Short-Horizon Asymmetric Mean-Reversion and Overreactions: Evidence from the Nordic Stock Markets

This paper examines the asymmetric behavior of conditional mean and variance. Short-horizon mean-reversion behavior in mean is modeled with an asymmetric nonlinear autoregressive model, and the variance is modeled with an Exponential GARCH in Mean model. The results of the empirical investigation of the Nordic stock markets indicates that negative returns revert faster to positive returns when positive returns generally persist longer. Asymmetry in both mean and variance can be seen on all included markets and are fairly similar. Volatility rises following negative returns more than following positive returns which is an indication of overreactions. Negative returns lead to increased variance and positive returns leads even to decreased variance.

Modeling Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Asset Pricing

Financial time series tend to behave in a manner that is not directly drawn from a normal distribution. Asymmetries and nonlinearities are usually seen and these characteristics need to be taken into account. To make forecasts and predictions of future return and risk is rather complicated. The existing models for predicting risk are of help to a certain degree, but the complexity in financial time series data makes it difficult. The introduction of nonlinearities and asymmetries for the purpose of better models and forecasts regarding both mean and variance is supported by the essays in this dissertation. Linear and nonlinear models are consequently introduced in this dissertation. The advantages of nonlinear models are that they can take into account asymmetries. Asymmetric patterns usually mean that large negative returns appear more often than positive returns of the same magnitude. This goes hand in hand with the fact that negative returns are associated with higher risk than in the case where positive returns of the same magnitude are observed. The reason why these models are of high importance lies in the ability to make the best possible estimations and predictions of future returns and for predicting risk.

Disabled Revolutionary War Veterans and the Construction of Disability in the Early United States, c. 1776-1840

This thesis addresses the following broad research question: what did it mean to be a disabled Revolutionary War veteran in the early United States during the period from 1776 to roughly 1840? The study approaches the question from two angles: a state-centred one and an experiential one. In both cases, the theoretical framework employed comes from disability studies. Consequently, disability is regarded as a sociocultural phenomenon rather than a medical condition. The state-centred dimension of the study explores the meaning of disability and disabled veterans to the early American state through an examination of the major military pension laws of the period. An analysis of this legislation, particularly the invalid pension acts of 1793 and 1806, indicates that the early United States represents a key period in the development of the modern disability category. The experiential approach, in contrast, shifts the focus of attention away from the state towards the lived experiences of disabled veterans. It seeks to address the issue of whether or not the disabilities of disabled veterans had any significant material impact on their everyday lives. It does this through a comparison of the situation of 153 disabled veterans with that of an equivalent number of nondisabled veterans. The former group received invalid pensions while the latter did not. In comparing the material conditions of disabled and nondisabled veterans, a wide range of primary sources from military records to memoirs and letters are used. The most important sources in this regard are the pension application papers submitted by veterans in the early nineteenth century. These provide us with a unique insight into the everyday lives of veterans. Looking at the issue of experience through the window of the pension files reveals that there was not much difference in the broad contours of disabled and nondisabled veteran life. This finding has implications for the theorisation of disability that are highlighted and discussed in the thesis. The main themes covered in this study are: the wartime experiences of injured American soldiers, the military pension establishment of the early United States and the legal construction of disability, and the post-war working and family lives of disabled veterans. Keywords: disability, early America, veterans, military pensions, disabled people, Revolutionary War, United States, disability theory.

Readers' resposes versus reader-response theories : An empirical study

This study examines both theoretically an empirically how well the theories of Norman Holland, David Bleich, Wolfgang Iser and Stanley Fish can explain readers' interpretations of literary texts. The theoretical analysis concentrates on their views on language from the point of view of Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations. This analysis shows that many of the assumptions related to language in these theories are problematic. The empirical data show that readers often form very similar interpretations. Thus the study challenges the common assumption that literary interpretations tend to be idiosyncratic. The empirical data consists of freely worded written answers to questions on three short stories. The interpretations were made by 27 Finnish university students. Some of the questions addressed issues that were discussed in large parts of the texts, some referred to issues that were mentioned only in passing or implied. The short stories were "The Witch à la Mode" by D. H. Lawrence, "Rain in the Heart" by Peter Taylor and "The Hitchhiking Game" by Milan Kundera. According to Fish, readers create both the formal features of a text and their interpretation of it according to an interpretive strategy. People who agree form an interpretive community. However, a typical answer usually contains ideas repeated by several readers as well as observations not mentioned by anyone else. Therefore it is very difficult to determine which readers belong to the same interpretive community. Moreover, readers with opposing opinions often seem to pay attention to the same textual features and even acknowledge the possibility of an opposing interpretation; therefore they do not seem to create the formal features of the text in different ways. Iser suggests that an interpretation emerges from the interaction between the text and the reader when the reader determines the implications of the text and in this way fills the "gaps" in the text. Iser believes that the text guides the reader, but as he also believes that meaning is on a level beyond words, he cannot explain how the text directs the reader. The similarity in the interpretations and the fact that the agreement is strongest when related to issues that are discussed broadly in the text do, however, support his assumption that readers are guided by the text. In Bleich's view, all interpretations have personal motives and each person has an idiosyncratic language system. The situation where a person learns a word determines the most important meaning it has for that person. In order to uncover the personal etymologies of words, Bleich asks his readers to associate freely on the basis of a text and note down all the personal memories and feelings that the reading experience evokes. Bleich's theory of the idiosyncratic language system seems to rely on a misconceived notion of the role that ostensive definitions have in language use. The readers' responses show that spontaneous associations to personal life seem to colour the readers' interpretations, but such instances are rather rare. According to Holland, an interpretation reflects the reader's identity theme. Language use is regulated by shared rules, but everyone follows the rules in his or her own way. Words mean different things to different people. The problem with this view is that if there is any basis for language use, it seems to be the shared way of following linguistic rules. Wittgenstein suggests that our understanding of words is related to the shared ways of using words and our understanding of human behaviour. This view seems to give better grounds for understanding similarity and differences in literary interpretations than the theories of Holland, Bleich, Fish and Iser.

