255 resultados para predictions


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1. Habitat fragmentation, anthropogenic disturbance and the introduction of invasive species are factors thought to structure ant assemblages. To understand responses of the ant community to changes in the environment, ants are commonly categorised into functional groups, a scheme developed and based on Australian ants. 2. Behaviourally dominant and aggressive ants of the dominant dolichoderinae functional group have been suggested to structure the ant assemblages in arid and semi-arid habitats of these regions. Given the limited geographical distribution of dominant dolichoderinae, it is crucial to determine the responses of the ant community to changes in the environment in their absence. 3. This study addresses this less studied aspect by considering the associations of ants of Western Ghats, India, with habitat, anthropogenic disturbance and introduced ants. We determined how ant functional groups respond to these factors in this region, where dominant dolichoderines are naturally absent, and whether responses are consistent with predictions derived from the ant functional group scheme. 4. This study provides new information on ant assemblages in a little-studied region. As in other parts of the world, ant assemblages in Western Ghats were strongly influenced by habitat and disturbance, with different functional groups associated with different habitats and levels of disturbance. 5. No functional group showed evidence of being influenced by the abundance of introduced species. In addition, predictions of negative interactions between functional groups were not supported. Our findings suggest that abiotic factors are universal determinants of ant assemblage structure, but that competitive interactions may not be.

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Detailed three-dimensional CFD simulations involving flow and combustion chemistry are used to study the effect of swirl induced by re-entrant piston bowl geometries on pollutant emissions from a single-cylinder diesel engine. The baseline engine configuration consists of a hemispherical piston bowl and an injector with finite sac volume. The first iteration involved using a torroidal, slightly re-entrant bowl geometry, and a sac-less injector. Pollutant emission measurements indicated a reduction in emissions with this modification. Simulations on both configurations were then conducted to understand the effect of the changes. The simulation results indicate that the selected piston bowl geometry could actually be reducing the in-cylinder swirl and turbulence and the emission reduction may be entirely due to the introduction of the sac-less injector. In-cylinder air motion was then studied in a number of combustion chamber geometries, and a geometry which produced the highest in-cylinder swirl and Turbulence Kinetic Energy (TKE) around the compression top dead centre (TDC) was identified. The optimal nature of this re-entrant piston bowl geometry is confirmed by detailed combustion simulations and emission predictions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A simple but self-consistent microscopic theory for the time dependent solvation energy of both ions and dipoles is presented which includes, for the first time, the details of the self-motion of the probe on its own solvation dynamics. The theory leads to several interesting predictions. The most important of them is that, for dipolar solvation, both the rotational and the translational motions of the dipolar solute probe can significantly accelerate the rate of solvation. In addition, the rotational self-motion of the solute can also give rise to an additional mechanism of nonexponentiality in solvation time correlation functions in otherwise slow liquids. A comparison between the present theoretical predictions and the recent experimental studies of Maroncelli et al. on solvation dynamics of aniline in l-propanol seems to indicate that the said experiments have missed the initial solvent response up to about 45 ps. After mapping the experimental results on the redefined time scale, the theoretical results can explain the experimental results for solvation of aniline in 1-propanol very well. For ionic solvation, the translational motion is significant for light solutes only. For example, for Li+ in water, translational motion speeds up the solvation by about 20%. The present theory demonstrates that in dipolar solvation the partial quenching of the self-motion due to the presence of specific solute-solvent interactions (such as H-bonding) may lead to a much slower solvation than that when the self-motion is present. This point has been discussed. In addition, we present the theoretical results for solvation of aniline in propylene carbonate, Here, the solvation is predicted to be complete within 15-20 ps.

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A radio study of a carefully selected sample of 20 Seyfert galaxies that are matched in orientation-independent parameters, which are measures of intrinsic active galactic nucleus power and host galaxy properties, is presented to test the predictions of the unified scheme hypothesis. Our sample sources have core flux densities greater than 8 mJy at 5 GHz on arcsec scales due to the feasibility requirements. These simultaneous parsec-scale and kiloparsec-scale radio observations reveal (1) that Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 galaxies have an equal tendency to show compact radio structures on milliarcsecond scales, (2) the distributions of parsec-scale and kiloparsec-scale radio luminosities are similar for both Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 galaxies, (3) there is no evidence for relativistic beaming in Seyfert galaxies, (4) similar distributions of source spectral indices in spite of the fact that Seyferts show nuclear radio flux density variations, and (5) the distributions of the projected linear size for Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 galaxies are not significantly different as would be expected in the unified scheme. The latter could be mainly due to a relatively large spread in the intrinsic sizes. We also find that a starburst alone cannot power these radio sources. Finally, an analysis of the kiloparsec-scale radio properties of the CfA Seyfert galaxy sample shows results consistent with the predictions of the unified scheme.

