Maximum magnitude estimation considering the regional rupture character

The main objective of the paper is to develop a new method to estimate the maximum magnitude (M (max)) considering the regional rupture character. The proposed method has been explained in detail and examined for both intraplate and active regions. Seismotectonic data has been collected for both the regions, and seismic study area (SSA) map was generated for radii of 150, 300, and 500 km. The regional rupture character was established by considering percentage fault rupture (PFR), which is the ratio of subsurface rupture length (RLD) to total fault length (TFL). PFR is used to arrive RLD and is further used for the estimation of maximum magnitude for each seismic source. Maximum magnitude for both the regions was estimated and compared with the existing methods for determining M (max) values. The proposed method gives similar M (max) value irrespective of SSA radius and seismicity. Further seismicity parameters such as magnitude of completeness (M (c) ), ``a'' and ``aEuro parts per thousand b `` parameters and maximum observed magnitude (M (max) (obs) ) were determined for each SSA and used to estimate M (max) by considering all the existing methods. It is observed from the study that existing deterministic and probabilistic M (max) estimation methods are sensitive to SSA radius, M (c) , a and b parameters and M (max) (obs) values. However, M (max) determined from the proposed method is a function of rupture character instead of the seismicity parameters. It was also observed that intraplate region has less PFR when compared to active seismic region.

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) Dating of Sediments from Himalaya

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating gives the age of most recent daylight exposure or heating of samples to >400 degrees C or the formation events of authigenic minerals. These correspond to the age of sedimentation and burial, ages of thermal events like contact heating by lava flows and heating during faulting and sand dyke formation, and the formation of a mineral via chemical precipitation. With the first observation of OSL in 1985, this method now occupies centre stage in Quaternary Geochronology. The use of OSL method for sediments from Himalaya began over three decades ago. The method has since provided chronology for a variety of events, such as past glaciation events, formation ages of river terraces, paleo-lacustrine deposits, landslides, floods, seismic events with substantive new insights into timing and style of geological processes. Theoretically, the dating range of method is present to a Million years, and this critically depends on two factors, viz, luminescence properties of mineral and their radiation environments. The general working range using quartz is 200ka, and using feldspars is up to Brunhes Matuyam Boundary. Extensions beyond this limit are currently being explored.

Effects of site stiffness and source to receiver distance on surface wave tests' results

By using six 4.5 Hz geophones, surface wave tests were performed on four different sites by dropping freely a 65 kg mass from a height of 5 m. The receivers were kept far away from the source to eliminate the arrival of body waves. Three different sources to nearest receiver distances (S), namely, 46 m, 56 m and 66 m, were chosen. Dispersion curves were drawn for all the sites. The maximum wavelength (lambda(max)), the maximum depth (d(max)) up to which exploration can be made and the frequency content of the signals depends on the site stiffness and the value of S. A stiffer site yields greater values of lambda(max) and d(max). For stiffer sites, an increase in S leads to an increase in lambda(max). The predominant time durations of the signals increase from stiffer to softer sites. An inverse analysis was also performed based on the stiffness matrix approach in conjunction with the maximum vertical flexibility coefficient of ground surface to establish the governing mode of excitation. For the Site 2, the results from the surface wave tests were found to compare reasonably well with that determined on the basis of cross boreholes seismic tests. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro-Level Assessment of Seismically Induced Landslide Hazard for the State of Sikkim, India Based On GIS Technique

This paper presents a macro-level seismic landslide hazard assessment for the entire state of Sikkim, India, based on the Newmark's methodology. The slope map of Sikkim was derived from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM). Seismic shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at bedrock level was estimated from deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), considering point source model. Peak horizontal acceleration at the surface level for the study area was estimated based on nonlinear site amplification technique, considering B-type NEHRP site class. The PHA at surface was considered to induce driving forces on slopes, thus causing landslides. Knowing the surface level PHA and slope angle, the seismic landslide hazard assessment for each grid point was carried out using Newmark's analysis. The critical static factor of safety required to resist landslide for the PHA (obtained from deterministic analysis) was evaluated and its spatial variation throughout the study area is presented. For any slope in the study area, if the in-situ (available) static factor of safety is greater than the static factor of safety required to resist landslide as predicted in the present study, that slope is considered to be safe.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Optimal input cross-power spectra in shake table testing of asymmetric structures

