Three Essays on the Volatility of Finnish Stock Returns (summary section only)

First, in Essay 1, we test whether it is possible to forecast Finnish Options Index return volatility by examining the out-of-sample predictive ability of several common volatility models with alternative well-known methods; and find additional evidence for the predictability of volatility and for the superiority of the more complicated models over the simpler ones. Secondly, in Essay 2, the aggregated volatility of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange is decomposed into a market, industry-and firm-level component, and it is found that firm-level (i.e., idiosyncratic) volatility has increased in time, is more substantial than the two former, predicts GDP growth, moves countercyclically and as well as the other components is persistent. Thirdly, in Essay 3, we are among the first in the literature to seek for firm-specific determinants of idiosyncratic volatility in a multivariate setting, and find for the cross-section of stocks listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange that industrial focus, trading volume, and block ownership, are positively associated with idiosyncratic volatility estimates––obtained from both the CAPM and the Fama and French three-factor model with local and international benchmark portfolios––whereas a negative relation holds between firm age as well as size and idiosyncratic volatility.

Pre-maps : An Educational Programme for Reading Tactile Maps

It is demanding for children with visual impairment to become aware of the world beyond their immediate experience. They need to learn to control spatial experiences as a whole and understand the relationships between objects, surfaces and themselves. Tactile maps can be an excellent source of information for depicting space and environment. By means of tactile maps children can develop their spatial understanding more efficiently than through direct travel experiences supplemented with verbal explanations. Tactile maps can help children when they are learning to understand environmental, spatial, and directional concepts. The ability to read tactile maps is not self-evident; it is a skill, which must be learned. The main research question was: can children who are visually impaired learn to read tactile maps at the preschool age if they receive structural teaching? The purpose of this study was to develop an educational program for preschool children with visual impairment, the aim of which was to teach them to read tactile maps in order to strengthen their orientation skills and to encourage them to explore the world beyond their immediate experience. The study is a multiple case study describing the development of the map program consisting of eight learning tasks. The program was developed with one preschooler who was blind, and subsequently the program was implemented with three other children. Two of the children were blind from birth, one child had lost her vision at the age of two, and one child had low vision. The program was implemented in a normal preschool. Another objective of the pre-map program was to teach the preschooler with visual impairment to understand the concept of a map. The teaching tools were simple, map-like representations called pre-maps. Before a child with visual impairment can read a comprehensive tactile map, it is important to learn to understand map symbols, and how a three-dimensional model changes to a two-dimensional tactile map. All teaching sessions were videotaped; the results are based on the analysis of the videotapes. Two of the children completed the program successfully, and learned to read a tactile map. The two other children felt happy during the sessions, but it was problematic for them to engage fully in the instruction. One of the two eventually completed the program, while the other developed predominantly emerging skills. The results of the children's performances and the positive feedback from the teachers, assistants and the parents proved that this pre-map program is appropriate teaching material for preschool children who are visually impaired. The program does not demand high-level expertise; also parents, preschool teachers, and school assistants can carry out the program.

Visuaalis-spatiaalisten työmuistivalmiuksien yhteys (esi)matemaattisiin taitoihin ja merkitys osana matemaattisilta taidoiltaan heikkojen lasten ja nuorten kognitiivista profiilia