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We calculate analytically the average number of fixed points in the Hopfield model of associative memory when a random antisymmetric part is added to the otherwise symmetric synaptic matrix. Addition of the antisymmetric part causes an exponential decrease in the total number of fixed points. If the relative strength of the antisymmetric component is small, then its presence does not cause any substantial degradation of the quality of retrieval when the memory loading level is low. We also present results of numerical simulations which provide qualitative (as well as quantitative for some aspects) confirmation of the predictions of the analytic study. Our numerical results suggest that the analytic calculation of the average number of fixed points yields the correct value for the typical number of fixed points.

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Phase relationships in the CaO-SrO-CuO system in pure oxygen at 1.01 x 10(5) Pa pressure were determined by equilibrating different compositions at 1123 K for similar to 120 h and analyzing the phases present in the quenched samples using X-ray diffraction (XRD), optical and scanning electron microscopy, and energy dispersive analysis of X-rays (EDAX). Four solid solution series were observed in the system, The CawSr1-wO monoxide solid solution with rock-salt structure was found to exhibit an asymmetric miscibility gap, The mixing properties of the monoxide system were deduced using a subregular solution model, For the (CaxSr1-x)(2)CuO3 series, a complete solid solution range with orthorhombic space group Immm was obtained. Calcium substituted for strontium up to 68 at. % in SrCuO2+delta and 51.5 at. % in Sr14Cu24O41-delta. The tie lines between the solid solutions were determined accurately, The activity-composition relations in (CaxSr1-x)(2)CuO3, CaySr1-yCuO2+delta, and (Ca2Sr1-z)(14)Cu24O41-delta solid solutions were determined from experimental tie lines. Activities in the (CaxSr1-x)(2)CuO3 and CaySr1-yCuO2+delta series were close to the predictions of the Temkin model, The behavior of the (CazSr1-(z))(14)Cu24O41-delta solid solution was more complex, with the activity of SrCu(24/14)O-(41-delta/14) exhibiting both positive and negative deviations from ideality. Gibbs energy of formation of the CaCuO2+delta metastable phase at 1123 K was deduced from an analysis of the phase diagram.

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The coherent flame model uses the strain rate to predict reaction rate per unit flame surface area and some procedure that solves for the dynamics of flame surfaces to predict species distributions. The strainrate formula for the reaction rate is obtained from the analytical solution for a flame in a laminar, plane stagnation point flow. Here, the formula's effectiveness is examined by comparisons with data from a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a round jetlike flow that undergoes transition to turbulence. Significant differences due to general flow features can be understood qualitatively: Model predictions are good in the braids between vortex rings, which are present in the near field of round jets, as the strain rate is extensional and reaction surfaces are isolated. In several other regions, the strain rate is compressive or flame surfaces are folded close together. There, the predictions are poor as the local flow no longer resembles the model flow. Quantitative comparisons showed some discrepancies. A modified, consistent application of the strain-rate solution did not show significant changes in the prediction of mean reaction rate distributions.

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We study the steady turn behaviours of some light motorcycle models on circular paths, using the commercial software package ADAMS-Motorcycle. Steering torque and steering angle are obtained for several path radii and a range of steady forward speeds. For path radii much greater than motorcycle wheelbase, and for all motorcycle parameters including tyre parameters held fixed, dimensional analysis can predict the asymptotic behaviour of steering torque and angle. In particular, steering torque is a function purely of lateral acceleration plus another such function divided by path radius. Of these, the first function is numerically determined, while the second is approximated by an analytically determined constant. Similarly, the steering angle is a function purely of lateral acceleration, plus another such function divided by path radius. Of these, the first is determined numerically while the second is determined analytically. Both predictions are verified through ADAMS simulations for various tyre and geometric parameters. In summary, steady circular motions of a given motorcycle with given tyre parameters can be approximately characterised by just one curve for steering torque and one for steering angle.

