284 resultados para Oceanic mythology.


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We have analysed the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region (10S-35N, 60E-100E) using both satellite and in-situ data, and found many interesting features associated with this fundamental, yet under-explored, mode of variability. Since there is a distinct and strong diurnal mode of variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, we evaluate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. The model (at 54km grid-spacing) is integrated for the month of July, 2006, since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), by using two different SST datasets, namely, Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). It was found that with RTG SST the rainfall simulation over central India (CI) was significantly better than that with FNL. On the other hand, over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), rainfall simulated with FNL was marginally better than with RTG. However, the overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the role of the convective parameterization scheme on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. We found that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme performs significantly better than Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi schemes. We also studied the impact of other physical parameterizations, namely, microphysics, boundary layer, land surface, and the radiation parameterization, on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall, and identified the “best” model configuration. We used this configuration of the “best” model to perform a sensitivity study on the role of various convective components used in the KF scheme. In particular, we studied the role of convective downdrafts, convective timescale, and feedback fraction, on the simulated diurnal cycle of rainfall. The “best” model simulations, in general, show a good agreement with observations. Specifically, (i) Over CI, the simulated diurnal rainfall peak is at 1430 IST, in comparison to the observed 1430-1730 IST peak; (ii) Over Western Ghats and Burmese mountains, the model simulates a diurnal rainfall peak at 1430 IST, as opposed to the observed peak of 1430-1730 IST; (iii) Over Sumatra, both model and observations show a diurnal peak at 1730 IST; (iv) The observed southward propagating diurnal rainfall bands over BoB are weakly simulated by WRF. Besides the diurnal cycle of rainfall, the mean spatial pattern of total rainfall and its partitioning between the convective and stratiform components, are also well simulated. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over CI and BoB. While, the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for the whole of July, 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18 - 24 July, 2006. The results of our coarse- and fine-scale numerical simulations of the diurnal cycle of monsoon rainfall will be discussed.

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For over a century, the term break has been used for spells in which the rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone is interrupted. The phenomenon of 'break monsoon' is of great interest because long intense breaks are often associated with poor monsoon seasons. Such breaks have distinct circulation characteristics (heat trough type circulation) and have a large impact on rainfed agriculture. Although interruption of the monsoon rainfall is considered to be the most important feature of the break monsoon, traditionally breaks have been identified on the basis of the surface pressure and wind patterns over the Indian region. We have defined breaks (and active spells) on the basis of rainfall over the monsoon zone. The rainfall criteria are chosen so as to ensure a large overlap with the traditional breaks documented by Ramamurthy (1969) and De et al (1998). We have identified these rainbreaks for 1901-89. We have also identified active spells on the basis of rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone. We have shown that the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with the number of rainbreak days (correlation coefficient -0.56) and significantly positively correlated with the number of active days (correlation coefficient 0.47). Thus the interannual variation of the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is shown to be related to the number of days of rainbreaks and active spells identified here. There have been several studies of breaks (and also active spells in several cases) identified on the basis of different criteria over regions differing in spatial scales (e.g., Webster et al 1998; Krishnan et al 2000; Goswami and Mohan 2000; and Annamalai and Slingo 2001). We find that there is considerable overlap between the rainbreaks we have identified and breaks based on the traditional definition. There is some overlap with the breaks identified by Krishnan et al (2000) but little overlap with breaks identified by Webster et al (1998). Further, there are three or four active-break cycles in a season according to Webster et al (1998) which implies a time scale of about 40 days for which Goswami and Mohan (2000), and Annamalai and Slingo'(2001) have studied breaks and active minus break fluctuations. On the other hand, neither the traditional breaks (Ramamurthy 1969; and De et al 1998) nor the rainbreaks occur every year. This suggests that the 'breaks' in these studies axe weak spells of the intraseasonal variation of the monsoon, which occur every year. We have derived the OLR and circulation patterns associated with rainbreaks and active spells and compared them with the patterns associated with breaks/active minus break spells from these studies. Inspite of differences in the patterns over the Indian region, there is one feature which is seen in the OLR anomaly patterns of breaks identified on the basis of different criteria as well as the rainbreaks identified in this paper viz., a quadrapole over the Asia-west Pacific region arising from anomalies opposite (same) in sign to those over the Indian region occurring over the equatorial Indian Ocean and northern tropical (equatorial) parts of the west Pacific. Thus it appears that this quadrapole is a basic feature of weak spells of the intraseasonal,variation over the Asia-west Pacific region. Since the rainbreaks are intense weak spells, this basic feature is also seen in the composite patterns of these breaks. We find that rainbreaks (active spells) are also associated with negative (positive) anomalies over a part of the cast Pacific suggesting that the convection over the Indian region is linked to that over the east Pacific not only on the interannual scale (as evinced by the link between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ENSO) but on the intraseasonal scale as well.