Tämän itsenäisistä osatutkimuksista koostuvan tutkimussarjan tavoitteena oli pyrkiä täydentämään kuvaa matemaattisilta taidoiltaan heikkojen lasten ja nuorten tiedonkäsittelyvalmiuksista selvittämällä, ovatko visuaalis-spatiaaliset työmuistivalmiudet yhteydessä matemaattiseen suoriutumiseen. Teoreettinen viitekehys rakentui Baddeleyn (1986, 1997) kolmikomponenttimallin ympärille. Työmuistikäsitys oli kuitenkin esikuvaansa laajempi sisällyttäen visuaalis-spatiaaliseen työmuistiin Cornoldin ja Vecchin (2003) termein sekä passiiviset varastotoiminnot että aktiiviset prosessointitoiminnot. Yhteyksiä työmuistin ja matemaattisten taitojen välillä tarkasteltiin viiden eri osatutkimuksen avulla. Kaksi ensimmäistä keskittyivät alle kouluikäisten lukukäsitteen hallinnan ja visuaalis-spatiaalisten työmuistivalmiuksen tutkimiseen ja kolme jälkimmäistä peruskoulun yhdeksäsluokkalaisten matemaattisten taitojen ja visuaalis-spatiaalisten työmuistitaitojen välisten yhteyksien selvittämiseen. Tutkimussarjan avulla pyrittiin selvittämään, ovatko visuaalis-spatiaaliset työmuistivalmiudet yhteydessä matemaattiseen suoriutumiseen sekä esi- että yläkouluiässä (osatutkimukset I, II, III, IV, V), onko yhteys spesifi rajoittuen tiettyjen visuaalis-spatiaalisten valmiuksien ja matemaattisen suoriutumisen välille vai onko se yleinen koskien matemaattisia taitoja ja koko visuaalis-spatiaalista työmuistia (osatutkimukset I, II, III, IV, V) tai työmuistia laajemmin (osatutkimukset II, III) sekä onko yhteys työmuistispesifi vai selitettävissä älykkyyden kaltaisella yleisellä päättelykapasiteetilla (osatutkimukset I, II, IV). Tutkimussarjan tulokset osoittavat, että kyky säilyttää ja käsitellä hetkellisesti visuaalis-spatiaalista informaatiota on yhteydessä matemaattiseen suoriutumiseen eikä yhteyttä voida selittää yksinomaan joustavalla älykkyydellä. Suoriutuminen visuaalis-spatiaalista työmuistia mittaavissa tehtävissä on yhteydessä sekä alle kouluikäisten esimatemaattisten taitojen hallintaan että peruskoulun yhdeksäsluokkalaisten matematiikan taitoihin. Matemaattisilta taidoiltaan heikkojen lasten ja nuorten visuaalis-spatiaalisten työmuistiresurssien heikkoudet vaikuttavat kuitenkin olevan sangen spesifejä rajoittuen tietyntyyppisissä muistitehtävissä vaadittaviin valmiuksiin; kaikissa visuaalis-spatiaalisen työmuistin valmiuksia mittaavissa tehtävissä suoriutuminen ei ole yhteydessä matemaattisiin taitoihin. Työmuistivalmiuksissa ilmenevät erot sekä alle kouluikäisten että kouluikäisten matemaattisilta taidoiltaan heikkojen ja normaalisuoriutujien välillä näyttävät olevan kuitenkin jossain määrin yhteydessä kielellisiin taitoihin viitaten vaikeuksien tietynlaiseen kasautumiseen; niillä matemaattisesti heikoilla, joilla on myös kielellisiä vaikeuksia, on keskimäärin laajemmat työmuistiheikkoudet. Osalla matematiikassa heikosti suoriutuvista on näin ollen selvästi keskimääräistä heikommat visuaalis-spatiaaliset työmuistivalmiudet, ja tämä heikkous saattaa olla yksi mahdollinen syy tai vaikeuksia lisäävä tekijä heikon matemaattisen suoriutumisen taustalla. Visuaalis-spatiaalisen työmuistin heikkous merkitsee konkreettisesti vähemmän mentaalista prosessointitilaa, joka rajoittaa oppimista ja suoritustilanteita. Tiedonkäsittelyvalmiuksien heikkous liittyy nimenomaan oppimisnopeuteen, ei asioiden opittavuuteen sinänsä. Mikäli oppimisympäristö ottaa huomioon valmiuksien rajallisuuden, työmuistiheikkoudet eivät todennäköisesti estä asioiden oppimista sinänsä. Avainsanat: Työmuisti, visuaalis-spatiaalinen työmuisti, matemaattiset taidot, lukukäsite, matematiikan oppimisvaikeudet

