Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A numerical study of projectile impact on mild steel armour plates

The present article deals with the development of a finite element modelling approach for the prediction of residual velocities of hard core ogival-nose projectiles following normal impact on mild steel target plates causing perforation. The impact velocities for the cases analysed are in the range 818–866.3 m/s. Assessment of finite element modelling and analysis includes a comprehensive mesh convergence study using shell elements for representing target plates and solid elements for jacketed projectiles with a copper sheath and a rigid core. Dynamic analyses were carried out with the explicit contact-impact LS-DYNA 970 solver. It has been shown that proper choice of element size and strain rate-based material modelling of target plate are crucial for obtaining test-based residual velocity.The present modelling procedure also leads to realistic representation of target plate failure and projectile sheath erosion during perforation, and confirms earlier observations that thermal effects are not significant for impact problems within the ordnance range. To the best of our knowledge, any aspect of projectile failure or degradation obtained in simulation has not been reported earlier in the literature. The validated simulation approach was applied to compute the ballistic limits and to study the effects of plate thickness and projectile diameter on residual velocity, and trends consistent with experimental data for similar situations were obtained.

Epoch extraction from linear prediction residual for identification of closed glottis interval

In voiced speech analysis epochal information is useful in accurate estimation of pitch periods and the frequency response of the vocal tract system. Ideally, linear prediction (LP) residual should give impulses at epochs. However, there are often ambiguities in the direct use of LP residual since samples of either polarity occur around epochs. Further, since the digital inverse filter does not compensate the phase response of the vocal tract system exactly, there is an uncertainty in the estimated epoch position. In this paper we present an interpretation of LP residual by considering the effect of the following factors: 1) the shape of glottal pulses, 2) inaccurate estimation of formants and bandwidths, 3) phase angles of formants at the instants of excitation, and 4) zeros in the vocal tract system. A method for the unambiguous identification of epochs from LP residual is then presented. The accuracy of the method is tested by comparing the results with the epochs obtained from the estimated glottal pulse shapes for several vowel segments. The method is used to identify the closed glottis interval for the estimation of the true frequency response of the vocal tract system.

A finite element analysis of dynamic fracture initiation by ductile failure mechanisms in a 4340 steel

In some recent dropweight impact experiments [5] with pre-notched bend specimens of 4340 steel, it was observed that considerable crack tunneling occurred in the interior of the specimen prior to gross fracture initiation on the free surfaces. The final failure of the side ligaments happened because of shear lip formation. The tunneled region is characterized by a flat, fibrous fracture surface. In this paper, the experiments of [5] (corresponding to 5 m/s impact speed) are analyzed using a plane strain, dynamic finite element procedure. The Gurson constitutive model that accounts for the ductile failure mechanisms of micro-void nucleation, growth and coalescence is employed. The time at which incipient failure was observed near the notch tip in this computation, and the value of the dynamic J-integral, J d, at this time, compare reasonably well with experiments. This investigation shows that J-controlled stress and deformation fields are established near the notch tip whenever J d , increases with time. Also, it is found that the evolution of micro-mechanical quantities near the notch root can be correlated with the time variation of J d .The strain rate and the adiabatic temperature rise experienced at the notch root are examined. Finally, spatial variations of stresses and deformations are analyzed in detail.

Performance prediction and loss analysis of low specific speed submersible pumps

A performance prediction procedure is presented for low specific speed submersible pumps with a review of loss models given in the literature. Most of the loss theories discussed in this paper are one dimensional and improvements are made with good empiricism for the prediction to cover the entire range of operation of the low specific speed pumps. Loss correlations, particularly in the low flow range, are discussed. Prediction of the shape of efficiency-capacity and total head-capacity curves agrees well with the experimental results in almost the full range of operating conditions. The approach adopted in the present analysis, of estimating the losses in the individual components of a pump, provides means for improving the performance and identifying the problem areas in existing designs of the pumps. The investigation also provides a basis for selection of parameters for the optimal design of the pumps in which the maximum efficiency is an important design parameter. The scope for improvement in the prediction procedure with the nature of flow phenomena in the low flow region has been discussed in detail.

Dynamic response of latex modified concrete machine foundations

New materials in concrete constructions have been widely used to improve various properties such as impact resistance, strength and durability. Polymer modified concrete is one of the new materials which has been developed for potential application in the construction industry. This Paper describes the use of polymer latex for foundation blocks subjected to dynamic loads. Experiments were conducted using ordinary concrete and latex modified concrete footings of three different thicknesses, for three static loads at four excitation levels. Experimental results have revealed that the amplitude of resonance is reduced considerably in the latex modified concrete footings.

Dynamic growth of tensile cracks by ductile and brittle fracture mechanisms in a viscoplastic material

In this paper, a finite element analysis of steady-state dynamic crack growth under Mode I, plane strain, small-scale yielding conditions is performed in a rate dependent plastic material characterized by the over-stress model. The main objective of the paper is to obtain theoretically the dependence of dynamic fracture toughness on crack speed. Crack propagation due to a ductile (micro-void) mechanism or a brittle (cleavage) mechanism, as well as transition from one mode to another are considered. The conversion from ductile to brittle has been observed experimentally but has received very little attention using analytical methods. Local fracture criteria based on strains and stresses are used to describe ductile and brittle fracture mechanisms. The results obtained in this paper are in general agreement with micro-structural observations of mode conversion during fracture initiation. Finally, the particular roles played by material rate sensitivity and inertia are examined in some detail.

