium, the malaria parasite, are strikingly rich in asparagine. Plasmodium depends primarily on host haemoglobin degradation for amino acids and has a rudimentary pathway for amino acid biosynthesis, but retains a gene encoding asparagine synthetase (AS). Here we show that deletion of AS in Plasmodium berghei (Pb) delays the asexual-and liver-stage development with substantial reduction in the formation of ookinetes, oocysts and sporozoites in mosquitoes. In the absence of asparagine synthesis, extracellular asparagine supports suboptimal survival of PbAS knockout (KO) parasites. Depletion of blood asparagine levels by treating PbASKO-infected mice with asparaginase completely prevents the development of liver stages, exflagellation of male gametocytes and the subsequent formation of sexual stages. In vivo supplementation of asparagine in mice restores the exflagellation of PbASKO parasites. Thus, the parasite life cycle has an absolute requirement for asparagine, which we propose could be targeted to prevent malaria transmission and liver infections.