Exact Solution of Bayes and Minimax Change-Detection Problems

The challenge of detecting a change in the distribution of data is a sequential decision problem that is relevant to many engineering solutions, including quality control and machine and process monitoring. This dissertation develops techniques for exact solution of change-detection problems with discrete time and discrete observations. Change-detection problems are classified as Bayes or minimax based on the availability of information on the change-time distribution. A Bayes optimal solution uses prior information about the distribution of the change time to minimize the expected cost, whereas a minimax optimal solution minimizes the cost under the worst-case change-time distribution. Both types of problems are addressed. The most important result of the dissertation is the development of a polynomial-time algorithm for the solution of important classes of Markov Bayes change-detection problems. Existing techniques for epsilon-exact solution of partially observable Markov decision processes have complexity exponential in the number of observation symbols. A new algorithm, called constellation induction, exploits the concavity and Lipschitz continuity of the value function, and has complexity polynomial in the number of observation symbols. It is shown that change-detection problems with a geometric change-time distribution and identically- and independently-distributed observations before and after the change are solvable in polynomial time. Also, change-detection problems on hidden Markov models with a fixed number of recurrent states are solvable in polynomial time. A detailed implementation and analysis of the constellation-induction algorithm are provided. Exact solution methods are also established for several types of minimax change-detection problems. Finite-horizon problems with arbitrary observation distributions are modeled as extensive-form games and solved using linear programs. Infinite-horizon problems with linear penalty for detection delay and identically- and independently-distributed observations can be solved in polynomial time via epsilon-optimal parameterization of a cumulative-sum procedure. Finally, the properties of policies for change-detection problems are described and analyzed. Simple classes of formal languages are shown to be sufficient for epsilon-exact solution of change-detection problems, and methods for finding minimally sized policy representations are described.

Multirobot Tethering for Localization and Control

Particle filtering has proven to be an effective localization method for wheeled autonomous vehicles. For a given map, a sensor model, and observations, occasions arise where the vehicle could equally likely be in many locations of the map. Because particle filtering algorithms may generate low confidence pose estimates under these conditions, more robust localization strategies are required to produce reliable pose estimates. This becomes more critical if the state estimate is an integral part of system control. We investigate the use of particle filter estimation techniques on a hovercraft vehicle. The marginally stable dynamics of a hovercraft require reliable state estimates for proper stability and control. We use the Monte Carlo localization method, which implements a particle filter in a recursive state estimate algorithm. An H-infinity controller, designed to accommodate the latency inherent in our state estimation, provides stability and controllability to the hovercraft. In order to eliminate the low confidence estimates produced in certain environments, a multirobot system is designed to introduce mobile environment features. By tracking and controlling the secondary robot, we can position the mobile feature throughout the environment to ensure a high confidence estimate, thus maintaining stability in the system. A laser rangefinder is the sensor the hovercraft uses to track the secondary robot, observe the environment, and facilitate successful localization and stability in motion.