Reformin implementaatio - Michael Fullanin teoriaan perustuva muutosteoreettisten tekijöiden sisällönanalyyttinen tarkastelu Kelpo-kehittämistoiminnan kunnallisten koordinaattoreiden puheessa

The educational reform, launched in Finland in 2008, concerns the implementation of the Special Education Strategy (Opetusministeriö 2007) under an improvement initiative called Kelpo. One of the main proposed alterations of the Strategy relates to the support system of comprehensive school pupils. The existed two-level model (general and special support) is to be altered by the new three-level model (general, intensified and special support). There are 233 municipalities involved nationwide in the Kelpo initiative, each of which has a municipal coordinator as a national delegate. The Centre for Educational Assessment [the Centre] at the University of Helsinki, led by Professor Jarkko Hautamäki, carries out the developmental assessment of the initiative’s developmental process. As a part of that assessment the Centre interviewed 151 municipal coordinators in November 2008. This thesis considers the Kelpo initiative from Michael Fullan’s change theory’s aspect. The aim is to identify the change theoretical factors in the speech of the municipal coordinators interviewed by the Centre, and to constitute a view of what the crucial factors in the reform implementation process are. The appearance of the change theoretical factors, in the coordinators’ speech, and the meaning of these appearances are being considered from the change process point of view. The Centre collected the data by interviewing the municipal coordinators (n=151) in small groups of 4-11 people. The interview method was based on Vesala and Rantanen’s (2007) qualitative attitude survey method which was adapted and evolved for the Centre’s developmental assessment by Hilasvuori. The method of the analysis was a qualitative theory-based content analysis, processed using the Atlas.ti software. The theoretical frame of reference was grounded on Fullan’s change theory and the analysis was based on three change theoretical categories: implementation, cooperation and perspectives in the change process. The analysis of the interview data revealed spoken expressions in the coordinators’ speech which were either positively or negatively related to the theoretical categories. On the grounds of these change theoretical relations the existence of the change process was observed. The crucial factors of reform implementation were found, and the conclusion is that the encounter of the new reform-based and already existing strategies in school produces interface challenges. These challenges are particularly confronted in the context of the implementation of the new three-level support model. The interface challenges are classified as follows: conceptual, method-based, action-based and belief-based challenges. Keywords: reform, implementation, change process, Michael Fullan, Kelpo, intensified support, special support

Lastensuojelun sosiaalityö asiakirjoina : Dokumentoinnin ja tiedonmuodostuksen dynamiikka