The study considers earthquake shake table testing of bending-torsion coupled structures under multi-component stationary random earthquake excitations. An experimental procedure to arrive at the optimal excitation cross-power spectral density (psd) functions which maximize/minimize the steady state variance of a chosen response variable is proposed. These optimal functions are shown to be derivable in terms of a set of system frequency response functions which could be measured experimentally without necessitating an idealized mathematical model to be postulated for the structure under study. The relationship between these optimized cross-psd functions to the most favourable/least favourable angle of incidence of seismic waves on the structure is noted. The optimal functions are also shown to be system dependent, mathematically the sharpest, and correspond to neither fully correlated motions nor independent motions. The proposed experimental procedure is demonstrated through shake table studies on two laboratory scale building frame models.

Stalagmite growth perturbations from the Kumaun Himalaya as potential earthquake recorders

The central part of the Himalaya (Kumaun and Garhwal Provinces of India) is noted for its prolonged seismic quiescence, and therefore, developing a longer-term time series of past earthquakes to understand their recurrence pattern in this segment assumes importance. In addition to direct observations of offsets in stratigraphic exposures or other proxies like paleoliquefaction, deformation preserved within stalagmites (speleothems) in karst system can be analyzed to obtain continuous millennial scale time series of earthquakes. The Central Indian Himalaya hosts natural caves between major active thrusts forming potential storehouses for paleoseismological records. Here, we present results from the limestone caves in the Kumaun Himalaya and discuss the implications of growth perturbations identified in the stalagmites as possible earthquake recorders. This article focuses on three stalagmites from the Dharamjali Cave located in the eastern Kumaun Himalaya, although two other caves, one of them located in the foothills, were also examined for their suitability. The growth anomalies in stalagmites include abrupt tilting or rotation of growth axes, growth termination, and breakage followed by regrowth. The U-Th age data from three specimens allow us to constrain the intervals of growth anomalies, and these were dated at 4273 +/- 410 years BP (2673-1853 BC), 2782 +/- 79 years BP (851-693 BC), 2498 +/- 117 years BP (605-371 BC), 1503 +/- 245 years BP (262-752 AD), 1346 +/- 101 years BP (563-765 AD), and 687 +/- 147 years BP (1176-1470 AD). The dates may correspond to the timings of major/great earthquakes in the region and the youngest event (1176-1470 AD) shows chronological correspondence with either one of the great medieval earthquakes (1050-1250 and 1259-1433 AD) evident from trench excavations across the Himalayan Frontal Thrust.

Joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics: Evaluation of constraints from global tomography models

With the advances in technology, seismological theory, and data acquisition, a number of high-resolution seismic tomography models have been published. However, discrepancies between tomography models often arise from different theoretical treatments of seismic wave propagation, different inversion strategies, and different data sets. Using a fixed velocity-to-density scaling and a fixed radial viscosity profile, we compute global mantle flow models associated with the different tomography models and test the impact of these for explaining surface geophysical observations (geoid, dynamic topography, stress, and strain rates). We use the joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics approach of Ghosh and Holt (2012) to compute the full lithosphere stresses, except that we use HC for the mantle circulation model, which accounts for the primary flow-coupling features associated with density-driven mantle flow. Our results show that the seismic tomography models of S40RTS and SAW642AN provide a better match with surface observables on a global scale than other models tested. Both of these tomography models have important similarities, including upwellings located in Pacific, Eastern Africa, Iceland, and mid-ocean ridges in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean and downwelling flows mainly located beneath the Andes, the Middle East, and central and Southeast Asia.