Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Studies of electronic structure by x-ray Raman and emission spectroscopy: applications to MgB2 superconductors and high pressure physics

X-ray Raman scattering and x-ray emission spectroscopies were used to study the electronic properties and phase transitions in several condensed matter systems. The experimental work, carried out at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility, was complemented by theoretical calculations of the x-ray spectra and of the electronic structure. The electronic structure of MgB2 at the Fermi level is dominated by the boron σ and π bands. The high density of states provided by these bands is the key feature of the electronic structure contributing to the high critical temperature of superconductivity in MgB2. The electronic structure of MgB2 can be modified by atomic substitutions, which introduce extra electrons or holes into the bands. X ray Raman scattering was used to probe the interesting σ and π band hole states in pure and aluminum substituted MgB2. A method for determining the final state density of electron states from experimental x-ray Raman scattering spectra was examined and applied to the experimental data on both pure MgB2 and on Mg(0.83)Al(0.17)B2. The extracted final state density of electron states for the pure and aluminum substituted samples revealed clear substitution induced changes in the σ and π bands. The experimental work was supported by theoretical calculations of the electronic structure and x-ray Raman spectra. X-ray emission at the metal Kβ line was applied to the studies of pressure and temperature induced spin state transitions in transition metal oxides. The experimental studies were complemented by cluster multiplet calculations of the electronic structure and emission spectra. In LaCoO3 evidence for the appearance of an intermediate spin state was found and the presence of a pressure induced spin transition was confirmed. Pressure induced changes in the electronic structure of transition metal monoxides were studied experimentally and were analyzed using the cluster multiplet approach. The effects of hybridization, bandwidth and crystal field splitting in stabilizing the high pressure spin state were discussed. Emission spectroscopy at the Kβ line was also applied to FeCO3 and a pressure induced iron spin state transition was discovered.

Molecular characterization of sediment bacterial communities affected by fish farming

Fish farming introduces nutrients, microbes and a wide variety of chemicals such as heavy metals, antifoulants and antibiotics to the surrounding environment. Introduction of antibiotics has been linked with the increased incidence of antibiotic resistant pathogenic bacteria in the farm vicinities. In this thesis molecular methods such as quantitative PCR and DNA sequencing were applied to analyze bacterial communities in sediments from fish farms and pristine locations. Altogether four farms and four pristine sites were sampled in the Baltic Sea. Two farm and two pristine locations were sampled over a surveillance period of four years. Furthermore, a new methodology was developed as a part of the study that permits amplifying single microbial genomes and capturing them according to any genetic traits, including antibiotic resistance genes. The study revealed that several resistance genes for tetracycline were found at the sediment underneath the aquaculture farms. The copy number of these genes remained elevated even at a farm that had not used any antibiotics since year 2000, six years before this study started. Similarly, an increase in the amount of mercury resistance gene merA was observed at the aquaculture sediment. The persistence of the resistance genes in absence of any selection pressure from antibiotics or heavy metals suggests that the genes may be introduced to the sediment by the farming process. This is also supported by the diversity pattern of the merA gene between farm and pristine sediments. The bacterial community-level changes in response to fish farming were very complex and no single phylogenetic groups were found that would be typical to fish farm sediments. However, the community structures had some correlation with the exposure to fish farming. Our studies suggest that the established approaches to deal with antibiotic resistance at the aquaculture, such as antibiotic cycling, are fundamentally flawed because they cannot prevent the introduction of the resistance genes and resistant bacteria to the farm area by the farming process. Further studies are required to study the entire fish farming process to identify the sources of the resistance genes and the resistant bacteria. The results also suggest that in order to prevent major microbiological changes in the surrounding aquatic environment, the farms should not be founded in shallow water where currents do not transport sedimenting matter from the farms. Finally, the technique to amplify and select microbial genomes will potentially have a considerable impact in microbial ecology and genomics.