Numerical Modelling of the Observed Diurnal Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

We have analysed the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region (10S-35N, 60E-100E) using both satellite and in-situ data, and found many interesting features associated with this fundamental, yet under-explored, mode of variability. Since there is a distinct and strong diurnal mode of variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, we evaluate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. The model (at 54km grid-spacing) is integrated for the month of July, 2006, since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), by using two different SST datasets, namely, Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). It was found that with RTG SST the rainfall simulation over central India (CI) was significantly better than that with FNL. On the other hand, over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), rainfall simulated with FNL was marginally better than with RTG. However, the overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the role of the convective parameterization scheme on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. We found that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme performs significantly better than Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi schemes. We also studied the impact of other physical parameterizations, namely, microphysics, boundary layer, land surface, and the radiation parameterization, on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall, and identified the “best” model configuration. We used this configuration of the “best” model to perform a sensitivity study on the role of various convective components used in the KF scheme. In particular, we studied the role of convective downdrafts, convective timescale, and feedback fraction, on the simulated diurnal cycle of rainfall. The “best” model simulations, in general, show a good agreement with observations. Specifically, (i) Over CI, the simulated diurnal rainfall peak is at 1430 IST, in comparison to the observed 1430-1730 IST peak; (ii) Over Western Ghats and Burmese mountains, the model simulates a diurnal rainfall peak at 1430 IST, as opposed to the observed peak of 1430-1730 IST; (iii) Over Sumatra, both model and observations show a diurnal peak at 1730 IST; (iv) The observed southward propagating diurnal rainfall bands over BoB are weakly simulated by WRF. Besides the diurnal cycle of rainfall, the mean spatial pattern of total rainfall and its partitioning between the convective and stratiform components, are also well simulated. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over CI and BoB. While, the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for the whole of July, 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18 - 24 July, 2006. The results of our coarse- and fine-scale numerical simulations of the diurnal cycle of monsoon rainfall will be discussed.

Detection of moisture stress by indicator plots — A simulation

The possibility of advanced indication of moisture stress in a crop by small prepared plots with compacted or partially sand-substituted soils is examined by an analytical simulation. A series of soils and three crops are considered for the simulation. The moisture characteristics of the soils are calculated with an available model. Using average potential evapotranspiration values and a simple actual evapotranspiration model, the onset of moisture stress in the natural and indicator plots is calculated for different degrees of sand substitution and compaction. Cases where sand substitution fails are determined. The effect of intervening rainfall and limited root depth on the beginning of moisture stress is investigated.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Influence of friction during forming processes-a study using a numerical simulation technique

Friction has an important influence in metal forming operations, as it contributes to the success or otherwise of the process. In the present investigation, the effect of friction on metal forming was studied by simulating compression tests on cylindrical Al-Mg alloy using the finite element method (FEM) technique. Three kinds of compression tests were considered wherein a constant coefficient of friction was employed at the upper die-work-piece interface. However, the coefficient of friction between the lower die-work-piece interfaces was varied in the tests. The simulation results showed that a difference in metal flow occurs near the interfaces owing to the differences in the coefficient of friction. It was concluded that the variations in the coefficient of friction between the dies and the work-piece directly affect the stress distribution and shape of the work-piece, having implications on the microstructure of the material being processed.

Reliable estimation via simulation

Let a and s denote the inter arrival times and service times in a GI/GI/1 queue. Let a (n), s (n) be the r.v.s, with distributions as the estimated distributions of a and s from iid samples of a and s of sizes n. Let w be a r.v. with the stationary distribution lr of the waiting times of the queue with input (a, s). We consider the problem of estimating E [w~], tx > 0 and 7r via simulations when (a (n), s (n)) are used as input. Conditions for the accuracy of the asymptotic estimate, continuity of the asymptotic variance and uniformity in the rate of convergence to the estimate are obtained. We also obtain rates of convergence for sample moments, the empirical process and the quantile process for the regenerative processes. Robust estimates are also obtained when an outlier contaminated sample of a and s is provided. In the process we obtain consistency, continuity and asymptotic normality of M-estimators for stationary sequences. Some robustness results for Markov processes are included.

