Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Impact of river runoff into the ocean on Indian summer monsoon

Rivers of the world discharge about 36000 km 3 of freshwater into the ocean every year. To investigate the impact of river discharge on climate, we have carried out two 100 year simulations using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), one including the river runoff into the ocean and the other excluding it. When the river discharge is shut off, global average sea surface temperature (SST) rises by about 0.5 degrees C and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) increases by about 10% of the seasonal total with large increase in the eastern Bay of Bengal and along the west coast of India. In addition, the frequency of occurrence of La Nina-like cooling events in the equatorial Pacific increases and the correlation between ISMR and Pacific SST anomalies become stronger. The teleconnection between the SST anomalies in the Pacific and monsoon is effected via upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient and the North African-Asian Jet axis.

Translation Induction on Indian Language Corpora Using Translingual Themes from Other Languages

Identifying translations from comparable corpora is a well-known problem with several applications, e.g. dictionary creation in resource-scarce languages. Scarcity of high quality corpora, especially in Indian languages, makes this problem hard, e.g. state-of-the-art techniques achieve a mean reciprocal rank (MRR) of 0.66 for English-Italian, and a mere 0.187 for Telugu-Kannada. There exist comparable corpora in many Indian languages with other ``auxiliary'' languages. We observe that translations have many topically related words in common in the auxiliary language. To model this, we define the notion of a translingual theme, a set of topically related words from auxiliary language corpora, and present a probabilistic framework for translation induction. Extensive experiments on 35 comparable corpora using English and French as auxiliary languages show that this approach can yield dramatic improvements in performance (e.g. MRR improves by 124% to 0.419 for Telugu-Kannada). A user study on WikiTSu, a system for cross-lingual Wikipedia title suggestion that uses our approach, shows a 20% improvement in the quality of titles suggested.

Bold strategies for Indian science

When an Indian prime minister publicly admits that India has fallen behind China, it is news. Manmohan Singh's statement last January at the Indian Science Congress in Bhubaneswar that this is so with respect to scientific research, and that “India's relative position in the world of science has been declining”, has rung alarm bells. Singh was not springing anything new on Indian scientists; many of us will admit that things are not well1. Recognizing the problem is the first step towards reversing this slide.

Local and remote impacts of direct aerosol forcing on Asian monsoon

The impact of heating by black carbon aerosols on Indian summer monsoon has remained inconclusive. Some investigators have predicted that black carbon aerosols reduce monsoon rainfall while others have argued that it will increase monsoon rainfall. These conclusions have been based on local influence of aerosols on the radiative fluxes. The impact of aerosol-like heating in one region on the rainfall in a remote region has not been examined in detail. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, it has been shown that remote influence of aerosol-like heating can be as important as local influence on Indian summer monsoon. Precipitation in northern Arabian Sea and north-west Indian region increased by 16% in June to July when aerosol-like heating were present globally. The corresponding increase in precipitation due to presence of aerosol-like heating only over South Asia (local impact) and East Asia (remote impact) were 28 and 13%, respectively. This enhancement in precipitation was due to destabilization of the atmosphere in pre-monsoon season that affected subsequent convection. Moreover, pre-monsoon heating of the lower troposphere changed the circulation substantially that enabled influx of more moisture over certain regions and reduced the moist static stability of the atmosphere. It has been shown that regional aerosol heating can have large impact on the phase of upper tropospheric Rossby wave in pre-monsoon season, which acts as a primary mechanism behind teleconnection and leads to the change in precipitation during monsoon season. These results demonstrate that changes in aerosol in one region can influence the precipitation in a remote region through changes in circulation.

Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.

Hydro-mechanical characterization of Barmer 1 bentonite from Rajasthan, India

The conceptual model for deep geological disposal of high level nuclear waste (HLW) is based on multiple barrier system consisting of natural and engineered barriers. Buffer/backfill material is regarded as the most important engineered barrier in HLW repositories. Due to large swelling ability, cation adsorption capacity, and low permeability bentonite is considered as suitable buffer material in HLW repositories. Japan has identified Kunigel VI bentonite, South Korea - Kyungju bentonite, China - GMZ bentonite, Belgium - FoCa clay, Sweden - MX-80 bentonite, Spain - FEBEX bentonite and Canada - Avonseal bentonite as candidate bentonite buffer for deep geological repository program. An earlier study on Indian bentonites by one of the authors suggested that bentonite from Barmer district of Rajasthan (termed Barmer 1 bentonite), India is suited for use as buffer material in deep geological repositories. However, the hydro-mechanical properties of the Barmer 1 bentonite are unavailable. This paper characterizes Barmer 1 bentonite for hydro-mechanical properties, such as, swell pressure, saturated permeability, soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) and unconfined compression strength at different dry densities. The properties of Barmer 1 bentonite were compared with bentonite buffers reported in literature and equations for designing swell pressure and saturated permeability coefficient of bentonite buffers were arrived at. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of African orography and the Indian summer monsoon on the low-level Somali jet

