On the behaviour of some physical parameterization methods in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.

Chemical characteristics and behaviour of sediment phosphorus in the northeastern Baltic Sea.

Chemical characteristics and behaviour of sediment phosphorus in the northeastern Baltic Sea Eutrophication is a severe environmental problem in the Baltic Sea, especially in the Gulf of Finland and the Archipelago Sea, and it is enhanced by the release of phosphorus (P) from bottom sediments. The release of P from sediment reserves largely depends on the occurrence of P in different chemical forms and on the prevailing conditions, especially on the presence of oxygen. This study examines the chemical character and the vertical distribution of sediment P in two shallow estuaries, in shallow coastal sediments overlain by oxic near-bottom water, and in poorly oxygenated open sea sediments in the northeastern Baltic Sea. The objective was to evaluate how much of the sediment P is buried and removed from the nutrient cycle, and how much of it is in forms that can be released from the sediment to the overlaying water over time. Relationships between the distribution of the different P forms and the chemical and physical properties of the sediment, sediment pore water, and near-bottom water were determined in order to examine the behaviour of P at the sediment-water interface. The results show that the chemical character of sediment P varied in the different areas. Generally, in the outer estuaries and in the organic-rich coastal areas in the eastern Gulf of Finland, the sediments were higher in P than the sediments in the poorly oxygenated open sea areas in the central and western Gulf. The estuary sediments that received erosion-transported material were characterised by P bound to hydrated oxides of iron and aluminum. Iron-bound P is sensitive to changes in redox-conditions, but part of it was buried in the estuaries, possibly because of high sedimentation rates and incomplete reduction of iron. The open sea sediments in the central and western Gulf of Finland were dominated by apatite-P, which was also abundant in the areas strongly affected by sediment transportation. The burial of sediment P was most effective in the areas rich in apatite-P, which is a relatively stable form of P in sediment. In the eastern Gulf of Finland, organic P forms predominated in the organic-rich sediments. A part of these P forms will be buried, while part will be degraded in the long term, releasing soluble P to the pore water. In the poorly oxygenated areas, iron compounds at the sediment surface are not able to retain P released during mineralisation of organic matter or reduction-induced dissolution of iron-compounds in deep sediment layers. However, in the shallow coastal areas overlain by oxic near-bottom water, the organic-rich surface sediment can also become temporarily reduced and release P from the sediment to the overlaying water. The considerable variation in the chemical composition of sediment P reserves in the northeastern Baltic Sea proved that it is an important factor and should be taken into account when evaluating the release of sediment P and the role of P reserves in bottom sediments in eutrophication.

Antipredator behaviour of Baltic planktivores

Predation is an important source of mortality for most aquatic animals. Thus, the ability to avoid being eaten brings substantial fitness benefits to individuals. Predator detection abilities and antipredator behaviour were examined in various planktivores, i.e. the littoral mysids Neomysis integer and Praunus flexuosus, three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus larvae, pelagic mysids Mysis mixta and M. relicta, and the predatory cladoceran Cercopagis pengoi, with cues from their respective predators European perch Perca fluviatilis and Baltic herring Clupea harengus membras. The use of different aquatic macrophytes as predation refuges by the littoral planktivores was also examined. All pelagic planktivores and stickleback larvae were able to detect the presence of their predator by chemical cues alone. The littoral mysids N. integer and P. flexuosus responded only when chemical and visual predator cues were combined. The responses of stickleback larvae were stronger to the combined cues than the chemical cue alone. A common antipredator behaviour in all of the planktivores studied was decreased ingestion rate in response to predator cues. N. integer and stickleback larvae also decreased their swimming activity. Pelagic mysids and C. pengoi altered their prey selectivity patterns in response to predator cues. The effects of predator cues on the swarming behaviour of N. integer were examined. Swarming brings clear antipredator advantages to N. integer, since when they feed in a swarm, they do not significantly decrease their feeding rate. However, the swarming behaviour of N. integer was not affected by predation risk, but was instead a fixed strategy. Despite the presence or absence of predator cues, N. integer individuals attempted to associate with a swarm and preferred larger to smaller swarms. In studies with aquatic macrophytes, stickleback larvae and P. flexuosus utilized vegetation as a predation refuge, spending more time within vegetation when under predation threat. The two macroalgal species studied, bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and stonewort Chara tomentosa, were preferred by P. flexuosus, whereas Eurasian watermilfoil Myriophyllum spicatum was strongly avoided by N. integer and stickleback larvae. In fact, when in dense patches in aquaria, M. spicatum caused acute and high mortality (> 70%) in littoral mysids, but not in sticklebacks, whereas C. tomentosa and northern watermilfoil M. sibiricum did not. In contrast, only 2-4% mortality in N. integer was observed with intact and broken stems of M. spicatum in field experiments. The distribution of littoral mysids in different vegetations, however, suggests that N. integer avoids areas vegetated by M. spicatum.