Kymijoen vaelluskalojen nousureittien avaamisen kustannusten ja hyötyjen arviointi

The objective of this thesis is to evaluate different means of increasing natural reproduction of migratory fish, especially salmon, in the river Kymijoki. The original stocks of migratory fish in Kymijoki were lost by the 1950s because of hydropower plants and worsened quality of water in the river. Nowadays the salmon stocks is based on hatchery-reared fish, even though there is significant potential of natural smolt production in the river. The main problem in the natural reproduction is that the migratory fish cannot ascend to the reproduction areas above the Korkeakoski and Koivukoski hydropower plants. In this thesis alternative projects which aim to open these ascencion routes and their costs and benefits are evaluated. The method used in the evaluation is social cost-benefit analysis. The alternative projects evaluated in this thesis consist of projects that aim to change the flow patterns between the eastern branches of Kymijoki and projects that involve building a fish ladder. Also different combinations of these projects are considered. The objective of this thesis is to find the project that is the most profitable to execute; this evaluation can be done in comparing the net present values of the projects. In addition to this, a sensitivity analysis will be made on the parameter values that are most uncertain. We compare the net present values of the projects with the net present values of hatchery-reared smolt releases, so we can evaluate, if the projects or the smolt releases are more socially profitable in the long term. The results of this thesis indicate that especially the projects that involve building a fish ladder next to the Korkeakoski hydropower plant are the most socially profitable. If this fish ladder would be built, the natural reproduction of salmon in the Kymijoki river could become so extensive, that hatchery-reared smolt releases could even be stopped. The results of the sensivity analysis indicate that the net present values of the projects depend especially on the initial smolt survival rate of wild salmon and the functioning of the potential fish ladder in Korkeakoski. Also the changes of other parameter values influence the results of the cost-benefit analysis, but not as significantly. When the net present values of the projects and the smolt releases are compared, the results depend on which period of time is selected to count the average catches of reared salmon. If the average of the last 5 years catches is used in counting the net benefits of smolt releases, all the alternative projects are more profitable than the releases. When the average of the last 10 years is used, only building of the fish ladder in Korkeakoski and all the project combinations are more profitable than the smolt releases.