Climate change and Indian forests

An assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the global dynamic vegetation model IBIS for A1B scenario is conducted for short-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) periods. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modelling, vulnerable forested regions of India have been identified to assist in planning adaptation interventions. The assessment of climate impacts showed that at the national level, about 45% of the forested grids is projected to undergo change. Vulnerability assessment showed that such vulnerable forested grids are spread across India. However, their concentration is higher in the upper Himalayan stretches, parts of Central India, northern Western Ghats and the Eastern Ghats. In contrast, the northeastern forests, southern Western Ghats and the forested regions of eastern India are estimated to be the least vulnerable. Low tree density, low biodiversity status as well as higher levels of fragmentation, in addition to climate change, contribute to the vulnerability of these forests. The mountainous forests (sub-alpine and alpine forest, the Himalayan dry temperate forest and the Himalayan moist temperate forest) are susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. This is because climate change is predicted to be larger for regions that have greater elevations.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

Decoupling of diffusion from viscosity: Difference scenario for translational and rotational motions

Recent experiments have indicated a dramatically different viscosity dependence of the translational and the rotational diffusion coefficients in a supercooled liquid as the glass transition temperature is approached from above. While the translational motion seems to be decoupled from the rising viscosity (eta), the rotational motion seems to remain firmly coupled to eta. In order to understand the microscopic origin of this behavior, we have carried nut detailed theoretical calculations of both the quantities by using a self-consistent mode-coupling theory (MCT). it is found that when the size of the solute is same as that of the solvent molecules, the conventional MCT fails to predict the observed decoupling. The solvent inhomogeneity is found to play a decisive role in determining the decoupling. The difference in the viscosity dependence between rotation and translational diffusion coefficient is discussed.

On the Compatibility of a Flux Transport Dynamo with a Fast Tachocline Scenario

The compatibility of the fast-tachocline scenario with a flux-transport dynamo model is explored. We employ a flux-transport dynamo model coupled with simple feedback formulae relating the thickness of the tachocline to the amplitude of the magnetic field or to the Maxwell stress. The dynamo model is found to be robust against the nonlinearity introduced by this simplified fast-tachocline mechanism. Solar-like butterfly diagrams are found to persist and, even without any parameter fitting, the overall thickness of the tachocline is well within the range admitted by helioseismic constraints. In the most realistic case of a time-and latitude-dependent tachocline thickness linked to the value of the Maxwell stress, both the thickness and its latitudinal dependence are in excellent agreement with seismic results. In nonparametric models, cycle-related temporal variations in tachocline thickness are somewhat larger than admitted by helioseismic constraints; we find, however, that introducing a further parameter into our feedback formula readily allows further fine tuning of the thickness variations.

A POSSIBLE EVOLUTIONARY SCENARIO OF HIGHLY MAGNETIZED SUPER-CHANDRASEKHAR WHITE DWARFS: PROGENITORS OF PECULIAR TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

Several recently discovered peculiar Type Ia supernovae seem to demand an altogether new formation theory that might help explain the puzzling dissimilarities between them and the standard Type Ia supernovae. The most striking aspect of the observational analysis is the necessity of invoking super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses similar to 2.1-2.8 M-circle dot, M-circle dot being the mass of Sun, as their most probable progenitors. Strongly magnetized white dwarfs having super-Chandrasekhar masses have already been established as potential candidates for the progenitors of peculiar Type Ia supernovae. Owing to the Landau quantization of the underlying electron degenerate gas, theoretical results yielded the observationally inferred mass range. Here, we sketch a possible evolutionary scenario by which super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs could be formed by accretion on to a commonly observed magnetized white dwarf, invoking the phenomenon of flux freezing. This opens multiple possible evolution scenarios ending in supernova explosions of super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses within the range stated above. We point out that our proposal has observational support, such as the recent discovery of a large number of magnetized white dwarfs by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.

Decentralized demand-supply matching using community microgrids and consumer demand response: A scenario analysis

Developing countries constantly face the challenge of reliably matching electricity supply to increasing consumer demand. The traditional policy decisions of increasing supply and reducing demand centrally, by building new power plants and/or load shedding, have been insufficient. Locally installed microgrids along with consumer demand response can be suitable decentralized options to augment the centralized grid based systems and plug the demand-supply gap. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) develop a framework to identify the appropriate decentralized energy options for demand supply matching within a community, and, (2) determine which of these options can suitably plug the existing demand-supply gap at varying levels of grid unavailability. A scenario analysis framework is developed to identify and assess the impact of different decentralized energy options at a community level and demonstrated for a typical urban residential community Vijayanagar, Bangalore in India. A combination of LPG based CHP microgrid and proactive demand response by the community is the appropriate option that enables the Vijayanagar community to meet its energy needs 24/7 in a reliable, cost-effective manner. The paper concludes with an enumeration of the barriers and feasible strategies for the implementation of community microgrids in India based on stakeholder inputs. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Biomass to liquid transportation fuel via Fischer Tropsch synthesis - Technology review and current scenario

Current global energy scenario and the environmental deterioration aspect motivates substituting fossil fuel with a renewable energy resource - especially transport fuel. This paper reviews the current status of trending biomass to liquid (BTL) conversion processes and focuses on the technological developments in Fischer Tropsch (FT) process. FT catalysts in use, and recent understanding of FT kinetics are explored. Liquid fuels produced via FT process from biomass derived syngas promises an attractive, clean, carbon neutral and sustainable energy source for the transportation sector. Performance of the FT process with various catalysts, operating conditions and its influence on the FT products are also presented. Experience from large scale commercial installations of FT plants, primarily utilizing coal based gasifiers, are discussed. Though biomass gasification plants exist for power generation via gas engines with power output of about 2 MWe; there are only a few equivalent sized FT plants for biomass derived syngas. This paper discusses the recent developments in conversion of biomass to liquid (BTL) transportation fuels via FT reaction and worldwide attempts to commercialize this process. All the data presented and analysed here have been consolidated from research experiences at laboratory scale as well as from industrial systems. Economic aspects of BTL are reviewed and compared. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Status of the 98-125 GeV Higgs bosons scenario with updated LHC-8 data

In the context of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM), we discuss the possibility of the lightest Higgs boson with mass M-h = 98 GeV to be consistent with the 2.3 sigma excess observed at the LEP in the decay mode e(+)e(-) -> Zh, with h -> b (b) over bar. In the same region of the MSSM parameter space, the heavier Higgs boson (H) with mass M-H similar to 125 GeV is required to be consistent with the latest data on Higgs coupling measurements at the end of the 7 + 8 TeV LHC run with 25 fb(-1) of data. While scanning the MSSM parameter space, we impose constraints coming from flavor physics, relic density of the cold dark matter as well as direct dark matter searches. We study the possibility of observing this light Higgs boson in vector boson fusion process and associated production with W/Z-boson at the high luminosity (3000 fb(-1)) run of the 14 TeV LHC. Our analysis shows that this scenario can hardly be ruled out even at the high luminosity run of the LHC. However, the precise measurement of the Higgs signal strength ratios can play a major role to distinguish this scenario from the canonical MSSM one.