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Reduced expression of CCR5 on target CD4(+) cells lowers their susceptibility to infection by R5-tropic HIV-1, potentially preventing transmission of infection and delaying disease progression. Binding of the HIV-1 envelope (Env) protein gp120 with CCR5 is essential for the entry of R5 viruses into target cells. The threshold surface density of gp120-CCR5 complexes that enables HIV-1 entry remains poorly estimated. We constructed a mathematical model that mimics Env-mediated cell-cell fusion assays, where target CD4(+)CCR5(+) cells are exposed to effector cells expressing Env in the presence of a coreceptor antagonist and the fraction of target cells fused with effector cells is measured. Our model employs a reaction network-based approach to describe protein interactions that precede viral entry coupled with the ternary complex model to quantify the allosteric interactions of the coreceptor antagonist and predicts the fraction of target cells fused. By fitting model predictions to published data of cell-cell fusion in the presence of the CCR5 antagonist vicriviroc, we estimated the threshold surface density of gp120-CCR5 complexes for cell-cell fusion as similar to 20 mu m(-2). Model predictions with this threshold captured data from independent cell-cell fusion assays in the presence of vicriviroc and rapamycin, a drug that modulates CCR5 expression, as well as assays in the presence of maraviroc, another CCR5 antagonist, using sixteen different Env clones derived from transmitted or early founder viruses. Our estimate of the threshold surface density of gp120-CCR5 complexes necessary for HIV-1 entry thus appears robust and may have implications for optimizing treatment with coreceptor antagonists, understanding the non-pathogenic infection of non-human primates, and designing vaccines that suppress the availability of target CD4(+)CCR5(+) cells.

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Plate-shaped products resulting from martensitic, diffusional, and mixed mode transformations in zirconium-base alloys are compared. in the present study. These alloys are particularly suitable for the comparison in view of the fact that the lattice correspondence between the parent beta (bcc) and the product alpha (hcp) or gamma-hydride (fct) phases are remarkably similar for different types of transformations. Crystallographic features such as orientation relations, habit planes, and interface structures associated with these transformations have been compared:, with a view toward examining whether the transformation mechanisms have characteristic imprints on these experimental observables. Martensites exhibiting dislocated lath, internally twinned plate, and self-accommodating three-plate cluster morphologies have been encountered in Zr-2.5Nb alloy. Habit planes corresponding to all these morphologies have been found to be consistent with the predictions based on the invariant plane strain (IFS) criterion. Different morphologies have been found to reflect the manner in which the neighboring martensite variants are assembled. Lattice-invariant shears (LISs) for all these cases have been identified to be either {10 (1) over bar 1}(alpha) ((1) over bar 123)(alpha) slip or twinning on (10 (1) over bar 1)(alpha) planes. Widmanstatten alpha precipitates, forming in a step-quenching treatment, have been shown to have a lath morphology, the alpha/beta interface being decorated with a periodic array of (c + a) dislocations at a spacing of 8 to 10 nm. The line vectors of these dislocations are nearly parallel to the invariant lines. The alpha precipitates, forming in the retained beta phase on aging, exhibit an internally twinned structure with a zigzag habit plane. Average habit planes for the morphologies have been found to lie near the {103}(beta) - {113}(beta) poles, which are close to the specific variant of the {112}(beta) plane, which transforms into a prismatic plane of the type {1 (1) over bar 00}(alpha). The crystallography of the formation of the gamma-hydride phase (fct) from both the alpha and beta phases is seen to match the IFS predictions. While the beta-gamma transformation can be treated approximately as a simple shear on the basal plane involving a change in the stacking sequence, the alpha-gamma transformation call be conceptually broken into a alpha --> beta transformation following the Burgers correspondence and the simple beta-gamma shear process. The active eutectoid decomposition in the Zr-Cu system, beta --> alpha + beta', has been described in terms of cooperative growth of the alpha phase from the beta phase through the Burgers correspondence and of the partially ordered beta' (structurally similar to the equilibrium Zr2Cu phase) through an ordering process. Similarities and differences in crystallographic features of these transformations have been discussed. and the importance of the invariant line vector in deciding the geometry of the corresponding habit planes has been pointed out.