A Literary Turn : Rethinking the Roles of Generalization and Theory in Anglo-American Moral Philosophy

This work investigates the role of narrative literature in late-20th century and contemporary Anglo-American moral philosophy. It aims to show the trend of reading narrative literature for purposes of moral philosophy from the 1970 s and early 80 s to the present day as a part of a larger movement in Anglo-American moral philosophy, and to present a view of its significance for moral philosophy overall. Chapter 1 provides some preliminaries concerning the view of narrative literature which my discussion builds on. In chapter 2 I give an outline of how narrative literature is considered in contemporary Anglo-American moral philosophy, and connect this use to the broad trend of neo-Aristotelian ethics in this context. In chapter 3 I connect the use of literature to the idea of the non-generalizability of moral perception and judgment, which is central to the neo-Aristotelian trend, as well as to a range of moral particularisms and anti-theoretical positions of late 20th century and contemporary ethics. The joint task of chapters 2 and 3 is to situate the trend of reading narrative literature for the purposes of moral philosophy in the present context of moral philosophy. In the following two chapters, 4 and 5, I move on from the particularizing power of narrative literature, which is emphasized by neo-Aristotelians and particularists alike, to a broader under-standing of the intellectual potential of narrative literature. In chapter 4 I argue that narrative literature has its own forms of generalization which are enriching for our understanding of the workings of ethical generalizations in philosophy. In chapter 5 I discuss Iris Murdoch s and Martha Nussbaum s respective ways of combining ethical generality and particularity in a philosophical framework where both systematic moral theory and narrative literature are taken seriously. In chapter 6 I analyse the controversy between contemporary anti-theoretical conceptions of ethics and Nussbaum s refutation of these. I present my suggestion for how the significance of the ethics/literature discussion for moral philosophy can be understood if one wants to overcome the limitations of both Nussbaum s theory-centred, equilibrium-seeking perspective, and the anti-theorists repudiation of theory. I call my position the inclusive approach .

Across the Oceans : Development of Overseas Business Information Transmission, 1815-1875

Earlier studies have shown that the speed of information transmission developed radically during the 19th century. The fast development was mainly due to the change from sailing ships and horse-driven coaches to steamers and railways, as well as the telegraph. Speed of information transmission has normally been measured by calculating the duration between writing and receiving a letter, or between an important event and the time when the news was published elsewhere. As overseas mail was generally carried by ships, the history of communications and maritime history are closely related. This study also brings a postal historical aspect to the academic discussion. Additionally, there is another new aspect included. In business enterprises, information flows generally consisted of multiple transactions. Although fast one-way information was often crucial, e.g. news of a changing market situation, at least equally important was that there was a possibility to react rapidly. To examine the development of business information transmission, the duration of mail transport has been measured by a systematic and commensurable method, using consecutive information circles per year as the principal tool for measurement. The study covers a period of six decades, several of the world's most important trade routes and different mail-carrying systems operated by merchant ships, sailing packets and several nations' steamship services. The main sources have been the sailing data of mail-carrying ships and correspondence of several merchant houses in England. As the world's main trade routes had their specific historical backgrounds with different businesses, interests and needs, the systems for information transmission did not develop similarly or simultaneously. It was a process lasting several decades, initiated by the idea of organizing sailings in a regular line system. The evolution proceeded generally as follows: originally there was a more or less irregular system, then a regular system and finally a more frequent regular system of mail services. The trend was from sail to steam, but both these means of communication improved following the same scheme. Faster sailings alone did not radically improve the number of consecutive information circles per year, if the communication was not frequent enough. Neither did improved frequency advance the information circulation if the trip was very long or if the sailings were overlapping instead of complementing each other. The speed of information transmission could be improved by speeding up the voyage itself (technological improvements, minimizing the waiting time at ports of call, etc.) but especially by organizing sailings so that the recipients had the possibility to reply to arriving mails without unnecessary delay. It took two to three decades before the mail-carrying shipping companies were able to organize their sailings in an optimal way. Strategic shortcuts over isthmuses (e.g. Panama, Suez) together with the cooperation between steamships and railways enabled the most effective improvements in global communications before the introduction of the telegraph.

