Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

Organizational responses to technological discontinuities: the case of the American College of Radiology (ACR)

A long history of organizational research has shown that organizations are affected significantly by changes in technology. Scholars have given particular attention to the effects of so-called disruptive or discontinuous technological changes. Studies have repeatedly shown that established, incumbent organizations tend to suffer deep performance declines (and even complete demise) in the face of such changes, and researchers have devoted much attention to identifying the organizational conditions and processes that are responsible for this persistent and widespread pattern of adaptation failure. This dissertation, which examines the response of the American College of Radiology (ACR) to the emergence of nuclear magnetic resonance imaging technology (NMR), aims to contribute to this well-established research tradition in three distinct and important ways. First, it focuses on a fundamentally different type of organization, a professional association, rather than the technology producers examined in most prior research. Although technologies are well known to be embedded in “communities” that include technology producers, suppliers, customers, governmental entities, professional societies, and other entities, most prior research has focused on the responses and ultimate fate of producers alone. Little if any research has explored the responses of professional organizations in particular. Second, the study employs a sophisticated process methodology that identifies the individual events that make up the organization’s response to technological change, as well as the overall sequence through which these events unfold. This process approach contrasts sharply with the variance models used in most previous studies and offers the promise of developing knowledge about how adaptation ultimately unfolds (or fails to). Finally, the project also contributes significantly through its exploration of an apparently successful case of adaptation to technological change. Though nuclear magnetic resonance imaging posed a serious threat to the ACR and its members, this threat appears to have been successfully managed and overcome. Although the unique nature of the organization and the technology under study place some important limits on the generalizablity of this research, its findings nonetheless provide some important basic insights about the process through which social organizations can successfully adapt to discontinuous technological changes. These insights, which may also be of substantial relevance to technology producer organizations, will also be elaborated.

Paths to peace: conflict management trajectories in militarized interstate disputes

When multiple third-parties (states, coalitions, and international organizations) intervene in the same conflict, do their efforts inform one another? Anecdotal evidence suggests such a possibility, but research to date has not attempted to model this interdependence directly. The current project breaks with that tradition. In particular, it proposes three competing explanations of how previous intervention efforts affect current intervention decisions: a cost model (and a variant on it, a limited commitments model), a learning model, and a random model. After using a series of Markov transition (regime-switching) models to evaluate conflict management behavior within militarized interstate disputes in the 1946-2001 period, this study concludes that third-party intervention efforts inform one another. More specifically, third-parties examine previous efforts and balance their desire to manage conflict with their need to minimize intervention costs (the cost and limited commitments models). As a result, third-parties intervene regularly using verbal pleas and mediation, but rely significantly less frequently on legal, administrative, or peace operations strategies. This empirical threshold to the intervention costs that third-parties are willing to bear has strong theoretical foundations and holds across different time periods and third-party actors. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that the first third-party to intervene in a conflict is most likely to use a strategy designed to help the disputants work toward a resolution of their dispute. After this initial intervention, the level of third-party involvement declines and often devolves into a series of verbal pleas for peace. Such findings cumulatively suggest that disputants hold the key to effective conflict management. If the disputants adopt and maintain an extreme bargaining position or fail to encourage third-parties to accept greater intervention costs, their dispute will receive little more than verbal pleas for negotiations and peace.