Tutkimuksen keskeinen tehtävä on selvittää, mikä on dokumentoinnin merkitys lastensuojelun sosiaalityön tiedonmuodostuksessa ja ammattikäytännöissä. Asiakirjateksteistä koostuvaa tutkimusaineistoa tarkastellaan kolmesta eri suunnasta kysymällä: 1)Miten asiakirjoja kirjoitetaan? 2) Mitä asiakirjoihin kirjoitetaan? 3) Miksi asiakirjoja kirjoitetaan niin kuin kirjoitetaan? Tutkimusaineisto muodostuu lastensuojelun sosiaalityöntekijöiden laatimista asiakastietojärjestelmään tallennetuista muistiinpanoista ja huostaanottopäätöksistä. Tutkimukseen on valittu 20 huostaanotetun eri-ikäisen lapsen ja heidän perheensä asiakirjat yhteensä 1613 asiakirjatulostussivua. Tekstit ajoittuvat vuodesta 1989 vuoteen 2000. Tutkimusmenetelmä on diskurssianalyyttinen ja tukeutuu Fairclough`n (1997)esittämään kolmiulotteiseen malliin, jossa diskurssi määritellään tekstin, käytäntöjen ja sosiokulttuurisen ympäristön suhteeksi. Diskurssianalyysi on näiden rakenteiden ja niiden välisten suhteiden kuvaamista, tulkintaa ja selittämistä. Fairclough’n mallia mukaillen tutkimuksen analyysi koostuu retoriikan ja tematiikan analyyseistä sekä pragmatiikan näkökulman sisältävästä tarkastelusta. Asiakirjatekstien pilkkominen puhujakategorioihin osoitti tekstien olevan moniäänisiä, useiden henkilöiden näkemyksiä ja mielipiteitä sisältäviä tekstipintoja. Retoriikan analyysi näytti, että lastensuojelun sosiaalityön asiakirjat sisältävät paljon dynaamisia kuvauksia työstä. Asiakirjojen kirjoittaminen moniäänisiksi tuo tekstiin uskottavuutta, ja se on myös yksi retorinen vaikuttamiskeino. Tematiikan tarkastelu osoitti,että asiakirjojen sisällölliset teemat (lapsen hoiva, arjen hallinta, yhteistyö ja päihteiden käyttö) ja kokemukselliset teemat (huoli, vastuu, yhteys ja moraali) toistuvat sisäkkäisinä ja päällekkäisinä säikeinä dynaamisesti vaihdellen. Sosiaalityöntekijät kirjaavat teksteihin monia yhtäaikaisia teemoja, joiden avulla rakentavat ammatillista ymmärrystä kyseessä olevasta tilanteesta. Asiakirjojen tutkiminen pragmatiikan suunnasta toi esiin, kirjoittamisen ja lukemisen kontekstiulottuvuudet sekä tiedonmuodostusprosessin. Asiakirjojen laatiminen on osa sosiaalityön käytäntöjä. Se on myös keskeinen alue ammattikunnan yhteisen ammatillisen ymmärryksen luomisessa ja ylläpitämisessä. Muistiinpanot, huostaanottopäätökset ja lakitekstit ovat intertekstuaalisia. Lastensuojelun sosiaalityön asiakirjojen tutkiminen on avannut uusia mahdollisuuksia ymmärtää sosiaalityön dokumentointiprosessia, merkitystä ja roolia sekä tiedonmuodostuksen dynamiikkaa. Tekstien kirjoittaminen, niiden lukeminen, tietojen siirtäminen ja asiakkaan kuuleminen samoin kuin kuulemisen kirjaaminen ovat sosiaalityön dokumentoinnin keskeisiä haasteita. Tutkimus pyrkii avaamaan ymmärrystä asiakirjatekstien monivivahteiseen ja dynaamiseen maailmaan ja siten myös sosiaalityön dokumentoinnin arkeen. Tarkastelut mahdollistavat työn kehittämisen erityisesti sosiaalityön asiakasvaikuttavuuden mittaamisen ja parantamisen suuntaan. Asiakirjoissa ilmenevä tiedonmuodostuksen dynamiikka syntyy kirjoittamiskäytäntöjen, kirjoittamisen ja lukemisen sekä toimintakäytäntöjen yhteisessä alueessa. Avainsanat: sosiaalityö, lastensuojelu, dokumentointi, asiakirja, diskurssianalyysi, tiedonmuodostus.

Opettajien roolit alakoulun samanaikaisopetuksessa

Teachers work is changing from independent work towards a collegial cooperation, and one form of cooperation can be co-teaching. Co-teaching is also discussed in the three level model of supporting in Special education strategy (Ministry of Education 2007). Efforts have been made to increase co-teaching in Helsinki with the help of a merit pay system. The purpose of this study is to describe teachers' roles in planning, implementing and evaluating co-teaching and to resolve how teachers have ended up with these roles, what advantages and disadvantages there are in different roles and what kind of roles are experienced meaningful. This study is made from a class teacher or a special class teacher point of view. The research material was collected using a qualitative web-inquiry in Autumn 2010. The questionnaire was answered by 35 teachers. The material was studied using content analysis methods. Three different co-teaching roles were formed on the basis of the research material. These roles differ in the way of dividing responsibility of planning and implementing co-teaching. Responsibility Sharers divided the responsibility evenly, Primary Responsible had one teacher with main responsibility and Single Responsible had only one teacher having all the responsibility of planning and teaching. The more responsibility the class teacher had, the more the special education teacher was limited to answer for students with special needs. Distribution of work with Responsibility Sharers was mostly based on good cooperation, while Primary Responsible and Single Responsible had work distribution mostly affected by absence of common planning time. The most satisfied with their co-teaching roles were the Responsibility Sharers, while the Single Responsible were the most unhappy group. However, it seems that individuals' persona affects to what kind of co-teaching was experienced meaningful.