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This paper describes the near surface characteristics and vertical variations based on the observations made at 17.5degreesN and 89degreesE from ORV Sagar Kanya in the north Bay of Bengal during the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) carried out in July-August 1999. BOBMEX captured both the active and weak phases of convection. SST remained above the convection threshold throughout the BOBMEX. While the response of the SST to atmospheric forcing was clearly observed, the response of the atmosphere to SST changes was not clear. SST decreased during periods of large scale precipitation, and increased during a weak phase of convection. It is shown that the latent heat flux at comparable wind speeds was about 25-50% lower over the Bay during BOBMEX compared to that over the Indian Ocean during other seasons and tropical west Pacific. On the other hand, the largest variations in the surface daily net heat flux are observed over the Bay during BOBMEX. SST predicted using observed surface fluxes showed that 1-D heat balance model works sometime but not always, and horizontal advection is important. The high resolution Vaisala radiosondes launched during BOBMEX could clearly bring out the changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere between active and weak phases of convection. Convective Available Potential Energy of the surface air decreased,by 2-3 kJ kg(-1) following convection, and recovered in a time period of one or two days. The mid tropospheric relative humidity and water vapor content, and wind direction show the major changes between the active and weak phases of convection.

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For over 300 years, the monsoon has been viewed as a gigantic land-sea breeze. It is shown in this paper that satellite and conventional observations support an alternative hypothesis, which considers the monsoon as a manifestation of seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). With the focus on the Indian monsoon, the mean seasonal pattern is described, and why it is difficult to simulate it is discussed. Some facets of the intraseasonal variation, such as active-weak cycles; break monsoon; and a special feature of intraseasonal variation over the region, namely, poleward propagations of the ITCZ at intervals of 2-6 weeks, are considered. Vertical moist stability is shown to be a key parameter in the variation of monthly convection over ocean and land as well as poleward propagations. Special features of the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon brought out by observations during a national observational experiment in 1999 are briefly described.

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Recent studies have shown that changes in solar radiation affect the hydrological cycle more strongly than equivalent CO(2) changes for the same change in global mean surface temperature. Thus, solar radiation management ``geoengineering'' proposals to completely offset global mean temperature increases by reducing the amount of absorbed sunlight might be expected to slow the global water cycle and reduce runoff over land. However, proposed countering of global warming by increasing the albedo of marine clouds would reduce surface solar radiation only over the oceans. Here, for an idealized scenario, we analyze the response of temperature and the hydrological cycle to increased reflection by clouds over the ocean using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. When cloud droplets are reduced in size over all oceans uniformly to offset the temperature increase from a doubling of atmospheric CO(2), the global-mean precipitation and evaporation decreases by about 1.3% but runoff over land increases by 7.5% primarily due to increases over tropical land. In the model, more reflective marine clouds cool the atmospheric column over ocean. The result is a sinking motion over oceans and upward motion over land. We attribute the increased runoff over land to this increased upward motion over land when marine clouds are made more reflective. Our results suggest that, in contrast to other proposals to increase planetary albedo, offsetting mean global warming by reducing marine cloud droplet size does not necessarily lead to a drying, on average, of the continents. However, we note that the changes in precipitation, evaporation and P-E are dominated by small but significant areas, and given the highly idealized nature of this study, a more thorough and broader assessment would be required for proposals of altering marine cloud properties on a large scale.

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An assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the global dynamic vegetation model IBIS for A1B scenario is conducted for short-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) periods. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modelling, vulnerable forested regions of India have been identified to assist in planning adaptation interventions. The assessment of climate impacts showed that at the national level, about 45% of the forested grids is projected to undergo change. Vulnerability assessment showed that such vulnerable forested grids are spread across India. However, their concentration is higher in the upper Himalayan stretches, parts of Central India, northern Western Ghats and the Eastern Ghats. In contrast, the northeastern forests, southern Western Ghats and the forested regions of eastern India are estimated to be the least vulnerable. Low tree density, low biodiversity status as well as higher levels of fragmentation, in addition to climate change, contribute to the vulnerability of these forests. The mountainous forests (sub-alpine and alpine forest, the Himalayan dry temperate forest and the Himalayan moist temperate forest) are susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. This is because climate change is predicted to be larger for regions that have greater elevations.

