Aspiration-based utility functions in a planning model for timber flow management.

The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.

A participatory approach to tactical forest planning.

The paper examines the needs, premises and criteria for effective public participation in tactical forest planning. A method for participatory forest planning utilizing the techniques of preference analysis, professional expertise and heuristic optimization is introduced. The techniques do not cover the whole process of participatory planning, but are applied as a tool constituting the numerical core for decision support. The complexity of multi-resource management is addressed by hierarchical decision analysis which assesses the public values, preferences and decision criteria toward the planning situation. An optimal management plan is sought using heuristic optimization. The plan can further be improved through mutual negotiations, if necessary. The use of the approach is demonstrated with an illustrative example, it's merits and challenges for participatory forest planning and decision making are discussed and a model for applying it in general forest planning context is depicted. By using the approach, valuable information can be obtained about public preferences and the effects of taking them into consideration on the choice of the combination of standwise treatment proposals for a forest area. Participatory forest planning calculations, carried out by the approach presented in the paper, can be utilized in conflict management and in developing compromises between competing interests.

Strike Hard, Strike Sure - Operation Musketeer : British Military Planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

This study analyses British military planning and actions during the Suez Crisis in 1956. It seeks to find military reasons for the change of concepts during the planning and compares these reasons with the tactical doctrines of the time. The thesis takes extensive advantage of military documents preserved in the National Archives, London. In order to expand the understanding of the exchange of views during the planning process, the private papers of high ranking military officials have also been consulted. French military documents preserved in the Service Historique de la Defence, Paris, have provided an important point of comparison. The Suez Crisis caught the British armed forces in the middle of a transition phase. The main objective of the armed forces was to establish a credible deterrence against the Soviet Union. However, due to overseas commitments the Middle East playing a paramount role because of its economic importance the armed forces were compelled to also prepare for Limited War and the Cold War. The armed forces were not fully prepared to meet this demand. The Middle Eastern garrison was being re-organised after the withdrawal from the Canal Base and the concept for a strategic reserve was unimplemented. The tactical doctrines of the time were based on experiences from the Second World War. As a result, the British view of amphibious operations and the subsequent campaigns emphasised careful planning, mastery of the sea and the air, sufficient superiority in numbers and firepower, centralised command and extensive administrative preparations. The British military had realized that Nasser could nationalise the Suez Canal and prepared an outline plan to meet this contingency. Although the plan was nothing more than a concept, it was accepted as a basis for further planning when the Canal was nationalised at the end of July. This plan was short-lived. The nominated Task Force Commanders shifted the landing site from Port Said to Alexandria because it enabled faster expansion of the bridgehead. In addition, further operations towards Cairo the hub of Nasser s power would be easier to conduct. The operational concept can be described as being traditional and was in accordance with the amphibious warfare doctrine. This plan was completely changed at the beginning of September. Apparently, General Charles Keightley, the Commander-in-Chief, and the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee developed the idea of prolonged aerial operations. The essence of the concept was to break the Egyptian will to resist by attacking the oil facilities, the transportation system and the armed forces. This victory through air concept would be supported by carefully planned psychological operations. This concept was in accordance with the Royal Air Force doctrine, which promoted a bomber offensive against selected target categories. General Keightley s plan was accepted despite suspicions at every planning level. The Joint Planning Staff and the Task Force Commanders opposed the concept from the beginning to the end because of its unpredictability. There was no information that suggested the bombing would persuade the Egyptians to submit. This problem was worsened by the fact that British intelligence was unable to provide reliable strategic information. The Task Force Commanders, who were responsible for the tactical plans, were not able to change Keightley s mind, but the concept was expanded to include a traditional amphibious assault on Port Said due to their resistance. The bombing campaign was never tested as the Royal Air Force was denied authorisation to destroy the transportation and oil targets. The Chiefs of Staff and General Keightley were too slow to realise that the execution of the plan depended on the determination of the Prime Minister. However, poor health, a lack of American and domestic support and the indecisiveness of the military had ruined Eden s resolve. In the end, a very traditional amphibious assault, which was bound to succeed at the tactical level but fail at the strategic level, was launched against Port Said.

Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Owner-driven decision support in holding-specific forest planning

Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

Toiminta, valta ja kokemus organisaation muutoksessa : Tutkimus kolmesta suuryrityksestä

Action, Power and Experience in Organizational Change - A Study of Three Major Corporations This study explores change management and resistance to change as social activities and power displays through worker experiences in three major Finnish corporations. Two important sensitizing concepts were applied. Firstly, Richard Sennett's perspective on work in the new form of capitalism, and its shortcomings - the lack of commitment and freedom accompanied by the disruption to lifelong career planning and the feeling of job insecurity - offered a fruitful starting point for a critical study. Secondly, Michel Foucault's classical concept of power, treated as anecdotal, interactive and nonmeasurable, provided tools for analyzing change-enabling and resisting acts. The study bridges the gap between management and social sciences. The former have usually concentrated on leadership issues, best practices and goal attainment, while the latter have covered worker experiences, power relations and political conflicts. The study was motivated by three research questions. Firstly, why people resist or support changes in their work, work environment or organization, and the kind of analyses these behavioural choices are based on. Secondly, the kind of practical forms which support for, and resistance to change take, and how people choose the different ways of acting. Thirdly, how the people involved experience and describe their own subject position and actions in changing environments. The examination focuses on practical interpretations and action descriptions given by the members of three major Finnish business organizations. The empirical data was collected during a two-year period in the Finnish Post Corporation, the Finnish branch of Vattenfal Group, one of the leading European energy companies, and the Mehiläinen Group, the leading private medical service provider in Finland. It includes 154 non-structured thematic interviews and 309 biographies concentrating on personal experiences of change. All positions and organizational levels were represented. The analysis was conducted using the grounded theory method introduced by Straus and Corbin in three sequential phases, including open, axial and selective coding processes. As a result, there is a hierarchical structure of categories, which is summarized in the process model of change behaviour patterns. Key ingredients are past experiences and future expectations which lead to different change relations and behavioural roles. Ultimately, they contribute to strategic and tactical choices realized as both public and hidden forms of action. The same forms of action can be used in both supporting and resisting change, and there are no specific dividing lines either between employer and employee roles or between different hierarchical positions. In general, however, it is possible to conclude that strategic choices lead more often to public forms of action, whereas tactical choices result in hidden forms. The primary goal of the study was to provide knowledge which has practical applications in everyday business life, HR and change management. The results, therefore, are highly applicable to other organizations as well as to less change-dominated situations, whenever power relations and conflicting interests are present. A sociological thesis on classical business management issues can be of considerable value in revealing the crucial social processes behind behavioural patterns. Keywords: change management, organizational development, organizational resistance, resistance to change, change management, labor relations, organization, leadership

United We Stand - Divided We Fall : A Standard Model of Unit Cohesion

Research on unit cohesion has shown positive correlations between cohesion and valued outcomes such as strong performance, reduced stress, less indiscipline, and high re-enlistment intentions. However, the correlations have varied in strength and significance. The purpose of this study is to show that taking into consideration the multi-component nature of cohesion and relating the most applicable components to specific outcomes could resolve much of the inconsistency. Unit cohesion is understood as a process of social integration among members of a primary group with its leaders, and with the larger secondary groups of which they are a part. Correspondingly, included in the framework are four bonding components: horizontal (peer) and vertical (subordinate and leader) and organizational and institutional, respectively. The data were collected as part of a larger research project on cohesion, leadership, and personal adjustment to the military. In all, 1,534 conscripts responded to four questionnaires during their service in 2001-2002. In addition, sociometric questionnaires were given to 537 group members in 47 squads toward the end of their service. The results showed that platoons with strong primary-group cohesion differed from other platoons in terms of performance, training quality, secondary-group experiences, and attitudes toward refresher training. On the sociometric level it was found that soldiers who were chosen as friends by others were more likely to have higher expected performance, better performance ratings, more positive attitudes toward military service, higher levels of well-being during conscript service, and fewer exemptions from duty during it. On the group level, the selection of the respondents own group leader rather than naming a leader from outside (i.e., leader bonding) had a bearing not only on cohesion and performance, but also on the social, attitudinal, and behavioral criteria. Overall, the aim of the study was to contribute to the research on cohesion by introducing a model that takes into account the primary foci of bonding and their impact. The results imply that primary-group and secondary-group bonding processes are equally influential in explaining individual and group performance, whereas the secondary-group bonding components are far superior in explaining career intentions, personal growth, avoidance of duty, and attitudes toward refresher training and national defense. This should be considered in the planning and conducting of training. The main conclusion is that the different types of cohesion components have a unique, positive, significant, but varying impact on a wide range of criteria, confirming the need to match the components with the specific criteria.