The Unable Individual : The Actantial Analyses of Three Chinese Films and Discussion on Their Representations of the Individual’s Position in Contemporary Chinese Society

The thesis studies three contemporary Chinese films, Incense (Xianghuo 2003), Beijing Bicycle (Shiqi sui de danche, 2001), and South of the Clouds (Yun de nanfang, 2004). The aim of the thesis is to find out how these films represent the individual, his relationships with others, and his possibilities in society. The films all portray a male individual setting out to pursue a goal, facing one obstacle after the other in the process, and in the end failing to achieve his goal. The other characters in the films are also primarily either unable or unwilling to help the lead character. In the thesis these features of the films are analysed by applying A.J. Greimas’s structuralist semiotic theory about the actantial structure of discourses. The questions about the individual’s position are answered by defining which instances in the films actually represent the actantial positions of the sender, receiver, subject, object, helper and opponent. The results of the actantial analyses of the three films are further discussed in the light of theories regarding individualization. The focus is on the theories of Ulrich Beck, Elisabeth Beck-Gernsheim and Zygmunt Bauman, who see a development towards individualization in societies following the disintegration of traditional social structures. For the most part, these theories do seem to be applicable to the films’ representations of the individual’s position, especially regarding the increased responsibility of the individual. For example, the position of the family is represented as either insignificant or negative in all of the films, which fits with the description of the individualized society, contradicting the idea of traditional Chinese society. On the other hand, the identities and goals of the characters in the films are not represented as fragmented in the way the theories would suggest.

Collaborative Design in a Virtual Learning Environment : Three Design Experiments in Textile Teacher Education

The aim of the study was to analyze and facilitate collaborative design in a virtual learning environment (VLE). Discussions of virtual design in design education have typically focused on technological or communication issues, not on pedagogical issues. Yet in order to facilitate collaborative design, it is also necessary to address the pedagogical issues related to the virtual design process. In this study, the progressive inquiry model of collaborative designing was used to give a structural level of facilitation to students working in the VLE. According to this model, all aspects of inquiry, such as creating the design context, constructing a design idea, evaluating the idea, and searching for new information, can be shared in a design community. The study consists of three design projects: 1) designing clothes for premature babies, 2) designing conference bags for an international conference, and 3) designing tactile books for visually impaired children. These design projects constituted a continuum of design experiments, each of which highlighted certain perspectives on collaborative designing. The design experiments were organized so that the participants worked in design teams, both face-to-face and virtually. The first design experiment focused on peer collaboration among textile teacher students in the VLE. The second design experiment took into consideration end-users needs by using a participatory design approach. The third design experiment intensified computer-supported collaboration between students and domain experts. The virtual learning environments, in these design experiments, were designed to support knowledge-building pedagogy and progressive inquiry learning. These environments enabled a detailed recording of all computer-mediated interactions and data related to virtual designing. The data analysis was based on qualitative content analysis of design statements in the VLE. This study indicated four crucial issues concerning collaborative design in the VLE in craft and design education. Firstly, using the collaborative design process in craft and design education gives rise to special challenges of building learning communities, creating appropriate design tasks for them, and providing tools for collaborative activities. Secondly, the progressive inquiry model of collaborative designing can be used as a scaffold support for design thinking and for reflection on the design process. Thirdly, participation and distributed expertise can be facilitated by considering the key stakeholders who are related to the design task or design context, and getting them to participate in virtual designing. Fourthly, in the collaborative design process, it is important that team members create and improve visual and technical ideas together, not just agree or disagree about proposed ideas. Therefore, viewing the VLE as a medium for collaborative construction of the design objects appears crucial in order to understand and facilitate the complex processes in collaborative designing.

