Generalised regression estimation for domain class frequencies

This study examines the properties of Generalised Regression (GREG) estimators for domain class frequencies and proportions. The family of GREG estimators forms the class of design-based model-assisted estimators. All GREG estimators utilise auxiliary information via modelling. The classic GREG estimator with a linear fixed effects assisting model (GREG-lin) is one example. But when estimating class frequencies, the study variable is binary or polytomous. Therefore logistic-type assisting models (e.g. logistic or probit model) should be preferred over the linear one. However, other GREG estimators than GREG-lin are rarely used, and knowledge about their properties is limited. This study examines the properties of L-GREG estimators, which are GREG estimators with fixed-effects logistic-type models. Three research questions are addressed. First, I study whether and when L-GREG estimators are more accurate than GREG-lin. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo experiments which cover both equal and unequal probability sampling designs and a wide variety of model formulations show that in standard situations, the difference between L-GREG and GREG-lin is small. But in the case of a strong assisting model, two interesting situations arise: if the domain sample size is reasonably large, L-GREG is more accurate than GREG-lin, and if the domain sample size is very small, estimation of assisting model parameters may be inaccurate, resulting in bias for L-GREG. Second, I study variance estimation for the L-GREG estimators. The standard variance estimator (S) for all GREG estimators resembles the Sen-Yates-Grundy variance estimator, but it is a double sum of prediction errors, not of the observed values of the study variable. Monte Carlo experiments show that S underestimates the variance of L-GREG especially if the domain sample size is minor, or if the assisting model is strong. Third, since the standard variance estimator S often fails for the L-GREG estimators, I propose a new augmented variance estimator (A). The difference between S and the new estimator A is that the latter takes into account the difference between the sample fit model and the census fit model. In Monte Carlo experiments, the new estimator A outperformed the standard estimator S in terms of bias, root mean square error and coverage rate. Thus the new estimator provides a good alternative to the standard estimator.

Evidence-based perspective on CP rehabilitation : Reviews on physiotherapy, physiotherapy-related motor-based interventions and orthotic devices

This thesis utilises an evidence-based approach to critically evaluate and summarize effectiveness research on physiotherapy, physiotherapy-related motor-based interventions and orthotic devices in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP). It aims to assess the methodological challenges of the systematic reviews and trials, to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in current use, and to make suggestions for future trials Methods: Systematic reviews were searched from computerized bibliographic databases up to August 2007 for physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions, and up to May 2003 for orthotic devices. Two reviewers independently identified, selected, and assessed the quality of the reviews using the Overview Quality Assessment Questionnaire complemented with decision rules. From a sample of 14 randomized controlled trials (RCT) published between January 1990 and June 2003 we analysed the methods of sampling, recruitment, and comparability of groups; defined the components of a complex intervention; identified outcome measures based on the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF); analysed the clinical interpretation of score changes; and analysed trial reporting using a modified 33-item CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) checklist. The effectiveness of physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions in children with diagnosed CP was evaluated in a systematic review of randomised controlled trials that were searched from computerized databases from January 1990 up to February 2007. Two reviewers independently assessed the methodological quality, extracted the data, classified the outcomes using the ICF, and considered the level of evidence according to van Tulder et al. (2003). Results: We identified 21 reviews on physiotherapy and physiotherapy-related interventions and five on orthotic devices. These reviews summarized 23 or 5 randomised controlled trials and 104 or 27 observational studies, respectively. Only six reviews were of high quality. These found some evidence supporting strength training, constraint-induced movement therapy or hippotherapy, and insufficient evidence on comprehensive interventions. Based on the original studies included in the reviews on orthotic devices we found some short-term effects of lower limb casting on passive range of movement, and of ankle-foot orthoses on equinus walk. Long term effects of lower limb orthoses have not been studied. Evidence of upper limb casting or orthoses is conflicting. In the sample of 14 RCTs, most trials used simple randomisation, complemented with matching or stratification, but only three specified the concealed allocation. Numerous studies provided sufficient details on the components of a complex intervention, but the overlap of outcome measures across studies was poor and the clinical interpretation of observed score changes was mostly missing. Almost half (48%) of the applicable CONSORT-based items (range 28 32) were reported adequately. Most reporting inadequacies were in outcome measures, sample size determination, details of the sequence generation, allocation concealment and implementation of the randomization, success of assessor blinding, recruitment and follow-up dates, intention-to-treat analysis, precision of the effect size, co-interventions, and adverse events. The systematic review identified 22 trials on eight intervention categories. Four trials were of high quality. Moderate evidence of effectiveness was established for upper extremity treatments on attained goals, active supination and developmental status, and of constraint-induced therapy on the amount and quality of hand use and new emerging behaviours. Moderate evidence of ineffectiveness was found for strength training's effect on walking speed and stride length. Conflicting evidence was found for strength training's effect on gross motor function. For the other intervention categories the evidence was limited due to the low methodological quality and the statistically insignificant results of the studies. Conclusions: The high-quality reviews provide both supportive and insufficient evidence on some physiotherapy interventions. The poor quality of most reviews calls for caution, although most reviews drew no conclusions on effectiveness due to the poor quality of the primary studies. A considerable number of RCTs of good to fair methodological and reporting quality indicate that informative and well-reported RCTs on complex interventions in children and adolescents with CP are feasible. Nevertheless, methodological improvement is needed in certain areas of the trial design and performance, and the trial authors are encouraged to follow the CONSORT criteria. Based on RCTs we established moderate evidence for some effectiveness of upper extremity training. Due to limitations in methodological quality and variations in population, interventions and outcomes, mostly limited evidence on the effectiveness of most physiotherapy interventions is available to guide clinical practice. Well-designed trials are needed, especially for focused physiotherapy interventions.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Sosiaalipalveluja kaikille ja kaiken ikää? : Tutkimus suomalaisten mielipiteistä ja kokemuksista sosiaalipalveluista sekä niiden suhteesta legitimiteettiin