Dynamic analysis and simulation of a VSC based Back-to-Back HVDC link

This paper presents the modeling and analysis of a voltage source converter (VSC) based back-to-back (BTB) HVDC link. The case study considers the response to changes in the active and reactive power and disturbance caused by single line to ground (SLG) fault. The controllers at each terminal are designed to inject a variable (magnitude and phase angle) sinusoidal, balanced set of voltages to regulate/control the active and reactive power. It is also possible to regulate the converter bus (AC) voltage by controlling the injected reactive power. The analysis is carried out using both d-q model (neglecting the harmonics in the output voltages of VSC) and three phase detailed model of VSC. While the eigenvalue analysis and controller design is based on the d-q model, the transient simulation considers both models.

Real-time simulation of electrical machines on FPGA platform

This paper presents real-time simulation models of electrical machines on FPGA platform. Implementation of the real-time numerical integration methods with digital logic elements is discussed. Several numerical integrations are presented. A real-time simulation of DC machine is carried out on this FPGA platform and important transient results are presented. These results are compared to simulation results obtained through a commercial off-line simulation software.

Influence of time step in the simulation modelling of evapotranspiration

Three simulations of evapotranspiration were done with two values of time step,viz 10 min and one day. Inputs to the model were weather data, including directly measured upward and downward radiation, and soil characteristics. Three soils were used for each simulation. Analysis of the results shows that the time step has a direct influence on the prediction of potential evapotranspiration, but a complex interaction of this effect with the soil moisture characteristic, rate of increase of ground cover and bare soil evaporation determines the actual transpiration predicted. The results indicate that as small a time step as possible should be used in the simulation.

Cluster analysis of rainfall stations of the Indian peninsula

Principal component analysis is applied to derive patterns of temporal variation of the rainfall at fifty-three stations in peninsular India. The location of the stations in the coordinate space determined by the amplitudes of the two leading eigenvectors is used to delineate them into eight clusters. The clusters obtained seem to be stable with respect to variations in the grid of stations used. Stations within any cluster occur in geographically contiguous areas.

Software simulation of the EEG

The literature contains many examples of digital procedures for the analytical treatment of electroencephalograms, but there is as yet no standard by which those techniques may be judged or compared. This paper proposes one method of generating an EEG, based on a computer program for Zetterberg's simulation. It is assumed that the statistical properties of an EEG may be represented by stationary processes having rational transfer functions and achieved by a system of software fillers and random number generators.The model represents neither the neurological mechanism response for generating the EEG, nor any particular type of EEG record; transient phenomena such as spikes, sharp waves and alpha bursts also are excluded. The basis of the program is a valid ‘partial’ statistical description of the EEG; that description is then used to produce a digital representation of a signal which if plotted sequentially, might or might not by chance resemble an EEG, that is unimportant. What is important is that the statistical properties of the series remain those of a real EEG; it is in this sense that the output is a simulation of the EEG. There is considerable flexibility in the form of the output, i.e. its alpha, beta and delta content, which may be selected by the user, the same selected parameters always producing the same statistical output. The filtered outputs from the random number sequences may be scaled to provide realistic power distributions in the accepted EEG frequency bands and then summed to create a digital output signal, the ‘stationary EEG’. It is suggested that the simulator might act as a test input to digital analytical techniques for the EEG, a simulator which would enable at least a substantial part of those techniques to be compared and assessed in an objective manner. The equations necessary to implement the model are given. The program has been run on a DEC1090 computer but is suitable for any microcomputer having more than 32 kBytes of memory; the execution time required to generate a 25 s simulated EEG is in the region of 15 s.