Dynamic Structure Factor of Sponge Phases

We predict the dynamic light scattering intensity S(q,t) for the L3 phase (anomalous isotropic phase) of dilute surfactant solutions. Our results are based on a Landau-Ginzburg approach, which was previously used to explain the observed static structure factor S(q, 0). In the extreme limit of small q, we find a monoexponential decay with marginal or irrelevant hydrodynamic interactions. In most other regimes the decay of S(q,t) is strongly nonexponential; in one case, it is purely algebraic at long times.

Characteristics of Dynamic Recrystalization Domain in the Processing Map for Hot-Working of OFHC Coper

The constitutive flow behaviour of OFHC copper under working conditions is studied using hot compression in the temperature range 650 to 900-degrees-C and strain rate range 0.001 to 100 s-1. The variation of the efficiency of power dissipation given by [2m/(m + 1)] (where m is the strain rate sensitivity) with temperature and strain rate is represented in the form of a power dissipation map and interpreted on the basis of the Dynamic Materials Model. The map prominently exhibited a domain centered at 850-degrees-C and 100 s-1 with a peak efficiency of 35 %. On the basis of the correlation of variations of grain size, efficiency of power dissipation and hot workability with temperature, the domain is identified to represent dynamic recrystallization (DRX).

Dynamic response of a beam on elastic foundation of finite depth under a moving force

In this paper, dynamic response of an infinitely long beam resting on a foundation of finite depth, under a moving force is studied. The effect of foundation inertia is included in the analysis by modelling the foundation as a series of closely spaced axially vibrating rods of finite depth, fixed at the bottom and connected to the beam at the top. Viscous damping in the beam and foundation is included in the analysis. Steady state response of the beam-foundation system is obtained. Detailed numerical results are presented to study the effect of various parameters such as foundation mass, velocity of the moving load, damping and axial force on the beam. It is shown that foundation inertia can considerably reduce the critical velocity and can also amplify the beam response.

Flap‐Lag Damping in Hover and Forward Flight with a Three‐Dimensional Wake

Prediction of lag damping is difficult owing to the delicate balance of drag, induced drag and Coriolis forces in the in‐plane direction. Moreover, induced drag” is sensitive to dynamic wake, bath shed and trailing components, and thus its prediction requires adequate unsteady‐wake representation. Accordingly, rigid‐blade flap‐lag equations are coupled with a three‐dimensional finite‐state wake model; three isolatcd rotor canfigurations with three, four and five blades are treated over a range of thrust levels, tack numbers, lag frequencies and advance ratios. The investigation includes convergence characteristics of damping with respect to the number of radial shape functions and harmonics of the wake model for multiblade modes of low frequency (< 1/ rev.) to high frequency (> 1/rev.). Predicted flap and lag damping levels are then compared with similar predictions with 1) rigid wake (no unsteady induced now), 2) Loewy lift deficiency and 3) dynamic inflow. The coverage also includes correlations with the measured lag regressive‐mode damping in hover and forward flight and comparisons with similar correlations with dynamic inflow. Lag‐damping predictions with the dynamic wake model are consistently higher than the predictions with the dynamic inflow model; even for the low frequency lag regressive mode, the number of wake harmonics should at least be equal to twice the number of blades.

Fatigue life prediction of adhesively bonded single lap joints

Better fatigue performance of adhesively bonded joints makes them suitable for most structural applications. However, predicting the service life of bonded joints accurately remains a challenge. In this present study, nonlinear computational simulations have been performed on adhesively bonded single lap ASTM-D1002 shear joint considering both geometrical and material nonlinearities to predict the fatigue life by judiciously applying the modified Coffin-Manson equation for adhesive joints. Elasto-plastic material models have been employed for both the adhesive and the adherends. The predicted life has close agreement in the high cycle fatigue (HCF) regime with empirical observations reported in the literature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Missile battery placement for air defense: A dynamic programming approach

A procedure to evaluate surface-to-air missile battery placement patterns for air defense is presented. A measure of defense effectiveness is defined as a function of kill probability of the defense missiles and the nature of the surrounding terrain features. The concept of cumulative danger index is used to select the best path for a penetrating hostile aircraft for any given pattern of placement. The aircraft is assumed to be intelligent and well-informed. The path is generated using a dynamic programming methodology. The software package so developed can be used off-line to choose the best among a number of possible battery placement patterns.

NDDO-based CI methods for the prediction of electronic spectra and sum-over-states molecular hyperpolarization

NDDO-based (AM1) configuration interaction (CI) calculations have been used to calculate the wavelength and oscillator strengths of electronic absorptions in organic molecules and the results used in a sum-over-states treatment to calculate second-order-hyperpolarizabilities. The results for both spectra and hyperpolarizabilities are of acceptable quality as long as a suitable CI-expansion is used. We have found that using an active space of eight electrons in eight orbitals and including all single and pair-double excitations in the CI leads to results that agree well with experiment and that do not change significantly with increasing active space for most organic molecules. Calculated second-order hyperpolarizabilities using this type of CI within a sum-over-states calculation appear to be of useful accuracy.