Minästä toiseen : Lacanilaisen subjektin syntymä Anaïs Ninin House of Incestissä ja Hélène Cixous'n Dedans'issa

The study approaches two modern novels using the conceptual frame of Lacanian psychoanalysis, especially the Lacanian notion of subject. The novels can be described as subversive “Bildungsromans” (development novels) highly influenced by psychoanalytic thought. Anaïs Nin’s (1903—1977) “poetic novel” House of Incest (1936) is a story of sexual and artistic awakening while Hélène Cixous’s (b. 1937) first novel Dedans (1969) depicts the growth of a little girl whose father dies. Both are first novels and first person narratives. Concentrating in the narrator’s internal life the novels writings break with the realistic conventions of narrative, bringing forth the themes of anguish, alienation from the world and escape into the prison like realm of the self. The study follows roughly the Lacanian process of becoming a subject. Each chapter opens up with a quick introduction to the Lacanian concepts used in the following part that analyses the novels. The study can thus also be used as a brief introduction to Lacanian theory in finnish. The psychoanalytic narrative/story of the birth of the subject and the novels stories can be seen as mirroring each other. The method of the study is thus based on a dialogue between the theoretical concepts and the analyses. Novels are being approached as texts that break with the Cartesian notion of an autonomous subject making room for a dialectics of self and other, for a movement in which the “I” builds an identity mirroring itself with others. While both of the novels recount the birth of a character called I, they also have a first person narrator apart from the character “I”. Having constituted the self’s identity, the narrator finds from inside of the self also an other or “you” – this discovery is the final clue to the coffin of the autonomous self. From the Lacanian perspective man’s great Other is the order of language, Symbolic, which constitutes the individual, the speaking subject. Using this perspective the novels are interpreted as describing the process of becoming a subject of the Symbolic; subjected to Symbolic order. This “birth process” happens in particular in the Imaginary register, where the self’s identity is built. In the Imaginary or Mirror phase the “I” mirrors himself with different others (e.g. with his mirror image and the family members, the surrounding others) learning to see his body and his selfhood both as familiar and strange, other. In the Imaginary phase the novels’ characters are also trying to deal with the opposite realm of the Symcolic, the Real. The Lacanian Real is not the reality “before words” but a reality left over from the Symbolic, aside of it but constituted by the Symbolic, to be deducted only from within it. In the novels the Real is experienced as a womblike state where the self is immersed in the other’s body. The process of coming a subject of the Symbolic is depicted also as a process of renouncing the “dream of the womb”, which, if realized, could only mean the non-existence of the subject, i.e. death. The study concentrates on analysing the novels’ writing, where meanings are constantly changing: “I” becomes you, the father becomes a mother, inside becomes outside. This technique enables also the deconstruction of certain opposing notions in the novels. The Lacanian point of view exposes language as a constantly moving universe where the subject has no more stability than the momentary meanings language creates. The self’s identity depicted in the novels is a Lacanian fixed identity, whose growth is necessary but opposes the flux imminent to the Symbolic. The anguish experienced in the novels, in the “house of incest” or “inside”, is due to clinging on the unchanging “I”. However, the writing of the novels shows how the meaning of the “I” changes constantly and the fixity thus becomes movement. This way House of Incest and Dedans, despite their pessimistic stories, manage to create an image of a new, moving subject.

"Valehtelu ei auta, mutta kaikkea ei kannata kertoa." : Kertomatta jättäminen parisuhteen vuorovaikutuskontekstissa

