A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Quality Assurance and Assessment in Technical Education System: A Web Based Approach

Engineering education quality embraces the activities through which a technical institution satisfies itself that the quality of education it provides and standards it has set are appropriate and are being maintained. There is a need to develop a standardised approach to most aspects of quality assurance for engineering programmes which is sufficiently well defined to be accepted for all assessments.We have designed a Technical Educational Quality Assurance and Assessment (TEQ-AA) System, which makes use of the information on the web and analyzes the standards of the institution. With the standards as anchors for definition, the institution is clearer about its present in order to plan better for its future and enhancing the level of educational quality.The system has been tested and implemented on the technical educational Institutions in the Karnataka State which usually host their web pages for commercially advertising their technical education programs and their Institution objectives, policies, etc., for commercialization and for better reach-out to the students and faculty. This helps in assisting the students in selecting an institution for study and to assist in employment.

Self Assessment-Based Decision Making for Multiagent Cooperative Search

This paper addresses a search problem with multiple limited capability search agents in a partially connected dynamical networked environment under different information structures. A self assessment-based decision-making scheme for multiple agents is proposed that uses a modified negotiation scheme with low communication overheads. The scheme has attractive features of fast decision-making and scalability to large number of agents without increasing the complexity of the algorithm. Two models of the self assessment schemes are developed to study the effect of increase in information exchange during decision-making. Some analytical results on the maximum number of self assessment cycles, effect of increasing communication range, completeness of the algorithm, lower bound and upper bound on the search time are also obtained. The performance of the various self assessment schemes in terms of total uncertainty reduction in the search region, using different information structures is studied. It is shown that the communication requirement for self assessment scheme is almost half of the negotiation schemes and its performance is close to the optimal solution. Comparisons with different sequential search schemes are also carried out. Note to Practitioners-In the futuristic military and civilian applications such as search and rescue, surveillance, patrol, oil spill, etc., a swarm of UAVs can be deployed to carry out the mission for information collection. These UAVs have limited sensor and communication ranges. In order to enhance the performance of the mission and to complete the mission quickly, cooperation between UAVs is important. Designing cooperative search strategies for multiple UAVs with these constraints is a difficult task. Apart from this, another requirement in the hostile territory is to minimize communication while making decisions. This adds further complexity to the decision-making algorithms. In this paper, a self-assessment-based decision-making scheme, for multiple UAVs performing a search mission, is proposed. The agents make their decisions based on the information acquired through their sensors and by cooperation with neighbors. The complexity of the decision-making scheme is very low. It can arrive at decisions fast with low communication overheads, while accommodating various information structures used for increasing the fidelity of the uncertainty maps. Theoretical results proving completeness of the algorithm and the lower and upper bounds on the search time are also provided.

An ANN based approach for voltage stability assessment

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have recently been proposed as an alterative method for salving certain traditional problems in power systems where conventional techniques have not achieved the desired speed, accuracy or efficiency. This paper presents application of ANN where the aim is to achieve fast voltage stability margin assessment of power network in an energy control centre (ECC), with reduced number of appropriate inputs. L-index has been used for assessing voltage stability margin. Investigations are carried out on the influence of information encompassed in input vector and target out put vector, on the learning time and test performance of multi layer perceptron (MLP) based ANN model. LP based algorithm for voltage stability improvement, is used for generating meaningful training patterns in the normal operating range of the system. From the generated set of training patterns, appropriate training patterns are selected based on statistical correlation process, sensitivity matrix approach, contingency ranking approach and concentric relaxation method. Simulation results on a 24 bus EHV system, 30 bus modified IEEE system, and a 82 bus Indian power network are presented for illustration purposes.

