Modern Portfolio Theory Applied to Electricity Resource Planning

To meet electricity demand, electric utilities develop growth strategies for generation, transmission, and distributions systems. For a long time those strategies have been developed by applying least-cost methodology, in which the cheapest stand-alone resources are simply added, instead of analyzing complete portfolios. As a consequence, least-cost methodology is biased in favor of fossil fuel-based technologies, completely ignoring the benefits of adding non-fossil fuel technologies to generation portfolios, especially renewable energies. For this reason, this thesis introduces modern portfolio theory (MPT) to gain a more profound insight into a generation portfolio’s performance using generation cost and risk metrics. We discuss all necessary assumptions and modifications to this finance technique for its application within power systems planning, and we present a real case of analysis. Finally, the results of this thesis are summarized, pointing out the main benefits and the scope of this new tool in the context of electricity generation planning.

Sense-making in theory and practice: a metatheoretical foundation and application for health information seeking

This thesis attempts to provide deeper historical and theoretical grounding for sense-making, thereby illustrating its applicability to practical information seeking research. In Chapter One I trace the philosophical origins of Brenda Dervin’s theory known as “sense making,” reaching beyond current scholarship that locates the origins of sense-making in twentieth-century Phenomenology and Communication theory and find its rich ontological, epistemological, and etymological heritage that dates back to the Pre-Socratics. After exploring sense-making’s Greek roots, I examine sense-making’s philosophical undercurrents found in Hegel’s Phenomenology of Spirit (1807), where he also returns to the simplicity of the Greeks for his concept of sense. With Chapter Two I explore sense-making methodology and find, in light of the Greek and Hegelian dialectic, a dialogical bridge connecting sense-making’s theory with pragmatic uses. This bridge between Dervin’s situation and use occupies a distinct position in sense-making theory. Moreover, building upon Brenda Dervin’s model of sense-making, I use her metaphors of gap and bridge analogy to discuss the dialectic and dialogic components of sense making. The purpose of Chapter Three is pragmatic – to gain insight into the online information-seeking needs, experiences, and motivation of first-degree relatives (FDRs) of breast cancer survivors through the lens of sense-making. This research analyses four questions: 1) information-seeking behavior among FDRs of cancer survivors compared to survivors and to undiagnosed, non-related online cancer information seekers in the general population, 2) types of and places where information is sought, 3) barriers or gaps and satisfaction rates FDRs face in their cancer information quest, and 4) types and degrees of cancer information and resources FDRs want and use in their information search for themselves and other family members. An online survey instrument designed to investigate these questions was developed and pilot tested. Via an email communication, the Susan Love Breast Cancer Research Foundation distributed 322,000 invitations to its membership to complete the survey, and from March 24th to April 5th 10,692 women agreed to take the survey with 8,804 volunteers actually completing survey responses. Of the 8,804 surveys, 95% of FDRs have searched for cancer information online, and 84% of FDRs use the Internet as a sense-making tool for additional information they have received from doctors or nurses. FDRs report needing much more information than either survivors or family/friends in ten out of fifteen categories related to breast and ovarian cancer. When searching for cancer information online, FDRs also rank highest in several of sense-making’s emotional levels: uncertainty, confusion, frustration, doubt, and disappointment than do either survivors or friends and family. The sense-making process has existed in theory and praxis since the early Greeks. In applying sense–making’s theory to a contemporary problem, the survey reveals unaddressed situations and gaps of FDRs’ information search process. FDRs are a highly motivated group of online information seekers whose needs are largely unaddressed as a result of gaps in available online information targeted to address their specific needs. Since FDRs represent a quarter of the population, further research addressing their specific online information needs and experiences is necessary.

Nietzsche's orphans: music and the search for unity in revolutionary Russia, 1905-1921