Topic avoidance in romantic relationships has not been researched before in Finnish speech communication research, and this study was expected to increase the understanding of a phenomenon that acquires relatively dramatic attributes in everyday conversation. The aim of this study was to describe topic avoidance based on what was told in the interviews, and to describe the beliefs concerning functional or dysfunctional relational communication that can be interpreted from the interviewees' speech when they talk about topic avoidance. The theoretical reference frame of this study consists of the Communication Privacy Management Theory, relational dialectics, and earlier, mostly American research on topic avoidance. Ten Finnish people aged 22-31, who all had previous experience on one or more marital or common-law relationships were interviewed for this study. Additional material for the study was gathered from the interviewees by using the role playing method to describe interactional events where something essential is left unsaid in the context of romantic relationship. The following values were attributed to functional communication in romantic relationships: openness, equality, honesty, trust and positivity. The dialectical nature of the phenomenon being researched is evident in the way that along with openness, the interviewees talked about excessive openness that should occasionally be avoided in the context of relational communication by leaving things unsaid. Topic avoidance was seen both as a conscious strategic communication for managing privacy, and as an uncontrollable force of nature that at its worst destroys the relationship. When topic avoidance is seen as strategic communication, the choice concerning what is left unsaid is made by weighing the following dimensions asgainst each other: risks/ benefits (for self, relationship), protects/ does not protect (self, partner, relationship), burdens/ does not burden (self, partner, relationship), honesty/ dishonesty, responsibility lies with self/ responsibility does not lie with self. Topic avoidance was acceptable if it was used in order to preserve the relationship, as opposed to gaining power in the relationship or causing insecurity for the partner. The acceptability of topic avoidance varied according to whether it differed from lying or not. When the interviewees talk about topic avoidance, their speech can be interpreted to mean that in spite of uncontrollability, communicative choices can be made in relational communication and that skills concerning communication in romantic relationships can be learned.

Self-reported bruxism : Associated factors among media personnel with or without irregular shift work

Tutkimuksen kohderyhmänä oli mediatyöntekijöitä, joiden toimenkuva on viime vuosina muuttunut yhä kuormittavammaksi epäsäännöllisen vuorotyön sekä jatkuvien teknisten, organisatoristen ja taloudellisten tekijöiden ristipaineessa. Väitöskirjatutkimus on osa laajempaa tutkimushanketta, joka suunniteltiin selvittämään epäsäännöllisen vuorotyön mahdollisia haittoja. Tutkimusta tukivat taloudellisesti Työsuojelurahasto ja Suomen Hammaslääkäriseura Apollonia sekä resurssipanostuksin Hammaslääketieteen laitos (HY), Työterveyslaitos ja Yleisradio Oy. Bruksismi on tahdosta riippumatonta hampaiden narskuttelua tai yhteenpuristamista. Hampaiden narskuttelu on rytmistä jaksoittain toistuvaa puremalihasten toimintaa, joka esiintyy nukkuessa -tavallisimmin kevyen unen ja havahtumisjaksojen yhteydessä. Valveilla ollessa bruksismi on terveillä ihmisillä lähinnä hampaiden yhteenpuristamista. Yleisen käsityksen mukaan toistuvaa unibruksismia esiintyy noin 10 %:lla ja valveilla tapahtuvaa hampaiden yhteenpuristamista noin 20 %:lla. Aiemmin bruksismi kuului kansainvälisen unihäiriöluokituksen (ICSD 1997) mukaan unen erityishäiriöihin, mutta tuorein luokitus (ICSD 2005) listaa sen unen liikehäiriöihin. Väitöstutkimuksen yleisenä tavoitteena oli kartoittaa koetun bruksismin ja uni- valvehäiriöiden yhteyttä. Tutkimus oli poikittainen vertailututkimus epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä ja säännöllisiä päivävuoroja tekevien välillä. Mielenkiinto kohdistui myös bruksismin ja kasvojen alueen kivun mahdolliseen yhteyteen. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa selvitettiin joidenkin tunnetusti unen laatua huonontavien psykososiaalisten, neurologisten ja fysiologisten tekijöiden yhteyttä koettuun bruksismiin. Tutkimuksen kohderyhmän muodosti 750 Yleisradion epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä tekevää työntekijää. Vertailuryhmänä käytettiin samansuuruista satunnaistetusti valittua kaltaistettua Yleisradion työntekijäjoukkoa, joka tekee samankaltaista työtä, mutta säännöllisenä päivätyönä. Kohderyhmälle lähetettiin kyselylomakkeet, jotka kartoittivat koetun bruksismin lisäksi mm. tutkittavien taustatiedot, yleisen terveydentilan, yleisiä koettuja stressioireita ja tuntemuksia, kipuoireita, sekä unen laatua. Lisäksi esitettiin jaksamista ja työympäristöä koskevia kysymyksiä. Kyselyyn vastasi kaikkiaan 874 henkilöä. Kokonaisvastausprosentti oli 58,3 % (53,7 % miehiä). Epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä tekevien vastausprosentti oli 82,3 % ja säännöllistä päivätyötä tekevien ryhmässä 34,3 %. Työtehtävät sisälsivät ohjelmien toimitus- ja tuottamistyötä, teknistä tuotanto- ja tukityötä, sekä esimies- ja hallintotyötä. Miesten keski-ikä vuorotyöryhmässä oli 45,0 (± 10,6) vuotta ja naisten keski-ikä 42,6 (± 10,7) vuotta, vastaavat luvut päivätyötä tekeville olivat 47,4 (± 9,7) ja 45,5 (± 10,1) vuotta. Vuorotyötä tekevistä oli miehiä 56,6 %, päivätyöryhmässä miehien osuus oli 46,7 %. Usein koettua bruksismia havaittiin koko tutkimusjoukossa 10,6 %:lla. Bruksismin esiintyvyydessä ei ollut merkitsevää eroa epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä ja päivätyötä tekevien välillä. Kun bruksismia ja stressiä arvioitiin suhteessa tyytyväisyyteen nykyiseen työaikamuotoon, molemmat olivat merkitsevästi vallitsevimpia niillä, jotka halusivat vaihtaa nykyistä työaikamuotoaan. Epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä tekevät lisäksi ilmoittivat kokevansa enemmän stressiä kuin päivätyötä tekevät sekä olivat tyytymättömämpiä työaikamuotoonsa. Tutkittavista henkilöistä katkonaista unta esiintyi 43,6 %:lla sekä 36,2 % koki unensa virkistämättömäksi. Kasvokipua esiintyi 19,6 %:lla. Usein toistuva bruksaus sekä tyytymättömyys työaikamuotoon olivat erittäin merkitsevästi yhteydessä unihäiriöiden sekä riittämättömän unen oireiden kanssa. Bruksismi ja katkonainen uni osoittautuivat myös kasvokivun taustatekijöiksi. Tutkimus osoitti, että koetulla bruksismilla oli merkitsevä yhteys unihäiriöihin, kasvokipuun, koettuun stressiin ja ahdistuneisuuteen, nuorempaan ikään, runsaampiin hammaslääkäri- ja lääkärikäynteihin sekä siihen että oli tyytymätön työaikamuotoonsa (itse työaikamuoto ei ollut merkitsevä tekijä). Tutkimuksen yhtenä johtopäätöksenä todettiin, että koettu bruksismi voi terveillä työikäisillä henkilöillä olla osa stressaavaa tilannetta ja siihen liittyvää käyttäytymistä. Tämän tiedostaminen terveydenhuollossa voisi olla hyödyllistä.