Novel algorithm for online voltage stability assessment based on feed forward neural network

This paper presents an artificial feed forward neural network (FFNN) approach for the assessment of power system voltage stability. A novel approach based on the input-output relation between real and reactive power, as well as voltage vectors for generators and load buses is used to train the neural net (NN). The input properties of the feed forward network are generated from offline training data with various simulated loading conditions using a conventional voltage stability algorithm based on the L-index. The neural network is trained for the L-index output as the target vector for each of the system loads. Two separate trained NN, corresponding to normal loading and contingency, are investigated on the 367 node practical power system network. The performance of the trained artificial neural network (ANN) is also investigated on the system under various voltage stability assessment conditions. As compared to the computationally intensive benchmark conventional software, near accurate results in the value of L-index and thus the voltage profile were obtained. Proposed algorithm is fast, robust and accurate and can be used online for predicting the L-indices of all the power system buses. The proposed ANN approach is also shown to be effective and computationally feasible in voltage stability assessment as well as potential enhancements within an overall energy management system in order to determining local and global stability indices

Assessment of seismic hazard and liquefaction potential of Gujarat based on probabilistic approaches

Gujarat is one of the fastest-growing states of India with high industrial activities coming up in major cities of the state. It is indispensable to analyse seismic hazard as the region is considered to be most seismically active in stable continental region of India. The Bhuj earthquake of 2001 has caused extensive damage in terms of causality and economic loss. In the present study, the seismic hazard of Gujarat evaluated using a probabilistic approach with the use of logic tree framework that minimizes the uncertainties in hazard assessment. The peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values were evaluated for 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. Two important geotechnical effects of earthquakes, site amplification and liquefaction, are also evaluated, considering site characterization based on site classes. The liquefaction return period for the entire state of Gujarat is evaluated using a performance-based approach. The maps of PHA and PGA values prepared in this study are very useful for seismic hazard mitigation of the region in future.

Structure, tensile properties and cytotoxicity assessment of sebacic acid based biodegradable polyesters with ricinoleic acid

A new family of ricinoleic acid based polyesters was synthesized using catalyst free melt-condensation polymerization with sebacic acid, citric acid, mannitol and ricinoleic acid as precursors. The use of FT-IR and NMR characterisation techniques confirms the presence of ester linkages in the as-synthesized polymers. Depending on the precursor combination, their relative amount and the degree of curing, a broad range of elastic modulus (22-327 MPa) and tensile strength (0.7-12.7 MPa) can be obtained in the newly synthesized biopolymers. The polymers show rubbery behaviour at a physiological temperature (37 degrees C) and the contact angles of the synthesized polymers fall in the range of 42 degrees to 71 degrees, making them ideal substrates to study delivery of drugs through polymer scaffolds. The cytocompatibility assessment of the cured polymers confirmed good cell attachment and growth of smooth muscle cells (C2C12 myoblast cells). Importantly, oriented cell growth was observed after culturing myoblast cells for 3 days. The in vitro degradation in PBS indicates that the mild cured polymers follow a first order reaction kinetics and have degradation rate constants in the range of 0.009-0.038 h(-1), depending on the relative proportions of monomers. Overall, the results of our study indicate that the physical properties can be tailored by varying the composition of the monomers and curing conditions in the newly developed polyesters. Hence, they may be used as potential substrates for tissue engineering scaffolds and for localized drug delivery.

Spectral-spatial MODIS image analysis using swarm intelligence algorithms and region based segmentation for flood assessment

This paper discusses an approach for river mapping and flood evaluation based on multi-temporal time-series analysis of satellite images utilizing pixel spectral information for image clustering and region based segmentation for extracting water covered regions. MODIS satellite images are analyzed at two stages: before flood and during flood. Multi-temporal MODIS images are processed in two steps. In the first step, clustering algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are used to distinguish the water regions from the non-water based on spectral information. These algorithms are chosen since they are quite efficient in solving multi-modal optimization problems. These classified images are then segmented using spatial features of the water region to extract the river. From the results obtained, we evaluate the performance of the methods and conclude that incorporating region based image segmentation along with clustering algorithms provides accurate and reliable approach for the extraction of water covered region.

Naphthalene Carbohydrazone Based Dizinc(II) Chemosensor for a Pyrophosphate Ion and Its DNA Assessment Application in Polymerase Chain Reaction Products

A new naphthalene carbohydrazone based dizinc(II) complex has been synthesized and investigated to act as a highly selective fluorescence and visual sensor for a pyrophosphate ion with a quite low detection limit of 155 ppb; this has also been used to detect the pyrophosphate ion released from polymerase-chain-reaction.