This research analyses opinions on the system of social welfare services from the point of view of clients and the public in general in Finland. The approach is quantitative, drawing on theories of the welfare-state tradition. The data used comes from the comprehensive Welfare and Services in Finland survey compiled by STAKES. While previous research on the welfare state has predominantly focused on surveying public opinion on social protection, this research focuses on social welfare services. The main focus of this research is on publicly funded care provided by municipal social welfare services. In this research, social welfare services include child day care, services for people with disabilities, home-help services, counselling by social workers and social assistance. The research considered in particular whether the clients or the population has different opinions towards social welfare services or social benefits. In addition, the research partly covers areas of informal care provided by family and friends. The research material consisted of the STAKES Welfare and Services in Finland survey. The data was compiled in 2004 and 2006 by Statistics Finland. The research comprises five articles. Additional data have been extracted from social welfare statistics and registers. Multiple approaches were applied in the survey on welfare and services the methods in this research included interviews by phone and mail, and register data. The sample size was 5 810 people in 2004 and 5 798 in 2006. The response rates were 82.7% and 83.7%, respectively. The results indicate that a large majority (90%) of the Finnish population is of the opinion that the public sector should bear the main responsibility for organising social and health services. The system of social welfare services and its personnel have strong public support 73% and 80% respectively. However, new and even negative tones have emerged in the Finnish debate on social welfare services. Women are increasingly critical of the performance of social welfare services and the level of social protection. Furthermore, this study shows that women more often than men wish to see an increase in the amount of privately organised social welfare services. Another group critical of the performance of social welfare services are pensioners. People who had used social welfare services were more critical than those who had not used them. Thus, the severest criticism was received from the groups who use and gain most from public services and benefits. However, the education and income variables identified in earlier studies no longer formed a significant dividing line, although people with higher education tend to foster a more positive view of the performance of social welfare services as well as the level of social protection. Income differences did not bear any significance, that is, belonging to a high or low income group was not a determining factor in the attitude towards social welfare services or social benefits. According to the research, family and friends still form an informal yet significant support network in people's everyday lives, and its importance has not been diminished by services provided by the welfare state. The Finnish public considers child day care the most reliable form of social welfare services. Indeed, child day care has become the most universal sector of our system of social welfare services. Other services that instil confidence included counselling by social workers and services for people with disabilities. On the other hand, social assistance and home-help services received negative feedback. The negative views were based on a number of arguments. One argument contends that the home-help service system, which was originally intended for universal use, is crumbling. The preventive role of home-help services has been reduced. These results mirror the increasingly popular opinion that social welfare services are not produced for all those who need them, but to an increasing extent for a select few of them. Municipalities are struggling with their finances and this, combined with negative publicity, has damaged the public's trust in some municipal social welfare services. A welfare state never achieves a stable condition, but must develop over time, as the world around it changes. Following the 1990's recession, we are now in a position where we can start to develop a system that responds to the needs of the next generation. Study results indicating new areas of dissatisfaction reflect the need to develop and improve the services provided. It is also increasingly essential that social welfare services pay attention to the opinions of clients and the public. Should the gap between opinions and actual activities increase, the legitimacy of the whole system would be questioned. Currently, the vast majority of Finns consider the system of social welfare services adequate, which provides us with the continuity required to maintain and improve client-oriented and reasonably priced social welfare services. Paying attention to the signals given by clients and the general public, and reacting to them accordingly, will also secure the development and legitimacy of the system in the future.