Preadolescents and Their Mothers as Oral Health-Promoting Actors : Non-biologic Determinants of Oral Health among Turkish and Finnish Preadolescents

Is oral health becoming a part of the global health culture? Oral health seems to turn out to be part of the global health culture, according to the findings of a thesis-research, Institute of Dentistry, University of Helsinki. The thesis is entitled as “Preadolescents and Their Mothers as Oral Health-Promoting Actors: Non-biologic Determinants of Oral Health among Turkish and Finnish Preadolescents.” The research was supervised by Prof.Murtomaa and led by Dr.A.Basak Cinar. It was conducted as a cross-sectional study of 611 Turkish and 223 Finnish school preadolescents in Istanbul and Helsinki, from the fourth, fifth, and sixth grades, aged 10 to 12, based on self-administered and pre-tested health behavior questionnaires for them and their mothers as well as the youth’s oral health records. Clinically assessed dental status (DMFT) and self-reported oral health of Turkish preadolescents was significantly poorer than the Finns`. A similar association occurred for well-being measures (height and weight, self-esteem), but not for school performance. Turkish preadolescents were more dentally anxious and reported lower mean values of toothbrushing self-efficacy and dietary self-efficacy than did Finns. The Turks less frequently reported recommended oral health behaviors (twice daily or more toothbrushing, sweet consumption on 2 days or less/week, decreased between-meal sweet consumption) than did the Finns. Turkish mothers reported less frequently dental health as being above average and recommended oral health behaviors as well as regular dental visits. Their mean values for dental anxiety was higher and self-efficacy on implementation of twice-daily toothbrushing were lower than those of the Finnish. Despite these differences between the Turks and Finns, the associations found in common for all preadolescents, regardless of cultural differences and different oral health care systems, assessed for the first time in a holistic framework, were as follows: There seems to be interrelation between oral health and general-well being (body height-weight measures, school performance, and self-esteem) among preadolescents: • The body height was an explanatory factor for dental health, underlining the possible common life-course factors for dental health and general well-being. • Better school performance, high levels of self-esteem and self-efficacy were interrelated and they contributed to good oral health. • Good school performance was a common predictor for twice-daily toothbrushing. Self-efficacy and maternal modelling have significant role for maintenance and improvement of both oral- and general health- related behaviors. In addition, there is need for integration of self-efficacy based approaches to promote better oral health. • All preadolescents with high levels of self-efficacy were more likely to report more frequent twice-daily toothbrushing and less frequent sweet consumption. • All preadolescents were likely to imitate toothbrushing and sweet consumption behaviors of their mothers. • High levels of self-efficacy contributed to low dental anxiety in various patterns in both groups. As a conclusion: • Many health-detrimental behaviors arise from the school age years and are unlikely to change later. Schools have powerful influences on children’s development and well-being. Therefore, oral health promotion in schools should be integrated into general health promotion, school curricula, and other activities. • Health promotion messages should be reinforced in schools, enabling children and their families to develop lifelong sustainable positive health-related skills (self-esteem, self-efficacy) and behaviors. • Placing more emphasis on behavioral sciences, preventive approaches, and community-based education during undergraduate studies should encourage social responsibility and health-promoting roles among dentists. Attempts to increase general well-being and to reduce oral health inequalities among preadolescents will remain unsuccessful if the individual factors, as well as maternal and societal influences, are not considered by psycho-social holistic approaches.