At the dawn of the twentieth century, Imperial Russia was in the throes of immense social, political and cultural upheaval. The effects of rapid industrialization, rising capitalism and urbanization, as well as the trauma wrought by revolution and war, reverberated through all levels of society and every cultural sphere. In the aftermath of the 1905 revolution, amid a growing sense of panic over the chaos and divisions emerging in modern life, a portion of Russian educated society (obshchestvennost’) looked to the transformative and unifying power of music as a means of salvation from the personal, social and intellectual divisions of the contemporary world. Transcending professional divisions, these “orphans of Nietzsche” comprised a distinct aesthetic group within educated Russian society. While lacking a common political, religious or national outlook, these philosophers, poets, musicians and other educated members of the upper and middle strata were bound together by their shared image of music’s unifying power, itself built upon a synthesis of Russian and European ideas. They yearned for a “musical Orpheus,” a composer capable of restoring wholeness to society through his music. My dissertation is a study in what I call “musical metaphysics,” an examination of the creation, development, crisis and ultimate failure of this Orphic worldview. To begin, I examine the institutional foundations of musical life in late Imperial Russia, as well as the explosion of cultural life in the aftermath of the 1905 Revolution, a vibrant social context which nourished the formation of musical metaphysics. From here, I assess the intellectual basis upon which musical metaphysics rested: central concepts (music, life-transformation, theurgy, unity, genius, nation), as well as the philosophical heritage of Nietzsche and the Christian thinkers Vladimir Solov’ev, Aleksei Khomiakov, Ivan Kireevskii and Lev Tolstoi. Nietzsche’s orphans’ struggle to reconcile an amoral view of reality with a deeply felt sense of religious purpose gave rise to neo-Slavophile interpretations of history, in which the Russian nation (narod) was singled out as the savior of humanity from the materialism of modern life. This nationalizing tendency existed uneasily within the framework of the multi-ethnic empire. From broad social and cultural trends, I turn to detailed analysis of three of Moscow’s most admired contemporary composers, whose individual creative voices intersected with broader social concerns. The music of Aleksandr Scriabin (1871-1915) was associated with images of universal historical progress. Nikolai Medtner (1879-1951) embodied an “Imperial” worldview, in which musical style was imbued with an eternal significance which transcended the divisions of nation. The compositions of Sergei Rachmaninoff (1873-1943) were seen as the expression of a Russian “national” voice. Heightened nationalist sentiment and the impact of the Great War spelled the doom of this musical worldview. Music became an increasingly nationalized sphere within which earlier, Imperial definitions of belonging grew ever more problematic. As the Germanic heritage upon which their vision was partially based came under attack, Nietzsche’s orphans found themselves ever more divided and alienated from society as a whole. Music’s inability to physically transform the world ultimately came to symbolize the failure of Russia’s educated strata to effectively deal with the pressures of a modernizing society. In the aftermath of the 1917 revolutions, music was transformed from a symbol of active, unifying power into a space of memory, a means of commemorating, reinterpreting, and idealizing the lost world of Imperial Russia itself.

A pilot study on the productivity and behavior of the gestating sow housed in a flex stall

Animal welfare is a controversial topic in modern animal agriculture, partly because it generates interest from both the scientific community and the general public. The housing of gestating sows, particularly individual housing, is one of the most critical concerns in farm animal welfare. We hypothesize that the physical size of the standard gestation stall may limit movement and evoke demands and challenges on the sow to affect the physiological and psychological well-being of the individually housed sow. Thus, improvements in the design of the individual gestation stall system that allow more freedom to move, such as increasing stall width or designing a stall that could accommodate the changing size of the pregnant sow, may improve sow welfare. The objective of this pilot study was to evaluate the effects of a width adjustable stall (FLEX) on productivity and behavior of dry sows. The experiment consisted of 3 replications (block 1, n=4 sows; block 2, n=4 sows; block 3, n=8 sows), and multi-parious sows were allotted to either a FLEX stall or standard gestation stall for 1 gestation period. Sow mid-girth (top of the back to bottom of the udder) was measured 5-6 times throughout gestation to determine the best time points for FLEX stall width expansions. FLEX stall width was adjusted according to mid-girth measurements, and expanded to achieve an additional 2 cm of space between the bottom of the sow’s udder and floor of the stall so that sows could lie in full lateral recumbency without touching the sides of the stall. Productivity data recorded included: sow body weight (BW) and BW gain, number of piglets born and born alive, proportions of piglets stillborn, mummified, lost between birth and weaning, and weaned, and litter and mean piglet birth BW, weaning BW, and average BW gain from birth-to-weaning. Lesions were recorded on d 21 and d 111 of gestation. Sub-pilot behavior data were observed and registered for replicate 1 sows using continuous video-records for the l2 hour lights on period (period 1, 0600-1000; period 2, 1000-1400; period 3, 1400-1800) prior FLEX stall adjustment and 12 hour lights on period post adjustment on d 21, 22, 23, 43, 44, 45, 93, 94, 95. A randomized complete block design with a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement for treatments was used to analyze sow productivity and performance traits. Data were analyzed using the Mixed Models procedure of SAS. A preliminary analysis of data means and numerical trends was used to analyze sow behavior measurements. Sows housed in a FLEX stall had more (P < 0.05) total born and a tendency for more piglets born alive (P = 0.06) than sows housed in a standard stall. Sow body weight also tended to be higher (P = 0.06) for sows housed in a FLEX stall compared to sows housed in a standard stall. There were numerical trends for mean durations of sit, lay, lay (OUT), and eat behaviors to be greater for sows housed in a FLEX stall compared with sows housed in a standard stall. The mean duration of lay (IN) behavior tended to be numerically less for sows housed in a FLEX stall compared with sows housed in a standard stall. There were numerical trends for the mean durations of stand and drink behaviors to be greater for sows housed in a standard stall compared with sows housed in a FLEX stall. The mean frequencies of postural changes and mean durations of oral-nasal-facial and sham-chew behaviors were numerically similar between types of gestation stall. Mean durations and numerical trends indicate that time of day influenced all of the behaviors assessed in this study. The results of this pilot study indicate that the adjustable FLEX stall may affect sow productivity and behavior differently than the standard gestation stall, and thus potentially improve sow well-being. Future research should continue to compare the new FLEX stall design to current housing systems in use and examine physiological traits and immune status in addition to behavioral and productivity traits to assess the effects that this housing system has on the overall welfare of the gestating sow.