Approach for the use of MSW settlement predictions in the assessment of landfill capacity based on reliability analysis

In the analysis and design of municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills, there are many uncertainties associated with the properties of MSW during and after MSW placement. Several studies are performed involving different laboratory and field tests to understand the complex behavior and properties of MSW, and based on these studies, different models are proposed for the analysis of time dependent settlement response of MSW. For the analysis of MSW settlement, it is very important to account for the variability of model parameters that reflect different processes such as primary compression under loading, mechanical creep and biodegradation. In this paper, regression equations based on response surface method (RSM) are used to represent the complex behavior of MSW using a newly developed constitutive model. An approach to assess landfill capacities and develop landfill closure plans based on prediction of landfill settlements is proposed. The variability associated with model parameters relating to primary compression, mechanical creep and biodegradation are used to examine their influence on MSW settlement using reliability analysis framework and influence of various parameters on the settlement of MSW are estimated through sensitivity analysis. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated cell viability assessment using a microfluidics based portable imaging flow analyzer

In this work, we report a system-level integration of portable microscopy and microfluidics for the realization of optofluidic imaging flow analyzer with a throughput of 450 cells/s. With the use of a cellphone augmented with off-the-shelf optical components and custom designed microfluidics, we demonstrate a portable optofluidic imaging flow analyzer. A multiple microfluidic channel geometry was employed to demonstrate the enhancement of throughput in the context of low frame-rate imaging systems. Using the cell-phone based digital imaging flow analyzer, we have imaged yeast cells present in a suspension. By digitally processing the recorded videos of the flow stream on the cellphone, we demonstrated an automated cell viability assessment of the yeast cell population. In addition, we also demonstrate the suitability of the system for blood cell counting. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

Macro-Level Assessment of Seismically Induced Landslide Hazard for the State of Sikkim, India Based On GIS Technique

This paper presents a macro-level seismic landslide hazard assessment for the entire state of Sikkim, India, based on the Newmark's methodology. The slope map of Sikkim was derived from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM). Seismic shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at bedrock level was estimated from deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), considering point source model. Peak horizontal acceleration at the surface level for the study area was estimated based on nonlinear site amplification technique, considering B-type NEHRP site class. The PHA at surface was considered to induce driving forces on slopes, thus causing landslides. Knowing the surface level PHA and slope angle, the seismic landslide hazard assessment for each grid point was carried out using Newmark's analysis. The critical static factor of safety required to resist landslide for the PHA (obtained from deterministic analysis) was evaluated and its spatial variation throughout the study area is presented. For any slope in the study area, if the in-situ (available) static factor of safety is greater than the static factor of safety required to resist landslide as predicted in the present study, that slope is considered to be safe.

Seismotectonics of the April-May 2015 Nepal earthquakes: An assessment based on the aftershock patterns, surface effects and deformational characteristics

Occurrence of the April 25, 2015 (Mw 7.8) earthquake near Gorkha, central Nepal, and another one that followed on May 12 (Mw 7.3), located similar to 140 km to its east, provides an exceptional opportunity to understand some new facets of Himalayan earthquakes. Here we attempt to assess the seismotectonics of these earthquakes based on the deformational field generated by these events, along with the spatial and temporal characteristics of their aftershocks. When integrated with some of the post-earthquake field observations, including the localization of damage and surface deformation, it became obvious that although the mainshock slip was mostly limited to the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the rupture did not propagate to the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Field evidence, supported by the available InSAR imagery of the deformation field, suggests that a component of slip could have emerged through a previously identified out-of-sequence thrust/active thrust in the region that parallels the Main Central Thrust (MCT), known in the literature as a co-linear physiographic transitional zone called PT2. Termination of the first rupture, triggering of the second large earthquake, and distribution of aftershocks are also spatially constrained by the eastern extremity of PT2. Mechanism of the 2015 sequence demonstrates that the out-of-sequence thrusts may accommodate part of the slip, an aspect that needs to be considered in the current understanding of the mechanism of earthquakes originating on the MHT. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.