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In this talk I shall begin by summarizing the importance of the Higgs physics studies at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). I shall then give a short description of the pre-LHC constraints on the Higgs mass and the theoretical predictions for the LHC along with a discussion of the current experimental results, ending with prospects in the near future at the LHC. I have added to the writeup, recent experimental results from the LHC which have become available since the time of the workshop.

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Recently three different experimental studies on ultrafast solvation dynamics in monohydroxy straight-chain alcohols (C-1-C-4) have been carried out, with an aim to quantify the time constant (and the amplitude) of the ultrafast component. The results reported are, however, rather different from different experiments. In order to understand the reason for these differences, we have carried out a detailed theoretical study to investigate the time dependent progress of solvation of both an ionic and a dipolar solute probe in these alcohols. For methanol, the agreement between the theoretical predictions and the experimental results [Bingemann and Ernsting J. Chem. Phys. 1995, 102, 2691 and Horng et al. J: Phys, Chern, 1995, 99, 17311] is excellent. For ethanol, propanol, and butanol, we find no ultrafast component of the time constant of 70 fs or so. For these three liquids, the theoretical results are in almost complete agreement with the experimental results of Horng et al. For ethanol and propanol, the theoretical prediction for ionic solvation is not significantly different from that of dipolar solvation. Thus, the theory suggests that the experiments of Bingemann and Ernsting and those of Horng et al. studied essentially the polar solvation dynamics. The theoretical studies also suggest that the experimental investigations of Joo et al. which report a much faster and larger ultrafast component in the same series of solvents (J. Chem. Phys. 1996, 104, 6089) might have been more sensitive to the nonpolar part of solvation dynamics than the polar part. In addition, a discussion on the validity of the present theoretical approach is presented. In this theory the ultrafast component arises from almost frictionless inertial motion of the individual solvent molecules in the force field of its neighbors.

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A detailed investigation of viscosity dependence of the isomerization rate is carried out for continuous potentials by using a fully microscopic, self-consistent mode-coupling theory calculation of both the friction on the reactant and the viscosity of the medium. In this calculation we avoid approximating the short time response by the Enskog limit, which overestimates the friction at high frequencies. The isomerization rate is obtained by using the Grote-Hynes formula. The viscosity dependence of the rate has been investigated for a large number of thermodynamic state points. Since the activated barrier crossing dynamics probes the high-frequency frictional response of the liquid, the barrier crossing rate is found to be sensitive to the nature of the reactant-solvent interaction potential. When the solute-solvent interaction is modeled by a 6-12 Lennard-Jones potential, we find that over a large variation of viscosity (eta), the rate (k) can indeed be fitted very well to a fractional viscosity dependence: (k similar to eta(-alpha)), with the exponent alpha in the range 1 greater than or equal to alpha >0. The calculated values of the exponent appear to be in very good agreement with many experimental results. In particular, the theory, for the first time, explains the experimentally observed high value of alpha even at the barrier frequency, omega(b). similar or equal to 9 X 10(12) s(-1) for the isomerization reaction of 2-(2'-propenyl)anthracene in liquid eta-alkanes. The present study can also explain the reason for the very low value of vb observed in another study for the isomerization reaction of trans-stilbene in liquid n-alkanes. For omega(b) greater than or equal to 2.0 X 10(13) s(-1), we obtain alpha similar or equal to 0, which implies that the barrier crossing rate becomes identical to the transition-state theory predictions. A careful analysis of isomerization reaction dynamics involving large amplitude motion suggests that the barrier crossing dynamics itself may become irrelevant in highly viscous liquids and the rate might again be coupled directly to the viscosity. This crossover is predicted to be strongly temperature dependent and could be studied by changing the solvent viscosity by the application of pressure. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(9950514-X].

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Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

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A numerical approach for coupling the temperature and concentration fields using a micro/macro dual scale model for a solidification problem is presented. The dual scale modeling framework is implemented on a hybrid explicit-implicit solidification scheme. The advantage of this model lies in more accurate consideration of microsegregation occurring at micro-scale using a subgrid model. The model is applied to the case of solidification of a Pb-40% Sn alloy in a rectangular cavity. The present simulation results are compared with the corresponding experimental results reported in the literature, showing improvement in macrosegregation predictions. Subsequently, a comparison of macrosegregation prediction between the results of the present method with those of a parameter model is performed, showing similar trends.