Numerical simulation of conductive particle behaviour at the surface of a plate electrode affected by a DC corona field

The electric field in certain electrostatic devices can be modeled by a grounded plate electrode affected by a corona discharge generated by a series of parallel wires connected to a DC high-voltage supply. The system of differential equations that describe the behaviour (i.e., charging and motion) of the conductive particle in such an electric field has been numerically solved, using several simplifying assumptions. Thus, it was possible to investigate the effect of various electrical and mechanical factors on the trajectories of conductive particles. This model has been employed to study the behaviour of coalparticles in fly-ash corona separators.

Impact of African orography and the Indian summer monsoon on the low-level Somali jet

The low-level jet (LLJ) over the Indian region, which is most prominent during the monsoon (June-September) season, has been studied with a general circulation model (GCM). The role of African orography in modulating this jet is the focus of this article. The presence o African orography intensifies the cross-equatorial flow. Contrary to previous modelling Studies we find that cross-equatorial flow occurs even in the absence of African orography, though this flow is muc weaker even when the Indian monsoon rainfall is high. However, the location of the meridional jet near the equator in the Somali region is linked to the Indian monsoon rainfall rather than to the land-sea contrast over Somalia. Also, the presence of African orography, and not the strength of the Indian monsoon, controls the vertical extent of the equatorial meridional wind. In an aqua-planet simulation, the cross-equatorial flow occurs about 30 to the west of the rainfall maximum. Thus, the longitudinal location of the equatorial Somali jet depends upon the occurrence of monsoon heating, but the vertical structure of the jet is on account of the western boundary current in the atmosphere due to the East African highlands under the influence of monsoonal heat source.

Indian Ocean sea surface salinity variations in a coupled model

The variability of the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indian Ocean is studied using a 100-year control simulation of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 2.0). The monsoon-driven seasonal SSS pattern in the Indian Ocean, marked by low salinity in the east and high salinity in the west, is captured by the model. The model overestimates runoff int the Bay of Bengal due to higher rainfall over the Himalayan-Tibetan regions which drain into the Bay of Bengal through Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers. The outflow of low-salinity water from the Bay of Bengal is to strong in the model. Consequently, the model Indian Ocean SSS is about 1 less than that seen in the climatology. The seasonal Indian Ocean salt balance obtained from the model is consistent with the analysis from climatological data sets. During summer, the large freshwater input into the Bay of Bengal and its redistribution decide the spatial pattern of salinity tendency. During winter, horizontal advection is the dominant contributor to the tendency term. The interannual variability of the SSS in the Indian Ocean is about five times larger than that in coupled model simulations of the North Atlantic Ocean. Regions of large interannual standard deviations are located near river mouths in the Bay of Bengal and in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Both freshwater input into the ocean and advection of this anomalous flux are responsible for the generation of these anomalies. The model simulates 20 significant Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and during IOD years large salinity anomalies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The anomalies exist as two zonal bands: negative salinity anomalies to the north of the equator and positive to the south. The SSS anomalies for the years in which IOD is not present and for ENSO years are much weaker than during IOD years. Significant interannual SSS anomalies appear in the Indian Ocean only during IOD years.

A simulation study of the mixing, atomic flow and velocity profiles of crystalline materials during sliding

Self-contained Non-Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics (NEMD) simulations using Lennard-Jones potentials were performed to identify the origin and mechanisms of atomic scale interfacial behavior between sliding metals. The mixing sequence and velocity profiles were compared via MD simulations for three cases, viz.: sell-mated, similar and hard-softvcrystal pairs. The results showed shear instability, atomic scale mixing, and generation of eddies at the sliding interface. Vorticity at the interface suggests that atomic flow during sliding is similar to fluid flow under Kelvin-Helmholtz instability and this is supported by velocity profiles from the simulations. The initial step-function velocity profile spreads during sliding. However the velocity profile does not change much at later stages of the simulation and it eventually stops spreading. The steady state friction coefficient during simulation was monitored as a function of sliding velocity. Frictional behavior can be explained on the basis of plastic deformation and adiabatic effects. The mixing layer growth kinetics was also investigated.