Computing the Stochastic Complexity of Simple Probabilistic Graphical Models

Minimum Description Length (MDL) is an information-theoretic principle that can be used for model selection and other statistical inference tasks. There are various ways to use the principle in practice. One theoretically valid way is to use the normalized maximum likelihood (NML) criterion. Due to computational difficulties, this approach has not been used very often. This thesis presents efficient floating-point algorithms that make it possible to compute the NML for multinomial, Naive Bayes and Bayesian forest models. None of the presented algorithms rely on asymptotic analysis and with the first two model classes we also discuss how to compute exact rational number solutions.

Matrix Decomposition Methods for Data Mining : Computational Complexity and Algorithms

Matrix decompositions, where a given matrix is represented as a product of two other matrices, are regularly used in data mining. Most matrix decompositions have their roots in linear algebra, but the needs of data mining are not always those of linear algebra. In data mining one needs to have results that are interpretable -- and what is considered interpretable in data mining can be very different to what is considered interpretable in linear algebra. --- The purpose of this thesis is to study matrix decompositions that directly address the issue of interpretability. An example is a decomposition of binary matrices where the factor matrices are assumed to be binary and the matrix multiplication is Boolean. The restriction to binary factor matrices increases interpretability -- factor matrices are of the same type as the original matrix -- and allows the use of Boolean matrix multiplication, which is often more intuitive than normal matrix multiplication with binary matrices. Also several other decomposition methods are described, and the computational complexity of computing them is studied together with the hardness of approximating the related optimization problems. Based on these studies, algorithms for constructing the decompositions are proposed. Constructing the decompositions turns out to be computationally hard, and the proposed algorithms are mostly based on various heuristics. Nevertheless, the algorithms are shown to be capable of finding good results in empirical experiments conducted with both synthetic and real-world data.

From Francovich to Köbler and beyond : The evolution of a State liability regime for the EC

The aim of this paper is to present the evolution of the Francovich doctrine within the European legal order. The first part deals with the gradual development of the ECJ's case law on State liability in damages for breach of EC law. Starting from the seminal Francovich and Brasserie du Pêcheur, the clarification of the criteria set by the Court is attempted with reference to subsequent case law, whereas issues concerning the extent and form of the compensation owned are also mentioned. The second part concerns one of the more recent developments in the field, namely State liability for breaches of Community law attributed to national judiciary. The Court's ruling in Köbler is examined in connection with two other recent judgments, namely Commission v. Italy of 2003 and Kühne & Heitz, as an attempt of the ECJ to reframe its relationships with national supreme courts and appropriate for itself the position of the Supreme Court in the European legal order. The implications on State liability claims by the ruling in Commission v. France of 1997 constitute the theme of the third part, where it is submitted that Member States can also be held liable for disregard of Community law by private individuals within their respected territories. To this extent, Schmidberger is viewed as a manifestation of this opinion, with fundamental rights acquiring a new dimension, being invoked by the States, contra the individuals as a shield to liability claims. Finally, the third part examines the relationship between the Francovich doctrine and the principle of legal certainty and concludes that the solutions employed by the ECJ have been both predictable and acceptable by the national legal orders. Keywords: State liability, damages, Francovich, Köbler, Schmidberger

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy under a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime

This licentiate's thesis analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate regime, assuming that the government spends exclusively on domestically produced goods. The motivation for this research comes from the observation that the literature on the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) has focused almost exclusively on two-country global models and the analyses of the effects of fiscal policy on small economies are almost completely ignored. This thesis aims at filling in the gap in the NOEM literature and illustrates how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on the specification of preferences. The research method is to present two theoretical model that are extensions to the model contained in the Appendix to Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). The first model analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, making use of a model that exploits the idea of modelling private and government consumption as substitutes in private utility. The model offers intuitive predictions on how the effects of fiscal policy depend on the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The findings illustrate that the higher the substitutability between private and government consumption, (i) the bigger is the crowding out effect on private consumption (ii) and the smaller is the positive effect on output. The welfare analysis shows that the less fiscal policy decreases welfare the higher is the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The second model of this thesis studies how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy depend on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. This model reveals that this elasticity a key variable to explain the exchange rate, current account and output response to a permanent rise in government spending. Finally, the model demonstrates that temporary changes in government spending are an effective stabilization tool when used wisely and timely in response to undesired fluctuations in output. Undesired fluctuations in output can be perfectly offset by an opposite change in government spending without causing any side-effects.

Linguistic grammars with very low complexity

We have presented an overview of the FSIG approach and related FSIG gram- mars to issues of very low complexity and parsing strategy. We ended up with serious optimism according to which most FSIG grammars could be decom- posed in a reasonable way and then processed efficiently.