Routine Measurement of Health-Related Quality of Life in Assessing Cost-Effectiveness in Secondary Health Care

Aims: The aims of this study were 1) to identify and describe health economic studies that have used quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on actual measurements of patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL); 2) to test the feasibility of routine collection of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data as an indicator of effectiveness of secondary health care; and 3) to establish and compare the cost-utility of three large-volume surgical procedures in a real-world setting in the Helsinki University Central Hospital, a large referral hospital providing secondary and tertiary health-care services for a population of approximately 1.4 million. Patients and methods: So as to identify studies that have used QALYs as an outcome measure, a systematic search of the literature was performed using the Medline, Embase, CINAHL, SCI and Cochrane Library electronic databases. Initial screening of the identified articles involved two reviewers independently reading the abstracts; the full-text articles were also evaluated independently by two reviewers, with a third reviewer used in cases where the two reviewers could not agree a consensus on which articles should be included. The feasibility of routinely evaluating the cost-effectiveness of secondary health care was tested by setting up a system for collecting HRQoL data on approximately 4 900 patients' HRQoL before and after operative treatments performed in the hospital. The HRQoL data used as an indicator of treatment effectiveness was combined with diagnostic and financial indicators routinely collected in the hospital. To compare the cost-effectiveness of three surgical interventions, 712 patients admitted for routine operative treatment completed the 15D HRQoL questionnaire before and also 3-12 months after the operation. QALYs were calculated using the obtained utility data and expected remaining life years of the patients. Direct hospital costs were obtained from the clinical patient administration database of the hospital and a cost-utility analysis was performed from the perspective of the provider of secondary health care services. Main results: The systematic review (Study I) showed that although QALYs gained are considered an important measure of the effectiveness of health care, the number of studies in which QALYs are based on actual measurements of patients' HRQoL is still fairly limited. Of the reviewed full-text articles, only 70 reported QALYs based on actual before after measurements using a valid HRQoL instrument. Collection of simple cost-effectiveness data in secondary health care is feasible and could easily be expanded and performed on a routine basis (Study II). It allows meaningful comparisons between various treatments and provides a means for allocating limited health care resources. The cost per QALY gained was 2 770 for cervical operations and 1 740 for lumbar operations. In cases where surgery was delayed the cost per QALY was doubled (Study III). The cost per QALY ranges between subgroups in cataract surgery (Study IV). The cost per QALY gained was 5 130 for patients having both eyes operated on and 8 210 for patients with only one eye operated on during the 6-month follow-up. In patients whose first eye had been operated on previous to the study period, the mean HRQoL deteriorated after surgery, thus precluding the establishment of the cost per QALY. In arthroplasty patients (Study V) the mean cost per QALY gained in a one-year period was 6 710 for primary hip replacement, 52 270 for revision hip replacement, and 14 000 for primary knee replacement. Conclusions: Although the importance of cost-utility analyses has during recent years been stressed, there are only a limited number of studies in which the evaluation is based on patients own assessment of the treatment effectiveness. Most of the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses are based on modeling that employs expert opinion regarding the outcome of treatment, not on patient-derived assessments. Routine collection of effectiveness information from patients entering treatment in secondary health care turned out to be easy enough and did not, for instance, require additional personnel on the wards in which the study was executed. The mean patient response rate was more than 70 %, suggesting that patients were happy to participate and appreciated the fact that the hospital showed an interest in their well-being even after the actual treatment episode had ended. Spinal surgery leads to a statistically significant and clinically important improvement in HRQoL. The cost per QALY gained was reasonable, at less than half of that observed for instance for hip replacement surgery. However, prolonged waiting for an operation approximately doubled the cost per QALY gained from the surgical intervention. The mean utility gain following routine cataract surgery in a real world setting was relatively small and confined mostly to patients who had had both eyes operated on. The cost of cataract surgery per QALY gained was higher than previously reported and was associated with considerable degree of uncertainty. Hip and knee replacement both improve HRQoL. The cost per QALY gained from knee replacement is two-fold compared to hip replacement. Cost-utility results from the three studied specialties showed that there is great variation in the cost-utility of surgical interventions performed in a real-world setting even when only common, widely accepted interventions are considered. However, the cost per QALY of all the studied interventions, except for revision hip arthroplasty, was well below 50 000, this figure being sometimes cited in the literature as a threshold level for the cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Based on the present study it may be concluded that routine evaluation of the cost-utility of secondary health care is feasible and produces information essential for a rational and balanced allocation of scarce health care resources.