The low-level jet (LLJ) over the Indian region, which is most prominent during the monsoon (June-September) season, has been studied with a general circulation model (GCM). The role of African orography in modulating this jet is the focus of this article. The presence o African orography intensifies the cross-equatorial flow. Contrary to previous modelling Studies we find that cross-equatorial flow occurs even in the absence of African orography, though this flow is muc weaker even when the Indian monsoon rainfall is high. However, the location of the meridional jet near the equator in the Somali region is linked to the Indian monsoon rainfall rather than to the land-sea contrast over Somalia. Also, the presence of African orography, and not the strength of the Indian monsoon, controls the vertical extent of the equatorial meridional wind. In an aqua-planet simulation, the cross-equatorial flow occurs about 30 to the west of the rainfall maximum. Thus, the longitudinal location of the equatorial Somali jet depends upon the occurrence of monsoon heating, but the vertical structure of the jet is on account of the western boundary current in the atmosphere due to the East African highlands under the influence of monsoonal heat source.

Behavior of the indian social wasp ropalidia-cyathiformis on a nest of separate combs (hymenoptera, vespidae)

Observations were made on a nest of Ropalidia cyathiformis consisting of three combs. The number of eggs, larvae, pupae and adults were monitored at about 3-day intervals for a 2-month period. The behaviour of the adults was observed with special reference to the proportion of time spent on each of the three combs, the proportion of time spent away from the nest site and the frequencies of dominance interactions and egg laying. The adults moved freely between the three combs suggesting that all of them and all the three combs belonged to one nest. However, most of the adults preferred combs 2 and 3 over comb 1. Of the 10 animals chosen for a detailed analysis of behaviour, seven spent varying periods of time away from the nest site and oRen brought back food or building material. Five of the 10 animals laid at least one egg each but two adults monopolized most of the egg-laying. The animals showed a variety of dominance interactions on the basis of which they have been arranged in a dominance hierarchy. The dominant individuals laid most of the eggs and spent little or no time foraging, while the subordinate individuals spent more time foraging and laid few eggs or none. It is argued that R. cyathiformis is different from R. marginata, the only other Indian social wasp whose behaviour has been studied, in being at a more primitive stage of social organization.

On the Maximum Cloud Zone and the ITCZ over Indian, Longitudes during the Southwest Monsoon

An investigation is presented of the daily variation of the maximum cloud zone (MCZ) and the 7W mb trough in the Northern Hemisphere over the Indian longitudes 70–90°E during April–October for 1973–77. It is found that during June–September there are two favorable locations for a MCZ over these longitudes–on a majority of days the MCZ is present in the monsoon zone north of 15°N, and often a secondary MCZ occurs in the equatorial region (0–10°N). The monsoon MCZ gets established by northward movement of the MCZ occurring over the equatorial Indian ocean in April and May. The secondary MCZ appears intermittently, and is characterized by long spells of persistence only when the monsoon MCZ is absent. In each of the seasons studied, the MCZ temporarily disappeared from the mean summer monsoon location (15–28°N) about four weeks after it was established near the beginning of July. It is reestablished by the northward movement of the secondary MCZ, which becomes active during the absence of the monsoon MCZ, in a manner strikingly similar to that observed in the spring to summer transition. A break in monsoon conditions prevails just prior to the temporary disappearance of the monsoon MCZ. Thus we conclude that the monsoon MCZ cannot survive for longer than a month without reestablishment by the secondary MCZ. Possible underlying mechanisms are also discussed.

Practising Western Science Outside the West: Personal Observations on the Indian Scene

Modern science, which was an indigenous product of Western culture, is now being practised in many non-Western countries. This paper discusses the peculiar social, cultural and intellectual problems which scientists of these non-Western countries face in adopting Western science in their situations, with special reference to India. It is pointed out that, in addition to money and communication, it is necessary to have a proper psychological gestalt to practise science satisfactorily. The author analyzes his experience as a physics student in India and in the United States to clarify the nature of this psychological gestalt, and to explain what makes it difficult for non-Western scientists to acquire it.

Investigations on voltages and currents in the lightning protection system of the Indian satellite launch pad-I during a stroke interception

A reliable protection against direct lightning hit is very essential for satellite launch pads. In view of this, suitable protection systems are generally employed. The evaluation of efficacy of the lightning protection schemes among others requires an accurate knowledge of the consequential potential rise at the struck point and the current injected into soil at the earth termination. The present work has made a detailed effort to deduce these quantities for the lightning protection scheme of the Indian satellite launch pad-I. A reduced scale model of the system with a frequency domain approach is employed for the experimental study. For further validation of the experimental approach, numerical simulations using numerical electromagnetic code-2 are also carried out on schemes involving single tower. The study results on the protection system show that the present design is quite safe with regard to top potential rise. It is shown that by connecting ground wires to the tower, its base current and, hence, the soil potential rise can be reduced. An evaluation of an alternate design philosophy involving insulated mast scheme is also made. The potential rise in that design is quantified and the possibility of a flashover to supporting tower is briefly looked into. The supporting tower is shown to have significant induced currents.