Oligarchs, political regime changes, and firm valuation

This paper examines the impact of a regime shift on the valuation of politically powerful oligarch firms. Focusing on the Yeltsin-Putin regime shift in Russia, we find that the valuations of outside shareholders claims are significantly higher under the Putin regime than under the Yeltsin regime after controlling for industry and time effects. The findings suggest that the increasing cost of extracting private benefits outweigh the reduction in the value of political connections following the political regime change. The results are also consistent with changes in the risk of state expropriation. Our results show that effects driven by the political regime change complement the traditional view stating that increased ownership concentration improved the performance of Russian oligarch firms.

Language universals and linguistic complexity : Three case studies in core argument marking

In this dissertation I study language complexity from a typological perspective. Since the structuralist era, it has been assumed that local complexity differences in languages are balanced out in cross-linguistic comparisons and that complexity is not affected by the geopolitical or sociocultural aspects of the speech community. However, these assumptions have seldom been studied systematically from a typological point of view. My objective is to define complexity so that it is possible to compare it across languages and to approach its variation with the methods of quantitative typology. My main empirical research questions are: i) does language complexity vary in any systematic way in local domains, and ii) can language complexity be affected by the geographical or social environment? These questions are studied in three articles, whose findings are summarized in the introduction to the dissertation. In order to enable cross-language comparison, I measure complexity as the description length of the regularities in an entity; I separate it from difficulty, focus on local instead of global complexity, and break it up into different types. This approach helps avoid the problems that plagued earlier metrics of language complexity. My approach to grammar is functional-typological in nature, and the theoretical framework is basic linguistic theory. I delimit the empirical research functionally to the marking of core arguments (the basic participants in the sentence). I assess the distributions of complexity in this domain with multifactorial statistical methods and use different sampling strategies, implementing, for instance, the Greenbergian view of universals as diachronic laws of type preference. My data come from large and balanced samples (up to approximately 850 languages), drawn mainly from reference grammars. The results suggest that various significant trends occur in the marking of core arguments in regard to complexity and that complexity in this domain correlates with population size. These results provide evidence that linguistic patterns interact among themselves in terms of complexity, that language structure adapts to the social environment, and that there may be cognitive mechanisms that limit complexity locally. My approach to complexity and language universals can therefore be successfully applied to empirical data and may serve as a model for further research in these areas.

Behavioural responses to anthropogenic disturbances

When a habitat undergoes change, the first response of an individual is often behavioural adjustment. This immediate response can determine whether the population will survive or not, as behavioural flexibility gives time for genetic changes to arise later on. Habitat changes that alter reproductive behaviours can have long-lasting effects on populations. If the selective regime has changed under the new conditions, mate choice cues may no longer reliably reflect an individual s quality. Thus, animals have to be able to adjust their reproductive behaviours to the local conditions. The aim of my thesis was to discuss if and how animals are able to respond to rapid anthropogenic environmental change, and to study the mechanisms of the responses and the evolutionary consequences. The main focus was on the effects of human-induced eutrophication on the reproductive behaviour of fishes. Eutrophication is the result of increased nutrient input and can cause dense underwater vegetation and algal blooms. I used fishes from two very different ecosystems as model species, the Baltic Sea threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and the desert goby (Chlamydogobius eremius), an endemic species of the Lake Eyre region in Central Australia. I investigated the effects of increased habitat complexity on courtship behaviour and the possibility of local differentiation in courtship and nest building behaviour depending on the level eutrophication in the habitat of origin. Furthermore, I observed the effect of turbidity on stickleback nest building behaviour. The results show that threespine stickleback males, which were born in areas that have been eutrophied for decades, court females at a higher intensity than males from clear water areas. Similarly, male desert gobies increased their courtship effort in dense vegetation. Intense courtship could be an adjustment to reduced visibility and lowered predation risk in the densely vegetated sites. However, there were no clear differences in nest building between males from clear and eutrophied areas under standardized conditions. This was expected as Baltic Sea sticklebacks prefer to nest under vegetation cover and are fairly rigid in adjusting their nest characteristics. Nest building was affected by increased turbidity: males built smaller nests with a larger nest entrance in turbid water. The large variation in the magnitude of phytoplankton blooms may require a rapid adjustment of the optimal nest structure to the current conditions. This thesis highlights the complex interactions that are set- off by human-induced changes in habitats and are followed by the immediate behavioural responses. It also encourages more research to tease apart the phenotypic and genetic components of the observed behavioural differences.