The structure of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) stems in relation to wood properties of sawn timber

An important challenge in forest industry is to get the appropriate raw material out from the forests to the wood processing industry. Growth and stem reconstruction simulators are therefore increasingly integrated in industrial conversion simulators, for linking the properties of wooden products to the three-dimensional structure of stems and their growing conditions. Static simulators predict the wood properties from stem dimensions at the end of a growth simulation period, whereas in dynamic approaches, the structural components, e.g. branches, are incremented along with the growth processes. The dynamic approach can be applied to stem reconstruction by predicting the three-dimensional stem structure from external tree variables (i.e. age, height) as a result of growth to the current state. In this study, a dynamic growth simulator, PipeQual, and a stem reconstruction simulator, RetroSTEM, are adapted to Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.) to predict the three-dimensional structure of stems (tapers, branchiness, wood basic density) over time such that both simulators can be integrated in a sawing simulator. The parameterisation of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators for Norway spruce relied on the theoretically based description of tree structure developing in the growth process and following certain conservative structural regularities while allowing for plasticity in the crown development. The crown expressed both regularity and plasticity in its development, as the vertical foliage density peaked regularly at about 5 m from the stem apex, varying below that with tree age and dominance position (Study I). Conservative stem structure was characterized in terms of (1) the pipe ratios between foliage mass and branch and stem cross-sectional areas at crown base, (2) the allometric relationship between foliage mass and crown length, (3) mean branch length relative to crown length and (4) form coefficients in branches and stem (Study II). The pipe ratio between branch and stem cross-sectional area at crown base, and mean branch length relative to the crown length may differ in trees before and after canopy closure, but the variation should be further analysed in stands of different ages and densities with varying site fertilities and climates. The predictions of the PipeQual and RetroSTEM simulators were evaluated by comparing the simulated values to measured ones (Study III, IV). Both simulators predicted stem taper and branch diameter at the individual tree level with a small bias. RetroSTEM predictions of wood density were accurate. For focusing on even more accurate predictions of stem diameters and branchiness along the stem, both simulators should be further improved by revising the following aspects in the simulators: the relationship between foliage and stem sapwood area in the upper stem, the error source in branch sizes, the crown base development and the height growth models in RetroSTEM. In Study V, the RetroSTEM simulator was integrated in the InnoSIM sawing simulator, and according to the pilot simulations, this turned out to be an efficient tool for readily producing stand scale information about stem sizes and structure when approximating the available assortments of wood products.

The decline of northern malaria and population dynamics of Plamodium vivax

Europe was declared malaria free in 1975. The disappearance of malaria has traditionally been attributed to numerous deliberate actions like vector control, the screening of houses, more efficient medication etc. Malaria, however, disappeared from many countries like Finland before any counter measures had even started. The aim of this thesis is to study the population ecology of P. vivax and its interaction with the human host and the vector. By finding the factors that attributed to the extinction of vivax malaria it might be possible to improve the modern strategy against P. vivax. The parasite was studied with data from Finland, which provides the longest time series (1749-2008) of malaria statistics in the world. The malaria vectors, Anopheles messeae and A. beklemishevi are still common species in the country. The eradication of vivax malaria is difficult because the parasite has a dormant stage that can cause a relapse long after a primary infection. It was now shown that P. vivax is able to detect the presence of a potential vector. A dormant stage is triggered even from a bite of an uninfected Anopheles mosquito. This optimizes the chances for the Plasmodium to reach a mosquito vector for sexual reproduction. The longevity of the dormant stage could be shown to be at least nine years. The parasite spends several years in its human host and the behaviour of the human carrier had a profound impact on the decline of the disease in Finland. Malaria spring epidemics could be explained by a previous warm summer. Neither annual nor summer mean temperature had any impact on the long term malaria trend. Malaria disappeared slowly from Finland without mosquito control. The sociological change from extended families to nuclear families led to decreased household size. The decreased household size correlated strongly with the decline of malaria. That led to an increased isolation of the subpopulations of P. vivax. Their habitat consisted of the bedrooms in which human carriers slept together with the overwintering vectors. The isolation of the parasite ultimately led to the extinction of vivax malaria. Metapopulation models adapted to local conditions should therefore be implemented as a tool for settlement planning and socio-economic development and become an integrated part of the fight against malaria.

