Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

De-DUFing the DUFs: Deciphering distant evolutionary relationships of Domains of Unknown Function using sensitive homology detection methods

Background: In the post-genomic era where sequences are being determined at a rapid rate, we are highly reliant on computational methods for their tentative biochemical characterization. The Pfam database currently contains 3,786 families corresponding to ``Domains of Unknown Function'' (DUF) or ``Uncharacterized Protein Family'' (UPF), of which 3,087 families have no reported three-dimensional structure, constituting almost one-fourth of the known protein families in search for both structure and function. Results: We applied a `computational structural genomics' approach using five state-of-the-art remote similarity detection methods to detect the relationship between uncharacterized DUFs and domain families of known structures. The association with a structural domain family could serve as a start point in elucidating the function of a DUF. Amongst these five methods, searches in SCOP-NrichD database have been applied for the first time. Predictions were classified into high, medium and low-confidence based on the consensus of results from various approaches and also annotated with enzyme and Gene ontology terms. 614 uncharacterized DUFs could be associated with a known structural domain, of which high confidence predictions, involving at least four methods, were made for 54 families. These structure-function relationships for the 614 DUF families can be accessed on-line at http://proline.biochem.iisc.ernet.in/RHD_DUFS/. For potential enzymes in this set, we assessed their compatibility with the associated fold and performed detailed structural and functional annotation by examining alignments and extent of conservation of functional residues. Detailed discussion is provided for interesting assignments for DUF3050, DUF1636, DUF1572, DUF2092 and DUF659. Conclusions: This study provides insights into the structure and potential function for nearly 20 % of the DUFs. Use of different computational approaches enables us to reliably recognize distant relationships, especially when they converge to a common assignment because the methods are often complementary. We observe that while pointers to the structural domain can offer the right clues to the function of a protein, recognition of its precise functional role is still `non-trivial' with many DUF domains conserving only some of the critical residues. It is not clear whether these are functional vestiges or instances involving alternate substrates and interacting partners. Reviewers: This article was reviewed by Drs Eugene Koonin, Frank Eisenhaber and Srikrishna Subramanian.

A posteriori error estimates of discontinuous Galerkin methods for the Signorini problem

A reliable and efficient a posteriori error estimator is derived for a class of discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods for the Signorini problem. A common property shared by many DG methods leads to a unified error analysis with the help of a constraint preserving enriching map. The error estimator of DG methods is comparable with the error estimator of the conforming methods. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the error estimator. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reservoir Operation with Fuzzy State Variables for Irrigation of Multiple Crops

This paper presents the development and application of a stochastic dynamic programming model with fuzzy state variables for irrigation of multiple crops. A fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming (FSDP) model is developed in which the reservoir storage and soil moisture of the crops are considered as fuzzy numbers, and the reservoir inflow is considered as a stochastic variable. The model is formulated with an objective of minimizing crop yield deficits, resulting in optimal water allocations to the crops by maintaining storage continuity and soil moisture balance. The standard fuzzy arithmetic method is used to solve all arithmetic equations with fuzzy numbers, and the fuzzy ranking method is used to compare two or more fuzzy numbers. The reservoir operation model is integrated with a daily-based water allocation model, which results in daily temporal variations of allocated water, soil moisture, and crop deficits. A case study of an existing Bhadra reservoir in Karnataka, India, is chosen for the model application. The FSDP is a more realistic model because it considers the uncertainty in discretization of state variables. The results obtained using the FSDP model are found to be more acceptable for the case study than those of the classical stochastic dynamic model and the standard operating model, in terms of 10-day releases from the reservoir and evapotranspiration deficit. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A FRAMEWORK FOR THE ERROR ANALYSIS OF DISCONTINUOUS FINITE ELEMENT METHODS FOR ELLIPTIC OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS AND APPLICATIONS TO C-0 IP METHODS

In this article, an abstract framework for the error analysis of discontinuous Galerkin methods for control constrained optimal control problems is developed. The analysis establishes the best approximation result from a priori analysis point of view and delivers a reliable and efficient a posteriori error estimator. The results are applicable to a variety of problems just under the minimal regularity possessed by the well-posedness of the problem. Subsequently, the applications of C-0 interior penalty methods for a boundary control problem as well as a distributed control problem governed by the biharmonic equation subject to simply supported boundary conditions are discussed through the abstract analysis. Numerical experiments illustrate the theoretical findings.

Fuzzy State Real-Time Reservoir Operation Model for Irrigation with Gridded Rainfall Forecasts

A short-term real-time operation model with fuzzy state variables is developed for irrigation of multiple crops based on earlier work on long-term steady-state policy. The features of the model that distinguish it from the earlier work are (1) apart from inclusion of fuzziness in reservoir storage and in soil moisture of crops, spatial variations in rainfall and soil moisture of crops are included in the real-time operation model by considering gridded command area with a grid size of 0.5 degrees latitude by 0.5 degrees longitude; (2) the water allocation model and soil moisture balance equations are integrated with the real-time operation model with consideration of ponding water depth for Paddy crop; the model solution specifies reservoir releases for irrigation in a 10-day time period and allocations among the crops on a daily basis at each grid by maintaining soil moisture balance at the end of the day; and (3) the release policy is developed using forecasted daily rainfall data of each grid and is implemented for the current time period using actual 10-day inflow and actual daily rainfall of each grid. The real-time operation model is applied to Bhadra Reservoir in Karnataka, India. The results obtained using the real-time operation model are compared with those of the standard operating policy model. Inclusion of fuzziness in reservoir storage and soil moisture of crops captures hydrologic uncertainties in real time. Considerations of irrigation decisions on a daily basis and the gridded command area result in variations in allocating water to the crops, variations in actual crop evapotranspiration, and variations in soil moisture of the crops on a daily basis for each grid of the command area. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.