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The Indian subcontinent divides the north Indian Ocean into two tropical basins, namely the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The Arabian Sea has high salinity whereas the salinity of the Bay of Bengal is much lower due to the contrast in freshwater forcing of the two basins. The freshwater received by the Bay in large amounts during the summer monsoon through river discharge is flushed out annually by ocean circulation. After the withdrawal of the summer monsoon, the Ganga – Brahmaputra river plume flows first along the Indian coast and then around Sri Lanka into the Arabian Sea creating a low salinity pool in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS). In the same region, during the pre-monsoon months of February – April, a warm pool, known as the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP), which is distinctly warmer than the rest of the Indian Ocean, takes shape. In fact, this is the warmest region in the world oceans during this period. Simulation of the river plume and its movement as well as its implications to thermodynamics has been a challenging problem for models of Indian Ocean. Here we address these issues using an ocean general circulation model – first we show that the model is capable of reproducing fresh plumes in the Bay of Bengal as well as its movement and then we use the model to determine the processes that lead to formation of the ASMWP. Hydrographic observations from the western Bay of Bengal have shown the presence of a fresh plume along the northern part of the Indian coast during summer monsoon. The Indian Ocean model when forced by realistic winds and climatological river discharge reproduces the fresh plume with reasonable accuracy. The fresh plume does not advect along the Indian coast until the end of summer monsoon. The North Bay Monsoon Current, which flows eastward in the northern Bay, separates the low salinity water from the more saline southern parts of the bay and thus plays an important role in the fresh water budget of the Bay of Bengal. The model also reproduces the surge of the fresh-plume along the Indian coast, into the Arabian Sea during northeast monsoon. Mechanisms that lead to the formation of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool are investigated using several numerical experiments. Contrary to the existing theories, we find that salinity effects are not necessary for the formation of the ASMWP. The orographic effects of the Sahyadris (Western Ghats) and resulting reduction in wind speed leads to the formation of the ASMWP. During November – April, the SEAS behave as a low-wind heatdominated regime where the evolution of sea surface temperature is solely determined by atmospheric forcing. In such regions the evolution of surface layer temperature is not dependent on the characteristics of the subsurface ocean such as the barrier layer and temperature inversion.

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Altitude variations of the mass concentration of black carbon, number concentration of composite aerosols are examined along with the columnar spectral aerosol optical depths using state of the art instruments and the Angstrom parameters are inferred from the ground based measurements at several altitude levels, en route from Manora Peak, Nainital (similar to 1950 m above mean sea level) to a low altitude station Haldwani (similar to 330 m above mean sea level) at its foothill within an aerial distance of <10,000 m. The measurements were done during the winter months (November-February) of 2005, 2006 and 2007 under fair weather conditions. The results show a rapid decrease in all the measured parameters with increase in altitude, with >60% contribution to the AOD coming from the regions below 1000 m. The Angstrom wavelength exponent remained high in the well mixed region, and decreased above. The normalized AOD gradient was used to estimate aerosol mixing height, which was found to be in the altitude range 1000-1500 m, above which the particle concentrations are slowly varying as a function of altitude. The heating rate at the surface is found to be maximum but decreases sharply with increase in altitude. Analysis of the wavelength dependence of absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) showed that the aerosol absorption over the site is generally due to mixed aerosols. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Computational grids are increasingly being used for executing large multi-component scientific applications. The most widely reported advantages of application execution on grids are the performance benefits, in terms of speeds, problem sizes or quality of solutions, due to increased number of processors. We explore the possibility of improved performance on grids without increasing the application’s processor space. For this, we consider grids with multiple batch systems. We explore the challenges involved in and the advantages of executing long-running multi-component applications on multiple batch sites with a popular multi-component climate simulation application, CCSM, as the motivation.We have performed extensive simulation studies to estimate the single and multi-site execution rates of the applications for different system characteristics.Our experiments show that in many cases, multiple batch executions can have better execution rates than a single site execution.