Aikakauslehtipapereiden pitkän aikavälin kulutus Yhdysvalloissa

The United States is the world s single biggest market area, where the demand for graphic papers has increased by 80 % during the last three decades. However, during the last two decades there have been very big unpredictable changes in the graphic paper markets. For example, the consumption of newsprint started to decline from the late 1980 s, which was surprising compared to the historical consumption and projections. The consumption has declined since. The aim of this study was to see how magazine paper consumption will develop in the United States until 2030. The long-term consumption projection was made using mainly two methods. The first method was to use trend analysis to see how and if the consumption has changed since 1980. The second method was to use qualitative estimate. These estimates are then compared to the so-called classical model projections, which are usually mentioned and used in forestry literature. The purpose of the qualitative analysis is to study magazine paper end-use purposes and to analyze how and with what intensity the changes in society will effect to magazine paper consumption in the long-term. The framework of this study covers theories such as technology adaptation, electronic substitution, electronic publishing and Porter s threat of substitution. Because this study deals with markets, which have showed signs of structural change, a very substantial part of this study covers recent development and newest possible studies and statistics. The following were among the key findings of this study. Different end-uses have very different kinds of future. Electronic substitution is very likely in some end-use purposes, but not in all. Young people i.e. future consumers have very different manners, habits and technological opportunities than our parents did. These will have substantial effects in magazine paper consumption in the long-term. This study concludes to the fact that the change in magazine paper consumption is more likely to be gradual (evolutionary) than sudden collapse (revolutionary). It is also probable that the years of fast growing consumption of magazine papers are behind. Besides the decelerated growth, the consumption of magazine papers will decline slowly in the long-term. The decline will be faster depending on how far in the future we ll extend the study to.

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses in northern Europe

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses were studied using a combination of biological and physical indicators preserved in lake sediments. Low-frequency trends, high-frequency events and rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance were probed using pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and oxygen-isotopes from authigenic carbonate and aquatic cellulose, respectively. Pollen and plant macrofossils were employed to shed light on the presence and response rates of plant populations in response to climate changes, particularly focusing on common boreal and temperate tree species. Additional geochemical and isotopic tracers facilitated the interpretation of pollen- and oxygen-isotope data. The results show that the common boreal trees were present in the Baltic region (~55°N) during the Lateglacial, which contrasts with the traditional view of species refuge locations in the south-European peninsulas during the glacial/interglacial cycles. The findings of this work are in agreement with recent paleoecological and genetic evidence suggesting that scattered populations of tree species persisted at higher latitudes, and that these taxa were likely limited to boreal trees. Moreover, the results demonstrate that stepwise changes in plant communities took place in concert with major climate fluctuations of the glacial/interglacial transition. Postglacial climate trends in northern Europe were characterized by rise, maxima and fall in temperatures and related changes in moisture balance. Following the deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and the early Holocene reorganization of the ice-ocean-atmosphere system, the long-term temperature trends followed gradually decreasing summer insolation. The early Holocene (~11,700-8000 cal yr BP) was overall cool, moist and oceanic, although the earliest Holocene effective humidity may have been low particularly in the eastern part of northern Europe. The gradual warming trend was interrupted by a cold event ~8200 cal yr BP. The maximum temperatures, ~1.5-3.0°C above modern values, were attained ~8000-4000 cal yr BP. This mid-Holocene peak warmth was coupled with low lake levels, low effective humidity and summertime drought. The late Holocene (~4000 cal yr BP-present) was characterized by gradually decreasing temperatures, higher lake levels and higher effective humidity. Moreover, the gradual trends of the late Holocene were probably superimposed by higher-frequency variability. The spatial variability of the Holocene temperature and moisture balance patterns were tentatively attributed to the differing heat capacities of continents and oceans, changes in atmospheric circulation modes and position of sites and subregions with respect to large water bodies and topographic barriers. The combination of physical and biological proxy archives is a pivotal aspect of this work, because non-climatic factors, such as postglacial migration, disturbances and competitive interactions, can influence reshuffling of vegetation and hence, pollen-based climate reconstructions. The oxygen-isotope records and other physical proxies presented in this work manifest that postglacial climate changes were the main driver of the establishment and expansion of temperate and boreal tree populations, and hence, large-scale and long-term vegetation patterns were in dynamic equilibrium with climate. A notable exception to this pattern may be the postglacial invasion of Norway spruce and the related suppression of mid-Holocene temperate forest. This salient step in north-European vegetation history, the development of the modern boreal ecosystem, cannot be unambiguously explained by current evidence of postglacial climate changes. The results of this work highlight that plant populations, including long-lived trees, may be able to respond strikingly rapidly to changes in climate. Moreover, interannual and seasonal variation and extreme events can exert an important influence on vegetation reshuffling. Importantly, the studies imply that the presence of diffuse refuge populations or local stands among the prevailing vegetation may have provided the means for extraordinarily rapid vegetation responses. Hence, if scattered populations are not provided and tree populations are to migrate long distances, their capacity to keep up with predicted rates of future climate change may be lower than previously thought.