Digital elevation model error in terrain analysis

Digital elevation models (DEMs) have been an important topic in geography and surveying sciences for decades due to their geomorphological importance as the reference surface for gravita-tion-driven material flow, as well as the wide range of uses and applications. When DEM is used in terrain analysis, for example in automatic drainage basin delineation, errors of the model collect in the analysis results. Investigation of this phenomenon is known as error propagation analysis, which has a direct influence on the decision-making process based on interpretations and applications of terrain analysis. Additionally, it may have an indirect influence on data acquisition and the DEM generation. The focus of the thesis was on the fine toposcale DEMs, which are typically represented in a 5-50m grid and used in the application scale 1:10 000-1:50 000. The thesis presents a three-step framework for investigating error propagation in DEM-based terrain analysis. The framework includes methods for visualising the morphological gross errors of DEMs, exploring the statistical and spatial characteristics of the DEM error, making analytical and simulation-based error propagation analysis and interpreting the error propagation analysis results. The DEM error model was built using geostatistical methods. The results show that appropriate and exhaustive reporting of various aspects of fine toposcale DEM error is a complex task. This is due to the high number of outliers in the error distribution and morphological gross errors, which are detectable with presented visualisation methods. In ad-dition, the use of global characterisation of DEM error is a gross generalisation of reality due to the small extent of the areas in which the decision of stationarity is not violated. This was shown using exhaustive high-quality reference DEM based on airborne laser scanning and local semivariogram analysis. The error propagation analysis revealed that, as expected, an increase in the DEM vertical error will increase the error in surface derivatives. However, contrary to expectations, the spatial au-tocorrelation of the model appears to have varying effects on the error propagation analysis depend-ing on the application. The use of a spatially uncorrelated DEM error model has been considered as a 'worst-case scenario', but this opinion is now challenged because none of the DEM derivatives investigated in the study had maximum variation with spatially uncorrelated random error. Sig-nificant performance improvement was achieved in simulation-based error propagation analysis by applying process convolution in generating realisations of the DEM error model. In addition, typology of uncertainty in drainage basin delineations is presented.

Search for WW and WZ Resonances Decaying to Electron, Missing ET, and Two Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV.

Using data from 2.9  fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Tevatron, we search for resonances decaying into a pair of on-shell gauge bosons, WW or WZ, where one W decays into an electron and a neutrino, and the other boson decays into two jets. We observed no statistically significant excess above the expected standard model background, and we set cross section limits at 95% confidence level on G* (Randall-Sundrum graviton), Z′, and W′ bosons. By comparing these limits to theoretical cross sections, mass exclusion regions for the three particles are derived. The mass exclusion regions for Z′ and W′ are further evaluated as a function of their gauge coupling strength.

Search for WW and WZ Resonances Decaying to Electron, Missing ET, and Two Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV.

Using data from 2.9/fb of integrated luminosity collected with the CDF II detector at the Tevatron, we search for resonances decaying into a pair of on-shell gauge bosons, WW or WZ, where one W decays into an electron and a neutrino, and the other boson decays into two jets. We observed no statistically significant excess above the expected standard model background, and we set cross section limits at 95% confidence level on G*(Randall-Sundrum graviton), Z', and W' bosons. By comparing these limits to theoretical cross sections, mass exclusion regions for the three particles are derived. The mass exclusion regions for Z' and W' are further evaluated as a function of their gauge coupling strength.

Searching the inclusive ℓγE̸T+b-quark signature for radiative top quark decay and non-standard-model processes

In a search for new phenomena in a signature suppressed in the standard model of elementary particles (SM), we compare the inclusive production of events containing a lepton, a photon, significant transverse momentum imbalance (MET), and a jet identified as containing a b-quark, to SM predictions. The search uses data produced in proton-antiproton collisions at 1.96 TeV corresponding to 1.9 fb-1 of integrated luminosity taken with the CDF detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. We find 28 lepton+photon+MET+b events versus an expectation of 31.0+4.1/-3.5 events. If we further require events to contain at least three jets and large total transverse energy, simulations predict that the largest SM source is top-quark pair production with an additional radiated photon, ttbar+photon. In the data we observe 16 ttbar+photon candidate events versus an expectation from SM sources of 11.2+2.3/-2.1. Assuming the difference between the observed number and the predicted non-top-quark total is due to SM top quark production, we estimate the ttg cross section to be 0.15 +- 0.08 pb.

