Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Solid-liquid interactions in microscale structures and devices

Liquid-solid interactions become important as dimensions approach mciro/nano-scale. This dissertation focuses on liquid-solid interactions in two distinct applications: capillary driven self-assembly of thin foils into 3D structures, and droplet wetting of hydrophobic micropatterned surfaces. The phenomenon of self-assembly of complex structures is common in biological systems. Examples include self-assembly of proteins into macromolecular structures and self-assembly of lipid bilayer membranes. The principles governing this phenomenon have been applied to induce self-assembly of millimeter scale Si thin films into spherical and other 3D structures, which are then integrated into light-trapping photovoltaic (PV) devices. Motivated by this application, we present a generalized analytical study of the self-folding of thin plates into deterministic 3D shapes, through fluid-solid interactions, to be used as PV devices. This study consists of developing a model using beam theory, which incorporates the two competing components — a capillary force that promotes folding and the bending rigidity of the foil that resists folding into a 3D structure. Through an equivalence argument of thin foils of different geometry, an effective folding parameter, which uniquely characterizes the driving force for folding, has been identified. A criterion for spontaneous folding of an arbitrarily shaped 2D foil, based on the effective folding parameter, is thus established. Measurements from experiments using different materials and predictions from the model match well, validating the assumptions used in the analysis. As an alternative to the mechanics model approach, the minimization of the total free energy is employed to investigate the interactions between a fluid droplet and a flexible thin film. A 2D energy functional is proposed, comprising the surface energy of the fluid, bending energy of the thin film and gravitational energy of the fluid. Through simulations with Surface Evolver, the shapes of the droplet and the thin film at equilibrium are obtained. A critical thin film length necessary for complete enclosure of the fluid droplet, and hence successful self-assembly into a PV device, is determined and compared with the experimental results and mechanics model predictions. The results from the modeling and energy approaches and the experiments are all consistent. Superhydrophobic surfaces, which have unique properties including self-cleaning and water repelling are desired in many applications. One excellent example in nature is the lotus leaf. To fabricate these surfaces, well designed micro/nano- surface structures are often employed. In this research, we fabricate superhydrophobic micropatterned Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) surfaces composed of micropillars of various sizes and arrangements by means of soft lithography. Both anisotropic surfaces, consisting of parallel grooves and cylindrical pillars in rectangular lattices, and isotropic surfaces, consisting of cylindrical pillars in square and hexagonal lattices, are considered. A novel technique is proposed to image the contact line (CL) of the droplet on the hydrophobic surface. This technique provides a new approach to distinguish between partial and complete wetting. The contact area between droplet and microtextured surface is then measured for a droplet in the Cassie state, which is a state of partial wetting. The results show that although the droplet is in the Cassie state, the contact area does not necessarily follow Cassie model predictions. Moreover, the CL is not circular, and is affected by the micropatterns, in both isotropic and anisotropic cases. Thus, it is suggested that along with the contact angle — the typical parameter reported in literature quantifying wetting, the size and shape of the contact area should also be presented. This technique is employed to investigate the evolution of the CL on a hydrophobic micropatterned surface in the cases of: a single droplet impacting the micropatterned surface, two droplets coalescing on micropillars, and a receding droplet resting on the micropatterned surface. Another parameter which quantifies hydrophobicity is the contact angle hysteresis (CAH), which indicates the resistance of the surface to the sliding of a droplet with a given volume. The conventional methods of using advancing and receding angles or tilting stage to measure the resistance of the micropatterned surface are indirect, without mentioning the inaccuracy due to the discrete and stepwise motion of the CL on micropillars. A micronewton force sensor is utilized to directly measure the resisting force by dragging a droplet on a microtextured surface. Together with the proposed imaging technique, the evolution of the CL during sliding is also explored. It is found that, at the onset of sliding, the CL behaves as a linear elastic solid with a constant stiffness. Afterwards, the force first increases and then decreases and reaches a steady state, accompanied with periodic oscillations due to regular pinning and depinning of the CL. Both the maximum and steady state forces are primarily dependent on area fractions of the micropatterned surfaces in our experiment. The resisting force is found to be proportional to the number of pillars which pin the CL at the trailing edge, validating the assumption that the resistance mainly arises from the CL pinning at the trailing edge. In each pinning-and-depinning cycle during the steady state, the CL also shows linear elastic behavior but with a lower stiffness. The force variation and energy dissipation involved can also be determined. This novel method of measuring the resistance of the micropatterned surface elucidates the dependence on CL pinning and provides more insight into the mechanisms of CAH.