Angel Investing in Finland: An Analysis Based on Agency Theory and the Incomplete Contracting Theory

Wealthy individuals - business angels who invest a share of their net worth in entrepreneurial ventures - form an essential part of an informal venture capital market that can secure funding for entrepreneurial ventures. In Finland, business angels represent an untapped pool of capital that can contribute to fostering entrepreneurial development. In addition, business angels can bridge knowledge gaps in new business ventures by means of making their human capital available. This study has two objectives. The first is to gain an understanding of the characteristics and investment behaviour of Finnish business angels. The strongest focus here is on the due diligence procedures and their involvement post investment. The second objective is to assess whether agency theory and the incomplete contacting theory are useful theoretical lenses in the arena of business angels. To achieve the second objective, this study investigates i) how risk is mitigated in the investment process, ii) how uncertainty influences the comprehensiveness of due diligence as well as iii) how control is allocated post investment. Research hypotheses are derived from assumptions underlying agency theory and the incomplete contacting theory. The data for this study comprise interviews with 53 business angels. In terms of sample size this is the largest on Finnish business angels. The research hypotheses in this study are tested using regression analysis. This study suggests that the Finnish informal venture capital market appears to be comprised of a limited number of business angels whose style of investing much resembles their formal counterparts’. Much focus is placed on managing risks prior to making the investment by strong selectiveness and by a relatively comprehensive due diligence. The involvement is rarely on a day-to-day basis and many business angels seem to see board membership as a more suitable alternative than involvement in the operations of an entrepreneurial venture. The uncertainty involved does not seem to drive an increase in due diligence. On the contrary, it would appear that due diligence is more rigorous in safer later stage investments and when the business angels have considerable previous experience as investors. Finnish business angels’ involvement post investment is best explained by their degree of ownership in the entrepreneurial venture. It seems that when investors feel they are sufficiently rewarded, in terms of an adequate equity stake, they are willing to involve themselves actively in their investments. The lack of support for a relationship between increased uncertainty and the comprehensiveness of due diligence may partly be explained by an increasing trend towards portfolio diversification. This is triggered by a taxation system that favours investments through investment companies rather than direct investments. Many business angels appear to have substituted a specialization strategy that builds on reducing uncertainty for a diversification strategy that builds on reducing firm specific (idiosyncratic) risk by holding shares in ventures whose returns are not expected to exhibit a strong positive correlation.

Suomalaisen alkuperäiskarjan liha – kuluttajien osto- ja maksuhalukkuus

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää suomalaisen alkuperäiskarjan lihan potentiaalista kysyntää. Alkuperäiskarjan lihan erikoistuotemarkkinat voivat auttaa pitämään uhanalaiset, kotimaiset karjarodut tuotantokäytössä. Näin ollen erikoistuotemarkkinat voivat auttaa arvokkaiden suomalaisten eläingeenivarojen säilyttämisessä. Koska alkuperäiskarjan lihan tuotannon kannattavuus riippuu lihasta saatavasta lisähinnasta, tutkimuksen tavoitteena on myös tutkia, millainen kuluttajien maksuhalukkuus alkuperäiskarjan lihasta on verrattuna tavanomaiseen lihaan. Tutkimusaineisto kerättiin Maa- ja elintarviketalouden tutkimuskeskuksen ja Kuluttajatutkimuskeskuksen suunnittelemalla kyselytutkimuksella keväällä 2010. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin ehdollisen käyttäytymisen ja ehdollisen arvottamisen menetelmiä ja sen otoskoko on 1623. Kuluttajien ostohalukkuutta ja siihen vaikuttavia tekijöitä tutkittiin sekä binäärisen että ordinaalisen regression malleilla. Kuluttajien maksuhalukkuutta alkuperäiskarjan lihasta ja siihen vaikuttavia tekijöitä tutkittiin grouped data -mallin avulla. Malleissa käytettiin selittävinä muuttujina sosioekonomisten muuttujien lisäksi kuluttajien asenteita ja käyttäytymistä kuvaavia muuttujia. Tutkielman tulosten mukaan jopa 86 % vastaajista ostaisi alkuperäiskarjan lihaa, jos sitä olisi tarjolla kaupoissa. Ostohalukkuutta lisää muun muassa, jos vastaajalla on alle 18-vuotiaita lapsia ja vastaaja arvostaa lähellä tuotettua, paikallista ruokaa sekä ympäristöystävällisyyttä. Miehet ostaisivat alkuperäiskarjan lihaa todennäköisemmin kuin naiset. Suurin osa vastaajista ostaisi alkuperäiskarjan lihaa, jos se olisi samanhintaista kuin tavanomainen liha, mutta noin neljäsosa (23,5 %) vastaajista olisi valmis maksamaan alkuperäiskarjan lihasta korkeampaa hintaa kuin tavanomaisesta lihasta. Maksuhalukkuuteen vaikuttivat positiivisesti muun muassa kuuluminen ympäristöjärjestöön ja korkea tulotaso. Negatiivisesti vaikutti puolestaan esimerkiksi se, että vastaaja on nainen. Keskimääräinen maksuhalukkuus alkuperäiskarjan lihasta oli 6,25 % korkeampi kuin tavanomaisesta lihasta. Maksuhalukkuus alkuperäiskarjan lihasta oli selvästi yhteydessä siihen, kuinka usein vastaaja olisi halukas ostamaan sitä. Maksuhalukkuus oli korkein niillä vastaajilla, jotka haluaisivat ostaa lihaa säännöllisesti.

Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Effects of gender, and SLCO1B1 and CYP7A1 polymorphisms on plasma bile acids in humans and the pharmacokinetics of therapeutic ursodeoxycholic acid

Bile acids are important steroid-derived molecules essential for fat absorption in the small intestine. They are produced in the liver and secreted into the bile. Bile acids are transported by bile flow to the small intestine, where they aid the digestion of lipids. Most bile acids are reabsorbed in the small intestine and return to the liver through the portal vein. The whole recycling process is referred to as the enterohepatic circulation, during which only a small amount of bile acids are removed from the body via faeces. The enterohepatic circulation of bile acids involves the delicate coordination of a number of bile acid transporters expressed in the liver and the small intestine. Organic anion transporting polypeptide 1B1 (OATP1B1), encoded by the solute carrier organic anion transporter family, member 1B1 (SLCO1B1) gene, mediates the sodium independent hepatocellular uptake of bile acids. Two common SNPs in the SLCO1B1 gene are well known to affect the transport activity of OATP1B1. Moreover, bile acid synthesis is an important elimination route for cholesterol. Cholesterol 7α-hydroxylase (CYP7A1) is the rate-limiting enzyme of bile acid production. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the effects of SLCO1B1 polymorphism on the fasting plasma levels of individual endogenous bile acids and a bile acid synthesis marker, and the pharmacokinetics of exogenously administered ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). Furthermore, the effects of CYP7A1 genetic polymorphism and gender on the fasting plasma concentrations of individual endogenous bile acids and the bile acid synthesis marker were evaluated. Firstly, a high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) method for the determination of bile acids was developed (Study I). A retrospective study examined the effects of SLCO1B1 genetic polymorphism on the fasting plasma concentrations of individual bile acids and a bile acid synthesis marker in 65 healthy subjects (Study II). In another retrospective study with 143 healthy individuals, the effects of CYP7A1 genetic polymorphism and gender as well as SLCO1B1 polymorphism on the fasting plasma levels of individual bile acids and the bile acid synthesis marker were investigated (Study III). The effects of SLCO1B1 polymorphism on the pharmacokinetics of exogenously administered UDCA were evaluated in a prospective genotype panel study including 27 healthy volunteers (Study IV). A robust, sensitive and simple HPLC-MS/MS method was developed for the simultaneous determination of 16 individual bile acids in human plasma. The method validation parameters for all the analytes met the requirements of the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) bioanalytical guidelines. This HPLC-MS/MS method was applied in Studies II-IV. In Study II, the fasting plasma concentrations of several bile acids and the bile acid synthesis marker seemed to be affected by SLCO1B1 genetic polymorphism, but these findings were not replicated in Study III with a larger sample size. Moreover, SLCO1B1 polymorphism had no effect on the pharmacokinetic parameters of exogenously administered UDCA. Furthermore, no consistent association was observed between CYP7A1 genetic polymorphism and the fasting plasma concentrations of individual bile acids or the bile acid synthesis marker. In contrast, gender had a major effect on the fasting plasma concentrations of several bile acids and also total bile acids. In conclusion, gender, but not SLCO1B1 or CYP7A1 polymorphisms, has a major effect on the fasting plasma concentrations of individual bile acids. Moreover, the common genetic polymorphism of CYP7A1 is unlikely to influence the activity of CYP7A1 under normal physiological conditions. OATP1B1 does not play an important role in the in vivo disposition of exogenously administered UDCA.