Molecular background of three lethal fetal syndromes

This study identified the molecular defects underlying three lethal fetal syndromes. Lethal Congenital Contracture Syndrome 1 (LCCS1, MIM 253310) and Lethal Arthrogryposis with Anterior Horn Cell Disease (LAAHD, MIM 611890) are fetal motor neuron diseases. They affect the nerve cells that control voluntary muscle movement, and eventually result in severe atrophy of spinal cord motor neurons and fetal immobility. Both LCCS1 and LAAHD are caused by mutations in the GLE1 gene, which encodes for a multifunctional protein involved in posttranscriptional mRNA processing. LCCS2 and LCCS3, two syndromes that are clinically similar to LCCS1, are caused by defective proteins involved in the synthesis of inositol hexakisphosphate (IP6), an essential cofactor of GLE1. This suggests a common mechanism behind these fetal motor neuron diseases, and along with accumulating evidence from genetic studies of more late-onset motor neuron diseases such as Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), implicates mRNA processing as a common mechanism in motor neuron disease pathogenesis. We also studied gle1-/- zebrafish in order to investigate whether they would be a good model for studying the pathogenesis of LCCS1 and LAAHD. Mutant zebrafish exhibit cell death in their central nervous system at two days post fertilization, and the distribution of mRNA within the cells of mutant zebrafish differs from controls, encouraging further studies. The third lethal fetal syndrome is described in this study for the first time. Cocoon syndrome (MIM 613630) was discovered in a Finnish family with two affected individuals. Its hallmarks are the encasement of the limbs under the skin, and severe craniofacial abnormalities, including the lack of skull bones. We showed that Cocoon syndrome is caused by a mutation in the gene encoding the conserved helix-loop-helix ubiquitous kinase CHUK, also known as IκB kinase α (IKKα). The mutation results in the complete lack of CHUK protein expression. CHUK is a subunit of the IκB kinase enzyme that inhibits NF-κB transcription factors, but in addition, it has an essential, independent role in controlling keratinocyte differentiation, as well as informing morphogenetic events such as limb and skeletal patterning. CHUK also acts as a tumor suppressor, and is frequently inactivated in cancer. This study has brought significant new information about the molecular background of these three lethal fetal syndromes, as well as provided knowledge about the prerequisites of normal human development.

Methods in general model localization

The aim of this study was to evaluate and test methods which could improve local estimates of a general model fitted to a large area. In the first three studies, the intention was to divide the study area into sub-areas that were as homogeneous as possible according to the residuals of the general model, and in the fourth study, the localization was based on the local neighbourhood. According to spatial autocorrelation (SA), points closer together in space are more likely to be similar than those that are farther apart. Local indicators of SA (LISAs) test the similarity of data clusters. A LISA was calculated for every observation in the dataset, and together with the spatial position and residual of the global model, the data were segmented using two different methods: classification and regression trees (CART) and the multiresolution segmentation algorithm (MS) of the eCognition software. The general model was then re-fitted (localized) to the formed sub-areas. In kriging, the SA is modelled with a variogram, and the spatial correlation is a function of the distance (and direction) between the observation and the point of calculation. A general trend is corrected with the residual information of the neighbourhood, whose size is controlled by the number of the nearest neighbours. Nearness is measured as Euclidian distance. With all methods, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were lower, but with the methods that segmented the study area, the deviance in single localized RMSEs was wide. Therefore, an element capable of controlling the division or localization should be included in the segmentation-localization process. Kriging, on the other hand, provided stable estimates when the number of neighbours was sufficient (over 30), thus offering the best potential for further studies. Even CART could be combined with kriging or non-parametric methods, such as most similar neighbours (MSN).

Aspiration-based utility functions in a planning model for timber flow management.

The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.